The year 2025 was another tumultuous one for both ocean and air freight markets. Some of the key drivers of freight trends in 2025 are likely to continue impacting markets in 2026, while others may give way to new factors and trends. What follows is a rundown of those key drivers in 2025, and data-based projections for what these could mean for the new year.
Check out our Global Freight 2025 Year in Review and 2026 Lookahead webinar here
Key Takeaways for 2026:
Trade war dynamics significantly disrupted transpacific ocean freight seasonality in 2025, with frontloading driving stronger H1 than H2 volumes and an overall volume dip for the year.
Global container volumes nonetheless grew as China diversified export markets. A more stable US tariff landscape suggests a likely return to freight seasonality in 2026 – though SCOTUS’s pending IEEPA ruling creates uncertainty – and growth globally even if US imports contract.
Fleet growth created oversupply despite continued Red Sea diversions – and drove consistently lower year on year rates in 2025 – a trend likely to continue into 2026 as new vessels continue to enter the market.
Carriers are also taking cautious steps toward a Red Sea return, increasing the likelihood of resumed Suez traffic in 2026; the transition will initially cause significant congestion and delays at European hubs as well as upward pressure on rates. Once the congestion unwinds though, the released capacity will exacerbate oversupply.
Air cargo proved resilient despite the trade war, both globally and to the US. The US de minimis closure for China initially caused a sharp decrease in transpac volumes; but by July, demand recovered to 2024 levels through e-commerce adjustments and increased general cargo from places like Vietnam where electronics exports have surged.
Volumes on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia and other air cargo lanes grew – even while transpacific volumes stalled, partly from Chinese exports shifting to other markets. IATA projects 2.6% global volume growth in 2026 as these trends are likely to continue.
Air cargo rates remained remarkably stable despite these volume shifts, following seasonal patterns and staying largely on par with 2024 levels as carriers rapidly redeployed capacity from transpacific to growing lanes like Asia-Europe. Agile capacity shifts are likely to temper rate fluctuations for 2026 as well.
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Ocean Freight – Tariffs, Capacity & Red Sea
Trade War Impacts
The US-initiated trade war that got underway in February 2025, with its shifting tariffs threats, deadlines, postponements and introductions skewed the typical seasonality of the transpacific ocean freight year.
Source: National Retail Federation, Global Port Tracker
Importers frontloaded or paused container bookings to try and beat or avoid higher costs from potential tariff changes. The start and stop meant stronger US ocean import volumes in the first half of the year and weaker volumes in H2, with uncertainty around consumer demand resulting in an overall 1.4% drop in container imports in 2025 according to the National Retail Federation.
Globally though, the trade war hasn’t proved a drag on container growth, with year to date global volumes through October growing more than 4% year on year global volumes according to CTS. The trade war indirectly spurred this growth by driving a diversification of destination markets for goods coming out of the Far East, especially from China as the manufacturing power sought and found export growth through markets other than the US.
China’s exports by value increased more than 5% year on year through November despite a sharp drop in exports to the US. Likewise, while Asia – N. America container volumes contracted by 2% through October, Asia – Europe demand grew 8.6%, with even stronger increases to Africa and LATAM.
By Q4 the US tariff landscape solidified via US trade agreements with many of its major trading partners, and a China – US deescalation agreement through November 2026. All else being equal then, these developments make the return of freight seasonality for N. America likely in 2026.
Uncertainty Ahead
However, the US Supreme Court is set to decide by July on the validity of the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for all of its country-specific tariffs. Though the White House has stated it is already preparing quick tariff introductions by other means should SCOTUS decide against it, there is some speculation that the administration, facing cost of living concerns, could use a court loss as a tariff off-ramp.
If the Supreme Court decision opens up a big enough low-tariff window, we could see frontloading once again. But if the government quickly restores tariffs through other means there shouldn’t be much of an impact on freight. Finally, if tariffs are removed and importers are convinced they aren’t coming back any time soon, we could see some initial increase in volumes – and stronger volumes overall – but not sudden starts and stops.
Globally, we could expect 2026 to look similar to 2025 in its overall growth, but also in its diversification and volume growth or contraction by lane. The S+P projects that 2026 US ocean imports will contract by 2% as tariff costs could start to impact importer decisions and consumer spending more strongly than in 2025. Meanwhile BIMCO estimates global volumes will increase by 2.5% to 3.5% nonetheless.
Red Sea Diversions, and a Growing Fleet
Red Sea diversions that started in late 2023 were estimated to have absorbed about 9% of global container capacity by keeping ships at sea for longer and – with longer journeys meaning vessels would arrive back at origins days behind schedule – via carriers adding extra vessels to services in order to maintain planned weekly departures.
This drain on capacity drove 2024 Asia – Europe and transpacific rates to peak season highs of $8,000 – $10,000/FEU and set a highly elevated floor of $3,000 – $5,000/FEU during low demand periods that year.
