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Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence

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Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence

Published: December 2, 2025

Updated: December 10, 2025

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Freight Market Insights

Ocean shipping is a crucial component of global trade ensuring the smooth and effective movement of goods from manufacturers to consumers. By volume, about 90% of goods traded globally are shipped by sea, with most of those goods by value, sailing in containers. Keep reading for this month’s ocean and air update, or stay up to date on a weekly basis with our weekly update available here.

Ocean Rates Recover Even in Late-Year Lull

October featured rising trade war tensions between the US and China, including mid-month reciprocal roll outs of port call fees for US and Chinese vessel arrivals at Chinese and US ports, respectively, and a Trump threat of 100% tariffs on China starting November 1st.

But following a much anticipated end of month Trump-Xi his meeting, President Trump announced that the US will reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on China from 20% to 10%, extend the reciprocal tariff pause for a year and postpone USTR port call fees, with China also postponing its port fees and agreeing to other concessions.

This deescalation puts US tariffs on China back to March levels. These moves may be unlikely to spur a sudden surge in transpac freight demand, but do mean that supply chain stakeholders have more certainty and stability regarding the tariff landscape than at any point so far in 2025.

Trump also announced trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia late in October while establishing frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand, generally featuring 20% US tariff baselines with various exemptions in exchange for reduced barriers to US exports and investment/purchase commitments, likewise leading to a firmer tariff landscape than earlier in the year.

Despite soft post-peak season demand leading rates to slump to year-lows by mid-October, East-West container rates rebounded mid-month on GRI gains, supported by significant blanked sailings.

Transpacific rates to the West Coast increased 40% in the last two weeks of October to $2,000/FEU, 16% to the East Coast to $3,500/FEU, with Asia-Europe prices climbing 30% to close the month at $2,270/FEU.

Rates on these lanes rebounded to mid-September levels and now exceed October 2023 prices after dropping to about pre-Red Sea crisis levels mid-month, with carriers potentially introducing additional GRIs for November.

Even with these rate gains however, prices remain 40% to 60% lower than a year ago. Red Sea diversions absorbing capacity were credited as the main driver of highly elevated rates last year. That rates are falling even while Red Sea diversions continue points to capacity growth as an important factor for current rate levels

Air Rates Climbing, Despite Peak Season Skepticism

China – US Freightos Air Index air cargo rates climbed 10% in the last two weeks of October to $5.64/kg – their highest sustained level since March – possibly driven by Trump’s Nov. 1st 100% tariff threat. Some experts are skeptical there will be much of an air peak season this year due to trade war frontloading and impacts on e-commerce volumes. But if climbing rates do signal the start of the seasonal rush, it is muted compared to a year ago when prices were already at about $7.00/kg. South East Asia – N. America rates have climbed 3% in the last few weeks to $5.14/kg. Transatlantic rates have increased 9% to $1.85/kg, their highest level since June.

China – Europe prices are up 7% over the last month to about the $4.00/kg level and on par with last year despite reports of significant year on year volume increases on this lane, while SEA-Europe rates are up 13% to $3.55/kg. Climbing rates may indicate the start of peak season demand on these lanes, but rates on par with last year despite volume growth may reflect that capacity is shifting to where the volumes are too.

Understanding the Freight Market & Trends

Multiple factors can impact operations and rates in the container shipping market.

Increases in consumer demand for goods leads to increased demand for ocean freight and can put pressure on operations and lead to higher prices as space on vessels fills up.

Examples of drivers of increased demand include typical seasonal increases like those that occur most years during the ocean peak season from about July to October to build inventory for shopping events from back-to-school through the holiday season.

But demand can also be driven by geopolitical factors like trade wars that push shippers to increase orders before new tariffs go into effect, or unique events like the pandemic that drove consumers to shift spending from services to goods as they were stuck at home.

An increase in demand and container traffic can often lead to congestion at ports, which also tends to delay vessels and reduce effective supply in the market. Congestion for other reasons – like bad weather, labor strikes that create backlogs, or unusual events like the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 or the Red Sea diversions in 2024 – can also lead to backlogs and congestion.

