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Container rates jump another $1k/FEU – but is demand peaking? – July 8, 2026 Update

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 8%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 8%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 10%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 11%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices stayed level.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 7%.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 1%.

Analysis

Yesterday’s Iranian strikes on vessels and states in the region, and US retaliations mark the most serious of a series of military exchanges and escalations since the start of the ceasefire, with President Trump saying the latest Iranian attacks may signal the end of the ceasefire altogether. The relative stability in the region prior to these attacks spurred the Gemini Cooperation to announce the coming restart of its gradual return to Red Sea transits – though the recent deterioration could put this resumption in jeopardy once again.

The periodic drone and missile attacks have led to multiple start and stops of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and daily transits are still well below pre-war norms. Nonetheless, crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels and the surprising speed at which global oil supply is recovering is even leading to concerns of the market becoming oversupplied.

A ceasefire collapse could threaten the success of a sustained oil recovery, though alternatives to oil passing through the strait are driving a good share of current supply. Bunker and jet fuel prices are easing too, but remain 20% – 30% above pre-war levels as refined petroleum products dependent on crude supply levels will take longer to normalize.

But again this week, falling fuel prices are not being reflected in container spot rate behavior as peak season demand continues to push freight rates higher – though the early start to this year’s busy season may also mean we are already reaching peak volumes.

The US Trade Representative started hearings this week as part of the process required to roll out new Section 301 tariffs before Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24th. This coming tariff deadline is likely one driver of frontloading and the early peak season start on the transpacific. But spiking demand and rates on Asia – Europe lanes where tariffs are not a factor suggest that July BAF hikes and Q3 manufacturer price increases were also major factors towards the overall early demand surge.

July 1st GRIs and PSSs have stuck, pushing rates up $1,000/FEU across the major east-west lanes for a total increase of more than $3,000/FEU on the transpacific trades since the end of May. Prices to the West Coast climbed to about $6,700/FEU last week with East Coast rates up to about $8,700/FEU but leveling off at $9,000/FEU this week.

Carriers are adding capacity to the transpacific to service the rush of demand, but some forwarders think frontload-driven demand may already be peaking. Easing demand, together with capacity additions, could mean that the significant mid-month rate increases planned by some carriers may not take, and prices could even start easing later in the month.

Asia – Europe rates have behaved similarly since the end of May, despite record levels of capacity deployed on these lanes, with Asia – N. Europe rates up to about $5,400/FEU last week and prices to the Mediterranean passing the $7,000/FEU mark. Carriers have additional increases of about $2,000/FEU slated for mid-July on these lanes too, though like on the transpacific, the early start to the demand surge has many anticipating the demand side could start easing soon.

For all the major east-west lanes though, rolled cargo backlogs as well as growing significant congestion at major hubs including Shanghai, Ningbo, Yantian, Singapore, Busan and Colombo could slow the speed of the rate unwind even if the rate of new bookings slow.

In air cargo, easing fuel prices have contributed to cargo rates down from war time highs, though the Freightos Air Index global benchmark has been steady since late May and well above the pre-war level. China – N. America prices were stable at $6.56/kg last week. China – Europe rates which were steady in June fell 7% to $4.21/kg last week, possibly reflecting some drop in demand as the EU’s de minimis suspension took effect.

Freightos Terminal: Real-time pricing dashboards to benchmark rates and track market trends.

Procure: Streamlined procurement and cost savings with digital rate management and automated workflows.

Rate, Book, & Manage: Real-time rate comparison, instant booking, and easy tracking at every shipment stage.

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Choosing a TMS: What Logistics Leaders Should Evaluate Beyond Features

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A TMS evaluation should begin with the operating problem, not the product demo. In a crowded market, feature lists create an illusion of comparability; the better question is which platform best fits the decisions, constraints, interfaces, and outcomes of the buyer’s actual transportation operation.

