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Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence

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Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence

Published: December 2, 2025

Updated: December 10, 2025

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Freight Market Insights

Ocean shipping is a crucial component of global trade ensuring the smooth and effective movement of goods from manufacturers to consumers. By volume, about 90% of goods traded globally are shipped by sea, with most of those goods by value, sailing in containers. Keep reading for this month’s ocean and air update, or stay up to date on a weekly basis with our weekly update available here.

Ocean Rates Recover Even in Late-Year Lull

October featured rising trade war tensions between the US and China, including mid-month reciprocal roll outs of port call fees for US and Chinese vessel arrivals at Chinese and US ports, respectively, and a Trump threat of 100% tariffs on China starting November 1st.

But following a much anticipated end of month Trump-Xi his meeting, President Trump announced that the US will reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on China from 20% to 10%, extend the reciprocal tariff pause for a year and postpone USTR port call fees, with China also postponing its port fees and agreeing to other concessions.

This deescalation puts US tariffs on China back to March levels. These moves may be unlikely to spur a sudden surge in transpac freight demand, but do mean that supply chain stakeholders have more certainty and stability regarding the tariff landscape than at any point so far in 2025.

Trump also announced trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia late in October while establishing frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand, generally featuring 20% US tariff baselines with various exemptions in exchange for reduced barriers to US exports and investment/purchase commitments, likewise leading to a firmer tariff landscape than earlier in the year.

Despite soft post-peak season demand leading rates to slump to year-lows by mid-October, East-West container rates rebounded mid-month on GRI gains, supported by significant blanked sailings.

Transpacific rates to the West Coast increased 40% in the last two weeks of October to $2,000/FEU, 16% to the East Coast to $3,500/FEU, with Asia-Europe prices climbing 30% to close the month at $2,270/FEU.

Rates on these lanes rebounded to mid-September levels and now exceed October 2023 prices after dropping to about pre-Red Sea crisis levels mid-month, with carriers potentially introducing additional GRIs for November.

Even with these rate gains however, prices remain 40% to 60% lower than a year ago. Red Sea diversions absorbing capacity were credited as the main driver of highly elevated rates last year. That rates are falling even while Red Sea diversions continue points to capacity growth as an important factor for current rate levels

Air Rates Climbing, Despite Peak Season Skepticism

China – US Freightos Air Index air cargo rates climbed 10% in the last two weeks of October to $5.64/kg – their highest sustained level since March – possibly driven by Trump’s Nov. 1st 100% tariff threat. Some experts are skeptical there will be much of an air peak season this year due to trade war frontloading and impacts on e-commerce volumes. But if climbing rates do signal the start of the seasonal rush, it is muted compared to a year ago when prices were already at about $7.00/kg. South East Asia – N. America rates have climbed 3% in the last few weeks to $5.14/kg. Transatlantic rates have increased 9% to $1.85/kg, their highest level since June.

China – Europe prices are up 7% over the last month to about the $4.00/kg level and on par with last year despite reports of significant year on year volume increases on this lane, while SEA-Europe rates are up 13% to $3.55/kg. Climbing rates may indicate the start of peak season demand on these lanes, but rates on par with last year despite volume growth may reflect that capacity is shifting to where the volumes are too.

Understanding the Freight Market & Trends

Multiple factors can impact operations and rates in the container shipping market.

Increases in consumer demand for goods leads to increased demand for ocean freight and can put pressure on operations and lead to higher prices as space on vessels fills up.

Examples of drivers of increased demand include typical seasonal increases like those that occur most years during the ocean peak season from about July to October to build inventory for shopping events from back-to-school through the holiday season.

But demand can also be driven by geopolitical factors like trade wars that push shippers to increase orders before new tariffs go into effect, or unique events like the pandemic that drove consumers to shift spending from services to goods as they were stuck at home.

An increase in demand and container traffic can often lead to congestion at ports, which also tends to delay vessels and reduce effective supply in the market. Congestion for other reasons – like bad weather, labor strikes that create backlogs, or unusual events like the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 or the Red Sea diversions in 2024 – can also lead to backlogs and congestion.

Together, increases in demand or port congestion (and the two often occur together) put upward pressure on freight rates until demand declines and/or congestion eases. Ocean carriers will increase rates by announcing General Rate Increases (GRIs) for prices on a given lane, or adding to the existing base rate through different surcharges like a Peak Season Surcharge or Port Congestion Fee.

