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Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update

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Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 48% to $2,958/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 3% to $3,513/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 9% to $2,492/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 24% to $2,837/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 4% to $6.30/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 6% to $3.92/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly increased 9% to $2.18/kg.

Analysis

The US Supreme Court heard arguments last week in the appeal of lower court decisions that invalidated President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose fentanyl-related and reciprocal tariffs this year.

Questions and comments made by justices during the hearing gave the impression that the court is likely to rule against the administration. While there’s speculation that a decision could come as soon as the end of the year, the court has until the end of its term in June to issue a ruling.

Striking down this use of IEEPA could potentially open a low-tariff window for arriving goods from many countries. But the White House will certainly be motivated to close that window quickly and re-establish duties using other more-recognized legal paths for country-specific tariffs. These options include a trade law empowering the president to apply immediate 15% country-specific tariffs for 150 days which the administration could use as a first step to restoring tariffs through other means.

East-West ocean rates increased significantly on most lanes via November 1st General Rate Increases last week. Transpacific prices to the West Coast climbed 48% and $1,000/FEU to about $3,000/FEU, but daily rates so far this week are trending down slightly and rates to the East Coast remained about even with October levels.

There are reports indicating prices could fall back to their late October levels soon, which were themselves pushed up from year lows hit in early October via GRIs. Some carriers are announcing additional blanked sailings for the transpacific this month in moves to at least keep rates from backsliding to recent lows.

The current low demand period poses a challenge to carrier GRI ambitions. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import report estimates October volumes sagged to about even with the previous lows for the year hit in May and June when US tariffs on China were at 145%. The report also projects that demand will ease further in November and December with double digit monthly decreases compared to last year as tariff frontloading has meant declining volumes since mid-August.

US ocean imports are expected to rebound during the lead up to Lunar New Year in January and early February, but these months are also projected to be down significantly year on year due to comparisons with Q1 2025 when frontloading began.

Asia – Europe rates climbed 9% to about $2,500/FEU last week with prices to the Mediterranean up 24% to $2,837/FEU on November GRIs. Some carriers have announced mid-month GRIs aiming to increase rates to the $3k/FEU mark for Asia-Europe as the long-term contract tendering season gets underway for this lane.

But in addition to the low demand challenge, carriers are also contending with continued fleet growth and climbing overcapacity. While Red Sea diversions last year were enough to keep rates well above long term norms, the monthly global rate benchmark has been lower year on year since March even as volumes have grown overall in 2025. A container traffic return to the Red Sea will, after a transition period, exacerbate the supply surplus. Reports this week of Houthis declaring an end to Red Sea attacks and carriers meeting with Suez Canal officials may mean the return to the Suez is getting closer.

In air cargo, the US government shutdown – which could end soon – has led to a shortage of air traffic controllers and the phase in of a 10% reduction in flights in the US which is disrupting domestic passenger travel and bellyhold air cargo operations along with it.

But as domestic freighters and international flights – which account for the bulk of the US air cargo market – are spared for now, the overall impact on air cargo should be minimal. Once the shutdown ends, airlines are expected to be able to restart their full flight schedules within 12-36 hours. Despite the delays, Freightos Air Index intra-North America rates have stayed stable at about $1.60/kg.

Changes to the US de minimis rules back in May meant a sharp initial drop in China-US e-commerce air cargo volumes, though recent data shows a gradual rebound in volumes since then as e-comm platforms adjust to the new rules – though not back to levels when de minimis was available.

Asia – Europe e-commerce air cargo volumes have shown nearly uninterrupted growth throughout the year as China’s e-commerce giants shifted focus to US alternatives, especially markets where de minimis exceptions are still in place. But there have been multiple signs of opposition to the flood of low cost goods entering these markets, including in the EU. Just this week France announced increased inspections of all e-commerce imports which is leading to backlogs at CDG.

But as has been the case since May, capacity shifts have meant that despite year on year volume declines transpacific rates remain elevated even if moderately below 2024 levels. China-US rates increased 4% to $6.30/kg last week on some likely peak season demand bump though prices were at about $7.00/kg last year. Likewise, despite volume growth, China-Europe rates which were at $3.92/kg last week, are about on par with prices in 2024.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The post Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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Last Chance: Join the Webinar on AI, Component Sourcing, and the Future of Procurement

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Electronic component sourcing is becoming one of the most important cost and risk challenges facing manufacturers.

Pricing remains opaque. Supplier quotes do not always reflect true market pricing. Internal purchase history may show what a company paid, but not whether that price was competitive.

At the same time, chips and components are increasingly tied to geopolitics, tariffs, AI infrastructure, defense demand, electrification, industrial automation, and supply chain resilience.

