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Ocean rates tick up to close the year as air peak fades – December 30, 2025 Update

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Ocean rates tick up to close the year as air peak fades – December 30, 2025 Update

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Published: December 30, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 1% to $2,145/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 10% to $3,364/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 1% to $2,742/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 4% to $4,004/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 16% to $6.26/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 5% to $3.52/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 14% to $2.16/kg.

Analysis

Ocean rates on the major East-West lanes trended up to close the year. Asia – Europe prices increased 1% last week to $2,742/FEU but are 12% higher than mid-month and are up to levels last seen at the tail end of peak season. Asia – Mediterranean rates climbed 4% to reach the $4,000/FEU mark for the first time since early July, with prices 20% higher than during the first half of the month.

Current rate levels are supported by an early start to pre-Lunar New Year demand on these lanes as shippers face longer lead times due to Red Sea diversions. As such, prices are likely to stay elevated or continue climbing as we get closer to the holiday.

Periodic GRIs since October have generally been less successful in keeping rates elevated for very long on transpacific lanes than they’ve been for Asia – Europe trades. Price hikes since mid-December have pushed West Coast rates up 9% to $2,145/FEU and raised prices to the East Coast 15% to $3,364/FEU. But rates will be under upward pressure when transpacific pre-LNY demand picks up, and prices increased to start both 2024 and 2025. The holiday begins later than usual – February 17th – this year, which could mean another rate slide in the near term before demand increases. But if volumes do start to rise to start the new year, rate levels should keep climbing too.

Despite transpacific ocean import contractions and an overall dip in US ocean imports due to the trade war this year, ex-Asia volume strength to Europe, Africa and LATAM – as China diversified trading partners – saw global volumes grow 4% through early Q4.

S&P projects US ocean imports will fall again, by 2%, in 2026, making 2025-2026 – after the 2008-2009 financial crisis years and the 2022 – 2023 unwind from the pandemic – the third instance of consecutive years of US container import contraction over the last two decades. Like this year, observers like BIMCO expect global volumes will continue to grow nonetheless.

Freightos Air Index shows air cargo rates fading post peak season. China-US prices fell 16% to about $6.25/kg, its lowest level since early November. South East Asia – US rates fell 19% to $4.60/kg and transatlantic prices dropped 14% to $2.16/kg. China – Europe prices slid 5% to $3.52/kg and SEA – Europe rates decreased more than 20% to $3.12/kg.

IATA estimates that – after sharp, e-commerce-driven, 11% growth in 2024 – 2025 global air volumes will be 3.1% stronger than last year. IATA also expects this year’s resilience to stretch into 2026 in the form of 2.6% annual growth. Opinions differ as to whether cargo capacity growth will outpace volume growth next year or not, making rate projections for next year difficult as well.

Best wishes for a happy new year

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The Home Depot Buys SIMPL Automation to Speed Fulfillment and Tighten DC Performance

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The deal signals a continued push to use automation, AI, and denser storage design to improve delivery speed, labor efficiency, and product availability.

The Home Depot has acquired SIMPL Automation, a Massachusetts-based provider of warehouse automation and technology systems, as the retailer continues to invest in faster, more efficient fulfillment operations.

The move follows a pilot at Home Depot’s Locust Grove, Georgia distribution center. According to the company, the pilot improved pick speed, shortened cycle times, and reduced product touches. SIMPL also brings a patented storage and retrieval solution designed to increase storage density inside the distribution center. That should help Home Depot position more high-demand inventory closer to the customer and support faster delivery.

“We’re focused on providing the best interconnected experience in home improvement by having products in stock and ready to deliver to our customers whether it’s to the home or jobsite,” said Amit Kalra, senior vice president of supply chain at The Home Depot. “By bringing SIMPL’s industry-leading automation into our operations, we’re accelerating the flow of products through our distribution network to deliver with unprecedented speed and precision.”