Together, increases in demand or port congestion (and the two often occur together) put upward pressure on freight rates until demand declines and/or congestion eases. Ocean carriers will increase rates by announcing General Rate Increases (GRIs) for prices on a given lane, or adding to the existing base rate through different surcharges like a Peak Season Surcharge or Port Congestion Fee.

When demand for shipping decreases, freight rates generally drop as well. Again, demand can decrease seasonally during the non-peak months of the year, or can be driven by macroeconomic factors like recession or inflation.

Carriers will try to nonetheless keep vessels reasonably full and freight rates at profitable levels by reducing capacity through decreasing the number of vessels they operate by canceling, or “blanking” scheduled sailings. Downward pressure on rates can also happen if the global fleet has grown through the building of new vessels but more quickly than demand has expanded.

The container market is considered quite a volatile one, and plenty of examples even from the last few years demonstrate that unexpected changes in demand, spikes in port congestion, or geopolitical events can disrupt operations or send freight rates spiking.

This volatility makes staying on top of trends in the market all the more important to logistics stakeholders committed to making informed decisions and creating strategies for supply chain resiliency even in times of disruptions.

Key Factors Affecting the Freight Market

As noted, multiple factors can impact the container freight market by driving changes in the supply of available capacity or demand for container shipping. These include:

Seasonal demand increases from July to October in advance of consumer events and in the lead up to the Lunar New Year holiday in China – usually in February – as shippers pull forward a few weeks of demand before manufacturing pauses over the holiday break.

Increases/decreases in consumer spending linked to general economic growth or recession or by unforeseen factors like the boost to consumer spending on goods during the pandemic.

Geopolitics can change freight dynamics too. Trade wars that result in tariffs can lead to a rush of importing activity before the tariff is rolled out. Blockages of waterways, like in the Red Sea, can also impact freight costs by causing the market to adapt.

Port congestion reduces the available supply of container capacity as vessels wait for a spot to open at a port. Congestion can be caused by bad weather, labor strikes, or even just a big enough increase in demand and traffic that can cause a backlog at ports.

Fleet growth – Ocean carriers need to determine in advance how many new vessels to order and sometimes the growth of the fleet can outpace the growth in demand. When this happens, carriers face downward pressure on rates as the market is oversupplied.

The volatility of the international freight market makes staying on top of trends in the market all the more important.

Get Deeper Insights & Data Access

Stay up-to-date with Freightos Terminal – your go-to data platform for air and ocean freight market intelligence. Providing you with daily, port-pair specific spot rates, updated transit time data, as well as key shipping lane event news such as inclement weather, port shutdowns, labor disruptions, and blanked sailings.

Want to learn more? Request a call with our freight experts here.

Julia Frohwein

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post Freight Market Trends & Ocean Freight Intelligence appeared first on Freightos.

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Technology Strategy, Not Technology Noise: A Practical AI Playbook for Supply Chain Leaders

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Supply-chain executives face no shortage of technology advice.

They are told to adopt artificial intelligence, automate decision-making, modernize legacy systems, build digital twins, improve visibility, connect suppliers, deploy agents, and prepare for autonomous operations.

Most of these recommendations are directionally reasonable. Taken together, however, they can create more confusion than clarity.

The problem is not that supply-chain organizations lack access to technology. It is that they often lack a disciplined method for deciding which technologies deserve investment, which business problems should be addressed first, and how new capabilities should fit into the existing operating model.

This challenge is especially acute for small and midsize enterprises, which cannot afford multiple failed pilots or overlapping platforms. Their investments must solve real problems, produce measurable returns, and reach operational use without excessive complexity.

The correct strategy is to build a focused system around the organization’s most important constraints. That requires less technology noise and more strategic discipline.

Start With the Business Constraint

Many technology programs begin with a product category.

