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More ocean GRIs; transpac air rates surge on final peak push – December 9, 2025 Update

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More ocean GRIs; transpac air rates surge on final peak push – December 9, 2025 Update

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Published: December 9, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 22% to $2,096/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2% to $2,930/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) stayed level at $2,464/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 15% to $3,367/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 18% to $7.63/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 12% to $3.64/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $2.48/kg.

Analysis

The past week has offered more signs of encouragement for a container market return to the Red Sea. In addition to the Houthis’ release of crew members held in Yemen since a vessel attack in July, CMA CGM and its Ocean Alliance announced some of their services – escorted by French naval vessels – will now transit the Suez Canal for all backhaul voyages, with another also sailing headhaul via the Red Sea.

None of these developments make a Red Sea rebound imminent however, and a full return could still be quite a ways off. But the eventual return of container traffic to the Red Sea will ultimately release a surge of capacity back into a market already struggling with oversupply.

Transpacific container rates to the West Coast hit a low for the year of about $1,400/FEU in early October. Since then, carriers have sought to reduce capacity and introduce GRIs, resulting in a (relatively slow-moving) rollercoaster for prices on these lanes as supply-driven rates rise, retreat and repeat.

Carriers were able to push West Coast rates up in mid-October and again to start November, resulting in an early-November climb to about $3,000/FEU only to see prices fall to $1,700/FEU by the end of the month.

But prices ticked up again to start December – despite volumes projected to be the lowest of the year – with rates to the West Coast up 22% last week to $2,100/FEU. Some carriers are introducing smaller, incremental increases on a weekly basis as opposed to the more typical bi-monthly GRIs in the hopes that the market will accept smaller price bumps more easily than sharper increases. This trend may be reflected in daily rates for this week up another $100/FEU to $2,200/FEU to the West Coast and to more than $3,000/FEU to the East Coast, though once again this month there is skepticism that these prices will hold.

Despite some observers expecting the US market to enter a restocking cycle that would spur ocean volume growth next year, others are less optimistic. The NRF anticipates retailer expectations for negative trade war impacts on consumer behavior will result in double-digit percentage year on year ocean import volume declines through April of next year, with demand lower than 2024 levels as well.

Trade war frontloading is partly to blame for lower US ocean import volumes now, and for the sharply negative year on year comparisons for those expecting weak volumes for Q1 2026. Europe’s ocean imports meanwhile – especially as China has shifted focus away from the US and toward other markets including Europe – have been stronger and more consistent than N. America’s. CTS data shows total ocean imports to Europe eased 2% in month-on-month October, but were still 1% higher than a year ago. Asia – Europe volumes fell 3% year over year in October for the first annual decrease since February.

Despite easing, slow-season volumes, carriers have had more success propping up Asia-Europe rates in Q4 than they have on the transpacific partly due to more aggressive blanked sailings as these lanes enter the home stretch of their annual ocean contract negotiation period.

GRIs starting mid-October have pushed Asia – Europe rates up 40% to $2,463/FEU through last week, though prices have been level since late November. Asia – Mediterranean rates are up 56% to $3,366/FEU including a $500/FEU bump to start December. Some carriers have announced additional GRIs for mid-December, aiming to push N. Europe rates to $3,500/FEU and Mediterranean prices to $4,200/FEU or higher.

As the air cargo market enters its final peak season weeks, Freightos Air Index data suggests transpacific demand strength. China – US rates climbed from around $5.30/kg in mid-October to $6.50/kg to close November, and are now pushing past the $7.50/kg mark – above last year’s $7.30/kg peak – during the end-of-season rush.

Demand is likely stronger on Asia – Europe lanes as China’s e-commerce export focus has also shifted to Europe. But the parallel shift of capacity away from the transpacific and to Asia-Europe lanes – also a factor in the current, higher transpacific rates – has kept Asia – Europe prices from spiking. China – Europe rates eased 12% to $3.64/kg last week and are about on par with a year ago.

The EU and the UK have announced plans to close their de minimis exemptions within the next few years, with several countries planning handling fees for low value imports even before the rule change. US de minimis closures initially led to a sharp decrease in China-US e-comm air cargo volumes. And though volumes remain below April levels, some reports show much of that e-comm demand has returned to the China-US air market as e-commerce platforms have adapted to the new rules.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The post More ocean GRIs; transpac air rates surge on final peak push – December 9, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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Why Enterprise AI Systems Fail: It’s Not RAG – It’s Context Control

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Enterprise AI systems are not failing because of poor retrieval or weak models. They are failing because they cannot control what actually enters the model’s context window.

