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Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence

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Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence

Published: December 2, 2025

Updated: December 10, 2025

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Freight Market Insights

Ocean shipping is a crucial component of global trade ensuring the smooth and effective movement of goods from manufacturers to consumers. By volume, about 90% of goods traded globally are shipped by sea, with most of those goods by value, sailing in containers. Keep reading for this month’s ocean and air update, or stay up to date on a weekly basis with our weekly update available here.

Ocean Rates Recover Even in Late-Year Lull

October featured rising trade war tensions between the US and China, including mid-month reciprocal roll outs of port call fees for US and Chinese vessel arrivals at Chinese and US ports, respectively, and a Trump threat of 100% tariffs on China starting November 1st.

But following a much anticipated end of month Trump-Xi his meeting, President Trump announced that the US will reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on China from 20% to 10%, extend the reciprocal tariff pause for a year and postpone USTR port call fees, with China also postponing its port fees and agreeing to other concessions.

This deescalation puts US tariffs on China back to March levels. These moves may be unlikely to spur a sudden surge in transpac freight demand, but do mean that supply chain stakeholders have more certainty and stability regarding the tariff landscape than at any point so far in 2025.

Trump also announced trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia late in October while establishing frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand, generally featuring 20% US tariff baselines with various exemptions in exchange for reduced barriers to US exports and investment/purchase commitments, likewise leading to a firmer tariff landscape than earlier in the year.

Despite soft post-peak season demand leading rates to slump to year-lows by mid-October, East-West container rates rebounded mid-month on GRI gains, supported by significant blanked sailings.

Transpacific rates to the West Coast increased 40% in the last two weeks of October to $2,000/FEU, 16% to the East Coast to $3,500/FEU, with Asia-Europe prices climbing 30% to close the month at $2,270/FEU.

Rates on these lanes rebounded to mid-September levels and now exceed October 2023 prices after dropping to about pre-Red Sea crisis levels mid-month, with carriers potentially introducing additional GRIs for November.

Even with these rate gains however, prices remain 40% to 60% lower than a year ago. Red Sea diversions absorbing capacity were credited as the main driver of highly elevated rates last year. That rates are falling even while Red Sea diversions continue points to capacity growth as an important factor for current rate levels

Air Rates Climbing, Despite Peak Season Skepticism

China – US Freightos Air Index air cargo rates climbed 10% in the last two weeks of October to $5.64/kg – their highest sustained level since March – possibly driven by Trump’s Nov. 1st 100% tariff threat. Some experts are skeptical there will be much of an air peak season this year due to trade war frontloading and impacts on e-commerce volumes. But if climbing rates do signal the start of the seasonal rush, it is muted compared to a year ago when prices were already at about $7.00/kg. South East Asia – N. America rates have climbed 3% in the last few weeks to $5.14/kg. Transatlantic rates have increased 9% to $1.85/kg, their highest level since June.

China – Europe prices are up 7% over the last month to about the $4.00/kg level and on par with last year despite reports of significant year on year volume increases on this lane, while SEA-Europe rates are up 13% to $3.55/kg. Climbing rates may indicate the start of peak season demand on these lanes, but rates on par with last year despite volume growth may reflect that capacity is shifting to where the volumes are too.

Understanding the Freight Market & Trends

Multiple factors can impact operations and rates in the container shipping market.

Increases in consumer demand for goods leads to increased demand for ocean freight and can put pressure on operations and lead to higher prices as space on vessels fills up.

Examples of drivers of increased demand include typical seasonal increases like those that occur most years during the ocean peak season from about July to October to build inventory for shopping events from back-to-school through the holiday season.

But demand can also be driven by geopolitical factors like trade wars that push shippers to increase orders before new tariffs go into effect, or unique events like the pandemic that drove consumers to shift spending from services to goods as they were stuck at home.

An increase in demand and container traffic can often lead to congestion at ports, which also tends to delay vessels and reduce effective supply in the market. Congestion for other reasons – like bad weather, labor strikes that create backlogs, or unusual events like the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 or the Red Sea diversions in 2024 – can also lead to backlogs and congestion.

Together, increases in demand or port congestion (and the two often occur together) put upward pressure on freight rates until demand declines and/or congestion eases. Ocean carriers will increase rates by announcing General Rate Increases (GRIs) for prices on a given lane, or adding to the existing base rate through different surcharges like a Peak Season Surcharge or Port Congestion Fee.

When demand for shipping decreases, freight rates generally drop as well. Again, demand can decrease seasonally during the non-peak months of the year, or can be driven by macroeconomic factors like recession or inflation.

Carriers will try to nonetheless keep vessels reasonably full and freight rates at profitable levels by reducing capacity through decreasing the number of vessels they operate by canceling, or “blanking” scheduled sailings. Downward pressure on rates can also happen if the global fleet has grown through the building of new vessels but more quickly than demand has expanded.

The container market is considered quite a volatile one, and plenty of examples even from the last few years demonstrate that unexpected changes in demand, spikes in port congestion, or geopolitical events can disrupt operations or send freight rates spiking.