A company decides that it needs AI, a control tower, a digital twin, robotic process automation, or an advanced planning platform. It then searches for a use case that justifies the selected technology.

The process should be reversed.

The organization should begin by identifying the operational constraint that most directly affects service, cost, growth, or resilience. That constraint might be poor forecast accuracy, excess inventory, high transportation costs, slow order processing, limited supplier visibility, excessive manual planning, inconsistent production schedules, or weak master data.

The company can then determine what combination of process changes, data improvements, software capabilities, and management decisions is required.

Technology is often part of the answer, but it is rarely the entire answer.

A forecasting problem may reflect weak data or poor coordination. A transportation problem may result from fragmented procurement or inconsistent routing. Better software can help, but only when the surrounding processes are also redesigned.

Starting with the constraint keeps the technology discussion connected to measurable business value.

Prioritize Decisions, Not Features

Enterprise software is usually sold through features.

Vendors demonstrate dashboards, alerts, recommendations, workflows, scenario tools, and AI assistants. The demonstrations may be impressive, but they can obscure the most important question: Which decisions will improve?

A useful technology strategy identifies the decisions the organization wants to make faster, more consistently, or with better information.

Examples include how much inventory to position at each location, when to expedite a shipment, which supplier poses the greatest risk, how to resequence production after a disruption, which carrier should receive a load, and when an exception should be escalated.

Once those decisions are defined, the company can evaluate whether technology improves their speed, quality, consistency, or economic outcome.

This is particularly important for AI.

An AI system that generates a polished explanation may appear valuable without changing an operational result. A simpler application that helps a planner resolve exceptions 20 minutes faster may produce a clearer return.

The goal is not to maximize the number of AI features. It is to improve the economics and reliability of important decisions.

Build on a Minimum Viable Data Foundation

Technology programs frequently stall because organizations underestimate the condition of their data.

Supply-chain data is often fragmented across systems, uses inconsistent identifiers, and contains outdated lead times or inaccurate inventory records.

A company does not need perfect data before beginning a technology initiative. Waiting for complete data perfection can become another form of delay.

It does need enough trusted data to support the selected decision.

The minimum viable data foundation should identify which systems hold the required information, who owns each data element, how frequently the data is updated, which records are reliable enough for operational use, where definitions conflict, and what happens when data is missing.

This work may sound less exciting than deploying AI, but it often determines whether the technology produces value.

Improve the data required for the first high-value use case, then reuse that foundation as additional applications are added.

Use AI Where Judgment and Information Intersect

Artificial intelligence is most useful where employees must interpret large amounts of information, recognize patterns, and make repeatable judgments under time pressure.

Supply chains contain many such situations.

A planner may need to understand why an order is late, which customers are affected, what inventory is available elsewhere, and which recovery options are practical. Procurement and logistics teams face similarly information-intensive judgments.

AI can help gather information, summarize evidence, classify events, generate alternatives, and prepare recommendations.

It should not automatically receive authority over every operational decision.

The level of autonomy should reflect the consequences of error.

Low-risk tasks such as document classification, status summarization, and draft communication may be highly automated. Medium-risk actions may require human review. High-impact decisions involving safety, contractual commitments, large expenditures, production shutdowns, or customer allocation should retain explicit human approval.

This graduated model allows organizations to gain productivity without treating autonomy as the primary measure of progress.

The most valuable AI system may not be the one that eliminates the planner. It may be the one that allows the planner to manage three times as many exceptions with better information.

Avoid the Pilot Trap

Many companies have accumulated technology pilots that never reached production.

A pilot is launched because the technology appears promising. A small team demonstrates that it can work under controlled conditions. The project receives positive feedback, but the organization never resolves integration, ownership, funding, governance, or process-design requirements.

The pilot remains an experiment.

To avoid this pattern, companies should define the production path before the pilot begins. That includes the business owner, operational users, target workflow, required data, system integrations, success metrics, control requirements, expected operating cost, deployment timeline, and stopping conditions.

