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Ex-Asia ocean rates climb on GRIs, despite slowing demand – October 22, 2025 Update

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Ex-Asia ocean rates climb on GRIs, despite slowing demand – October 22, 2025 Update

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October 22, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 18% to $1,687/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2% to $3,071/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 13% to $1,975/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 1% to $2,147/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices stayed level at $5.34/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 1% to $3.97/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly increased 5% to $1.78/kg.

Analysis

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia following the sharp increase in trade tensions between the countries and just ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in S. Korea at the end of the month.

The White House expressed optimism that the US and China will deescalate from recent steps which included China increasing export controls on rare earth metals and President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese exports starting November 1st. Reports this week also indicate that the US and India are nearing a trade deal that would reduce the US’s current 50% tariffs on Indian exports to around 15%.

In other trade war developments, President Trump signed a proclamation that will impose 10%-25% tariffs on heavy trucks and parts starting November 1st. Alongside this tariff expansion though, the new law also increased tariff offsets for automakers. This move follows an order last month which included a long list of tariff exemptions and authorized some federal agencies to issue tariff exemptions independently.

The past week also saw examples of geopolitical drama directly relevant to the ocean freight market. A US threat to sanction – including via port call fees – countries that vote for an IMO net zero framework may have contributed to the vote being postponed until next year.

And though there are no reports of vessels paying USTR port call fees yet – only one China-built vessel is scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles this week – a US-flagged container ship was charged $1.7m to dock in Shanghai as China’s reciprocal fees also went into effect. Like on the transpacific eastbound, carriers are shifting their deployment of liable vessels to other lanes to avoid the surcharges at China’s ports.

The 145% US tariffs on Chinese goods from early April to mid-May drove a sharp drop in China-US ocean volumes, and a November 1st 100% tariff would likely do the same. But with frontloading to date and November a slow month for ocean freight, there would likely be a smaller volume drop compared to April-May.

Despite reports of lagging demand as the US container market moves further into an early slow season, carrier mid-month GRI introductions, likely helped by tighter capacity reductions, are pushing Asia – N. America rates up. Transpacific prices to the West Coast increased 18% last week from a year to date low of about $1,400/FEU the week before to about $1,700/FEU, with daily rates this week above the $2,000/FEU mark so far. Daily rates to the East Coast of $3,357/FEU are more than $300/FEU higher than a week ago.

Asia – Europe prices climbed 13% last week to about $2,000/FEU on October GRIs as well, with daily rates this week approaching $2,300/FEU. Daily rates to the Mediterranean are also at about $2,300/FEU for a $200/FEU increase compared to the last couple weeks. Price increases on Europe lanes may be partially supported by port congestion made worse by labor disruptions in both Rotterdam and Antwerp last week – though the parties have now settled the Rotterdam dispute and paused Antwerp strikes for at least the next ten days.

These rate increases have pushed prices back to about September levels. But rates climbing during low-demand periods for both Asia-Europe and the transpacific has many observers skeptical that prices will remain elevated, though carriers will attempt November GRIs as well.

Air cargo on the other hand is about to enter the typical East-West peak season period. There are reports that President Trump’s November 1st tariff threat is sparking some frontloading out of China. But Freightos Air Index China-US rates remained level last week at $5.34/kg and are at about $5.40/kg so far this week, possibly reflecting a quick addition of capacity to the lane as more demand materialized.

Continued Asia – Europe volume growth driven by Chinese B2C e-commerce is also being accompanied by capacity growth, keeping China – Europe rates about level with last year, with prices stable at about the $4.00/kg level last week and this. A massive fire at Bangladesh’s Dhaka airport over the weekend destroyed the airport’s cargo center, suspending flights and causing a major setback for the region’s garment trade during its peak season. Flights resumed by Sunday night, with air cargo rates so far unaffected.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The Enterprise Workflow Is Becoming More Important Than the Enterprise Application

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Enterprise software has traditionally been organized around applications. Companies buy an ERP to manage transactions, a WMS to run the warehouse, a TMS to manage transportation, planning applications to build forecasts and plans, and procurement systems to manage sourcing and suppliers. That architecture reflects real functional expertise, but the most important supply chain problems increasingly occur in the workflow that crosses those applications rather than inside any one of them.

The need for an execution architecture makes this shift easier to see. Once the enterprise begins designing the path from signal to decision to action, the unit of analysis is no longer the application; it is the end-to-end workflow. AI strengthens this transition because agents can potentially follow a problem across several systems in a way traditional application-centric automation rarely could.

Operational Problems Ignore Software Boundaries

A supplier failure does not remain a procurement event. It changes inventory exposure, affects production schedules, alters transportation requirements, threatens customer commitments, and may create financial consequences. A late customer order can similarly cross order management, inventory allocation, warehouse execution, transportation, and customer service before it is resolved.

The applications involved may all be performing correctly while the overall process is poor. This is also why I argued that real-time visibility may stop being a standalone market: once visibility becomes embedded in broader workflows, its value increasingly comes from what happens next. That is one reason the move from functional software to decision architectures is important: the enterprise outcome depends on the sequence of decisions across systems, not just the quality of each individual application. Application excellence remains necessary, but it is no longer sufficient.