This volatility makes staying on top of trends in the market all the more important to logistics stakeholders committed to making informed decisions and creating strategies for supply chain resiliency even in times of disruptions.

Key Factors Affecting the Freight Market

As noted, multiple factors can impact the container freight market by driving changes in the supply of available capacity or demand for container shipping. These include:

Seasonal demand increases from July to October in advance of consumer events and in the lead up to the Lunar New Year holiday in China – usually in February – as shippers pull forward a few weeks of demand before manufacturing pauses over the holiday break.

Increases/decreases in consumer spending linked to general economic growth or recession or by unforeseen factors like the boost to consumer spending on goods during the pandemic.

Geopolitics can change freight dynamics too. Trade wars that result in tariffs can lead to a rush of importing activity before the tariff is rolled out. Blockages of waterways, like in the Red Sea, can also impact freight costs by causing the market to adapt.

Port congestion reduces the available supply of container capacity as vessels wait for a spot to open at a port. Congestion can be caused by bad weather, labor strikes, or even just a big enough increase in demand and traffic that can cause a backlog at ports.

Fleet growth – Ocean carriers need to determine in advance how many new vessels to order and sometimes the growth of the fleet can outpace the growth in demand. When this happens, carriers face downward pressure on rates as the market is oversupplied.

The volatility of the international freight market makes staying on top of trends in the market all the more important.

Get Deeper Insights & Data Access

Stay up-to-date with Freightos Terminal – your go-to data platform for air and ocean freight market intelligence. Providing you with daily, port-pair specific spot rates, updated transit time data, as well as key shipping lane event news such as inclement weather, port shutdowns, labor disruptions, and blanked sailings.

Want to learn more? Request a call with our freight experts here.

Julia Frohwein

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence appeared first on Freightos.

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The New Economics of Logistics Visibility

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Knowing that a shipment will arrive six hours late is information. Knowing it early enough to reschedule labor, protect a customer commitment, avoid detention, or change an inventory decision is economic value.

That distinction is becoming central to the logistics visibility market. The earlier argument that exceptions are becoming the real unit of work explains why visibility economics depend less on event volume than on whether the organization can convert important events into timely resolution.

The first era of visibility was largely about answering a basic question: Where is my shipment? The next era is about a harder question: What should I do because its state has changed?

Visibility Is Not the Outcome

Location and status data can be valuable, but they are intermediate products. A business does not earn a return because a dot moved across a map more accurately. The return appears when information changes an operational decision. A useful way to think about visibility is as a chain: signal -> interpretation -> decision -> intervention -> economic outcome. If any link is missing, much of the potential value disappears.

A Signal Has to Arrive Inside the Decision Window

Timing matters.

A delay discovered after the customer has already missed production is history. The same delay identified early enough to expedite an alternate shipment may be actionable. An ETA update received after warehouse labor has reported for a shift may have less value than the same update received while the schedule can still be changed.

This means visibility quality is not only about accuracy. It is about whether the signal arrives with enough lead time to support an intervention.

Not Every Exception Deserves Attention

As visibility improves, organizations often discover a new problem: too many exceptions. A network with thousands of shipments will always contain delays, deviations, missed scans, changing ETAs, and incomplete data. If every deviation creates an alert, planners become the bottleneck. The more important capability is prioritization.

Which late shipment threatens a high-value order? Which delay creates a stockout? Which container risks demurrage? Which arrival change will disrupt a dock schedule? Which event is likely to self-correct without intervention?

Visibility becomes intelligence when the system can distinguish operational consequence from mere deviation.

ETA Is a Decision Input

Estimated time of arrival is a good example of how the economics are changing. ETA was once primarily a customer-service or tracking metric. Increasingly it can influence warehouse scheduling, yard planning, labor, inventory, customer promises, and downstream transportation. That makes ETA a shared operating variable.

The value increases when the prediction is connected to the systems that can respond. A changing ETA that remains trapped in a visibility dashboard creates less value than one that can trigger a workflow or decision elsewhere.

Dwell, Detention, and Demurrage Make the Economics Visible

Some visibility use cases have direct financial consequences. Better awareness of arrival, dwell, free-time windows, and container status can help organizations manage detention and demurrage exposure. Yard visibility can reduce unnecessary trailer search and moves. Earlier exception detection can protect delivery appointments and reduce costly service recovery. These cases make an important point: visibility value is often realized outside the visibility platform itself.

More Visibility Can Increase Work

This is the uncomfortable side of digital transparency. If a company exposes ten times as many events but does not improve prioritization or workflow, it may create ten times as many things for people to inspect. The result can be an expensive monitoring layer sitting on top of the same manual decision process.

That is why visibility and autonomous exception management are converging. The system must increasingly help decide which events require action, assemble context, recommend a response, and automate routine resolution where appropriate.

Measure Intervention, Not Just Coverage

Visibility programs are often measured by tracking coverage, data completeness, ETA accuracy, or number of connected carriers. Those are necessary operating metrics, but they do not fully describe business value.

