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Asia – Europe rates staying elevated on some early pre-LNY start – December 12, 2025 Update

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Asia – Europe rates staying elevated on some early pre-LNY start – December 12, 2025 Update

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Published: December 16, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 6% to $1,964/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 8% to $3,150/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $2,449/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 1% to $3,342/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $8.01/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 4% to $3.50/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $2.53/kg.

Analysis

Despite growing signs of ocean freight overcapacity, container rates on Asia – Europe lanes have maintained their increases from recent GRIs.

Asia – Mediterranean rates were level last week at $3,342/FEU after climbing 15% to start the month for its fourth consecutive successful GRI since mid-October, before which prices dipped to a year low of about $2,000/FEU.

Asia – N. Europe prices were stable last week at $2,449/FEU, and level with rates set in early November, but still well above its mid-October nadir of $1,700/FEU. For most of the last two months rates on these lanes have climbed bi-monthly via capacity reductions as demand eased. But carriers and forwarders are now reporting an uptick in demand as some shippers are getting an early start to pre-Lunar New Year ordering – a trend also seen in Asia – Europe rate behavior in 2023 and 2024 when December prices climbed sharply, possibly in response to Red Sea-driven longer lead times.

Carriers are now increasing capacity to meet demand, with some planning mid-month Asia – Europe and Mediterranean GRIs to the $4,200/FEU and $4,750/FEU levels respectively. Through October, year to date Asia – Europe volumes were up 8.6% according to CTS. December demand is likely stronger than last year as well, with some speculating that some shippers are expecting a return to the Red Sea soon and are therefore building inventory buffers now in expectation of disruptions. But even with both Red Sea diversions still in place and volume growth, spot rates have consistently been lower than last year. Current Asia – N. Europe rates are down 54% compared to last December, pointing to capacity growth as an important factor to current price levels.

On the transpacific meanwhile, even with capacity reductions – and additional blanked sailings announced for the coming weeks – carriers are having difficulty getting the series of recent GRIs to stick. Last week West Coast rates retreated 6% from a start of the month GRI bump, to $1,963/FEU. Prices to the East Coast increased 8% to $3,150/FEU this week, but are down 15% from a month ago. Even with these ups and downs, though, carriers have succeeded in keeping rates above October lows of $1,400/FEU and $3,000/FEU respectively, likely with benefits of higher rates for short periods in between the dips.

Slumping Q4 demand, in addition to growing fleets, is an important factor to rate levels, making planned mid-month GRIs unlikely to hold, and a more sustained rate rebound more likely only as we get closer to LNY. There are some indications that part of current demand levels is due to some US manufacturers pausing imports in the hopes that a Supreme Court decision invalidating IEEPA tariffs will come soon and result in lowered duties. Though the White House maintains that if IEEPA is struck down, it is ready to quickly restore tariffs by other means, some speculate that the administration – under growing pressure from cost of living concerns – could use a court decision against them as a tariff off-ramp.

Watch our recent 2025 Freight Year in Review and 2026 Lookahead webinar here.

But even with seasonal increases in demand in 2026 – and following an estimated 1.4% decline for 2025 year total US ocean imports – S&P projects year totals in 2026 will fall 2% before a 6% rebound in 2027.

And slumping demand next year will coincide with capacity that will continue to grow. Though most of the new vessels are large and used on the main east-west trades, these new deliveries are also having knock-on effects on secondary lanes, like regional and feeder markets. As these new large vessels are introduced, older large vessels are being shifted to secondary lanes increasing capacity on these lanes, but also leading to an aging smaller-vessel fleet, which could set up a shortage of right-sized ships for these lanes even as total capacity grows.

Capacity levels will be even higher once Red Sea diversions end. But regardless of when carriers feel ready to resume traffic through the Suez, vessels won’t be able to return until vessel and cargo insurers also agree that the risk of attack has dropped sufficiently. Some experts suggest insurers will need at least another 60-90 days of quiet before considering a Red Sea return.