The Workflow Is Where Context Accumulates

An individual system sees only part of the situation. The TMS may know freight options, the WMS knows inventory and labor, the planning system understands forecast and supply implications, and the ERP contains financial and transactional context. The cross-application workflow is where these perspectives can be combined into a decision that reflects the business rather than one function.

This helps explain the rise of an intelligence layer above ERP, TMS, and WMS platforms. The strategic value of such a layer is not that it replaces those systems, but that it can assemble context and coordinate work across them. AI agents are particularly well suited to this role when they have governed access to enterprise data and tools.

Platforms Gain an Advantage, but Not a Monopoly

The trend also helps explain why supply chain platforms and networks are becoming more strategically important. A platform that already spans planning, execution, visibility, and transactions can reduce the friction involved in moving context across the workflow. That can be a powerful architectural advantage as more decisions become cross-functional.

It does not automatically settle the best-of-breed versus platform argument. A specialized application can still be superior when depth of functionality matters, and many enterprises will continue to operate heterogeneous technology estates. The winning architecture may therefore be a governed hybrid in which specialized applications participate in common workflows rather than behave as isolated destinations.

Standards Matter Because Workflows Need Reach

Emerging approaches such as MCP, A2A, and graph-enhanced AI matter in this context because cross-application workflows require agents to discover tools, exchange information, and understand relationships among entities. Standardized access reduces the bespoke integration burden that has historically made cross-system automation expensive. Graph structures can also help preserve the relationships among orders, inventory, suppliers, customers, facilities, and transportation movements that give an operational event meaning.

However, technical reach does not guarantee operational quality. The workflow still needs business logic, guardrails, escalation paths, and a clear enterprise objective. Technology can make it possible for an agent to touch ten systems, but management has to decide what the agent should accomplish across them.

Workflow Ownership Becomes a Management Issue

This creates an organizational question that many companies have not fully addressed: who owns the cross-functional workflow? Functional leaders own their systems and KPIs, while IT owns much of the integration infrastructure. Yet a disruption-resolution workflow may cut across procurement, planning, transportation, warehouse operations, finance, and customer service without having a single natural owner.

As AI automates more of these paths, workflow ownership will become more important. Someone has to define the objective, resolve competing priorities, determine what can be automated, and measure whether the end-to-end process improves. That responsibility may sit in a control tower, an operations excellence function, a transformation office, or a new type of process owner, but it cannot remain implicit.

From Application Portfolios to Operating Flows

The shift does not mean enterprise applications disappear. It means companies should evaluate them partly by how effectively they participate in operating flows. APIs, event models, permissions, configurability, semantic consistency, and agent access become as important as the features visible inside the user interface because those characteristics determine whether the application can participate in automated decision and execution loops.

The sequence is now becoming clear. The coordination premium explains why enterprise objectives matter, the cross-functional agent problem explains why local optimization is dangerous, and the execution architecture defines the path from intelligence to action. Once the workflow becomes the unit of execution, the next question is economic: how much value is created when that workflow operates faster? That leads directly to decision latency.

The post The Enterprise Workflow Is Becoming More Important Than the Enterprise Application appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Automated Storage & Retrieval Systems — Orlando

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Warehouse automation is moving quickly from a specialized investment to a core component of modern distribution strategy. Automated storage and retrieval systems, or AS/RS, are increasingly central to that transition, helping companies increase storage density, improve throughput, reduce manual travel, and make better use of increasingly expensive warehouse space.

In this Logistics Viewpoints video, recorded in Orlando, we discuss the evolution of automated storage and retrieval systems and what these technologies mean for warehouse and distribution operations.

The conversation looks beyond the equipment itself. As warehouses become more automated, companies increasingly need to think about how storage, material movement, software, labor, and broader fulfillment processes operate as an integrated system.

For supply chain leaders evaluating warehouse automation, AS/RS is becoming part of a much larger question: what should the warehouse of the next decade look like, and where does automation create the greatest operational value?

Watch the full Logistics Viewpoints discussion below.

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ARC Forum – What Is the Forum and How Do I Get Involved?

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The ARC Industry Forum brings together executives, technology suppliers, manufacturers, infrastructure operators, analysts, and other industry leaders to examine how technology is changing industrial operations.

But the Forum is more than a conference. It is an opportunity for the industrial technology community to compare strategies, understand emerging technologies, hear directly from practitioners, and discuss the operational challenges shaping the next generation of manufacturing, supply chain, energy, infrastructure, and automation.

In this video, we discuss what the ARC Forum is, the role it plays within the broader ARC Advisory Group community, and how companies and individuals can become involved.

For Logistics Viewpoints readers, the Forum is particularly relevant because the boundaries between traditional supply chain technology and the broader industrial technology environment continue to disappear. AI, robotics, automation, connected operations, digital twins, autonomous systems, and intelligent infrastructure increasingly span both worlds.

The ARC Forum provides a place to understand those changes directly from the companies and practitioners implementing them.

Watch the video below to learn more about the Forum and how to get involved.

The post ARC Forum – What Is the Forum and How Do I Get Involved? appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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