The webinar is tomorrow at 11 AM ET. Register now to join ARC Advisory Group’s discussion, The Hidden Cost of Component Sourcing — and How AI Is Fixing It, featuring Jim Frazer in conversation with Lytica CEO Martin Sendyk.

This is a practical conversation for procurement, supply chain, engineering, operations, and executive leaders who are trying to understand how component sourcing is changing.

Manufacturers need to control cost, protect supply, support product launches, and manage risk in a market where visibility is often limited. Overpayment can remain hidden. Component risk can appear too late. Engineering and procurement decisions can become locked in before teams have enough market intelligence to make the best sourcing choices.

Tomorrow’s webinar will examine why traditional approaches to component sourcing are under pressure and how manufacturers can use better intelligence to identify hidden cost, improve benchmarking, and manage sourcing risk more effectively.

Attendees will learn:

Why electronic component pricing remains difficult to benchmark

How hidden overpayment can persist inside normal procurement activity

Why supplier quotes, list prices, and internal history are not enough

How real transactional data can improve pricing visibility

Why geopolitics, AI demand, tariffs, electrification, and defense demand are changing the sourcing risk equation

How AI and sourcing intelligence can help procurement teams make better cost and risk decisions

The issue is no longer only whether a company can secure supply.

The issue is whether it can secure the right components, at the right price, with the right risk profile, early enough to influence the business outcome.

For many manufacturers, that requires a more transparent, data-driven, and intelligence-led sourcing model.

Register now for the ARC Advisory Group webinar with Jim Frazer and Lytica CEO Martin Sendyk before the session begins tomorrow at 11 AM ET.

Register for the Webinar

The Hidden Cost of Component Sourcing — and How AI Is Fixing It
Date: June 23, 2026
Time: 11:00 AM ET
Location: Online
Speakers: Jim Frazer, Vice President, ARC Advisory Group, and Martin Sendyk, CEO, Lytica

If your organization manages a significant electronic component spend, this webinar will help you understand how AI and transactional market data can expose hidden sourcing costs and turn procurement into a more proactive system of intelligence.

Register now to reserve your spot.

The post Last Chance: Join the Webinar on AI, Component Sourcing, and the Future of Procurement appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Weekly Supply Chain and Logsitics News Round Up (June 15th-18th 2026)

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Weekly Supply Chain And Logsitics News Round Up (june 15th 18th 2026)

This week in logistics, the industry faces a pivotal shift as Transportation Management Systems evolve into ‘decision intelligence’ hubs, moving beyond basic routing to become the core operating brain of the supply chain. Meanwhile, operational complexity reaches new heights with the massive logistical undertaking of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, even as trade tensions show signs of cooling following the European Parliament’s approval of a landmark EU-US tariff relief deal. From record-breaking automation at Nestlé’s new California hub to the fluctuating volatility of global air freight rates, these developments underscore a sector increasingly defined by high-tech integration and rapid adaptation to global market forces.

The Leading Supply Chain and Logistics Stories of the Week:

TMS Is Becoming Less of a Routing Tool and More of a Decision Intelligence Layer Beyond Execution

The role of the Transportation Management System (TMS) is undergoing a major paradigm shift. While traditional evaluations still focus heavily on execution-level metrics—like route optimization, automated tendering, and freight audit capabilities—these features have essentially become table stakes. Moving forward, the true strategic value of a TMS lies in its evolution from execution software to “transportation decision infrastructure.” Rather than just completing transactions, next-generation platforms serve as the continuous decision-making layer of the supply chain. By drawing data from across the entire network, integrating external market signals, and resolving multi-functional bottlenecks, modern TMS solutions are transitioning into the core operating brain that synchronizes movement, cost, and service levels in real time.

The Logistics Issue: The Supply Chains Behind the World Cup

While most fans focus entirely on the action on the pitch, supply chain professionals are watching what might be the most complex logistical undertaking in sporting history: the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spanning three host nations—the United States, Canada, and Mexico—the sheer scale of the tournament requires moving more than twenty million pounds of equipment, coordinated across 5,000 vehicles and millions of square feet of warehouse space. The challenge isn’t just massive volume; it’s the absolute lack of tolerance for delay or error across highly regulated international borders. Industry experts point out that success hinges on establishing a unified ecosystem in which freight forwarders, customs officials, and vendors collaborate in real time. Crucial to this effort are standardized product identification and cloud-based labeling networks, which ensure that every critical piece of equipment, food shipment, and medical supply is fully traceable and compliant with differing regional mandates—proving that at this scale, elite collaboration is the only way to avoid catastrophic bottlenecks.