The strategic logic is straightforward. Retailers are under continued pressure to improve service levels while also protecting margins. That makes distribution center automation more than a labor story. It is now tied directly to throughput, storage utilization, inventory positioning, and delivery performance.

Home Depot framed the acquisition as part of a broader supply chain innovation agenda that includes AI-powered inventory management, advanced analytics, mobile technology, automation, and live delivery tracking. SIMPL fits neatly into that effort. Its value is not just in automating tasks, but in improving the overall flow of goods through the network.

This matters because fulfillment speed is increasingly determined inside the four walls. Faster picks, fewer touches, and denser storage can materially improve network responsiveness without requiring entirely new infrastructure. In that sense, the acquisition is not just about mechanization. It is about tighter execution.

There is also a second point worth noting. Home Depot is acquiring a capability it already tested in its own environment. That lowers adoption risk and suggests this was not a speculative technology purchase. It was an operationally validated one.

For supply chain leaders, this is another sign that warehouse automation is becoming a more central part of retail network strategy. The winners will not simply automate for its own sake. They will deploy automation where it improves flow, reduces friction, and helps place the right inventory closer to demand.

The post The Home Depot Buys SIMPL Automation to Speed Fulfillment and Tighten DC Performance appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Strait of Hormuz Reopens to Commercial Shipping, but Risk to Global Trade Remains

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Iran says commercial traffic can resume through the Strait of Hormuz during the 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, sending oil prices sharply lower. But with U.S. pressure on Iranian shipping still in place and shipowners seeking operational clarity, this is a partial reopening, not a return to normal.

Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping for the duration of the current ceasefire, a move that immediately eased market fears over one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Oil prices fell sharply on the news. The market response was rational: even a temporary reopening of Hormuz reduces the near-term risk of a sustained disruption to crude and LNG flows.

But supply chain leaders should be careful not to read this as full normalization.

President Donald Trump said commercial passage is open, while also stating that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ships and ports will remain in force until a broader agreement is reached. That leaves a meaningful contradiction in place. Merchant traffic may resume, but the broader security and enforcement environment remains unsettled.

That uncertainty is showing up quickly in shipping behavior. Carriers and shipowners are still looking for details on routing, mine risk, and practical transit conditions before treating the corridor as fully operational. Iran has indicated that vessels will need to follow coordinated routes, which suggests controlled passage rather than a clean restoration of normal maritime traffic.

There is also internal ambiguity in Iran’s messaging. Outlets tied to the IRGC criticized the foreign minister’s statement as incomplete, arguing that open commercial passage cannot be viewed in isolation while U.S. pressure on Iranian shipping continues. That matters because inconsistent signaling raises risk for carriers, insurers, and cargo owners trying to assess whether this is a stable operating environment or a temporary political pause.

For logistics and supply chain executives, the core point is straightforward: the immediate shock risk has eased, but corridor risk has not disappeared.

Hormuz is not just an oil story. It is a systemwide trade artery. Any disruption, or even the credible threat of disruption, can affect tanker availability, marine insurance costs, vessel scheduling, fuel assumptions, and downstream manufacturing economics. Friday’s drop in oil prices reflects relief. It does not yet reflect restored certainty.

The next question is whether commercial transits resume at scale and without incident. If they do, energy markets may continue to retrace. If routing restrictions, mine concerns, or military signaling reintroduce hesitation, volatility will return quickly.

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Why Enterprise AI Systems Fail: It’s Not RAG – It’s Context Control

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Enterprise AI systems are not failing because of poor retrieval or weak models. They are failing because they cannot control what actually enters the model’s context window.

The Pattern Is Becoming Familiar

Enterprise teams are following a familiar path with AI. They build a retrieval-augmented generation pipeline, connect internal data, tune prompts, and get early results that look promising. For a while, the system appears to work. Then performance starts to slip. Responses become less consistent. Important details fall out. The system loses continuity across turns. What looked sharp in a demo begins to feel unreliable in practice.

This is usually blamed on retrieval. In many cases, that diagnosis is wrong.

