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Ocean rates climb again even as fuel costs ease – June 23, 2026 Update

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 19%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 13%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 13%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 16%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 17%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices were level.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2%.

Analysis

The US-Iran interim agreement appears to be driving a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even with Iran announcing a renewed closure following Israel and Hezbollah exchanges of fire.

Though still well below pre-war levels, Hormuz transits have increased since the announcement of the Memorandum of Understanding. As part of this week’s renewed negotiations, Iran and the US have opened a hotline between the two to avoid miscommunications regarding traffic through the Strait. But talks have also shown Iran intends to assert some control over the waterway as part of the settlement – a big shift from the pre-war status quo.

The renewed traffic comprises mostly tankers, and container carriers are likely to activate mostly feeder services instead of long haul port calls to the Gulf once transits do rebound and until confidence returns to the lane. The prospect of peace has driven CMA CGM to increase its Red Sea transits, which could signal more carriers will follow that lead at some point if negotiations progress.

The prospect of more stability as well as the fact of an increase in oil flows have already driven down crude prices, with some measures now only 5% higher than before the war. Bunker and jet fuel prices are also easing with bunker rates down 25% from their March highs and 12% compared just to the start of June, though prices remain about 40% higher than in February. Jet fuel prices are down more than 40% from their peak and are 20% higher than before the closure.

But even as fuel costs ease, container rates continue to climb as peaking demand from an early busy season is keeping vessels full at least into July. This development likewise means spot rates will start easing from the current or near term levels as demand decreases, regardless of what happens in the Strait.

The early start to peak season – driven by multiple factors including frontloading ahead of BAF increases, coming Section 122 tariff expirations and Section 301 introductions for transpacific shippers, and July manufacturer price hikes – has some observers expecting bookings to peak in June, which could mean carriers will find more resistance to July rate increases than they have to June price hikes so far.

For now though, prices are high and getting higher. Transpacific rates climbed 19% to the West Coast to more than $5,700/FEU, with daily prices past the $6k/FEU mark so far this week. Rates to the East Coast increased 13% to $7,400/FEU last week with daily rates now past $8,000/FEU – a mark already above last year’s peak season high. Some carriers have announced additional steep increases for July.

Asia – Europe rates grew 13% last week to $4,700/FEU and Asia – Mediterranean prices increased 16% to $6,300/FEU, both well above last year’s peak season highs but level so far this week. The recent increases pushed Mediterranean rates to about the announced GRI or PSS levels, while Europe prices are about $1k/FEU beneath the target set by several carriers.

Planned July increases have some carriers aspiring for Asia – Europe rates $3k/FEU higher than current levels and Mediterranean prices $1-$2k/FEU higher, with increases announced across an array of secondary lanes as well.

The sharp June rate gains show that even as the global fleet continues to grow, significant increases in demand and shipper urgency – currently helped along by a fuel price-adjusted elevated starting point, Red Sea diversions, and peak season congestion causing delays and likewise effectively reducing capacity – are still enough to push spot prices to very elevated levels, at least for a while.

But with rates on some lanes already below aspired-to levels, and frontloading implying an early end to the fairly sudden demand boom, the question remains how much higher prices will climb and for how long.

As noted, jet fuel prices have eased since the prospects of a reopened Hormuz have increased. So far though, air cargo rates have stayed level, though down from earlier highs on most lanes, including for China, South Asia and Southeast Asia cargo flows to Europe. Prices to N. America have nonetheless trended upward, possibly buoyed by last chance Amazon Prime Day demand.

The European Union will suspend its de minimis exemption on July 1st. Though many observers expected last year’s US rule change to drive a transpacific e-commerce exodus from the air, the big e-comm platforms mostly adjusted tactics, preserving e-comm volumes as a still major – if not as colossal – driver of air demand. Most experts, therefore, don’t expect the EU rule change to trigger a sharp drop in e-comm flows or air rates.

But the change will make the EU, in comparison, suddenly much less attractive to cross-border e-comm sellers than the nearby UK market, which will only change its de minimis rules in 2029. This looming disparity has some in the UK warning of a coming flood of low cost goods starting in July, and urging the government to expedite the policy shift.

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Market Intelligence Is Becoming an Operating Capability

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The New Logistics Advantage — Part 7 of 9

Market intelligence has traditionally been treated as episodic. A company purchases a report during annual planning, commissions a study before entering a market, runs a customer survey when positioning needs to change, or calls an analyst when a major decision creates uncertainty.