But even with Red Sea diversions continuing to absorb capacity in 2025, continued fleet growth through newly built vessels entering the market has meant that the container trade has already become significantly oversupplied. And this supply growth has meant consistently lower container rates in 2025 compared to 2024 even during months when volumes have been stronger, with prices on some lanes reaching 2023 levels for a span in early October.
Even with Red Sea diversions continuing and even during months in 2025 with stronger year on year volumes, capacity growth has meant rates in 2025 have been lower than in 2024.
But since November multiple major container carriers have taken cautious steps toward resuming Red Sea transits, increasing the likelihood of a Red Sea return in 2026.
When Red Sea traffic does resume it will cause worse and significant vessel bunching and congestion at European hubs, and likely drive equipment shortages at Far East origin ports as carriers seek to shorten vessel time spent at berth. The shift back will be disruptive and cause delays and rate increases – possibly across the market – whenever it occurs, though the effect would be weaker if the return is in the low demand, spring months post-LNY and pre-peak season, and stronger if it coincides with peak season demand increases, with this transition likely to stretch on for weeks.
Once that congestion unwinds though, the Red Sea return will increase the amount of capacity available in an already oversupplied market and put additional downward pressure on rates.. New vessel deliveries will decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, but the impact of the increase in supply on rates – even if Red Sea diversions continue – will likely be significant nonetheless, with higher levels of newbuild deliveries set for 2027 and 2028.
Carriers will face an even bigger capacity management challenge when Red Sea transits resume, but will do their best to reduce capacity – via blanked sailings, idling vessels, scrapping older ships, and slow steaming – and keep rates at profitable levels.
Air Cargo – De Minimis, Resiliency, Reshuffle
Trade war changes, shifting volumes
For air cargo, de minimis exemptions have been one significant factor facilitating the surge of low-cost B2C e-commerce volumes traveling by high cost air transport since about mid-2023 – mostly from China and mostly to Europe and the US.
At the end of 2024, IATA projected that global air cargo volumes would grow by more than 5% in 2025. But when US tariffs were introduced in April, followed by the US suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese exports in May, IATA lowered its expectations to less than 1% growth, anticipating a significant pull back in H2 volumes due to the closure of de minimis to China, and later, to all imports.
But, like in the container market, global volumes proved resilient, both through diversification of China’s exports to other markets as growth engines, and from trade war policies that spurred a shift in transpacific volume flows.
The US de minimis closure for China in May did indeed drive a sharp drop in air cargo imports – estimated at more than 40% for e-commerce imports by air from China to the US month on month in May, a drop of 12% in total Asia – N. America volumes month on month, and a more than 10% decrease year on year.
Source: IATA
Air cargo demand in 2025 grew despite transpacific volume contraction in H2 as volumes on other lanes continued to increase.
But by July, Asia – N. America volumes were back to about even with 2024 levels, pushed back up by some recovery of e-commerce volumes as e-comm platforms adjusted to the new rules, and increases in general cargo both from China and from other Far East manufacturing hubs, most notably Vietnam as electronics exports from there have surged as tariffs on China climbed.
And while transpacific volumes, even with this rebound, have shown no year on year growth in H2, demand on other lanes, especially Asia – Europe and intra-Asia, have shown double digit annual growth throughout the year as Chinese exports surge to markets other than the US, powering year to date global growth of 4% for international volumes through October.
That rate is much lower than the remarkable 11% annual growth seen as e-commerce become a dominant factor in the air cargo market in 2024. But this resiliency and diversification has led IATA to project 2.6% global volume growth in 2026 on expectations that the drivers of demand strength in 2025 will carry over into 2026.
Shifting capacity, more stable rates
Despite these substantial volume swings, Freightos Air Index data shows that air cargo rates followed seasonal trends – increases post-Lunar New Year, stability through the summer, and increases around the Q4 peak season – and remained about even with 2024 levels. This relative price stability alongside significant shifts in demand was due to carriers rapidly removing capacity from the transpacific as demand decreased and shifting it to lanes like Asia – Europe where demand was increasing sharply.
For the year, China to US and Europe rates were up 1% and 2% respectively, though rates were slightly stronger than in 2024 in H1 and slightly weaker in H2, reflecting the decrease in demand for China-US and the significant increase in capacity for China – Europe. Prices out of South East Asia meanwhile, showed double digit year on year gain in H1, while rates were lower year on year in H2, once again reflecting the substantial shift of capacity to these lanes as trade war impacts spurred demand increases out of these origins.
European Union countries announced intentions to close their de minimis exceptions by 2027, with the possibility to do so as early as 2026. The UK too announced a 2029 deadline to close their exemption. If these policies change we will likely see a similar short term dip in volumes, slower overall growth on those lanes. But even with these changes, e-commerce is unlikely to disappear from those lanes or from the skies in general.