In other geopolitical developments, Mexico announced significant upcoming tariffs on many goods from countries with which they do not have trade agreements, including China. This step would be a blow to China, as Chinese exports to and investment in Mexico have grown sharply over the last few years. But despite this year’s trade war, China has shown export growth driven by diversification of trade partners.

In air cargo too, global volumes have grown from trade diversification even as changes to de minimis rules in N. America – including Mexico – have meant fewer e-commerce volumes entering those markets by air.

But even on the transpacific, air demand has rebounded, if not fully recovered from the de minimis cancellations, both from some e-commerce recovery but also from significant general cargo growth from Vietnam as well as from China. IATA estimates that – after sharp e-commerce-driven 11% growth in 2024 – 2025 global air volumes will be 3.1% stronger than last year and that in 2026 demand will grow by 2.6%.

As air peak season enters its final week Freightos Air Index China-US rates climbed to a year high of more than $8.00/kg, stretching past last year’s $7.30/kg peak, with South East Asia – US prices up to $5.50/kg from $5.00/kg in October. China – Europe rates dipped to $3.50/kg last week as capacity, following the fast growth in volumes, has shifted to this lane.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The OSI Model and AI in the Supply Chain: Why Layered Architecture Still Matters

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AI in the supply chain is often approached as an application problem. In practice, it is more often an architectural one. The OSI model offers a useful lens for understanding why.

The Architecture Problem Behind AI in Supply Chains

Most discussions about AI in the supply chain begin at the top of the stack. They focus on copilots, models, dashboards, and use cases such as forecasting, routing, and risk detection. Those applications matter, but they are not the starting point.

The more important issue is the architecture underneath them.

This is where the OSI model becomes a useful reference point. Not because supply chains operate like communications networks in any literal sense, but because the OSI model solved a similar structural problem. It separated complexity into layers and clarified how those layers interact. That same discipline is becoming increasingly relevant as AI moves deeper into logistics and supply chain operations.

AI in the Supply Chain Is Best Understood as a Layered System

The most practical way to think about AI in the supply chain is as a layered system.

At the foundation is the data layer. This includes ERP, TMS, WMS, IoT signals, supplier feeds, and external data sources. If this layer is fragmented or inconsistent, the layers above it will underperform. That aligns directly with the data harmonization requirement described in ARC research. AI depends on clean, linked, and current data, and advanced systems are only as effective as the data they operate on .

Above that is the communication layer. In traditional systems, applications exchange information through rigid integrations, manual handoffs, and batch processes. In more advanced environments, data and decisions move through APIs, event streams, and increasingly through agent-to-agent coordination. ARC’s framework describes A2A as a way for autonomous software agents to interact directly, share data, assess options, and execute decisions across the supply chain . That matters because modern supply chains do not just need better analytics. They need faster coordination across functions.

Context Is the Missing Layer in Many AI Deployments

The next layer is context. This is where many AI initiatives begin to weaken. Systems may generate plausible recommendations, but without memory of prior events, supplier history, operational constraints, or previous failures, they remain limited. The white paper describes the Model Context Protocol as a way to embed memory, identity, and continuity into AI systems so they can retain operating context over time and carry that context across workflows . In supply chain settings, that kind of continuity is important because decisions are rarely isolated. They are part of a sequence.

Reasoning Must Reflect the Networked Nature of Supply Chains

Then comes the reasoning layer. This is where retrieval-augmented generation and graph-based reasoning become useful. RAG allows systems to retrieve current, domain-specific information before generating an answer. Graph RAG extends that by reasoning across interconnected entities and dependencies. ARC’s analysis makes the point clearly: supply chains are networks, not lists, and graph structures help AI navigate those interdependencies more effectively .

This is one of the more important distinctions in enterprise AI. A system that can retrieve a policy document is useful. A system that can understand how a supplier, a port, an order, and a downstream constraint relate to one another is more operationally relevant.

Why Many AI Initiatives Stall

At the top is the application layer, the part users actually see. This includes control towers, planning workbenches, copilots, and workflow assistants. Most companies start here. That is understandable, because this is the visible part of the stack. It is also why many AI initiatives produce narrow results. The application may improve, but the lower layers remain weak.