The Pattern Is Becoming Familiar

Enterprise teams are following a familiar path with AI. They build a retrieval-augmented generation pipeline, connect internal data, tune prompts, and get early results that look promising. For a while, the system appears to work. Then performance starts to slip. Responses become less consistent. Important details fall out. The system loses continuity across turns. What looked sharp in a demo begins to feel unreliable in practice.

This is usually blamed on retrieval. In many cases, that diagnosis is wrong.

The Breakdown Comes After Retrieval

RAG solves an important problem. It helps a system find relevant documents and ground responses in enterprise data. But it does not determine what happens after retrieval. That is where many systems begin to fail.

In production, the model is not dealing with one clean document and one neatly phrased request. It is dealing with overlapping retrieved materials, accumulated conversation history, fixed token limits, and source content of uneven quality. At that point, the issue is no longer whether the system found something relevant. The issue is what actually makes it into the model, what gets left out, and how the remaining context is organized.

Most enterprise systems do not manage this step very well. They simply keep passing information forward until the context window starts to strain. When that happens, the model does not fail gracefully. It becomes selective in ways the enterprise did not intend. Relevant constraints disappear. Redundant information crowds out useful information. Continuity weakens. The answers can still sound polished, but they stop holding up operationally.

What This Looks Like on the Ground

This shows up quickly in supply chain settings. A planning assistant may retrieve the right demand and inventory signals, but lose a constraint that was discussed earlier in the interaction. The answer still looks reasonable, but it is no longer actionable. A procurement copilot may surface supplier information, yet carry forward redundant materials while excluding the one contract clause that mattered. A control tower assistant may retrieve prior exceptions, shipment updates, and current alerts, but present too much information with too little prioritization. In each case, retrieval technically worked. The system still failed.

The Missing Control Layer

The missing layer is the one between retrieval and prompting. There needs to be an explicit control step that determines what stays, what gets removed, what gets compressed, and how the available space is allocated. This is not prompt engineering, and it is not simply retrieval tuning. It is context control.

That control layer includes several practical functions. Retrieved materials often need to be re-ranked because not every document deserves equal weight. Conversation history needs to be filtered because not every prior interaction should remain active in the model’s working set. Relevant content often needs to be compressed so that it fits within system constraints without losing meaning. And above all, token budgets need to be treated as an architectural issue, not just a technical limitation.

Memory Usually Fails First

Memory is often where the problem becomes visible first. Many systems handle multi-turn interaction with a simple sliding window. They keep the last few turns and discard the rest. That sounds reasonable until an older but still important piece of context disappears while a newer but less useful interaction remains. Stronger systems do not rely on blunt recency alone. They apply weighted retention so that important context persists longer, low-value context fades, and relevance to the current task matters more than simple position in the conversation. Without that, continuity breaks down quickly.

Token Limits Are Not a Side Issue

Token budgets are often treated as a background technical constraint. In practice, they shape system behavior. If priorities are not explicit, the system will make implicit tradeoffs under pressure. Some architectures handle this more effectively by reserving space in a disciplined order: first the system prompt, then filtered memory, then retrieved content compressed to fit what remains. That sounds like a small design choice, but it prevents a surprising number of failure modes.

Why This Matters in Supply Chains

This matters more in supply chains than in many other domains because supply chain work is rarely a single-turn exercise. It is multi-step, multi-system, and time-dependent. AI systems must maintain continuity across decisions, exceptions, and changing conditions. That requires structured context, not just access to data. This aligns with the broader shift toward context-aware AI architectures in supply chains, where continuity and memory are foundational to performance .

In many environments, this failure mode is already present. It just has not been isolated yet. Teams see inconsistent outputs and assume the problem is the model, the prompt, or the retriever. Often the deeper issue is that the model is seeing the wrong mix of context.

This Problem Gets Bigger From Here

That issue will become more important, not less, as enterprise architectures evolve. Agent-based systems need shared context. Persistent memory layers increase the volume of available information. Graph-based reasoning expands the number of relationships a system may need to consider. All of that increases pressure on context selection. None of it removes the problem.

The Real Takeaway

The central point is straightforward. RAG gets the right documents. Prompting shapes the response. Context control determines whether the system works at all.

Most teams are still focused on the first two. In many enterprise deployments today, the third is already where systems are breaking.

The post Why Enterprise AI Systems Fail: It’s Not RAG – It’s Context Control appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Supply Chain and Logistics News April 13th-16th 2026

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Supply Chain And Logistics News April 13th 16th 2026

This week in supply chain and logistics brought headlines on major partnerships, announcements, and warehousing. Jim Frazer shared his views on the top five transportation technology trends reshaping supply chains, and the Logistics Viewpoints Podcast released a new episode on the Future of Warehousing. Lastly, the Home Depot acquired warehouse automation company Simpl Automation, and Redwood Materials announced its newest partnership with Rivian.

