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Asia – Europe rates staying elevated on some early pre-LNY start – December 12, 2025 Update

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Asia – Europe rates staying elevated on some early pre-LNY start – December 12, 2025 Update

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Published: December 16, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 6% to $1,964/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 8% to $3,150/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $2,449/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 1% to $3,342/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $8.01/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 4% to $3.50/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $2.53/kg.

Analysis

Despite growing signs of ocean freight overcapacity, container rates on Asia – Europe lanes have maintained their increases from recent GRIs.

Asia – Mediterranean rates were level last week at $3,342/FEU after climbing 15% to start the month for its fourth consecutive successful GRI since mid-October, before which prices dipped to a year low of about $2,000/FEU.

Asia – N. Europe prices were stable last week at $2,449/FEU, and level with rates set in early November, but still well above its mid-October nadir of $1,700/FEU. For most of the last two months rates on these lanes have climbed bi-monthly via capacity reductions as demand eased. But carriers and forwarders are now reporting an uptick in demand as some shippers are getting an early start to pre-Lunar New Year ordering – a trend also seen in Asia – Europe rate behavior in 2023 and 2024 when December prices climbed sharply, possibly in response to Red Sea-driven longer lead times.

Carriers are now increasing capacity to meet demand, with some planning mid-month Asia – Europe and Mediterranean GRIs to the $4,200/FEU and $4,750/FEU levels respectively. Through October, year to date Asia – Europe volumes were up 8.6% according to CTS. December demand is likely stronger than last year as well, with some speculating that some shippers are expecting a return to the Red Sea soon and are therefore building inventory buffers now in expectation of disruptions. But even with both Red Sea diversions still in place and volume growth, spot rates have consistently been lower than last year. Current Asia – N. Europe rates are down 54% compared to last December, pointing to capacity growth as an important factor to current price levels.

On the transpacific meanwhile, even with capacity reductions – and additional blanked sailings announced for the coming weeks – carriers are having difficulty getting the series of recent GRIs to stick. Last week West Coast rates retreated 6% from a start of the month GRI bump, to $1,963/FEU. Prices to the East Coast increased 8% to $3,150/FEU this week, but are down 15% from a month ago. Even with these ups and downs, though, carriers have succeeded in keeping rates above October lows of $1,400/FEU and $3,000/FEU respectively, likely with benefits of higher rates for short periods in between the dips.

Slumping Q4 demand, in addition to growing fleets, is an important factor to rate levels, making planned mid-month GRIs unlikely to hold, and a more sustained rate rebound more likely only as we get closer to LNY. There are some indications that part of current demand levels is due to some US manufacturers pausing imports in the hopes that a Supreme Court decision invalidating IEEPA tariffs will come soon and result in lowered duties. Though the White House maintains that if IEEPA is struck down, it is ready to quickly restore tariffs by other means, some speculate that the administration – under growing pressure from cost of living concerns – could use a court decision against them as a tariff off-ramp.

Watch our recent 2025 Freight Year in Review and 2026 Lookahead webinar here.

But even with seasonal increases in demand in 2026 – and following an estimated 1.4% decline for 2025 year total US ocean imports – S&P projects year totals in 2026 will fall 2% before a 6% rebound in 2027.

And slumping demand next year will coincide with capacity that will continue to grow. Though most of the new vessels are large and used on the main east-west trades, these new deliveries are also having knock-on effects on secondary lanes, like regional and feeder markets. As these new large vessels are introduced, older large vessels are being shifted to secondary lanes increasing capacity on these lanes, but also leading to an aging smaller-vessel fleet, which could set up a shortage of right-sized ships for these lanes even as total capacity grows.

Capacity levels will be even higher once Red Sea diversions end. But regardless of when carriers feel ready to resume traffic through the Suez, vessels won’t be able to return until vessel and cargo insurers also agree that the risk of attack has dropped sufficiently. Some experts suggest insurers will need at least another 60-90 days of quiet before considering a Red Sea return.

In other geopolitical developments, Mexico announced significant upcoming tariffs on many goods from countries with which they do not have trade agreements, including China. This step would be a blow to China, as Chinese exports to and investment in Mexico have grown sharply over the last few years. But despite this year’s trade war, China has shown export growth driven by diversification of trade partners.

In air cargo too, global volumes have grown from trade diversification even as changes to de minimis rules in N. America – including Mexico – have meant fewer e-commerce volumes entering those markets by air.

But even on the transpacific, air demand has rebounded, if not fully recovered from the de minimis cancellations, both from some e-commerce recovery but also from significant general cargo growth from Vietnam as well as from China. IATA estimates that – after sharp e-commerce-driven 11% growth in 2024 – 2025 global air volumes will be 3.1% stronger than last year and that in 2026 demand will grow by 2.6%.

