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Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update

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Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 48% to $2,958/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 3% to $3,513/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 9% to $2,492/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 24% to $2,837/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 4% to $6.30/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 6% to $3.92/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly increased 9% to $2.18/kg.

Analysis

The US Supreme Court heard arguments last week in the appeal of lower court decisions that invalidated President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose fentanyl-related and reciprocal tariffs this year.

Questions and comments made by justices during the hearing gave the impression that the court is likely to rule against the administration. While there’s speculation that a decision could come as soon as the end of the year, the court has until the end of its term in June to issue a ruling.

Striking down this use of IEEPA could potentially open a low-tariff window for arriving goods from many countries. But the White House will certainly be motivated to close that window quickly and re-establish duties using other more-recognized legal paths for country-specific tariffs. These options include a trade law empowering the president to apply immediate 15% country-specific tariffs for 150 days which the administration could use as a first step to restoring tariffs through other means.

East-West ocean rates increased significantly on most lanes via November 1st General Rate Increases last week. Transpacific prices to the West Coast climbed 48% and $1,000/FEU to about $3,000/FEU, but daily rates so far this week are trending down slightly and rates to the East Coast remained about even with October levels.

There are reports indicating prices could fall back to their late October levels soon, which were themselves pushed up from year lows hit in early October via GRIs. Some carriers are announcing additional blanked sailings for the transpacific this month in moves to at least keep rates from backsliding to recent lows.

The current low demand period poses a challenge to carrier GRI ambitions. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import report estimates October volumes sagged to about even with the previous lows for the year hit in May and June when US tariffs on China were at 145%. The report also projects that demand will ease further in November and December with double digit monthly decreases compared to last year as tariff frontloading has meant declining volumes since mid-August.

US ocean imports are expected to rebound during the lead up to Lunar New Year in January and early February, but these months are also projected to be down significantly year on year due to comparisons with Q1 2025 when frontloading began.

Asia – Europe rates climbed 9% to about $2,500/FEU last week with prices to the Mediterranean up 24% to $2,837/FEU on November GRIs. Some carriers have announced mid-month GRIs aiming to increase rates to the $3k/FEU mark for Asia-Europe as the long-term contract tendering season gets underway for this lane.

But in addition to the low demand challenge, carriers are also contending with continued fleet growth and climbing overcapacity. While Red Sea diversions last year were enough to keep rates well above long term norms, the monthly global rate benchmark has been lower year on year since March even as volumes have grown overall in 2025. A container traffic return to the Red Sea will, after a transition period, exacerbate the supply surplus. Reports this week of Houthis declaring an end to Red Sea attacks and carriers meeting with Suez Canal officials may mean the return to the Suez is getting closer.

In air cargo, the US government shutdown – which could end soon – has led to a shortage of air traffic controllers and the phase in of a 10% reduction in flights in the US which is disrupting domestic passenger travel and bellyhold air cargo operations along with it.

But as domestic freighters and international flights – which account for the bulk of the US air cargo market – are spared for now, the overall impact on air cargo should be minimal. Once the shutdown ends, airlines are expected to be able to restart their full flight schedules within 12-36 hours. Despite the delays, Freightos Air Index intra-North America rates have stayed stable at about $1.60/kg.

Changes to the US de minimis rules back in May meant a sharp initial drop in China-US e-commerce air cargo volumes, though recent data shows a gradual rebound in volumes since then as e-comm platforms adjust to the new rules – though not back to levels when de minimis was available.

Asia – Europe e-commerce air cargo volumes have shown nearly uninterrupted growth throughout the year as China’s e-commerce giants shifted focus to US alternatives, especially markets where de minimis exceptions are still in place. But there have been multiple signs of opposition to the flood of low cost goods entering these markets, including in the EU. Just this week France announced increased inspections of all e-commerce imports which is leading to backlogs at CDG.