The Breakdown Comes After Retrieval

RAG solves an important problem. It helps a system find relevant documents and ground responses in enterprise data. But it does not determine what happens after retrieval. That is where many systems begin to fail.

In production, the model is not dealing with one clean document and one neatly phrased request. It is dealing with overlapping retrieved materials, accumulated conversation history, fixed token limits, and source content of uneven quality. At that point, the issue is no longer whether the system found something relevant. The issue is what actually makes it into the model, what gets left out, and how the remaining context is organized.

Most enterprise systems do not manage this step very well. They simply keep passing information forward until the context window starts to strain. When that happens, the model does not fail gracefully. It becomes selective in ways the enterprise did not intend. Relevant constraints disappear. Redundant information crowds out useful information. Continuity weakens. The answers can still sound polished, but they stop holding up operationally.

What This Looks Like on the Ground

This shows up quickly in supply chain settings. A planning assistant may retrieve the right demand and inventory signals, but lose a constraint that was discussed earlier in the interaction. The answer still looks reasonable, but it is no longer actionable. A procurement copilot may surface supplier information, yet carry forward redundant materials while excluding the one contract clause that mattered. A control tower assistant may retrieve prior exceptions, shipment updates, and current alerts, but present too much information with too little prioritization. In each case, retrieval technically worked. The system still failed.

The Missing Control Layer

The missing layer is the one between retrieval and prompting. There needs to be an explicit control step that determines what stays, what gets removed, what gets compressed, and how the available space is allocated. This is not prompt engineering, and it is not simply retrieval tuning. It is context control.

That control layer includes several practical functions. Retrieved materials often need to be re-ranked because not every document deserves equal weight. Conversation history needs to be filtered because not every prior interaction should remain active in the model’s working set. Relevant content often needs to be compressed so that it fits within system constraints without losing meaning. And above all, token budgets need to be treated as an architectural issue, not just a technical limitation.

Memory Usually Fails First

Memory is often where the problem becomes visible first. Many systems handle multi-turn interaction with a simple sliding window. They keep the last few turns and discard the rest. That sounds reasonable until an older but still important piece of context disappears while a newer but less useful interaction remains. Stronger systems do not rely on blunt recency alone. They apply weighted retention so that important context persists longer, low-value context fades, and relevance to the current task matters more than simple position in the conversation. Without that, continuity breaks down quickly.

Token Limits Are Not a Side Issue

Token budgets are often treated as a background technical constraint. In practice, they shape system behavior. If priorities are not explicit, the system will make implicit tradeoffs under pressure. Some architectures handle this more effectively by reserving space in a disciplined order: first the system prompt, then filtered memory, then retrieved content compressed to fit what remains. That sounds like a small design choice, but it prevents a surprising number of failure modes.

Why This Matters in Supply Chains

This matters more in supply chains than in many other domains because supply chain work is rarely a single-turn exercise. It is multi-step, multi-system, and time-dependent. AI systems must maintain continuity across decisions, exceptions, and changing conditions. That requires structured context, not just access to data. This aligns with the broader shift toward context-aware AI architectures in supply chains, where continuity and memory are foundational to performance .

In many environments, this failure mode is already present. It just has not been isolated yet. Teams see inconsistent outputs and assume the problem is the model, the prompt, or the retriever. Often the deeper issue is that the model is seeing the wrong mix of context.

This Problem Gets Bigger From Here

That issue will become more important, not less, as enterprise architectures evolve. Agent-based systems need shared context. Persistent memory layers increase the volume of available information. Graph-based reasoning expands the number of relationships a system may need to consider. All of that increases pressure on context selection. None of it removes the problem.

The Real Takeaway

The central point is straightforward. RAG gets the right documents. Prompting shapes the response. Context control determines whether the system works at all.

Most teams are still focused on the first two. In many enterprise deployments today, the third is already where systems are breaking.

The post Why Enterprise AI Systems Fail: It’s Not RAG – It’s Context Control appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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