That is the main lesson the OSI analogy helps clarify. AI in the supply chain should not be treated primarily as a front-end feature. It is better understood as a layered architecture that depends on data quality, system interoperability, context retention, and network-aware reasoning.

This also helps explain why some AI deployments perform well in demonstrations but struggle in operations. The model itself may be capable, but the environment around it may not be ready. Data may not be harmonized. Systems may not communicate cleanly. Context may not persist. Knowledge retrieval may not be grounded in current enterprise information. In those cases, the problem is not that AI has limited potential. The problem is that the stack is incomplete.

The ARC Framework Points to a More Durable Model

The ARC framework points toward a more grounded view. A2A supports coordination between systems. MCP supports continuity across time and decisions. RAG supports access to relevant knowledge. Graph RAG supports reasoning across a networked operating environment. Together, these are not just features. They are components of an emerging architecture for supply chain intelligence.

What This Means for Supply Chain Leaders

For supply chain leaders, the implication is practical. AI strategy should begin with the question, “What layers need to be in place for these systems to work reliably at scale?” That shifts the focus away from isolated pilots and toward a more durable operating model.

In practical terms, that means improving data harmonization before expanding model deployment. It means designing for system-to-system coordination rather than relying only on dashboards and alerts. It means treating context as infrastructure rather than as a convenience feature. And it means building toward reasoning systems that reflect the networked nature of the supply chain itself.

Bottom Line

The OSI model is not a blueprint for AI in logistics. But it remains a useful reminder that complex systems tend to perform better when their layers are clearly defined and properly integrated.

That is becoming true of AI in the supply chain as well.

The companies that recognize this early are more likely to build systems that support better coordination, more consistent decision-making, and more useful intelligence across the network. The companies that do not may continue to add AI applications at the surface while leaving the underlying architecture unresolved.

The post The OSI Model and AI in the Supply Chain: Why Layered Architecture Still Matters appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Anthropic’s Mythos Raises the Stakes for Software Security

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Anthropic’s decision to restrict access to Mythos is more than a product decision. It suggests that frontier AI is moving into a more serious class of cybersecurity capability, with implications for software vendors, critical infrastructure, and the digital systems that support modern supply chains.

Anthropic’s latest announcement deserves attention well beyond the AI market.

The company says its new Claude Mythos Preview model has identified thousands of previously unknown software vulnerabilities across major operating systems, browsers, and other widely used software environments. But the more important point is not the claim itself. It is the release strategy. Anthropic did not make the model broadly available. It placed Mythos inside a controlled early-access program and limited access to a select group of major technology and security organizations.

That tells you something.

This is not being positioned as another general-purpose model that happens to be good at security work. Anthropic is treating Mythos as a system with enough cyber capability, and enough dual-use risk, to justify a restricted rollout. That is a notable change in posture.

For supply chain and logistics leaders, the relevance is not hard to see. Modern supply chains now depend on a thick software layer: ERP platforms, transportation systems, warehouse systems, visibility tools, APIs, cloud infrastructure, industrial software, and partner integrations. If frontier AI materially improves the speed and scale at which vulnerabilities can be found, then this is not just a cybersecurity story. It is an operations story.

A compromised transportation platform is not merely an IT issue. A weakness in a warehouse execution environment is not just a software problem. These failures can disrupt planning, fulfillment, supplier coordination, inventory visibility, and customer service. In a software-mediated supply chain, cyber weakness increasingly becomes operational weakness.

That is the real significance here.

Over the last year, much of the AI discussion has centered on productivity. Better copilots. Faster coding. More automation. Mythos is a reminder that the same capability gains can cut the other way too. A model that is better at reasoning through code and complex systems may also be better at finding weaknesses, chaining exploits, and shortening the gap between vulnerability discovery and exploitation.

That does not mean a disaster scenario is around the corner. But it does mean the discussion is changing.

There is also a second issue in Anthropic’s release strategy. Early access creates asymmetry. The organizations that get access to these tools first will be in a better position to harden their environments than those that do not. Large platform vendors and elite security firms are more likely to absorb this shift quickly. Smaller software providers and companies with less security depth may not.