As air peak season enters its final week Freightos Air Index China-US rates climbed to a year high of more than $8.00/kg, stretching past last year’s $7.30/kg peak, with South East Asia – US prices up to $5.50/kg from $5.00/kg in October. China – Europe rates dipped to $3.50/kg last week as capacity, following the fast growth in volumes, has shifted to this lane.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The Home Depot Buys SIMPL Automation to Speed Fulfillment and Tighten DC Performance

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The deal signals a continued push to use automation, AI, and denser storage design to improve delivery speed, labor efficiency, and product availability.

The Home Depot has acquired SIMPL Automation, a Massachusetts-based provider of warehouse automation and technology systems, as the retailer continues to invest in faster, more efficient fulfillment operations.

The move follows a pilot at Home Depot’s Locust Grove, Georgia distribution center. According to the company, the pilot improved pick speed, shortened cycle times, and reduced product touches. SIMPL also brings a patented storage and retrieval solution designed to increase storage density inside the distribution center. That should help Home Depot position more high-demand inventory closer to the customer and support faster delivery.

“We’re focused on providing the best interconnected experience in home improvement by having products in stock and ready to deliver to our customers whether it’s to the home or jobsite,” said Amit Kalra, senior vice president of supply chain at The Home Depot. “By bringing SIMPL’s industry-leading automation into our operations, we’re accelerating the flow of products through our distribution network to deliver with unprecedented speed and precision.”

The strategic logic is straightforward. Retailers are under continued pressure to improve service levels while also protecting margins. That makes distribution center automation more than a labor story. It is now tied directly to throughput, storage utilization, inventory positioning, and delivery performance.

Home Depot framed the acquisition as part of a broader supply chain innovation agenda that includes AI-powered inventory management, advanced analytics, mobile technology, automation, and live delivery tracking. SIMPL fits neatly into that effort. Its value is not just in automating tasks, but in improving the overall flow of goods through the network.

This matters because fulfillment speed is increasingly determined inside the four walls. Faster picks, fewer touches, and denser storage can materially improve network responsiveness without requiring entirely new infrastructure. In that sense, the acquisition is not just about mechanization. It is about tighter execution.

There is also a second point worth noting. Home Depot is acquiring a capability it already tested in its own environment. That lowers adoption risk and suggests this was not a speculative technology purchase. It was an operationally validated one.

For supply chain leaders, this is another sign that warehouse automation is becoming a more central part of retail network strategy. The winners will not simply automate for its own sake. They will deploy automation where it improves flow, reduces friction, and helps place the right inventory closer to demand.

The post The Home Depot Buys SIMPL Automation to Speed Fulfillment and Tighten DC Performance appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Strait of Hormuz Reopens to Commercial Shipping, but Risk to Global Trade Remains

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Iran says commercial traffic can resume through the Strait of Hormuz during the 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, sending oil prices sharply lower. But with U.S. pressure on Iranian shipping still in place and shipowners seeking operational clarity, this is a partial reopening, not a return to normal.

Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping for the duration of the current ceasefire, a move that immediately eased market fears over one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Oil prices fell sharply on the news. The market response was rational: even a temporary reopening of Hormuz reduces the near-term risk of a sustained disruption to crude and LNG flows.

But supply chain leaders should be careful not to read this as full normalization.

President Donald Trump said commercial passage is open, while also stating that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ships and ports will remain in force until a broader agreement is reached. That leaves a meaningful contradiction in place. Merchant traffic may resume, but the broader security and enforcement environment remains unsettled.

That uncertainty is showing up quickly in shipping behavior. Carriers and shipowners are still looking for details on routing, mine risk, and practical transit conditions before treating the corridor as fully operational. Iran has indicated that vessels will need to follow coordinated routes, which suggests controlled passage rather than a clean restoration of normal maritime traffic.

There is also internal ambiguity in Iran’s messaging. Outlets tied to the IRGC criticized the foreign minister’s statement as incomplete, arguing that open commercial passage cannot be viewed in isolation while U.S. pressure on Iranian shipping continues. That matters because inconsistent signaling raises risk for carriers, insurers, and cargo owners trying to assess whether this is a stable operating environment or a temporary political pause.

For logistics and supply chain executives, the core point is straightforward: the immediate shock risk has eased, but corridor risk has not disappeared.

Hormuz is not just an oil story. It is a systemwide trade artery. Any disruption, or even the credible threat of disruption, can affect tanker availability, marine insurance costs, vessel scheduling, fuel assumptions, and downstream manufacturing economics. Friday’s drop in oil prices reflects relief. It does not yet reflect restored certainty.