The core job is the freight-centric planning and execution system used to translate orders and demand into feasible transportation plans, carrier decisions, tenders, shipment execution, visibility, settlement, and performance management. Buyers should translate that mission into explicit requirements tied to service, cost, capacity, risk, and response time. That prevents a vendor’s strongest demo feature from quietly becoming the buyer’s strategy. The same logic behind Select Technology for the System, Not the Feature List applies directly to TMS selection, where architecture, integration, decision rights, and operating fit can matter more than a long checklist.

Core capabilities include rate and contract management, multimodal planning, optimization, consolidation, routing, carrier selection and tendering, execution monitoring, real-time visibility, exception management, parcel and last-mile workflows, freight audit and settlement, analytics, and carrier performance management. Not every organization needs maximum depth in every area. The evaluation should weight the capabilities that matter to the operating model and explicitly de-emphasize those that do not.

Evaluate the architecture around the feature

The platform will live inside an architecture where ERP and OMS supply demand and order context; TMS converts that context into freight plans and execution; carrier networks, visibility, telematics, WMS/YMS, parcel, payment, and decision layers continuously update the operating state. Integration should therefore be tested as part of the business case, including data frequency, failure handling, API maturity, ownership of master data, latency, security, and what happens when an upstream feed is incomplete.

A useful demonstration should include a tender rejection, a late pickup, a new order after the plan is built, a capacity shortfall, a missed delivery window, or a warehouse constraint that makes the transportation plan infeasible. Ask the provider to show what the system knows, what it recommends, who or what has authority, how the action is executed, and how the outcome is recorded. A polished happy path is far less informative than a realistic exception.

The evaluation should cover multimodal depth, optimization quality, carrier connectivity, execution completeness, exception handling, global reach, integration architecture, configurability, scalability, implementation burden, and evidence of measurable transportation outcomes. Where a provider claims better intelligence, automation, or autonomy, ask for measurable evidence using freight cost, tender acceptance, on-time pickup and delivery, plan stability, empty miles, utilization, dwell, cost-to-serve, exception-resolution time, invoice accuracy, and service performance. Referenceability matters because the difference between an available feature and an operating capability is usually implementation, adoption, and governance.

The provider landscape includes enterprise suite TMS; specialist transportation platforms; network- and managed-transportation-led offerings; and cloud-native or execution-centric platforms with strong connectivity and visibility. Those archetypes are not a ranking. They represent different design centers and strengths, which is why the right shortlist will vary by network complexity, operating model, existing stack, internal skills, and the decisions the organization is trying to improve.

The best product is therefore not the one with the most boxes checked. It is the one that satisfies the requirements, fits the interfaces, supports the people and decision rights around it, and can evolve without turning every future change into a custom project.

Implementation evidence belongs in the TMS buying decision

A TMS evaluation should test the operating environment the platform will actually inherit: modes, regions, carrier networks, procurement models, parcel complexity, spot exposure, freight payment, international requirements, data quality, and integration to ERP, OMS, WMS, telematics, and carrier networks. Those conditions determine whether a feature becomes an operating capability.

Request evidence from comparable networks and make vendors demonstrate the difficult path. Use tender rejection, late pickup, missing milestone, rate conflict, capacity shortage, changed order, cross-border documentation, and invoice discrepancy scenarios. Then observe how many manual steps, external tools, custom workflows, and specialist interventions are required. The demonstration should expose the real operating model behind the product.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Transportation Management Systems Market Map
The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
Editor’s Choice: 5 Pitfalls to Avoid When Choosing a TMS
Previous in this series: Why the TMS Market Is Moving Toward Continuous Transportation Execution

Request the 2026 Transportation Management Systems Market Map Brochure

The 2026 Market Map is designed to help organizations understand the structure of the TMS market, evaluate provider differences, and identify the capabilities most relevant to their transportation operating environment. If your organization is evaluating TMS platforms or preparing a shortlist, I would be glad to provide the Market Map brochure and discuss the evaluation questions and provider differences most relevant to your requirements.

