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Hope growing for China-US deescalation – October 28, 2025 Update

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Hope growing for China-US deescalation – October 28, 2025 Update

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October 28, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 20% to $2,027/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 14% to $3,500/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 15% to $2,267/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 6% to $2,278/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 6% to $5.64/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices stayed level at $3.97/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly increased 4% to $1.85/kg.

Analysis

“Expectations are high that a significant deescalation of China-US trade tensions – possibly featuring tariff levels below the baseline set back in May – is possible in the coming days.

High level US-China meetings in Malaysia over the weekend reportedly brought the two sides closer on many issues after weeks of growing pressure. This sign of progress has generated optimism that the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in S. Korea could result in, among other changes, an extension of tariff levels in place since the May truce – if not a reduction to a lower US baseline duties on China if fentanyl-related tariffs are adjusted – and a reconsideration of the recently introduced port call fees.

Other trade progress during President Trump’s Far East visit included announced deals with Malaysia and Cambodia, and frameworks for agreements with Vietnam and Thailand. All of these agreements feature about a 20% US tariff baseline for exports from these countries, coupled with reductions or exemptions for various types of goods in exchange for lowered trade barriers to US exports and commitments for purchases from and investment in the US. The past week also saw the president call off negotiations with Canada and state he will increase tariffs on Canadian exports by 10%.

In ocean freight, the USTR port call fees could have cost Chinese container vessels as much as $42M to dock at US ports last week. And though there have been few reports of US container ships impacted at China’s ports yet, fees for US vessels docking in China are reportedly leading to a significant number of bulk vessels waiting – possibly for a rule change – off the coast.

Despite the current lull in demand, East-West container rates have for the most part sustained their mid-October GRI gains supported mostly by significant increases in blanked sailings.

Transpacific and Asia-N. Europe rates increased 15% to 20% last week to about $2,000/FEU to the West Coast, $3,500/FEU to the East Coast and $2,270/FEU to Europe. Rates have stayed about level so far this week on these lanes, with Asia – Mediterranean prices easing about $100/FEU.

These increases push prices back to about mid-September levels on these trades, when rates likewise rebounded briefly on GRIs. Prices are now well above October 2023 levels after approaching parity with pre-Red Sea crisis rates a couple weeks ago. To start November, some carriers may introduce additional GRIs whose success may likewise depend on effective capacity management.

China – US Freightos Air Index air cargo rates have climbed 10% in the last two weeks to $5.64/kg – their highest sustained level since March – possibly driven by Trump’s Nov. 1st 100% tariff threat. Some experts are skeptical there will be much of an air peak season this year due to trade war frontloading and impacts on e-commerce volumes. But if climbing rates do signal the start of the seasonal rush, it is muted compared to a year ago when prices were already at about $7.00/kg. South East Asia – N. America rates have climbed 3% in the last few weeks to $5.14/kg. Transatlantic rates have increased 9% to $1.85/kg, their highest level since June.

China – Europe prices are up 7% over the last month to about the $4.00/kg level and on par with last year despite reports of significant year on year volume increases on this lane, while SEA-Europe rates are up 13% to $3.55/kg.”

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Join us for Tomorrow’s Webinar: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain: Turning Commitments into Competitive Advantage

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Join Us For Tomorrow’s Webinar: Building A Sustainable Supply Chain: Turning Commitments Into Competitive Advantage

Sustainability has moved beyond corporate responsibility. Today, it’s a core element of supply chain performance and brand value. Organizations across every sector are rethinking how materials are sourced, products are moved, and data is managed to reduce emissions, improve efficiency, and strengthen resilience.

Join us for an in-depth Logistics Viewpoints webinar on Sustainability in the Supply Chain, where industry leaders will share how they are embedding environmental and social responsibility into the fabric of their operations. This session will explore practical steps for achieving measurable progress — not just pledges — in areas such as supplier engagement, energy management, and circular logistics.

Key topics include:

Proven frameworks for integrating sustainability into procurement and manufacturing
Tools and metrics for tracking emissions and improving data visibility
How transparency and collaboration can reduce risk and enhance competitiveness
Lessons learned from companies leading the charge toward carbon-smart logistics

Our expert panel will focus on real-world case studies and actionable takeaways, giving attendees insights they can immediately apply to strengthen their sustainability programs.

Whether your organization is just beginning its journey or refining an established strategy, this webinar offers a roadmap to align sustainability goals with measurable business outcomes.

