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Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update

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Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 48% to $2,958/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 3% to $3,513/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 9% to $2,492/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 24% to $2,837/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 4% to $6.30/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 6% to $3.92/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly increased 9% to $2.18/kg.

Analysis

The US Supreme Court heard arguments last week in the appeal of lower court decisions that invalidated President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose fentanyl-related and reciprocal tariffs this year.

Questions and comments made by justices during the hearing gave the impression that the court is likely to rule against the administration. While there’s speculation that a decision could come as soon as the end of the year, the court has until the end of its term in June to issue a ruling.

Striking down this use of IEEPA could potentially open a low-tariff window for arriving goods from many countries. But the White House will certainly be motivated to close that window quickly and re-establish duties using other more-recognized legal paths for country-specific tariffs. These options include a trade law empowering the president to apply immediate 15% country-specific tariffs for 150 days which the administration could use as a first step to restoring tariffs through other means.

East-West ocean rates increased significantly on most lanes via November 1st General Rate Increases last week. Transpacific prices to the West Coast climbed 48% and $1,000/FEU to about $3,000/FEU, but daily rates so far this week are trending down slightly and rates to the East Coast remained about even with October levels.

There are reports indicating prices could fall back to their late October levels soon, which were themselves pushed up from year lows hit in early October via GRIs. Some carriers are announcing additional blanked sailings for the transpacific this month in moves to at least keep rates from backsliding to recent lows.

The current low demand period poses a challenge to carrier GRI ambitions. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import report estimates October volumes sagged to about even with the previous lows for the year hit in May and June when US tariffs on China were at 145%. The report also projects that demand will ease further in November and December with double digit monthly decreases compared to last year as tariff frontloading has meant declining volumes since mid-August.

US ocean imports are expected to rebound during the lead up to Lunar New Year in January and early February, but these months are also projected to be down significantly year on year due to comparisons with Q1 2025 when frontloading began.

Asia – Europe rates climbed 9% to about $2,500/FEU last week with prices to the Mediterranean up 24% to $2,837/FEU on November GRIs. Some carriers have announced mid-month GRIs aiming to increase rates to the $3k/FEU mark for Asia-Europe as the long-term contract tendering season gets underway for this lane.

But in addition to the low demand challenge, carriers are also contending with continued fleet growth and climbing overcapacity. While Red Sea diversions last year were enough to keep rates well above long term norms, the monthly global rate benchmark has been lower year on year since March even as volumes have grown overall in 2025. A container traffic return to the Red Sea will, after a transition period, exacerbate the supply surplus. Reports this week of Houthis declaring an end to Red Sea attacks and carriers meeting with Suez Canal officials may mean the return to the Suez is getting closer.

In air cargo, the US government shutdown – which could end soon – has led to a shortage of air traffic controllers and the phase in of a 10% reduction in flights in the US which is disrupting domestic passenger travel and bellyhold air cargo operations along with it.

But as domestic freighters and international flights – which account for the bulk of the US air cargo market – are spared for now, the overall impact on air cargo should be minimal. Once the shutdown ends, airlines are expected to be able to restart their full flight schedules within 12-36 hours. Despite the delays, Freightos Air Index intra-North America rates have stayed stable at about $1.60/kg.

Changes to the US de minimis rules back in May meant a sharp initial drop in China-US e-commerce air cargo volumes, though recent data shows a gradual rebound in volumes since then as e-comm platforms adjust to the new rules – though not back to levels when de minimis was available.

Asia – Europe e-commerce air cargo volumes have shown nearly uninterrupted growth throughout the year as China’s e-commerce giants shifted focus to US alternatives, especially markets where de minimis exceptions are still in place. But there have been multiple signs of opposition to the flood of low cost goods entering these markets, including in the EU. Just this week France announced increased inspections of all e-commerce imports which is leading to backlogs at CDG.

But as has been the case since May, capacity shifts have meant that despite year on year volume declines transpacific rates remain elevated even if moderately below 2024 levels. China-US rates increased 4% to $6.30/kg last week on some likely peak season demand bump though prices were at about $7.00/kg last year. Likewise, despite volume growth, China-Europe rates which were at $3.92/kg last week, are about on par with prices in 2024.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The post Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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The New Economics of Logistics Visibility

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Knowing that a shipment will arrive six hours late is information. Knowing it early enough to reschedule labor, protect a customer commitment, avoid detention, or change an inventory decision is economic value.