Request the TMS Market Map Brochure

For technology providers

Providers may request the brochure, discuss the research framework, or contact me to confirm how their capabilities are represented in the market assessment.

Discuss the research or confirm your profile

The post Choosing a TMS: What Logistics Leaders Should Evaluate Beyond Features appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Aera Technology Keeps Decision Intelligence Focused on the Decision Loop

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Decision intelligence can become an abstract category if it is defined only by analytics or recommendations. Aera Technology takes a more operational view: a decision has value when the system can assemble the required context, recommend an action, govern how that action is approved, write the result back into enterprise systems, and learn from the outcome.

Aera Decision Cloud is organized around that closed-loop model. The platform combines data orchestration, a decision data model, optimization and AI, reusable Aera Skills, decision memory, and controlled execution across connected systems. This positions Aera less as a traditional planning suite and more as a decision and orchestration layer spanning supply chain and adjacent enterprise functions.

That architecture is particularly relevant for exception-heavy operating environments. Repetitive decisions around inventory, orders, logistics, master data, or control-tower workflows can often be standardized, monitored, and partially automated, while ambiguous or high-impact cases remain under human control. The result is a more explicit path from human-in-the-loop decision support toward bounded autonomy.

The discipline required is governance. Enterprises need to know what data was used, why a recommendation was produced, who or what approved it, what system was changed, and how the outcome was measured. Those controls become more—not less—important as decision systems gain the ability to act.

Aera Technology appears in the Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. Those two MarketMaps provide complementary views of the company’s role in decision orchestration and the emerging automation of operational exceptions.

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Decision Intelligence Is Emerging as the New Layer Between Signals and Execution

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Executive thesis. Supply chains do not lack signals; they lack a reliable mechanism for converting signals into economically coherent decisions. Decision intelligence is emerging to close that gap between analytics and execution.

Supply chains do not suffer from a shortage of signals

Modern operations generate alerts from planning, transportation, warehouses, suppliers, risk platforms, quality systems, and customer channels. The bottleneck is the decision between signal and action. Someone still has to determine whether the change matters, what it affects, which alternatives exist, and how the tradeoffs should be resolved.

Decision intelligence addresses that gap

Decision-intelligence platforms attempt to connect operational signals with business context, models, alternatives, recommendations, approvals, and execution. That places them above individual systems of record while requiring close integration with those systems. Their value is not another analytics layer. It is reducing the friction in consequential operational decisions.

Business impact has to be explicit

An alert becomes effective when the platform can map it to affected orders, inventory, customers, suppliers, lanes, capacity, revenue, service, or risk. That impact model helps prioritize work and avoids treating every deviation as equally material. It also creates the basis for evaluating alternatives against the objectives the business actually cares about.

Recommendations need a path to action

A recommendation that ends in a dashboard leaves much of the decision process manual. Stronger architectures can route approvals, invoke workflows, or push authorized decisions into planning and execution systems while preserving an audit trail. That is where decision intelligence begins to converge with orchestration and control-tower capabilities.

Evaluate the decision loop

Buyers should examine the full sequence from signal to action: detection, context, impact, alternatives, tradeoffs, recommendation, approval, execution, and outcome. The platform should make each step more reliable without obscuring decision ownership. Explainability, governance, and integration therefore matter as much as optimization or AI sophistication.

The Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence: What It Is and How to Evaluate Platforms guide provides a buyer framework for connecting signals to impact, alternatives, tradeoffs, recommendations, approvals, and execution across operational systems.

Executive implication

The category should be judged by the quality of the decision loop: impact, alternatives, tradeoffs, approvals, execution, and feedback—not by recommendation generation alone.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. AI & Advanced Analytics connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Supply Chain Decision Intelligence Market Map
Planning, Execution & Visibility

Go Deeper

Read the full Supply Chain Decision Intelligence: What It Is and How to Evaluate Platforms.

Explore the broader AI & Advanced Analytics domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

The post Decision Intelligence Is Emerging as the New Layer Between Signals and Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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