That model works when markets move slowly and category boundaries are stable. It is less effective when AI compresses product cycles, adjacent software markets converge, customer expectations shift, and competitors redefine their positions continuously. In that environment, market intelligence begins to look less like a project and more like an operating capability: a repeatable system for turning external evidence into better decisions.

The Problem Is Not More Information

Most companies do not suffer from a shortage of information. They have analyst reports, customer conversations, sales notes, win-loss data, competitor announcements, product telemetry, conference observations, and an almost unlimited flow of public material.

The constraint is interpretation. Different sources answer different questions, arrive with different incentives, and operate at different levels of confidence. A competitor announcement can reveal direction but not adoption. A salesperson can surface customer objections but not necessarily represent the market. A market-size estimate can establish scale without explaining why buyers choose one approach over another. Market intelligence becomes valuable when the organization knows what decision it is trying to improve, what evidence would materially change that decision, and how contradictory signals will be resolved.

Different Strategic Questions Require Different Evidence

Four questions illustrate the point. What is happening in the market? A Standard Market Research Report provides structured analysis of market size, trends, technology, competitive dynamics, and the supplier landscape. It is appropriate when the question is broad, repeatable, and already covered by an established research framework.

What specifically do we need to know? A Custom Market Research Study is better suited to a unique strategic question: a market adjacency, technology assessment, competitive problem, growth hypothesis, or segmentation issue that generic research cannot resolve.

What do customers actually think? A Voice of the Customer Survey moves the evidence base toward direct buyer and customer input—priorities, satisfaction, perception, unmet needs, and decision criteria.

What does this mean for us over time? An Annual Contract Advisory Service creates continuity. Instead of treating every market question as a stand-alone event, the organization can maintain an external analytical perspective as conditions change.

These approaches are not substitutes. They answer different parts of the management problem: establish the market, test the specific hypothesis, hear the customer, and update the interpretation.

The Intelligence System Should Be Built Around Decisions

The most useful operating model is a cycle rather than a library. Establish a baseline. Define the decision. Identify the evidence gap. Gather the right evidence. Interpret what changed. Decide what action follows. Then update the baseline as new information arrives.

MarketMaps add another useful layer. The TMS, WMS, Autonomous Exception Management, and Decision Intelligence MarketMaps force a category to be defined against explicit dimensions and comparative evidence. Their value is not simply where a provider appears on a chart. It is the discipline of making the market structure visible.

For an operating company, that discipline improves technology selection. For a technology provider, it improves product and positioning decisions. In both cases, the point is to replace anecdote with an evidence hierarchy strong enough to support consequential choices.

Market Intelligence Should Be Allowed to Change the Strategy

The biggest failure mode is using research only to validate a story already chosen internally. If every study confirms the preferred conclusion, the process is functioning as marketing support rather than decision support.

High-quality intelligence should expose uncertainty, identify what is not known, and sometimes force a change in direction. A customer study may show that the feature executives consider differentiated is not important to buyers. A market analysis may reveal that the attractive growth rate belongs to an adjacency where the company lacks a credible right to win. Competitive research may show that a category is converging around a control point the current roadmap does not address.

That can be uncomfortable, but it is the economic value of external evidence. The purpose is not to make management feel informed. It is to reduce the probability of making a large decision on an obsolete or self-reinforcing view of the market.

The Executive Implication

In fast-changing technology markets, the scarce resource is not information. It is structured interpretation tied to a decision.

The strongest organizations build a cadence: establish the market baseline, test assumptions with customers, identify evidence gaps, commission targeted work where necessary, and maintain external interpretation as the market evolves. That turns intelligence into a management process rather than a periodic deliverable.

The test is simple: What changed? Why does it matter? What decision should change because of it? When an intelligence system can answer those questions consistently, research has become an operating capability.

Explore the Related Logistics Viewpoints Research

Standard Market Research Report Guide
Custom Market Research Study Guide
Voice of the Customer Survey Guide
Annual Contract Advisory Service
2026 TMS Market Map
2026 WMS Market Map
2026 Supply Chain Decision Intelligence Market Map
Logistics Viewpoints Research Library

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Freightos Global Outlook – October 2026

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This month’s Freightos Global Outlook market update webinar will take place on Wednesday October 14th at 10:00am ET.

We’ll take a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets, including:

Container trends – the extended transpac peak season, the elevated Asia – Europe rate floor, and Red Sea returns
Panama Canal restrictions
Trade war developments, post the Trump-Xi summit
Air cargo peak season projections.

Your Expert Host

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

The post Freightos Global Outlook – October 2026 appeared first on Freightos.