That distinction is becoming central to the logistics visibility market. The earlier argument that exceptions are becoming the real unit of work explains why visibility economics depend less on event volume than on whether the organization can convert important events into timely resolution.

The first era of visibility was largely about answering a basic question: Where is my shipment? The next era is about a harder question: What should I do because its state has changed?

Visibility Is Not the Outcome

Location and status data can be valuable, but they are intermediate products. A business does not earn a return because a dot moved across a map more accurately. The return appears when information changes an operational decision. A useful way to think about visibility is as a chain: signal -> interpretation -> decision -> intervention -> economic outcome. If any link is missing, much of the potential value disappears.

A Signal Has to Arrive Inside the Decision Window

Timing matters.

A delay discovered after the customer has already missed production is history. The same delay identified early enough to expedite an alternate shipment may be actionable. An ETA update received after warehouse labor has reported for a shift may have less value than the same update received while the schedule can still be changed.

This means visibility quality is not only about accuracy. It is about whether the signal arrives with enough lead time to support an intervention.

Not Every Exception Deserves Attention

As visibility improves, organizations often discover a new problem: too many exceptions. A network with thousands of shipments will always contain delays, deviations, missed scans, changing ETAs, and incomplete data. If every deviation creates an alert, planners become the bottleneck. The more important capability is prioritization.

Which late shipment threatens a high-value order? Which delay creates a stockout? Which container risks demurrage? Which arrival change will disrupt a dock schedule? Which event is likely to self-correct without intervention?

Visibility becomes intelligence when the system can distinguish operational consequence from mere deviation.

ETA Is a Decision Input

Estimated time of arrival is a good example of how the economics are changing. ETA was once primarily a customer-service or tracking metric. Increasingly it can influence warehouse scheduling, yard planning, labor, inventory, customer promises, and downstream transportation. That makes ETA a shared operating variable.

The value increases when the prediction is connected to the systems that can respond. A changing ETA that remains trapped in a visibility dashboard creates less value than one that can trigger a workflow or decision elsewhere.

Dwell, Detention, and Demurrage Make the Economics Visible

Some visibility use cases have direct financial consequences. Better awareness of arrival, dwell, free-time windows, and container status can help organizations manage detention and demurrage exposure. Yard visibility can reduce unnecessary trailer search and moves. Earlier exception detection can protect delivery appointments and reduce costly service recovery. These cases make an important point: visibility value is often realized outside the visibility platform itself.

More Visibility Can Increase Work

This is the uncomfortable side of digital transparency. If a company exposes ten times as many events but does not improve prioritization or workflow, it may create ten times as many things for people to inspect. The result can be an expensive monitoring layer sitting on top of the same manual decision process.

That is why visibility and autonomous exception management are converging. The system must increasingly help decide which events require action, assemble context, recommend a response, and automate routine resolution where appropriate.

Measure Intervention, Not Just Coverage

Visibility programs are often measured by tracking coverage, data completeness, ETA accuracy, or number of connected carriers. Those are necessary operating metrics, but they do not fully describe business value.

Organizations should also ask: How many material exceptions were identified early enough to act? How quickly were they resolved? How often did intervention protect service or avoid cost? How many alerts required no useful action? How much planner time was consumed per exception?

Those measures connect visibility to economics.

The Market Is Moving Toward Action

This shift has strategic implications for technology providers. Pure visibility is becoming less differentiated as location and event data become more widely available. The higher-value layer is interpretation and action: understanding what an event means to a specific operation and helping execute the appropriate response.

That pushes visibility platforms toward orchestration, workflow, decision intelligence, and AI. It also pushes TMS, WMS, and other execution systems toward richer external event awareness.

The Bottleneck Moves

For years, logistics organizations complained that they could not make better decisions because they could not see what was happening. Increasingly, they can see more.

The bottleneck is moving.