But as has been the case since May, capacity shifts have meant that despite year on year volume declines transpacific rates remain elevated even if moderately below 2024 levels. China-US rates increased 4% to $6.30/kg last week on some likely peak season demand bump though prices were at about $7.00/kg last year. Likewise, despite volume growth, China-Europe rates which were at $3.92/kg last week, are about on par with prices in 2024.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The post Ocean rates climb – for now – on GRIs despite demand slump; Red Sea return coming soon? – November 11, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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From Deluges to Dry Beds: How Extreme Weather is Rewriting Logistics Strategy

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From Deluges To Dry Beds: How Extreme Weather Is Rewriting Logistics Strategy

Historically, supply chain managers viewed extreme weather as a series of isolated, unlinked headaches, a temporary detour here, a delayed container vessel there. But recent events are proving that climate-driven disruptions are no longer isolated events; they are systemic, compounding risks occurring simultaneously. Right now, global logistics are caught in a bizarre paradox of water volatility: inland waterways are concurrently shutting down due to both catastrophic flooding and severe drought.

The Current Snapshot:

In the United States, flash flooding across Missouri and the wider Ohio and Tennessee river valleys has completely knocked out regional road networks, forced emergency evacuations, and pushed the Black River to a projected record crest of 28 feet. Thunderstorms piled on top of each other to dump between 6 and 12 inches of rain across southern Missouri, with some areas near Miaoli receiving nearly 31 inches (80 cm) of downpour. The deluge tore a woman’s home entirely from its foundation, claiming her life, while the Army National Guard had to deploy Black Hawk helicopters to rescue more than 200 children and staff trapped at a summer camp in Lesterville. These slow-moving storms have brought regional last-mile and freight networks to a halt.

Across the Pacific, Typhoon Bavi just battered Taiwan and East China, forcing massive evacuations of over 2 million people and completely disrupting cargo handling and air freight at major hubs like Shanghai, where airlines canceled more than 680 flights. Yet, while parts of the world are drowning, Europe’s most critical commercial artery is choked by a severe mid-summer heatwave. On July 13th, water levels at the critical Kaub chokepoint on the Rhine plummeted to 53cm, well below the 81cm threshold where standard low-water surcharges apply. Freight barges are currently restricted to carrying just 20% of their total capacity, forcing operators to move volumes by individual agreement only. This near-standstill has triggered a massive, expensive migration of freight onto an already maxed-out rail and road infrastructure.

The Strategic Shift: Redundancy is Dead, Dynamic Flex is In

This dual reality underscores a massive trend shaping supply chain management: the shift from static risk planning to dynamic execution. When a primary inland waterway fails, you cannot simply rely on a fixed backup plan, because your backup mode (whether it is rail hubs restricted by local congestion or trucking lanes blocked by flash floods) is likely facing its own climate or operational constraints.

To endure this era of unforeseen climate events, logistics leaders are focusing on three main areas:

Mode Elasticity: Building contractual agility into carrier agreements so that switching from barge to rail, or air to ocean, can happen in hours rather than weeks.
Predictive Visibility Beyond Tier 1: Moving past simple track-and-trace. True resilience requires mapping out how weather events three states over will impact infrastructure, labor availability, and warehouse productivity downstream.
Climate as a Network Design Parameter: Historically, networks were designed almost purely around labor costs, tax incentives, and transit times. Network optimization models must now ingest historical climate data and predictive models as core constraints when choosing warehouse locations and routing strategies.

As the current El Niño cycle threatens to further scramble global rainfall and temperature patterns, the old playbook of waiting out the storm is officially obsolete. Volatility is the new baseline, and the competitive advantage belongs to the networks built to flex.

The post From Deluges to Dry Beds: How Extreme Weather is Rewriting Logistics Strategy appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Defense Drones Are Becoming an Industrial Supply Chain Race

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Ondas’ acquisition of DZYNE shows why competitive advantage in autonomous systems is shifting from technical demonstrations toward component security, modular design, manufacturing scale, and supplier integration.

The defense-drone market is moving from technical experimentation to industrialization.