That matters commercially as well as technically.

In a more AI-intensive security environment, resilience becomes a more visible part of product value. Customers will still care about features, workflow, and ROI. But they will also care, more directly, about whether a vendor can secure its software stack in an environment where advanced models may be able to surface weaknesses faster than traditional testing methods ever could. For some vendors, that will strengthen their position. For others, it may expose how thin their defenses really are.

There is also a governance signal here. A leading AI company has decided that broad release is not the responsible first step for this class of capability. Whether that becomes standard practice or not, it marks a threshold. It suggests that at least some frontier model capabilities now carry enough cybersecurity weight to influence how they are released and who gets access first.

Enterprise technology leaders should pay attention to that.

They should also take the broader lesson. Security cannot sit on the edge of the AI agenda. It has to move closer to the center of the operating model. That means tighter software supply chain governance, faster patching cycles, better dependency visibility, stronger segmentation of critical systems, and more disciplined red-teaming. It also means recognizing that cyber resilience is now part of business resilience.

There is a related point here. If models like Mythos increase uncertainty around software security, vendors will face a higher burden to prove resilience. If vulnerability discovery is getting faster and cheaper, then older assumptions about defensibility, testing depth, and incumbent safety become less comfortable. That pressure will not fall evenly. Firms with strong engineering depth and security discipline are more likely to absorb it. Others may find that the market becomes less forgiving.

For supply chain leaders, the takeaway is straightforward. As AI becomes more deeply embedded in planning, logistics, and execution systems, the integrity of the software environment becomes more central to performance. If frontier models accelerate vulnerability discovery, the burden on both vendors and enterprises to secure those environments rises with it.

Mythos matters not because it proves the worst case. It matters because it shows where the curve is going.

A major AI developer has now made clear that frontier AI is moving into territory where the cybersecurity implications are serious enough to shape release strategy and access controls. That is a meaningful development. Supply chain and technology leaders should treat it that way.

The post Anthropic’s Mythos Raises the Stakes for Software Security appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Autonomous Trucking Is Fragmenting Into Distinct Market Entry Models

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Autonomous trucking is no longer a single category defined by technical ambition. It is fragmenting into distinct market entry models, each with different paths to commercialization, risk profiles, and timelines for impact on freight execution.

A Market No Longer Defined by One End State

Autonomous trucking is no longer a single race to full driverless operation. It is fragmenting into distinct entry models, each addressing a different part of the freight problem with different timelines, risk profiles, and economic logic.

For several years, the category was framed as a single end state: driverless trucks operating broadly across long-haul freight networks.

That framing no longer fits the market as it is developing.

What is emerging instead is a set of entry models, each aimed at a different operational problem. These models are not progressing on the same timeline, and they are not constrained by the same variables. For supply chain and logistics executives, that distinction matters more than tracking broad claims about autonomy.

This pattern is common in industrial technology. New capabilities rarely enter at the most complex point in the system. They enter where variability is manageable, the economics are clearer, and operational value can be demonstrated sooner.

Long-Haul Autonomy Remains the Full-Stack Ambition

The most visible model remains long-haul autonomous trucking. This is the original vision: driverless trucks moving across highway networks, reducing labor constraints and improving asset utilization.

The opportunity is substantial, but so are the requirements. These systems must operate safely at highway speed, handle weather and traffic variation, and meet a more demanding regulatory and operational standard than narrower autonomy use cases.

Companies such as Aurora, Kodiak, and Torc Robotics are pursuing this path with increasing focus on defined freight corridors and structured deployment plans. Rather than attempting broad geographic coverage too early, these companies are concentrating on lanes where conditions can be better controlled and performance can be measured with more discipline. Other entrants such as Waabi, Plus, and a range of OEM and infrastructure partners are advancing similar models across different segments of the market.

Middle-Mile Autonomy Offers a Faster Commercial Path

A second model has emerged with a different profile: middle-mile autonomy.

Instead of solving for open-ended highway networks, this approach focuses on repeatable routes between fixed nodes such as distribution centers, stores, and cross-dock facilities. The operating environment is still demanding, but the variability is lower and the economic case can be easier to establish.