When a network can identify exceptions continuously, the constraint becomes the speed and quality with which the organization can interpret and resolve them. That is precisely the environment in which AI agents become interesting—not because logistics needs another conversational interface, but because it needs more capacity to do operational work.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Autonomous Exception Management Market Map
The Economics of Decision Latency
Previous in this series: Transportation Is Becoming Computational

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If your organization is assessing connected execution, orchestration, AI, observability, decision velocity, or selective autonomy, I would be glad to provide the complete client edition and discuss the implications for your logistics operating model and technology architecture.

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o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions

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Supply chain decision-making is difficult partly because the relevant information is distributed across products, locations, suppliers, orders, capacities, policies, and external events. A system may have access to all of those records and still struggle to understand the relationships among them quickly enough to support a consequential decision.

o9 Solutions addresses that problem through its Digital Brain architecture, including an enterprise knowledge graph and in-memory modeling designed to connect demand, supply, inventory, planning, and operating context. That semantic layer is important because it gives analytics and AI a structured representation of how supply chain entities relate to one another rather than treating the environment as a collection of independent tables and documents.

The company combines this architecture with integrated planning, optimization, scenario modeling, machine learning, and human oversight. The strategic direction is toward a continuous decision environment where changes can be interpreted quickly, alternatives can be modeled, and recommendations can be traced back to the assumptions, events, and constraints that produced them.

As with any broad planning and intelligence platform, the value depends on implementation quality. Knowledge models need strong data governance, entity resolution, process ownership, and clear decision rights. A sophisticated model of the supply chain is useful only if the organization can keep it current and use it consistently in real operating workflows.

o9 Solutions appears in the Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The two MarketMaps highlight the relationship between integrated decision intelligence and the faster exception-response capabilities now developing around it.

The post o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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AI Will Not Transform the Supply Chain Until the Architecture Around It Catches Up

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Executive thesis. The model is becoming the least durable layer of the AI stack. Sustainable advantage will come from the operating architecture around AI: authoritative context, governed tools, permissions, observability, and connection to enterprise workflows.

The model is only one component

Supply chain AI discussions often begin with model capability: prediction accuracy, reasoning quality, computer vision performance, or the fluency of a generative system. Those capabilities matter, but operational value depends on everything around the model. The system still needs authoritative context, enterprise tools, permissions, workflow, observability, and a reliable path from recommendation to action.

Different AI patterns solve different problems

Prediction, optimization, generative AI, vision, and agents should not be treated as interchangeable technologies. Forecasting demand, selecting a route, extracting information from a document, interpreting an image, and executing a multi-step workflow require different evidence, control, and performance measures. A mature architecture starts with the decision or task and chooses the AI pattern that fits it.

Context is the operating fuel

An AI system can produce a plausible answer while using stale or incomplete operational context. In logistics, that can be dangerous because the truth may reside across orders, inventory, rates, carrier status, warehouse state, supplier records, and policy documents. Retrieval, master data, identity resolution, and system access therefore become part of the AI architecture, not secondary data-engineering concerns.

Tool access turns intelligence into consequence

The moment an AI system can create a shipment, change an order, contact a carrier, release inventory, or approve an exception, governance becomes an operational requirement. Tool permissions, financial limits, approval gates, idempotency, retries, and rollback are the mechanisms that separate an interesting demonstration from a dependable production workflow.

Measure workflow performance

A fluent response is not the right success metric for operational AI. Supply chain leaders should measure decision latency, manual context gathering, exception closure, override behavior, error recovery, tool failure, and the business outcome being improved. That measurement discipline also creates a rational basis for expanding autonomy as evidence accumulates.

The Logistics Viewpoints AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide separates the major AI patterns and connects them to data, tools, governance, workflow, observability, and ROI—the architecture required to move from model capability to operating value.

Executive implication

AI strategy should separate model selection from control architecture and measure value through workflow performance, decision quality, and operational outcomes.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. AI & Advanced Analytics connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

Download: AI in the Supply Chain — From Architecture to Execution
The New Architecture of Logistics

Go Deeper

Read the full AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide.

Explore the broader AI & Advanced Analytics domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

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