Register now to join us live and learn how forward-thinking companies are transforming sustainability from a compliance obligation into a competitive advantage.

The post Join us for Tomorrow’s Webinar: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain: Turning Commitments into Competitive Advantage appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Stellantis: $13 Billion, 5,000 Jobs, and a New U.S. Manufacturing Strategy, Reshaping the North American Supply Chain

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Stellantis: $13 Billion, 5,000 Jobs, And A New U.s. Manufacturing Strategy, Reshaping The North American Supply Chain

AUBURN HILLS, MI. Stellantis announced plans to invest $13 billion over the next four years to expand its U.S. manufacturing footprint. The initiative will add more than 5,000 jobs across Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana and increase U.S. vehicle production by about 50 percent.

The investment will fund five new vehicle programs, 19 product refreshes, and a new four-cylinder engine program. It is the company’s largest single U.S. investment and signals a long-term commitment to both internal combustion and electrified vehicle platforms.

“This investment in the U.S. will drive our growth, strengthen our manufacturing footprint, and bring more American jobs to the states we call home,” said Antonio Filosa, Stellantis CEO and North America COO. “As we begin our next 100 years, we are putting the customer at the center of our strategy, expanding our vehicle offerings, and giving them the freedom to choose the products they want and love.”

“Accelerating growth in the U.S. has been a top priority since my first day,” Filosa added. “Success in America is not just good for Stellantis in the U.S. It makes us stronger everywhere.”

State-by-State Overview

Illinois: Belvidere Plant Reopening
Stellantis will invest $600 million to reopen the Belvidere Assembly Plant for production of two Jeep models, the Cherokee and Compass, beginning in 2027. The project is expected to create 3,300 jobs.

Ohio: New Midsize Truck Production
About $400 million will fund production of an all-new midsize truck at the Toledo Assembly Complex, joining the Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator lines. The move will add about 900 positions when production begins in 2028. Additional upgrades are planned across Toledo operations to support ongoing Jeep production.

Michigan: Large SUV and Dodge Durango Successor
At the Warren Truck Assembly Plant, Stellantis will invest $100 million to produce a new large SUV available in both range-extended EV and combustion formats. The launch, expected in 2028, will add 900 jobs. Another $130 million will prepare the Detroit Assembly Complex, Jefferson, for the next-generation Dodge Durango, slated for production in 2029.

Indiana: New Engine Program
In Kokomo, Stellantis will invest more than $100 million to build the new GMET4 EVO four-cylinder engine. Production is set to begin in 2026 and will add about 100 jobs.

Supply Chain and Logistics Considerations

The Stellantis plan reflects a larger trend toward regionalized manufacturing and shorter supply chains. By expanding production in the Midwest, Stellantis is reducing exposure to overseas logistics risks and shipping delays that have challenged the industry in recent years.

Reopening Belvidere and expanding operations in Toledo and Kokomo will strengthen domestic supplier ecosystems for components such as engines, drivetrains, and electronics. Adding dual powertrain lines, both EV and ICE, will require parallel material streams and more sophisticated synchronization between inbound logistics, supplier planning, and workforce scheduling.

At the same time, expansion across multiple states increases the complexity of coordination and sourcing. Tier-1 suppliers will need to adjust production capacity, labor allocation, and transportation networks to align with Stellantis’ new programs. Global lead times for critical components such as semiconductors, battery modules, and sensors remain unpredictable, requiring early-stage visibility and contingency planning.

For the broader supply chain, the challenge lies in maintaining steady component availability while scaling new vehicle lines and managing cost pressures tied to both traditional and electrified platforms.

Outlook

Stellantis operates 34 U.S. facilities across 14 states and employs more than 48,000 people. This new investment deepens that footprint and aligns with an operational goal of building greater resilience and control within the domestic production network.

For supply chain leaders, Stellantis’ move highlights the continued shift toward regional production, flexible sourcing strategies, and closer collaboration between OEMs and their supplier networks. The focus now is not just on capacity but on stability, adaptability, and execution across interconnected plants and partner

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OpenAI and AWS Forge $38B Alliance, Microsoft Exclusivity Ends, New Multi-Cloud AI Compute Era Begins

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Openai And Aws Forge $38b Alliance, Microsoft Exclusivity Ends, New Multi Cloud Ai Compute Era Begins

OpenAI has entered into a multi-year, $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services, formally ending its exclusive reliance on Microsoft Azure for cloud infrastructure. The deal, announced today, represents a fundamental realignment in the cloud compute ecosystem supporting advanced AI workloads.