A pilot should answer a specific uncertainty. It may test whether the model is accurate enough, whether users will adopt the workflow, whether the required data is available, or whether the economics are attractive.

If the uncertainty is resolved positively, the company should know what comes next.

Favor Modular Architecture Over Premature Platforms

Supply-chain leaders are often encouraged to select a single platform that will support planning, execution, visibility, analytics, automation, and AI.

Platforms can reduce integration effort, simplify support, and provide a consistent data and security environment.

But broad platforms can also create lock-in, slow implementation, and force companies to accept average capabilities in areas where they need specialized performance.

Smaller organizations should be especially careful about purchasing a large platform based on capabilities they may not use for years.

A more practical strategy is modular.

The company can maintain a stable transactional core while adding specialized capabilities around it. APIs, integration platforms, shared data models, and standardized tool interfaces can help those components work together.

The objective is to preserve the ability to add or replace capabilities without rebuilding the entire environment. This is especially important as models, optimization engines, and workflow tools continue to evolve.

Measure Operational Value

Technology programs should be judged against operational and financial outcomes.

The appropriate measures depend on the use case, but they may include planner hours saved, forecast error reduced, inventory lowered, service levels improved, expedite costs avoided, transportation spending reduced, exceptions resolved faster, downtime prevented, supplier risks identified earlier, and working capital released.

These metrics should be established before implementation.

Usage statistics are insufficient. Organizations must also measure accuracy, business impact, and the ongoing cost of models, cloud infrastructure, integration, monitoring, and human review.

The correct comparison is between the total cost of the new operating model and the measurable value it produces.

Develop Capability in Stages

A practical technology strategy should advance through controlled stages.

First, digitize and standardize the workflow. A broken manual process should not be automated without understanding why it is broken.

Second, improve visibility so users can access reliable information about orders, inventory, shipments, suppliers, and production resources.

Third, introduce decision support through analytics, optimization, or AI.

Fourth, automate repeatable low-risk actions within established limits.

Fifth, expand autonomy only where performance, controls, and economics justify it.

This sequence may appear slower than announcing an autonomous supply-chain initiative. In practice, it is often faster because each stage creates usable value and reduces the risk of scaling an unstable process.

Technology Strategy Is a Management Discipline

The central technology challenge facing supply-chain organizations is selection.

Companies must decide where technology will create competitive advantage, where it will improve efficiency, and where investment should be delayed.

For small and midsize organizations, focus is itself a strategic asset. They may not be able to fund every emerging capability, but they can often move faster when they select one meaningful constraint, assign clear ownership, and build a solution around measurable results.

The strongest technology strategy is not the one with the longest list of platforms, pilots, and AI features.

It is the one that connects a limited number of well-chosen technologies to the decisions that determine operational performance.

Supply-chain leaders should begin with the constraint, define the decision, establish the required data, select the smallest viable solution, and measure the result.

That approach may sound less dramatic than a broad digital-transformation program.

It is also far more likely to produce one.

The post Technology Strategy, Not Technology Noise: A Practical AI Playbook for Supply Chain Leaders appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Model Context Protocol and the Future of Agentic Supply Chains

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Most large companies now operate combinations of enterprise resource planning systems, transportation management systems, warehouse management systems, planning applications, supplier portals, control towers, data platforms, and specialized analytics tools. Yet employees still spend substantial time searching for information, reconciling records, moving data between applications, and coordinating work through email and spreadsheets.

Artificial intelligence agents could change this operating model.

An agent can interpret a request, gather information, select tools, complete a sequence of tasks, and adjust its behavior based on the result. Instead of merely answering a question, it could investigate a late shipment, determine the likely cause, evaluate alternatives, and prepare a recommended response.

But agents cannot operate effectively if every enterprise system speaks a different technical language.

This is why Model Context Protocol, or MCP, could become important to the next generation of supply-chain architecture.

MCP is an open protocol designed to standardize how AI applications connect to external data, tools, and systems. It provides a common method for exposing information and capabilities to AI models without requiring a unique integration for every model, application, and data source.