The next question is whether commercial transits resume at scale and without incident. If they do, energy markets may continue to retrace. If routing restrictions, mine concerns, or military signaling reintroduce hesitation, volatility will return quickly.

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Why Enterprise AI Systems Fail: It’s Not RAG – It’s Context Control

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Enterprise AI systems are not failing because of poor retrieval or weak models. They are failing because they cannot control what actually enters the model’s context window.

The Pattern Is Becoming Familiar

Enterprise teams are following a familiar path with AI. They build a retrieval-augmented generation pipeline, connect internal data, tune prompts, and get early results that look promising. For a while, the system appears to work. Then performance starts to slip. Responses become less consistent. Important details fall out. The system loses continuity across turns. What looked sharp in a demo begins to feel unreliable in practice.

This is usually blamed on retrieval. In many cases, that diagnosis is wrong.

The Breakdown Comes After Retrieval

RAG solves an important problem. It helps a system find relevant documents and ground responses in enterprise data. But it does not determine what happens after retrieval. That is where many systems begin to fail.

In production, the model is not dealing with one clean document and one neatly phrased request. It is dealing with overlapping retrieved materials, accumulated conversation history, fixed token limits, and source content of uneven quality. At that point, the issue is no longer whether the system found something relevant. The issue is what actually makes it into the model, what gets left out, and how the remaining context is organized.

Most enterprise systems do not manage this step very well. They simply keep passing information forward until the context window starts to strain. When that happens, the model does not fail gracefully. It becomes selective in ways the enterprise did not intend. Relevant constraints disappear. Redundant information crowds out useful information. Continuity weakens. The answers can still sound polished, but they stop holding up operationally.

What This Looks Like on the Ground

This shows up quickly in supply chain settings. A planning assistant may retrieve the right demand and inventory signals, but lose a constraint that was discussed earlier in the interaction. The answer still looks reasonable, but it is no longer actionable. A procurement copilot may surface supplier information, yet carry forward redundant materials while excluding the one contract clause that mattered. A control tower assistant may retrieve prior exceptions, shipment updates, and current alerts, but present too much information with too little prioritization. In each case, retrieval technically worked. The system still failed.

The Missing Control Layer

The missing layer is the one between retrieval and prompting. There needs to be an explicit control step that determines what stays, what gets removed, what gets compressed, and how the available space is allocated. This is not prompt engineering, and it is not simply retrieval tuning. It is context control.

That control layer includes several practical functions. Retrieved materials often need to be re-ranked because not every document deserves equal weight. Conversation history needs to be filtered because not every prior interaction should remain active in the model’s working set. Relevant content often needs to be compressed so that it fits within system constraints without losing meaning. And above all, token budgets need to be treated as an architectural issue, not just a technical limitation.

Memory Usually Fails First

Memory is often where the problem becomes visible first. Many systems handle multi-turn interaction with a simple sliding window. They keep the last few turns and discard the rest. That sounds reasonable until an older but still important piece of context disappears while a newer but less useful interaction remains. Stronger systems do not rely on blunt recency alone. They apply weighted retention so that important context persists longer, low-value context fades, and relevance to the current task matters more than simple position in the conversation. Without that, continuity breaks down quickly.

Token Limits Are Not a Side Issue

Token budgets are often treated as a background technical constraint. In practice, they shape system behavior. If priorities are not explicit, the system will make implicit tradeoffs under pressure. Some architectures handle this more effectively by reserving space in a disciplined order: first the system prompt, then filtered memory, then retrieved content compressed to fit what remains. That sounds like a small design choice, but it prevents a surprising number of failure modes.

Why This Matters in Supply Chains

This matters more in supply chains than in many other domains because supply chain work is rarely a single-turn exercise. It is multi-step, multi-system, and time-dependent. AI systems must maintain continuity across decisions, exceptions, and changing conditions. That requires structured context, not just access to data. This aligns with the broader shift toward context-aware AI architectures in supply chains, where continuity and memory are foundational to performance .

In many environments, this failure mode is already present. It just has not been isolated yet. Teams see inconsistent outputs and assume the problem is the model, the prompt, or the retriever. Often the deeper issue is that the model is seeing the wrong mix of context.

This Problem Gets Bigger From Here

That issue will become more important, not less, as enterprise architectures evolve. Agent-based systems need shared context. Persistent memory layers increase the volume of available information. Graph-based reasoning expands the number of relationships a system may need to consider. All of that increases pressure on context selection. None of it removes the problem.

The Real Takeaway

The central point is straightforward. RAG gets the right documents. Prompting shapes the response. Context control determines whether the system works at all.

Most teams are still focused on the first two. In many enterprise deployments today, the third is already where systems are breaking.

The post Why Enterprise AI Systems Fail: It’s Not RAG – It’s Context Control appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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