Transatlantic Trade Relief: European Parliament Greenlights EU-US Tariff

In a major relief to transatlantic supply chain operators, the European Parliament has officially voted to implement the long-awaited trade agreement with the United States. Under the newly approved legislation, the EU will eliminate tariffs on all American industrial goods and grant preferential market access to key U.S. agricultural and seafood shipments. In return, the U.S. has agreed to cap import tariffs on European products at 15%—effectively averting threatened 25% tariff hikes on European-built vehicles. Importantly for logistics planners, the deal incorporates a “defensive toolbox” to mitigate long-term trade volatility, including a sunset clause set for late 2029, a safeguard mechanism to protect EU markets from disruptive import surges, and strict conditions that allow the EU to suspend tariff preferences by the end of 2026 if the U.S. fails to lower existing duties on European steel and aluminum derivatives.

Nestlé Opens Its Largest and Most Technologically Advanced Distribution Center in the U.S.

Nestlé USA has officially unveiled its new 700,000-square-foot distribution hub in Arvin, California. Equipped with a $330 million price tag, the state-of-the-art facility represents a critical step in the company’s broader $25 billion U.S. infrastructure upgrade, emphasizing a pivot toward leaner, automation-first supply chain workflows. The Arvin facility houses the largest Automated Storage and Retrieval System (ASRS) in Nestlé’s global network, operating alongside laser-guided vehicles, automated crane systems, and layer-picking robotics. This build marks a major shift from retrofitting existing spaces to intentionally designing high-tech capabilities directly into greenfield logistics layouts from day one. Designed to mitigate peak-season labor bottlenecks, upskill the frontline workforce, and run on 100% renewable electricity as a zero-waste site, the facility showcases how global leaders are leveraging heavy automation to establish flexible, resilient distribution networks that protect margins against ongoing labor and capacity constraints.

Air Freight Spot Rates Spike 41% YoY in May, but Relief Is Expected Soon

Global air cargo spot rates surged by 41% year-over-year in May, averaging $3.40 per kilogram, driven by persistent geopolitical disruptions, carrier fuel surcharges, and localized demand booms like semiconductor and data center equipment shipments. According to Xeneta data, spot rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America jumped nearly 40% compared to earlier this year. However, the pricing pressure isn’t uniform; transatlantic lanes from Europe to North America actually saw a 26% decline over the same period. For procurement teams battling these elevated costs, there is a glimmer of light on the horizon. Long-term contract rates appear to have peaked in April, and as carriers restore capacity and the market enters its traditional summer lull, analysts predict that year-over-year spot rate comparisons will finally begin to cool down, offering much-needed breathing room for shippers who have been relying on short-term contract extensions.

Song of the week:

The post Weekly Supply Chain and Logsitics News Round Up (June 15th-18th 2026) appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Octave’s Austin Event Matters: From Asset Lifecycle Software to Intelligence at Scale

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Octave Live OnTour Austin takes place at a consequential point in the evolution of the industrial software market. Asset-intensive organizations are under sustained pressure to improve capital project execution, asset reliability, operational resilience, safety, quality, cybersecurity, and workforce productivity. At the same time, they are being asked to make better use of data and apply AI in ways that are practical, governed, and operationally relevant.

This is the context in which Octave’s Austin event should be evaluated.

Octave, the software spin-off from Hexagon AB, brings together software assets across engineering, construction, geospatial intelligence, asset operations, quality, public safety, physical security, and industrial cybersecurity. Its Design, Build, Operate, and Protect framework provides a clear structure for organizing those capabilities around the industrial asset lifecycle.

However, the strategic significance of the event is not limited to Octave’s portfolio structure. The more important issue is what Octave’s positioning indicates about the broader direction of industrial software.

The market is shifting from digitized workflows toward intelligence at scale.

Industrial Software Is Moving Beyond Functional Digitization

For much of the past two decades, industrial software investment has centered on functional digitization. Engineering teams adopted design, modeling, analysis, and engineering information management tools. Construction teams deployed project controls and field execution systems. Operations teams invested in EAM, APM, optimization, and reliability applications. Quality, safety, physical security, and cybersecurity functions developed their own specialized technology environments.

These investments created meaningful value within individual domains. But they also reinforced a long-standing structural problem: industrial work is highly interconnected, while the supporting software environment often remains fragmented.

A design change can alter construction cost and schedule. Construction execution quality can affect commissioning performance. Poor handoff from construction to operations can increase maintenance burden. Maintenance backlog can elevate safety and compliance risk. A cybersecurity incident can become an operational disruption. A public safety event may require geospatial, security, asset, and operational context at the same time.