Companies still need better aircraft, autonomy software, sensors, communications systems, and counter-drone technologies. But as governments prepare to purchase autonomous systems in much larger quantities, competitive advantage will increasingly depend on a different set of capabilities: securing components, expanding production, integrating acquired technologies, and supporting rapidly changing products at scale.

Ondas Holdings’ acquisition of DZYNE Technologies is an indication of that shift.

Ondas announced on July 6 that it had acquired DZYNE, a developer and manufacturer of autonomous aerial systems, surveillance platforms, and counter-UAS technologies. The transaction expands an Ondas portfolio that already includes automated drone operations, autonomous platforms, and systems designed to detect and counter unauthorized aircraft.

The immediate story is one of defense-technology consolidation. The more consequential story is industrial.

As demand for lower-cost autonomous systems grows, success will depend on more than which company develops the most advanced drone. It will depend on which companies can construct resilient supplier networks, standardize components, increase production volumes, manage product complexity, and adapt designs as technologies and operating requirements change.

The defense-drone race is becoming an industrial supply chain race.

From Technical Demonstration to Industrial Production

Defense technology companies have become highly effective at demonstrating new capabilities.

A startup can design a sophisticated autonomous aircraft, complete successful flight tests, and secure an initial government contract. That does not necessarily mean the company can produce thousands or tens of thousands of systems reliably and economically.

Scaling production introduces a different set of challenges.

Manufacturers must secure motors, batteries, cameras, processors, communications modules, navigation systems, electronic assemblies, composite materials, permanent magnets, and specialized sensors. Defense applications may also require component traceability, cybersecurity controls, approved suppliers, domestic-content compliance, and production processes that differ substantially from those used in commercial markets.

A technically successful platform can therefore encounter the same constraints seen across automotive, aerospace, electronics, and industrial-equipment supply chains: long lead times, limited supplier capacity, single-source dependencies, inconsistent quality, and inadequate visibility below the first tier.

Those risks become more serious when demand increases quickly.

The proposed fiscal year 2026 defense budget requested $13.4 billion for autonomy and autonomous systems, including $9.4 billion for unmanned and remotely operated aerial vehicles. The request illustrates the size of the potential demand signal now forming around autonomous defense systems.

Large procurement budgets, however, do not automatically create the industrial capacity required to fulfill them.

A Drone Is Also a Network of Supply Chain Dependencies

The relative simplicity and low unit cost of some small drones can obscure the complexity of the industrial base behind them.

Compared with a conventional military aircraft, an individual drone may be inexpensive and comparatively easy to assemble. Yet its components may come from a globally dispersed and highly concentrated supplier network.

Dependencies can include battery materials, electric motors, rare-earth magnets, semiconductors, carbon-fiber materials, communications equipment, cameras, circuit boards, and lower-level electronic assemblies.

These dependencies create both commercial and strategic risks.

A manufacturer may be able to obtain components economically under normal market conditions but lose access when export controls, trade restrictions, geopolitical tensions, or competing domestic demand intervene. The unavailability of a relatively inexpensive motor, magnet, sensor, or battery component can delay delivery of an entire system.

Research from the Center for Strategic and International Studies has identified rare-earth magnets, carbon-fiber materials, lithium-ion inputs, semiconductors, and other upstream materials as potential chokepoints in the drone industrial base. The analysis also highlights the lack of visibility below many first-tier defense contractors.

The implication is significant.

The strategic value of a drone manufacturer is not limited to its aircraft designs, software, or patents. It also includes its qualified supplier base, access to critical materials, manufacturing processes, contract-production relationships, testing infrastructure, and ability to replace unavailable components without redesigning the entire system.

These capabilities are harder to see than a successful flight demonstration, but they may ultimately determine which companies can deliver at scale.

M&A as Industrial Integration

The Ondas-DZYNE transaction reflects a broader effort to assemble complementary autonomous-system capabilities within larger corporate platforms.

DZYNE adds long-endurance aircraft, smaller autonomous systems, surveillance capabilities, counter-UAS technologies, modular airframe expertise, and established defense-customer relationships. Ondas brings additional autonomous platforms, drone infrastructure, security applications, and corporate resources.