When demand for shipping decreases, freight rates generally drop as well. Again, demand can decrease seasonally during the non-peak months of the year, or can be driven by macroeconomic factors like recession or inflation.

Carriers will try to nonetheless keep vessels reasonably full and freight rates at profitable levels by reducing capacity through decreasing the number of vessels they operate by canceling, or “blanking” scheduled sailings. Downward pressure on rates can also happen if the global fleet has grown through the building of new vessels but more quickly than demand has expanded.

The container market is considered quite a volatile one, and plenty of examples even from the last few years demonstrate that unexpected changes in demand, spikes in port congestion, or geopolitical events can disrupt operations or send freight rates spiking.

This volatility makes staying on top of trends in the market all the more important to logistics stakeholders committed to making informed decisions and creating strategies for supply chain resiliency even in times of disruptions.

Key Factors Affecting the Freight Market

As noted, multiple factors can impact the container freight market by driving changes in the supply of available capacity or demand for container shipping. These include:

Seasonal demand increases from July to October in advance of consumer events and in the lead up to the Lunar New Year holiday in China – usually in February – as shippers pull forward a few weeks of demand before manufacturing pauses over the holiday break.

Increases/decreases in consumer spending linked to general economic growth or recession or by unforeseen factors like the boost to consumer spending on goods during the pandemic.

Geopolitics can change freight dynamics too. Trade wars that result in tariffs can lead to a rush of importing activity before the tariff is rolled out. Blockages of waterways, like in the Red Sea, can also impact freight costs by causing the market to adapt.

Port congestion reduces the available supply of container capacity as vessels wait for a spot to open at a port. Congestion can be caused by bad weather, labor strikes, or even just a big enough increase in demand and traffic that can cause a backlog at ports.

Fleet growth – Ocean carriers need to determine in advance how many new vessels to order and sometimes the growth of the fleet can outpace the growth in demand. When this happens, carriers face downward pressure on rates as the market is oversupplied.

The volatility of the international freight market makes staying on top of trends in the market all the more important.

Get Deeper Insights & Data Access

Stay up-to-date with Freightos Terminal – your go-to data platform for air and ocean freight market intelligence. Providing you with daily, port-pair specific spot rates, updated transit time data, as well as key shipping lane event news such as inclement weather, port shutdowns, labor disruptions, and blanked sailings.

Want to learn more? Request a call with our freight experts here.

Julia Frohwein

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence appeared first on Freightos.

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Supply Chain KPIs Are No Longer Keeping Up with the Job

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Supply chain leaders are being asked to deliver far more than cost savings. They are expected to improve resilience, accelerate decisions, manage supplier risk, strengthen continuity, and support broader business strategy. Yet in many organizations, the performance metrics used to evaluate supply chain teams still reflect an older operating model built primarily around savings and transactional efficiency.

That gap matters. If the work has expanded but the scorecard has not, teams may be incentivized to optimize for short-term cost reductions while underweighting resilience, responsiveness, and risk readiness. Supplier diversification, recovery planning, sourcing cycle time, decision latency, and exposure visibility are increasingly central to supply chain performance, but they are not always captured in traditional KPI frameworks.

The Institute for Supply Management recently published a useful article on this issue, arguing that supply chain value now needs to be measured across a broader set of dimensions, including resilience, speed, risk reduction, and organizational readiness. The piece makes the case that savings remain important, but they are no longer sufficient as the primary indicator of supply chain contribution.

For supply chain executives, the larger takeaway is clear: measurement systems need to catch up with the strategic role supply chain now plays. Organizations that modernize their KPI frameworks will be better positioned to demonstrate value not only through cost control, but through continuity, agility, and better enterprise decision-making.

Read the full article from the Institute for Supply Management here: Supply Chain work has evolved faster than the KPI’s used to measure it.

The post Supply Chain KPIs Are No Longer Keeping Up with the Job appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Regulated Supply Chains Are Prioritizing Traceability Over Pure Efficiency

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For decades, supply chain strategy was dominated by efficiency. Companies reduced inventory, consolidated suppliers, optimized transportation networks, minimized operational slack, and extended global sourcing structures in pursuit of lower costs and better asset utilization.

Those priorities still matter. But in regulated industries, they are no longer enough.