This is the gap that lifecycle intelligence seeks to address.

Lifecycle Intelligence Requires Context Across the Asset Lifecycle

Octave’s Design, Build, Operate, and Protect framework is meaningful because it reflects how industrial assets are planned, built, used, maintained, protected, and improved over time.

In the Design domain, Octave can address engineering, modeling, analysis, information management, and geospatial intelligence. In Build, the portfolio extends into construction, supply chain management, and project performance. In Operate, the focus expands to operations optimization, asset performance, enterprise asset management, quality, compliance, and risk. In Protect, Octave’s positioning includes public safety, physical security, and industrial cybersecurity.

Individually, these are established industrial software categories. Collectively, they suggest a broader strategic direction: the use of software to preserve, connect, and operationalize context across the asset lifecycle.

That is where the Austin event becomes important. Customers and partners should look for evidence that Octave is moving beyond portfolio aggregation toward a more integrated model of lifecycle intelligence.

Intelligence at Scale Depends on Integration, Data, and Workflow Relevance

The phrase “intelligence at scale” should be interpreted operationally, not rhetorically. In industrial environments, intelligence at scale means that software can connect relevant data, apply domain context, and support better decisions across complex workflows.

This requires more than analytics dashboards. It requires software that can help users understand the implications of decisions across functions. It also requires a data foundation that connects engineering data, project execution status, asset histories, maintenance records, geospatial information, quality events, safety incidents, and cybersecurity signals.

AI increases the importance of this foundation. AI capabilities will have limited enterprise value if they are disconnected from operational systems and industrial context. The more material opportunity is AI that is embedded in real workflows and supported by trusted domain data.

For Octave, the strategic question is whether its portfolio can support AI-enabled decision-making across the asset lifecycle, rather than isolated AI features within individual applications.

The Event Should Be Assessed as a Roadmap Signal

Buyers should treat Octave Live OnTour Austin as a roadmap signal.

The first area to assess is integration. Octave’s portfolio breadth creates potential value, but customers will need clarity on how the company intends to connect products and workflows over time. Important indicators include shared data models, workflow orchestration, user experience consistency, API strategy, and cross-domain analytics.

The second area is AI. Customers should listen for specific use cases, not general AI messaging. Relevant examples could include project risk identification, asset performance optimization, maintenance prioritization, quality exception management, safety response, cyber risk monitoring, or engineering decision support. The key issue is whether AI is being tied to operational outcomes.

The third area is ecosystem fit. Industrial organizations rarely standardize on a single vendor across the full technology landscape. Octave will need to clarify how its offerings interact with ERP, EAM, APM, MES, PLM, project controls, cybersecurity, and analytics environments. The value proposition must be additive without increasing architectural complexity.

The fourth area is sequencing. Broad portfolios require disciplined execution. A credible roadmap should identify where Octave will focus first, what integration steps matter most, and how customers should think about value realization over time.

Broader Market Implications

Octave’s Austin event matters because it reflects a larger shift in industrial software.

The next stage of the market will not be defined solely by applications that digitize individual workflows. It will be defined by platforms and architectures that connect operational context across functions. This does not mean every customer will consolidate around a single software suite. Industrial technology environments will remain heterogeneous. But the strategic requirement for connected data, workflow continuity, and decision support will continue to intensify.

AI will accelerate this trend. Effective AI depends on relevant context. If industrial data remains trapped in disconnected systems, AI will be limited to narrow productivity assistance. If data and workflows are connected, AI can support higher-value decisions involving risk, reliability, performance, safety, and resilience.

That is why lifecycle intelligence is becoming an important industrial software concept. It reflects the need to move from systems that record activity to systems that help organizations understand and act on operational complexity.

ARC Advisory Group Perspective

Octave has a credible opportunity to participate in this market transition. The company has meaningful software assets across multiple industrial domains, and its Design, Build, Operate, and Protect framework provides a practical way to organize the portfolio.

The central question is execution. Octave will need to demonstrate that its portfolio can become more than a set of adjacent capabilities. Customers will expect integration clarity, practical AI use cases, ecosystem openness, and a roadmap that connects near-term value to a longer-term lifecycle intelligence strategy.

For buyers, the Austin event should be used to evaluate roadmap direction and strategic fit. For partners, it should clarify Octave’s intended role in the industrial software ecosystem. For the broader market, it is another indication that industrial software is moving toward connected intelligence at scale.

The companies that define this next phase will not simply digitize industrial work. They will connect context across the asset lifecycle and convert that context into better decisions.

The post Why Octave’s Austin Event Matters: From Asset Lifecycle Software to Intelligence at Scale appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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