Your Supply Chain and Logistics Stories for the Week:

Five Transportation Technology Trends Reshaping Supply Chains in 2026

The transportation landscape in 2026 has transitioned from fragmented pilot programs to a model of connected execution, where Jim Frazer notes that integrated architectures are replacing isolated tools. This shift is characterized by a move from simple optimization to full orchestration linking transportation data with inventory and labor, and the evolution of TMS platforms into AI-driven decisioning tools that prioritize real-time adjustments over static planning. Furthermore, dock and yard operations are now synchronized as part of a holistic workflow. At the same time, autonomous technology has matured into a pragmatic phase, deploying selectively within bounded corridors and specific last-mile niches where the economic and regulatory conditions are most favorable.

Rivian and Redwood Materials Announce Energy Storage Partnership for Manufacturing

From data centers to car manufacturing, Redwood Materials announced another major partnership utilizing its battery storage systems. This week, American automotive and technology company Rivian announced a partnership to deploy pioneering battery energy storage at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois, manufacturing facility. The plan is to use more than 100 second-life Rivian battery packs to unlock 10 megawatt-hours of dispatchable energy during peak demand times, to reduce energy costs and grid load. Redwood will integrate the batteries into a Redwood Energy system, supported by the company’s Redwood Pack Manager technology, allowing their stored energy to be used on-site by Rivian’s plant in Normal.

The Future of Warehousing: Newest Podcast Episode

Gaven Simon and Jeremy Hudson sit down for a candid conversation about the future of warehousing. The conversation touches upon automation within the warehouse, labor retention, packaging, sustainability, and WMS. Jeremy shares his experience in the logistics industry, spanning from riding around on a golf cart dropping off cups to implementing WMS software at a major warehouse operation. The episode ends with a discussion about retaining employees by improving the work atmosphere and leveraging software to reduce repetitive tasks.

Why Sulfuric Acid is Emerging as a Supply Chain Constraint in Copper

While typically viewed as a secondary industrial input, sulfuric acid is now a primary supply chain constraint due to a combination of geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, China’s recent export restrictions, and tightening smelter economics. This shift creates a dual-threat environment: leach operators face rising procurement costs and inventory risks, while smelters lose critical byproduct revenue that previously cushioned weak refining charges. For supply chain leaders, this serves as a critical reminder that resilience requires looking beyond headline commodities to the “enabling inputs” that can quietly destabilize entire production systems when trade flows shift.

Home Depot Acquires Warehouse Tech Firm to Boost Fulfillment Strategy

The Home Depot has acquired warehouse technology firm Simpl Automation to bolster its distribution speed and efficiency. This move follows a successful pilot at the retailer’s Locust Grove, Georgia, facility, where the technology—which includes automated storage and retrieval systems as well as vertical lift modules—led to faster pick speeds and a reduction in manual product touches. By integrating these automated workflows, the company aims to improve worker safety and support its broader strategy of offering same-day and next-day delivery by housing high-demand products closer to customers. This acquisition aligns with a larger industry trend of major retailers like Walmart and Amazon investing heavily in mechatronics to streamline fulfillment networks.

The post Supply Chain and Logistics News April 13th-16th 2026 appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Stellantis and Microsoft Expand AI Collaboration Across Operations

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Stellantis and Microsoft have announced a broad five-year collaboration spanning AI, cybersecurity, cloud modernization, and engineering. For supply chain leaders, the more important question is where measurable operational value will show up first.

Stellantis and Microsoft say they will co-develop more than 100 AI initiatives across customer care, product development, and operations as part of a five-year strategic collaboration. The announcement also includes AI-driven cybersecurity, Azure-based cloud modernization, and broader deployment of Copilot tools across the Stellantis workforce.

For supply chain and logistics leaders, the key signal is not the scale of the announcement alone. It is the potential for AI to improve predictive maintenance, support manufacturing performance, strengthen logistics coordination, and make operational data more accessible across the enterprise. Stellantis also says it is targeting a 60 percent reduction in datacenter footprint by 2029 through its Azure modernization effort.

The announcement is meaningful, but still broad. The real test will be execution: which workflows move first, where measurable gains appear, and whether the effort produces tangible improvements in uptime, responsiveness, and supply chain performance rather than remaining a large transformation program on paper. That is the part worth watching.

Read more at https://www.stellantis.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/april/stellantis-accelerates-ai-led-strategy-and-digital-transformation-through-strategic-collaboration-with-microsoft-to-enhance-customer-experiences

The post Stellantis and Microsoft Expand AI Collaboration Across Operations appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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