If AI agents are to become useful in supply-chain operations, they need a consistent way to discover available resources, retrieve the correct context, and invoke approved actions. MCP is one possible mechanism for creating that layer.

The Integration Problem Behind Enterprise AI

Large language models can summarize documents, generate explanations, and reason over text. On their own, however, they do not know the current status of an order, inventory position, shipment, supplier, production schedule, or customer commitment.

That information lives in ERP databases, planning platforms, carrier portals, warehouse systems, supplier-risk services, document repositories, and custom applications.

To become operationally useful, a model must reach those systems.

Early enterprise AI implementations have generally relied on custom integrations connecting a model to a database, API, search service, or software platform. This can work for a narrow use case, but problems appear when companies attempt to scale.

If an organization uses several AI models, dozens of systems, and a growing number of agent workflows, integration complexity rises quickly. Security rules may differ across projects. Tool definitions become inconsistent. Updates to one system may break multiple agents. Governance becomes difficult because no common layer controls how AI applications interact with enterprise resources.

MCP attempts to reduce this many-to-many problem by introducing a standardized interface between AI applications and external systems.

What MCP Actually Does

MCP uses a client-server architecture.

An AI application acts as the client. External systems, tools, or data sources are represented through MCP servers. Each server exposes a defined set of resources and capabilities that an authorized AI application can discover and use.

An MCP server describes the data and executable tools an authorized AI application can use.

An agent investigating a delayed customer order might use one server to retrieve order details, another to obtain shipment status, another to review inventory at alternative facilities, and another to calculate expedited transportation options.

None of this is impossible without MCP. These capabilities can be built through conventional APIs, middleware, and integration platforms.

The potential value is standardization.

A common protocol could make it easier to expose enterprise capabilities to multiple AI systems while maintaining a consistent access and control layer.

From Chatbots to Operational Agents

Many current enterprise AI deployments are conversational interfaces placed over existing information.

A user asks a question. The system retrieves content. The model generates a response.

That can improve productivity, but it does not fundamentally change the operating model.

Agentic systems go further. They can break a goal into tasks, select tools, execute steps, inspect results, and continue until they reach a stopping condition.

Consider a critical component expected to arrive three days late.

A conventional alert may notify a planner, who then needs to confirm the delay, identify affected production orders, check inventory, assess substitutes, review alternative suppliers, evaluate expedited freight, estimate customer impact, and coordinate a recovery plan.

An agent could assemble much of this analysis. It might retrieve shipment status, query the production schedule, calculate days of supply, identify affected orders, and prepare several recovery options.

The human planner would retain critical decision authority but receive a structured recommendation instead of beginning with fragmented information.

For this to work, the agent needs reliable access to many different applications and data sources.

That is where MCP becomes strategically relevant.

An AI-Facing Access Layer

Traditional integration platforms focus on moving data and coordinating transactions among systems.

MCP addresses a different layer. It helps an AI application discover and use tools in a format designed for model-driven interaction.

That distinction matters because an agent does not always follow a fixed workflow. It may choose different tools depending on the problem.

Different disruptions require different tools and responses. The agent must understand which tools exist, what inputs they require, and what outputs they provide.

An MCP server can expose those capabilities in a consistent, machine-readable format.

This does not eliminate APIs, middleware, master-data systems, or integration platforms. In many cases, the MCP server will sit above those capabilities.

It becomes an AI-facing access layer: a method for making existing enterprise architecture legible and usable to agents.

A Modular Supply-Chain Architecture

The long-term potential becomes clearer when MCP servers are viewed as reusable enterprise building blocks.

Transportation, warehouse, planning, and supplier servers could expose approved capabilities such as shipment status, inventory, forecasts, capacity, risk indicators, and optimization tools.

Once standardized, the same capabilities could serve procurement, planning, logistics, and customer-service agents. This reduces duplicate integrations and supports a more modular architecture.

Specialized Agents Are More Realistic

The most credible enterprise future is unlikely to involve one all-powerful agent controlling the entire supply chain.