The strategic logic extends beyond expanding the product catalog.

An integrated company may be able to combine engineering teams, share software architectures, consolidate suppliers, increase purchasing leverage, coordinate manufacturing investment, and offer customers a broader group of interoperable systems.

It may also be able to spread the costs of compliance, testing, cybersecurity, government contracting, and business development across a larger revenue base.

These potential advantages are especially important in a market where individual products may change rapidly.

The successful autonomous-defense company may not be the one with a single dominant aircraft. It may be the company with an industrial architecture capable of supporting several types of systems while reusing common components, software, communications technologies, manufacturing processes, and supplier relationships.

That begins to resemble a supply chain platform rather than a traditional aerospace program.

Modular Architecture Becomes a Supply Chain Capability

Autonomous systems are evolving much faster than conventional defense platforms.

New processors, sensors, communications technologies, electronic-warfare systems, navigation capabilities, and software functions can emerge within months. A design optimized for one operating environment may quickly require a different payload, communications module, navigation system, or method of avoiding interference.

Manufacturers therefore need product architectures that support rapid change.

A modular design can allow a company to replace a sensor, processor, battery, motor, or communications module without redesigning the entire aircraft. Standardized interfaces can also make it easier to qualify alternative suppliers when a component becomes unavailable or fails to meet cost, security, or performance requirements.

This is both an engineering strategy and a supply chain strategy.

Modularity can reduce dependence on individual components, support multisourcing, simplify product upgrades, and separate stable elements of a platform from technologies that will change frequently.

It can also reduce the disruption created by export restrictions, obsolescence, supplier failures, and sudden increases in demand.

Companies that manage this effectively will be better positioned to balance technological innovation with manufacturability. Those that do not may find themselves repeatedly redesigning products around unavailable components or operating separate, inefficient supply chains for every platform they develop or acquire.

Consolidation Does Not Automatically Create Scale

Acquisitions can create the appearance of industrial scale without delivering it.

Combining several autonomous-system companies may produce a broad technology portfolio, but it can also create duplicated suppliers, incompatible software, fragmented engineering practices, overlapping products, and multiple low-volume manufacturing processes.

The most important post-acquisition work will therefore occur well below the level of the corporate announcement.

Management will need to determine which components can be standardized, which suppliers can support higher volumes, which manufacturing processes can be shared, and which products should remain operationally independent.

It will also need to decide where vertical integration provides a meaningful advantage.

Some components may be strategically important enough to manufacture internally. Others may be better obtained from specialized suppliers. Still others may require domestic or allied capacity that does not yet exist at an acceptable cost or volume.

The strongest consolidators will not simply accumulate technologies. They will rationalize the industrial systems behind them.

That will require common product-development standards, shared supplier data, coordinated sourcing, manufacturing visibility, and disciplined decisions about which platforms continue to receive investment.

Without that integration, a larger portfolio may simply create a larger collection of low-volume supply chains.

Procurement Must Change Alongside Manufacturing

Manufacturers are only one side of the industrial equation.

Government procurement systems must also adapt to a market in which technologies change quickly and production volume may matter as much as the performance of an individual platform.

Traditional defense purchasing can take years to define requirements, evaluate contractors, select a platform, and establish a long-term program. That approach is difficult to reconcile with autonomous systems that may require frequent software updates, component substitutions, or redesigns based on operational feedback.

The fiscal year 2026 budget discussion itself acknowledged the need for more agile funding across unmanned systems, counter-UAS, and electronic warfare because the technologies and available industry capabilities are evolving rapidly.

The challenge is to increase speed without abandoning security, quality, traceability, interoperability, and operational reliability.

That may require shorter purchasing cycles, continuous testing, modular requirements, larger pools of qualified suppliers, and contracts that allow systems to evolve after initial deployment.

It may also require buyers to evaluate vendors differently.

A successful technical demonstration remains important. But procurement decisions may need to place greater weight on production readiness, supplier resilience, component provenance, manufacturing yield, workforce capacity, and the ability to sustain deliveries over time.