Healthcare, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, food, and medical-device supply chains now operate under a broader definition of performance. Product accountability, traceability, compliance continuity, and operational control are becoming as important as traditional efficiency metrics. In these sectors, the supply chain is not simply a cost structure. It is part of the organization’s control system.

That is why traceability is moving from an administrative requirement to a strategic operating capability. It allows companies to understand where materials originated, how products moved, which lots were affected, where inventory was distributed, and which customers or facilities received product. In stable conditions, that information may appear routine. Under disruption, it becomes essential.

Efficiency Alone Can Create Fragility

Highly optimized supply chains can perform very well when conditions are stable. The problem emerges when something goes wrong.

A supplier issue, quality deviation, transportation disruption, documentation failure, or traceability gap can quickly create consequences that extend far beyond delayed delivery. In regulated environments, these failures may trigger investigations, product holds, recalls, compliance exposure, customer disruption, and reputational damage.

That changes the operating calculus. A supply chain optimized purely for cost may not provide enough visibility or control when conditions deteriorate. The result is a shift toward a more balanced view of operational performance.

The objective is no longer simply maximum efficiency. It is controlled resilience.

Traceability Is More Than Compliance

Traceability is often treated narrowly as a compliance requirement. Its strategic value is broader.

Strong traceability improves root-cause analysis. It strengthens recall precision. It supports supplier accountability. It reduces ambiguity during disruptions. It helps organizations isolate operational risk more quickly and respond with greater confidence.

In practice, traceability becomes part of the enterprise’s ability to operate under uncertainty. A supply chain that clearly understands its dependencies can respond more intelligently than one relying on fragmented records, manual investigation, and disconnected documentation.

This is especially important in industries where the cost of ambiguity is high. In food, a traceability gap can widen the scope of a recall. In pharmaceuticals, incomplete lot visibility can delay containment. In aerospace or medical devices, documentation failures can affect audit readiness, quality assurance, and customer trust.

The strategic point is straightforward: traceability is not just about knowing what happened. It is about being able to act when it matters.

Complexity Is Raising the Bar

Several forces are increasing traceability requirements across regulated industries. Global sourcing networks are longer and more complex. Product portfolios are becoming more specialized. Regulatory scrutiny continues to increase. ESG expectations are adding new accountability pressures. Serialization, product authentication, and chain-of-custody requirements are expanding.

At the same time, supply chains are becoming more digital. Sensor data, IoT monitoring, electronic batch records, serialization systems, digital quality environments, supplier platforms, and logistics visibility tools now generate far more operational information than before.

The challenge is no longer simply collecting data. The challenge is coordinating and interpreting it across the enterprise.

That requires stronger data governance, better integration, and more contextual intelligence. Traceability systems create limited value if the data remains trapped in separate systems or disconnected from operational decision-making.

Traceability Depends on Coordination

A quality alert matters only if the organization can quickly identify affected inventory. A supplier issue matters only if downstream dependencies are visible. A transportation disruption matters only if customer, inventory, and compliance implications can be understood quickly.

This is where the broader shift toward continuous intelligence becomes important. As discussed in The Next Supply Chain Operating Model Will Be Built Around Continuous Intelligence, supply chains increasingly require systems capable of sensing, interpreting, and coordinating operational response continuously.

Traceability becomes significantly more valuable when it supports faster and more coordinated decisions. It is not enough to document product movement after the fact. Companies need traceability data to inform decisions in near real time.

This also explains why graph-oriented architectures and contextual AI systems are attracting attention. Regulated supply chain risk rarely exists in isolation. It moves through relationships among suppliers, products, lots, facilities, customers, logistics flows, and regulatory obligations.

Understanding those relationships operationally is becoming increasingly important.

The Efficiency Tradeoff Is Becoming More Nuanced

Prioritizing traceability does not mean abandoning efficiency. It means recognizing that efficiency must be balanced against resilience, accountability, and operational control.

The most efficient network on paper may not be the most resilient network under stress. A lower-cost supplier strategy may create greater exposure if visibility is weak. A highly optimized transportation network may become vulnerable if traceability and exception response are insufficient.

This does not eliminate the importance of lean operations. It changes the definition of operational maturity.

The organizations that perform best increasingly understand where visibility, traceability, and control create disproportionate strategic value. They are not simply asking how to reduce cost. They are asking where lack of control could create unacceptable operational, regulatory, or reputational exposure.

The Strategic Implication

Regulated supply chains are moving toward a broader definition of operational excellence.