Organizations should also ask: How many material exceptions were identified early enough to act? How quickly were they resolved? How often did intervention protect service or avoid cost? How many alerts required no useful action? How much planner time was consumed per exception?

Those measures connect visibility to economics.

The Market Is Moving Toward Action

This shift has strategic implications for technology providers. Pure visibility is becoming less differentiated as location and event data become more widely available. The higher-value layer is interpretation and action: understanding what an event means to a specific operation and helping execute the appropriate response.

That pushes visibility platforms toward orchestration, workflow, decision intelligence, and AI. It also pushes TMS, WMS, and other execution systems toward richer external event awareness.

The Bottleneck Moves

For years, logistics organizations complained that they could not make better decisions because they could not see what was happening. Increasingly, they can see more.

The bottleneck is moving.

When a network can identify exceptions continuously, the constraint becomes the speed and quality with which the organization can interpret and resolve them. That is precisely the environment in which AI agents become interesting—not because logistics needs another conversational interface, but because it needs more capacity to do operational work.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Autonomous Exception Management Market Map
The Economics of Decision Latency
Previous in this series: Transportation Is Becoming Computational

Request The New Architecture of Logistics Client Edition

If your organization is assessing connected execution, orchestration, AI, observability, decision velocity, or selective autonomy, I would be glad to provide the complete client edition and discuss the implications for your logistics operating model and technology architecture.

Request the client edition

The post The New Economics of Logistics Visibility appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions

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Supply chain decision-making is difficult partly because the relevant information is distributed across products, locations, suppliers, orders, capacities, policies, and external events. A system may have access to all of those records and still struggle to understand the relationships among them quickly enough to support a consequential decision.

o9 Solutions addresses that problem through its Digital Brain architecture, including an enterprise knowledge graph and in-memory modeling designed to connect demand, supply, inventory, planning, and operating context. That semantic layer is important because it gives analytics and AI a structured representation of how supply chain entities relate to one another rather than treating the environment as a collection of independent tables and documents.

The company combines this architecture with integrated planning, optimization, scenario modeling, machine learning, and human oversight. The strategic direction is toward a continuous decision environment where changes can be interpreted quickly, alternatives can be modeled, and recommendations can be traced back to the assumptions, events, and constraints that produced them.

As with any broad planning and intelligence platform, the value depends on implementation quality. Knowledge models need strong data governance, entity resolution, process ownership, and clear decision rights. A sophisticated model of the supply chain is useful only if the organization can keep it current and use it consistently in real operating workflows.

o9 Solutions appears in the Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The two MarketMaps highlight the relationship between integrated decision intelligence and the faster exception-response capabilities now developing around it.

The post o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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AI Will Not Transform the Supply Chain Until the Architecture Around It Catches Up

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Executive thesis. The model is becoming the least durable layer of the AI stack. Sustainable advantage will come from the operating architecture around AI: authoritative context, governed tools, permissions, observability, and connection to enterprise workflows.

The model is only one component

Supply chain AI discussions often begin with model capability: prediction accuracy, reasoning quality, computer vision performance, or the fluency of a generative system. Those capabilities matter, but operational value depends on everything around the model. The system still needs authoritative context, enterprise tools, permissions, workflow, observability, and a reliable path from recommendation to action.

Different AI patterns solve different problems

Prediction, optimization, generative AI, vision, and agents should not be treated as interchangeable technologies. Forecasting demand, selecting a route, extracting information from a document, interpreting an image, and executing a multi-step workflow require different evidence, control, and performance measures. A mature architecture starts with the decision or task and chooses the AI pattern that fits it.

Context is the operating fuel

An AI system can produce a plausible answer while using stale or incomplete operational context. In logistics, that can be dangerous because the truth may reside across orders, inventory, rates, carrier status, warehouse state, supplier records, and policy documents. Retrieval, master data, identity resolution, and system access therefore become part of the AI architecture, not secondary data-engineering concerns.

Tool access turns intelligence into consequence

The moment an AI system can create a shipment, change an order, contact a carrier, release inventory, or approve an exception, governance becomes an operational requirement. Tool permissions, financial limits, approval gates, idempotency, retries, and rollback are the mechanisms that separate an interesting demonstration from a dependable production workflow.

Measure workflow performance

A fluent response is not the right success metric for operational AI. Supply chain leaders should measure decision latency, manual context gathering, exception closure, override behavior, error recovery, tool failure, and the business outcome being improved. That measurement discipline also creates a rational basis for expanding autonomy as evidence accumulates.

The Logistics Viewpoints AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide separates the major AI patterns and connects them to data, tools, governance, workflow, observability, and ROI—the architecture required to move from model capability to operating value.

Executive implication

AI strategy should separate model selection from control architecture and measure value through workflow performance, decision quality, and operational outcomes.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. AI & Advanced Analytics connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

Download: AI in the Supply Chain — From Architecture to Execution
The New Architecture of Logistics

Go Deeper

Read the full AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide.

Explore the broader AI & Advanced Analytics domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

The post AI Will Not Transform the Supply Chain Until the Architecture Around It Catches Up appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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