Weekly highlights
Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 7% to $2,653/FEU.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4% to $3,810/FEU.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3% to $2,743/FEU.
Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) decreased 5% to $3,637/FEU.
Air rates – Freightos Air Index
China – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $6.41/kg.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 2% to $5.12/kg.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 1% to $2.32/kg.
Analysis
Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open on Friday – followed shortly thereafter with statements that it was closed – led to a brief rush for the exit and many u-turns. Subsequent attacks on vessels in the region as well as US blockade forces taking control of an Iranian cargo ship have meant no real change in the status quo, with the ceasefire expiration approaching and US-Iran negotiations uncertain.
For the container market in the region, operations to and from the Gulf via alternative ocean-landbridge routes remain challenging: Maersk suspending landside bookings for some cross border services to the UAE and out of Salalah. But while some accessible ports like UAE’s Khor Fakkan are congested and some carriers increase surcharges for Mideast feeder services out of India, other ports like Fujairah and Sohar are reportedly operating more smoothly.
The broader container market remains unaffected operationally though fuel costs are still the main concern.
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But while carriers could face significant bunker shortages in the next two or three months if the strait doesn’t reopen; and while there is tight supply, especially for low sulfur fuel, in some important Asian hubs including Singapore; early reports of real shortages in places like Singapore may have been overstated, and in general terms there is still enough bunker fuel supply in the Far East – for now.
Bunker fuel prices are 55% higher than before the war, but are down 15% from their peak a month ago and have eased 9% since the start of the month. This correction in fuel prices, together with the current seasonally low demand and continued high capacity levels may be combining to limit the overall impact of the crisis on container rates.
During the March – April stretch when freight rates typically ease until the summer peak season demand picks up, fuel surcharges and other price increases this year have indeed put upward pressure on rates. And prices are up year on year for most of the major trades. But carriers have so far mostly not succeeded in pushing rates up to the full announced surcharge or GRI levels.
Transpacific rates ticked up again last week, and are about $800/FEU higher than before the war for both coasts, but nonetheless remain below their levels reached ahead of Lunar New Year. Rates from Asia – N. Europe of about $2,700/FEU are just 9% higher than at the end of February, and Asia – Mediterranean prices that climbed in March are now 5% lower than before the war. Rates on both lanes are down more than 11% so far in April amid reports of ongoing discounting, though some carriers are nonetheless announcing additional GRIs for May.
Barring a significant spike in fuel prices or an actual shortage in fuel supply and availability, rate behavior since the start of the war may indicate that the chances of significant spot rate increases are slim until peak season. And in the background is the possibility that the war and its impact on inflation rates could subdue consumer demand and peak season container volumes with it.
Jet fuel prices remain double their pre-war level, but have eased 12% since the start of the month. Nonetheless, the high carrier costs of flying has led almost all of the top 20 airlines to cancel at least some flights. Real concerns remain around fuel availability as well, with reports of short supply already in some parts of Asia, and estimates that Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel stock left.
Capacity out of the Middle East – mostly from Gulf carriers – continues to recover with Iraq and Bahrain now reopening their airspace as well. DHL estimates that Emirates SkyCargo is back to 80% capacity, but puts the overall recovery level out of Dubai at only 40%.
Capacity recovery, easing fuel prices, reports of drooping volumes, and carriers adding capacity to lanes with high yields, may account for more examples of rates leveling off or easing on some major lanes. The latest S. Asia – Europe price of just below $5.00/kg is down 3% from a week ago, with SEA – Europe rates of $4.80/kg 9% lower, though these prices are still 93% and 43% higher than before the war, respectively.
China – Europe rates of $5.12/kg last week were up 2% week on week and are 50% higher than the $3.50/kg level at the end of February. China – N. America prices were also up 2% to $6.41/kg last week, but are just 7% higher compared to before the start of the war.