Supply chains are too complex, specialized, and consequential for that model.

A more realistic architecture consists of multiple agents with bounded responsibilities. A company might deploy a transportation-exception agent, supplier-risk agent, demand-planning agent, warehouse-labor agent, procurement agent, and production-scheduling agent.

Each agent would have access only to the tools and information required for its role.

A transportation agent might retrieve rates and recommend carrier changes but lack authority to change supplier payment terms. A procurement agent might analyze supplier performance and prepare a sourcing event but be unable to release production orders.

Specialized agents will also need to coordinate. A supplier disruption may begin as a procurement problem, become a planning issue, trigger a transportation requirement, and ultimately affect customer service.

MCP helps agents interact with tools and systems. Agent-to-agent protocols are intended to help agents exchange tasks and context with one another.

Together, these technologies could support a layered architecture in which enterprise systems hold operational records, integration platforms connect those systems, MCP servers expose approved capabilities, specialized agents perform bounded tasks, and humans retain decision authority.

This is not a fully autonomous supply chain. It is structured machine-assisted coordination.

Why Software Vendors Should Pay Attention

In an agentic environment, users may interact less frequently with application screens. An agent could call planning, inventory, transportation, and supplier capabilities in the background.

Vendors must therefore decide which functions they expose, how they secure them, and whether they support open protocols or proprietary frameworks. Competitive advantage may increasingly depend on making capabilities easy to discover, govern, and combine with other systems.

Governance Will Determine Whether This Works

The promise of MCP should not obscure the risks.

An agent with access to enterprise tools can cause operational damage if permissions, validation, and monitoring are weak. A mistaken tool call could change an order, expose confidential information, select an inappropriate carrier, or initiate an unauthorized transaction.

Companies will need strict controls around identity, authentication, authorization, data exposure, tool permissions, audit trails, and human approval.

Read access should be separated from transaction authority. High-impact actions should require approval. Tool outputs should be validated before they are used in subsequent steps.

Organizations must also defend against prompt injection, malicious tool descriptions, compromised servers, and incorrect model reasoning.

MCP can standardize access, but it does not make that access inherently safe.

A Practical Path Forward

Supply-chain leaders do not need to redesign their enterprise architecture around MCP immediately.

A practical starting point is one bounded workflow with measurable value and limited operational risk.

A transportation exception, supplier document review, order-status investigation, or inventory inquiry may be more appropriate than autonomous procurement or production scheduling.

The company can expose a small number of approved tools, establish permissions, test the workflow, and measure both operational performance and control effectiveness.

The objective is not to deploy agents everywhere. It is to learn where standardized tool access reduces integration effort and improves decision speed.

MCP may not become the dominant protocol, but the broader architectural direction is difficult to ignore.

AI models are moving beyond isolated chat interfaces. They are beginning to interact with the systems where operational work occurs.

For supply-chain organizations, the strategic question is no longer whether AI can generate useful answers. It is whether agents can access the right data, use the right tools, and act within the right controls.

Protocols such as MCP could provide part of that foundation.

The companies that prepare their systems, permissions, and workflows for this environment will be better positioned to move from AI experimentation to operational value.

The post Model Context Protocol and the Future of Agentic Supply Chains appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Freight rate update for July 29th – July 29, 2026 Update

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Weekly highlights

The Freightos Weekly Update is on hiatus this week – but we’ll be back next week!

In the meantime, here are this week’s changes to freight rates on some of the major lanes.

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 12% to $6,212/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 1% to $9,002/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3% to $5,575/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 2% to $6,697/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 2% to $5.76/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 10% to $3.84/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices stayed level at $1.93/kg.

Freightos Terminal: Real-time pricing dashboards to benchmark rates and track market trends.

Procure: Streamlined procurement and cost savings with digital rate management and automated workflows.

Rate, Book, & Manage: Real-time rate comparison, instant booking, and easy tracking at every shipment stage.

The post Freight rate update for July 29th – July 29, 2026 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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