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The New Economics of Logistics Visibility

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Knowing that a shipment will arrive six hours late is information. Knowing it early enough to reschedule labor, protect a customer commitment, avoid detention, or change an inventory decision is economic value.

That distinction is becoming central to the logistics visibility market. The earlier argument that exceptions are becoming the real unit of work explains why visibility economics depend less on event volume than on whether the organization can convert important events into timely resolution.

The first era of visibility was largely about answering a basic question: Where is my shipment? The next era is about a harder question: What should I do because its state has changed?

Visibility Is Not the Outcome

Location and status data can be valuable, but they are intermediate products. A business does not earn a return because a dot moved across a map more accurately. The return appears when information changes an operational decision. A useful way to think about visibility is as a chain: signal -> interpretation -> decision -> intervention -> economic outcome. If any link is missing, much of the potential value disappears.

A Signal Has to Arrive Inside the Decision Window

Timing matters.

A delay discovered after the customer has already missed production is history. The same delay identified early enough to expedite an alternate shipment may be actionable. An ETA update received after warehouse labor has reported for a shift may have less value than the same update received while the schedule can still be changed.

This means visibility quality is not only about accuracy. It is about whether the signal arrives with enough lead time to support an intervention.

Not Every Exception Deserves Attention

As visibility improves, organizations often discover a new problem: too many exceptions. A network with thousands of shipments will always contain delays, deviations, missed scans, changing ETAs, and incomplete data. If every deviation creates an alert, planners become the bottleneck. The more important capability is prioritization.

Which late shipment threatens a high-value order? Which delay creates a stockout? Which container risks demurrage? Which arrival change will disrupt a dock schedule? Which event is likely to self-correct without intervention?

Visibility becomes intelligence when the system can distinguish operational consequence from mere deviation.

ETA Is a Decision Input

Estimated time of arrival is a good example of how the economics are changing. ETA was once primarily a customer-service or tracking metric. Increasingly it can influence warehouse scheduling, yard planning, labor, inventory, customer promises, and downstream transportation. That makes ETA a shared operating variable.

The value increases when the prediction is connected to the systems that can respond. A changing ETA that remains trapped in a visibility dashboard creates less value than one that can trigger a workflow or decision elsewhere.

Dwell, Detention, and Demurrage Make the Economics Visible

Some visibility use cases have direct financial consequences. Better awareness of arrival, dwell, free-time windows, and container status can help organizations manage detention and demurrage exposure. Yard visibility can reduce unnecessary trailer search and moves. Earlier exception detection can protect delivery appointments and reduce costly service recovery. These cases make an important point: visibility value is often realized outside the visibility platform itself.

More Visibility Can Increase Work

This is the uncomfortable side of digital transparency. If a company exposes ten times as many events but does not improve prioritization or workflow, it may create ten times as many things for people to inspect. The result can be an expensive monitoring layer sitting on top of the same manual decision process.

That is why visibility and autonomous exception management are converging. The system must increasingly help decide which events require action, assemble context, recommend a response, and automate routine resolution where appropriate.

Measure Intervention, Not Just Coverage

Visibility programs are often measured by tracking coverage, data completeness, ETA accuracy, or number of connected carriers. Those are necessary operating metrics, but they do not fully describe business value.

Organizations should also ask: How many material exceptions were identified early enough to act? How quickly were they resolved? How often did intervention protect service or avoid cost? How many alerts required no useful action? How much planner time was consumed per exception?

Those measures connect visibility to economics.

The Market Is Moving Toward Action

This shift has strategic implications for technology providers. Pure visibility is becoming less differentiated as location and event data become more widely available. The higher-value layer is interpretation and action: understanding what an event means to a specific operation and helping execute the appropriate response.

That pushes visibility platforms toward orchestration, workflow, decision intelligence, and AI. It also pushes TMS, WMS, and other execution systems toward richer external event awareness.

The Bottleneck Moves

For years, logistics organizations complained that they could not make better decisions because they could not see what was happening. Increasingly, they can see more.

The bottleneck is moving.

When a network can identify exceptions continuously, the constraint becomes the speed and quality with which the organization can interpret and resolve them. That is precisely the environment in which AI agents become interesting—not because logistics needs another conversational interface, but because it needs more capacity to do operational work.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Autonomous Exception Management Market Map
The Economics of Decision Latency
Previous in this series: Transportation Is Becoming Computational

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If your organization is assessing connected execution, orchestration, AI, observability, decision velocity, or selective autonomy, I would be glad to provide the complete client edition and discuss the implications for your logistics operating model and technology architecture.

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