Cost and efficiency still matter. But so do traceability, governed response, compliance continuity, visibility, accountability, and operational resilience.

The organizations that lead over the next decade may not simply be those with the lowest cost structures. They may be the ones capable of maintaining control, preserving trust, and coordinating response effectively under increasingly complex operating conditions.

In regulated industries, traceability is no longer merely administrative infrastructure. It is becoming part of the competitive operating model itself.

The post Why Regulated Supply Chains Are Prioritizing Traceability Over Pure Efficiency appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Medtronic: Strengthening Regulated Medical Device Supply Chains

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Medical device supply chains operate under a different standard than many commercial supply chains.

Efficiency still matters. So do inventory discipline, transportation performance, and cost control. But regulated healthcare environments must also preserve traceability, quality assurance, compliance continuity, documentation integrity, product accountability, and controlled response processes.

That changes the operating model.

Medtronic offers a useful example. As one of the world’s largest medical technology companies, it operates across a complex global network of manufacturing sites, suppliers, logistics providers, hospitals, clinicians, distributors, regulators, and field-service organizations.

The objective is not simply to move products efficiently. It is to maintain product availability, quality, traceability, and regulatory compliance at the same time.

Regulation Changes the Supply Chain Equation

In many industries, supply chain performance is measured primarily through cost, service, and working-capital efficiency.

In regulated healthcare, the equation is broader. A shipment delay matters, but so does a documentation error, labeling issue, quality deviation, traceability gap, supplier compliance problem, or uncontrolled product movement.

The consequences can extend well beyond logistics disruption. They may affect regulatory exposure, product release, recall management, or clinical continuity.

That changes how resilience is defined. In regulated supply chains, resilience is not simply the ability to move inventory around disruption. It is the ability to preserve continuity while maintaining quality, traceability, and compliance discipline throughout the process.

That is a more demanding operating requirement.

Visibility Must Extend Beyond Transportation

For medical device companies, visibility cannot stop at shipment tracking.

The enterprise also needs visibility into supplier quality, serialized inventory, manufacturing conditions, product genealogy, service inventory, documentation status, field inventory positioning, and regulatory workflows.

The supply chain is not merely transporting products. It is managing accountable product movement across a controlled operating environment.

This is why regulated industries are investing more heavily in integrated visibility and traceability systems. Companies need to know not only where products are, but whether they remain compliant, whether documentation is complete, whether quality conditions have been maintained, and whether downstream commitments remain protected.

That requires tighter coordination across supply chain, quality, manufacturing, logistics, and regulatory functions.

Exception Management Becomes More Sensitive

Exceptions carry greater operational consequence in regulated healthcare environments.

A delayed shipment may affect hospital inventory. A supplier issue may trigger quality review. A labeling problem may delay product release. A traceability gap may complicate recall management.

The organization therefore needs more than awareness. It needs governed response.

This connects directly to the broader rise of autonomous exception management in logistics operations. In regulated supply chains, earlier detection is valuable not only because it accelerates response, but because it gives the enterprise more time to coordinate a compliant response before risk escalates.

AI-assisted systems may help prioritize exceptions, assemble context, identify affected inventory, and route decisions more efficiently. But the operating environment still requires governance, escalation controls, auditability, and human oversight.

This is not uncontrolled automation. It is governed operational intelligence.

Coordination Across the Enterprise

Medical device supply chains are deeply interconnected.

Supply chain teams must coordinate continuously with manufacturing, procurement, quality, regulatory, logistics, commercial teams, field-service operations, and healthcare providers. A disruption in one part of the network can quickly propagate into others.

That is why fragmented systems create particular risk in regulated industries. Disconnected operational environments do not merely reduce efficiency. They can increase operational and compliance exposure at the same time.

For medical device companies, enterprise coordination is not a process improvement exercise. It is part of the control system that protects product integrity, customer commitments, and regulatory standing.

The Broader Lesson

Medtronic’s operating environment reflects a broader shift across regulated industries.

The future supply chain is not simply leaner or faster. It must also be more traceable, more coordinated, more governed, more resilient, and more transparent.

That requires stronger integration between supply chain execution, quality management, regulatory processes, and enterprise intelligence systems.

In regulated healthcare, the supply chain is becoming part of the trust architecture surrounding the product itself. Over the next decade, that may become one of the most important strategic operating requirements in the industry.

The post Medtronic: Strengthening Regulated Medical Device Supply Chains appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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