The ability to build 100 systems is not evidence that a company can build 10,000.

Domestic Production Is Both an Economic and Security Objective

U.S. policy increasingly treats domestic drone manufacturing as both a commercial-industrial priority and a national-security concern.

A June 2025 executive order called for expanding domestic drone production, reducing reliance on foreign sources, strengthening critical supply chains, prioritizing compliant American-made systems, and securing the supply chain against foreign control or exploitation.

The objective is clear. Execution will be difficult.

Rebuilding domestic capacity involves more than opening final-assembly plants. A drone assembled in the United States may still depend on imported batteries, motor magnets, semiconductor devices, imaging systems, circuit boards, or raw materials.

A durable domestic strategy must therefore look several tiers into the supply chain.

It must identify which dependencies create unacceptable risk, where allied sourcing is sufficient, where domestic production is economically feasible, and where strategic inventories or long-term purchasing commitments may be necessary.

Demand visibility will be essential.

Suppliers are unlikely to invest in new factories, tooling, automation, and specialized labor based on a sequence of small or uncertain contracts. Government customers may need to provide clearer multiyear demand signals while preserving enough flexibility to avoid locking procurement into technologies that become obsolete.

This creates a difficult balance between scale and adaptability.

Manufacturers need stable demand to invest in capacity. Buyers need enough flexibility to incorporate new technology. The industrial model must support both.

The Emerging Competitive Model

The next generation of autonomous-defense companies will compete across several dimensions simultaneously.

They will compete on technology, but also on cost, speed, manufacturability, component availability, software integration, supplier resilience, and production capacity.

They will need to manage product development like technology companies while operating supply chains more like automotive, electronics, or industrial-equipment manufacturers.

That combination will favor companies capable of building common architectures across multiple systems.

It will also favor companies that can convert acquisitions into operational integration rather than allowing each acquired business to remain a separate collection of products, suppliers, engineering standards, and manufacturing processes.

The Ondas-DZYNE transaction is unlikely to be the last of its kind.

As autonomous systems move from specialized programs toward broader deployment, larger companies will continue acquiring technologies, engineering talent, production capabilities, and supplier relationships that would take years to build internally.

But assembling a portfolio is not the same as building an industrial system.

The winners will be the companies that standardize components, rationalize suppliers, design for substitution, integrate manufacturing, and convert rapidly changing technology into reliable production volume.

The next phase of the defense-drone market will not be determined by innovation alone.

It will be determined by who can industrialize it.

The post Defense Drones Are Becoming an Industrial Supply Chain Race appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Logistics Viewpoints Expands Its Supply Chain Resource Library

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The growing collection now includes strategic white papers, market-research executive summaries, advisory guides, and supplier visibility programs spanning AI, energy, cybersecurity, transportation, warehousing, and global trade.

As of July 2026, Logistics Viewpoints offers more than two dozen downloadable resources for supply chain executives, technology providers, and industry professionals.

The library has expanded beyond traditional market research to include strategic white papers on emerging operating issues, executive summaries covering major supply chain technology markets, guides to ARC Advisory Group research and advisory services, and commercial programs designed to help suppliers reach a targeted industry audience.

Together, these materials provide a practical starting point for organizations evaluating new technologies, assessing market opportunities, strengthening supply chain resilience, or building greater visibility in the market.

Strategic Supply Chain White Papers

The strategic white-paper collection focuses on issues that are reshaping how supply chains are designed, managed, and governed.

AI in the Supply Chain: Architecting the Future of Logistics with A2A, MCP, and Graph-Enhanced Reasoning

This paper examines the emerging architecture behind enterprise AI systems, including agent-to-agent communication, Model Context Protocol, knowledge graphs, and graph-enhanced reasoning.

Download the AI architecture white paper

AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution

The second AI paper moves from architecture to deployment. It explores the decision intelligence layer needed to connect AI systems with enterprise data, workflows, governance, and supply chain execution platforms.