Gatik is the clearest example of this model. Its approach reflects a practical reality in freight automation: autonomy does not need to solve the hardest problem first to create value. In many supply chains, middle-mile freight is frequent, predictable, and costly enough that even partial automation can improve network performance. This makes middle-mile autonomy one of the more credible early commercial entry points.

Yard and Terminal Autonomy Benefit From Bounded Environments

A third model is taking shape in yards, terminals, and other bounded environments.

Here, the domain is tighter, speeds are lower, and routes are more repetitive. That reduces deployment complexity and creates a more practical setting for automation to mature.

Outrider is an example of how this strategy is developing. Yard operations are often overlooked in broader autonomy discussions, but they matter. Delays at this stage affect linehaul schedules, dock utilization, and downstream fulfillment performance. As a result, yard autonomy may scale earlier than more ambitious highway programs, not because it is more important, but because it is operationally easier to implement.

Hybrid and Teleoperated Models Create a Bridge

Between fully manual operations and fully autonomous systems, hybrid models are also emerging.

These combine onboard automation with remote human intervention, allowing systems to handle routine tasks while escalating exceptions when needed. This approach lowers deployment risk and gives operators a way to build confidence without requiring immediate full autonomy in all conditions.

FERNRIDE reflects this bridging strategy. Its relevance is not just technical. It points to a broader truth about the category: the path to autonomy is likely to be incremental in many freight environments. Hybrid models can help carriers and shippers introduce automation in a way that fits operational reality rather than forcing a binary shift from manual to driverless.

OEM Integration May Determine Who Scales

Another important path is OEM-integrated autonomy.

In this model, autonomous capabilities are built into commercial vehicle platforms through close alignment with truck manufacturers and industrial partners. This matters because scaling freight autonomy is not only a software challenge. It is also a manufacturing, maintenance, service, and support challenge.

That is why partnerships involving companies such as Plus, Daimler Truck, Volvo Autonomous Solutions, and other OEM-linked players deserve attention. Industrialization will play a major role in determining which autonomy programs remain pilot-stage efforts and which ones become durable components of freight networks.

What This Fragmentation Means

Taken together, these entry models point to a broader conclusion. Autonomous trucking is not arriving as a single unified capability. It is entering the market through multiple constrained domains, each built around a different balance of technical feasibility, operational complexity, and economic return.

That fragmentation is a sign of market maturation. The industry is moving away from generalized ambition and toward deployment strategies grounded in specific use cases. Long-haul autonomy targets the largest long-term opportunity. Middle-mile autonomy prioritizes repeatability and faster commercialization. Yard autonomy benefits from bounded environments. Hybrid models provide a bridge. OEM-integrated approaches provide the industrial foundation needed for scale.

What Supply Chain Leaders Should Watch

For supply chain leaders, the practical question is no longer whether autonomous trucking will arrive. It is where it will enter the network first, under what operating model, and with what operational implications.

In some cases, the answer will be a middle-mile loop between fixed facilities. In others, it will be yard movements, teleoperated support, or corridor-based long-haul deployment.

The larger point is architectural. These systems will not create value in isolation. They depend on data, orchestration, and coordination across the broader freight technology stack. In that sense, autonomous trucking is one more example of the broader shift toward connected, intelligent supply chain execution described in ARC’s recent work on AI architecture in logistics.

Where Tesla Fits

Tesla is better treated as an adjacent company to watch rather than a central example. The Tesla Semi is relevant to the future of freight equipment, but Tesla’s current positioning emphasizes electrification and supervised driver-assistance rather than a clearly defined autonomous freight deployment model.

Closing Perspective

Autonomous trucking will not arrive all at once. It will enter the supply chain through specific lanes, nodes, and operating models where the economics and constraints align.

The competitive advantage will not come from adopting autonomy broadly, but from understanding where it fits first and integrating it into the network ahead of competitors. That is where the category becomes operational, and where it begins to matter.

The post Autonomous Trucking Is Fragmenting Into Distinct Market Entry Models appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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