Under the agreement, OpenAI will immediately begin running large-scale training and inference operations on AWS, gaining access to hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs hosted on Amazon EC2 UltraServers, along with the ability to scale across tens of millions of CPUs over the next several years.

“Scaling frontier AI requires massive, reliable compute,” said Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO. “Our partnership with AWS strengthens the broad compute ecosystem that will power this next era.”

A Structural Shift Toward Multi-Cloud AI

This marks the first formal infrastructure partnership between OpenAI and AWS. Since 2019, Microsoft has provided the primary compute backbone for OpenAI, anchored by a $13 billion investment and multi-year Azure commitment. That exclusivity expired earlier this year, opening the door to a multi-provider model.

AWS now becomes OpenAI’s largest secondary partner, joining smaller agreements already in place with Google Cloud and Oracle, and positioning itself as a co-equal pillar in OpenAI’s global compute strategy.

“AWS brings both scale and maturity to AI infrastructure,” noted Matt Garman, AWS CEO. “This agreement demonstrates why AWS is uniquely positioned to support OpenAI’s demanding AI workloads.”

Infrastructure Scope and Deployment

The deployment will include clusters of NVIDIA GB200 and GB300 GPUs linked through UltraServer nodes engineered for low-latency, high-bandwidth interconnects. The architecture supports both model training and large-scale inference, applications such as ChatGPT, Codex, and next-generation multimodal systems.

AWS has already begun allocating capacity, with full deployment expected by late 2026. The framework also includes options for expansion into 2027 and beyond, giving OpenAI flexibility as model complexity and usage continue to grow.

Continued Microsoft Collaboration

Despite the AWS deal, OpenAI maintains its strategic and financial relationship with Microsoft, including a separate $250 billion incremental commitment to Azure. The move reflects a deliberate multi-cloud posture, a strategy increasingly favored by large-scale AI developers seeking to balance cost, access to specialized chips, and platform resiliency.

Implications for Supply Chain and Infrastructure Leaders

This announcement underscores several macro-trends relevant to logistics and industrial technology executives:

AI Infrastructure Is Becoming a Supply Chain of Its Own
Cloud capacity, GPUs, and networking fabric are now constrained global commodities. Long-term compute contracts mirror procurement models traditionally seen in manufacturing or energy, locking in scarce resources ahead of demand.
Multi-Cloud Neutrality Reduces Vendor Lock-In
The shift toward multiple cloud providers parallels how diversified sourcing reduces single-supplier risk. Expect enterprise buyers to apply similar logic when procuring AI infrastructure and software services.
Operational AI at Scale Requires Cross-Vendor Interoperability
As companies like OpenAI distribute workloads across ecosystems, interoperability standards, ranging from APIs to data-plane orchestration, will become critical for continuity, performance, and governance.
CapEx Discipline Returns to the Forefront
With multi-year AI compute deals now exceeding $1.4 trillion in aggregate commitments across the sector, CFOs and CIOs are under pressure to evaluate utilization efficiency and long-term ROI of their AI infrastructure spend.

Broader Market Context

AWS’s win follows similar capacity expansions with Anthropic and Stability AI, but this partnership represents its highest-profile AI infrastructure engagement to date. It also signals that OpenAI intends to maintain independence in its technical roadmap, balancing strategic investors with diversified operational suppliers.

The timing is notable: OpenAI recently restructured its governance model to simplify corporate oversight, a move analysts interpret as preparation for a potential IPO that could value the company near $1 trillion.

AWS stock rose approximately 5 percent following the announcement, reflecting investor confidence in the long-term demand for AI-class compute.

Outlook

For the logistics and manufacturing sectors, the implications extend beyond software. The same GPU-based data centers that train language models are also powering digital twins, simulation models, and optimization engines increasingly embedded in supply chain planning.

As hyperscalers compete for AI workloads, enterprises should expect faster innovation in distributed computing, lower latency connectivity, and new pay-as-you-go models designed for AI-intensive industrial applications.

Summary

The $38 billion OpenAI–AWS partnership marks a decisive end to Microsoft’s exclusivity and a broader normalization of multi-cloud AI ecosystems.
For technology and supply-chain leaders, it serves as a reminder: compute itself has become a strategic resource, one that must now be sourced, diversified, and managed with the same rigor once reserved for physical inventory.

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