Download AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution

Oil & Gas in the Supply Chain

Oil and gas remain critical inputs across transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, chemicals, and industrial production. This paper examines how organizations can build more resilient and responsible supply chains amid geopolitical risk, price volatility, infrastructure constraints, and environmental pressure.

Download Oil & Gas in the Supply Chain

Cyber Resilience in the Supply Chain

This paper examines how organizations can strengthen supply chain resilience against cyber threats that extend across internal systems, connected equipment, suppliers, logistics partners, and technology providers.

Download Cyber Resilience in the Supply Chain

Sustainability in the Supply Chain

The sustainability paper explores how companies can balance environmental goals with operational efficiency, resilience, supplier management, and regulatory compliance.

Download Sustainability in the Supply Chain

Energy in the Supply Chain

Energy cost, availability, and reliability influence transportation, manufacturing, warehousing, and network design. This paper considers how supply chains can better manage energy volatility and changing infrastructure requirements.

Download Energy in the Supply Chain

Connected Vehicles and V2X in the Supply Chain

This paper examines how connected vehicles, infrastructure, devices, and logistics platforms may improve transportation visibility, coordination, and responsiveness.

Download the Connected Vehicles and V2X white paper

Market-Research Executive Summaries

The Logistics Viewpoints library also includes executive summaries of major supply chain software and automation markets. These downloads provide concise introductions to market structure, technology capabilities, adoption patterns, and competitive dynamics.

Available summaries include:

Supply Chain Planning Global Outlook

Transportation Management Systems

Transportation Execution Systems

Warehouse Management Systems

Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems

Autonomous Mobile Robots

Omnichannel Order Management Systems

Global Trade Management Solutions

Global Trade Compliance Systems

Supply Chain Management Market Opportunity

These resources are particularly useful for executives seeking a concise overview before beginning a more detailed technology evaluation or market assessment.

Research and Advisory Guides

Organizations that require deeper analysis can also download guides describing ARC Advisory Group research and advisory services.

Custom Market Research Guide

This guide explains how tailored research can support market sizing, competitive analysis, customer research, technology assessments, and strategic planning.

Download the Custom Market Research Guide

Annual Contract Advisory Service Overview

The annual advisory service provides ongoing access to analysts, market insight, research, and strategic guidance.

Download the Annual Contract Advisory Service Overview

Voice of the Customer Survey Guide

This guide explains how structured customer research can help suppliers understand buyer priorities, customer satisfaction, market perception, and unmet needs.

Download the Voice of the Customer Survey Guide

Standard Market Research Report Guide

This guide outlines the structure, methodology, and business applications of ARC Advisory Group’s standard market research reports.

Download the Standard Market Research Report Guide

Sponsorship and Supplier Visibility Programs

Logistics Viewpoints also offers several programs for technology providers and service companies seeking greater visibility among supply chain executives.

Available program guides include:

Logistics Viewpoints Sponsorship Program

Sponsored Webinar Program

Sponsored Podcast Program

Supplier Spotlight Program

ARC Industry Forum Sponsorship

These programs combine industry content, analyst participation, and targeted audience access to help suppliers communicate their market position and expertise.

A Broader Supply Chain Knowledge Platform

The expansion of the Logistics Viewpoints resource library reflects a broader shift in the publication’s role.

Logistics Viewpoints remains an editorial platform covering supply chain technology, market developments, and operating strategy. The growing download library extends that role by giving readers access to more structured research, strategic frameworks, market summaries, and practical service guides.

Executives can use the library to explore emerging issues such as artificial intelligence, cyber resilience, energy, and connected transportation. They can also access established research on planning, transportation, warehousing, automation, order management, and global trade.

Technology suppliers can use the commercial guides to evaluate available research, advisory, webinar, podcast, sponsorship, and supplier visibility opportunities.

The collection will continue to expand as new white papers, market summaries, and program materials are published.

Readers can visit the Logistics Viewpoints White Papers library for the latest additions.

The post Logistics Viewpoints Expands Its Supply Chain Resource Library appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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