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Ocean rates level, but mid-month increases possible soon – June 16, 2026 Update
Published
3 mois agoon
By
Weekly highlights
Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) stayed level.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4%.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 1%.
Air rates – Freightos Air Index
China – N. America weekly prices stayed level.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 3%.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 2%.
Analysis
The US and Iran are set to sign an interim peace deal at the end of the week which will include an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, possibly within thirty days, and will start the clock on a sixty-day window to arrive at a final deal. As the sides haven’t released the text of the agreement, there is significant uncertainty around the Memorandum of Understanding’s details and timeline for the reopening.
The war’s broadest impact on freight markets has been via upward pressure on fuel prices. The reopening could mean some near term easing of fuel costs for carriers. President Trump asserts that the Strait will be fully open by the time of the signing, but even if both blockades are lifted then, the consensus is that a full return of traffic will likely take months as the narrow passage is further narrowed by Iranian mines. It will take time to de-mine the waterway, with some countries who have committed to the de-mining process hesitant to join the effort until a final peace deal is in place, meaning ships will have to rely on the few established safe lanes in the interim.
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Experts estimate it will take several weeks for daily transits to recover to half of the pre-war norm, and much longer, possibly six months, for oil flows to normalize. In addition to out of place tankers and damage to infrastructure, even once vessels exit, it takes about seven weeks for crude to arrive in the Far East, with an even longer timeline for availability of refined products like bunker and jet fuel first dependent on those crude shipments arriving. The fact that many countries will seek to prioritize replenishing strategic reserves could likewise mean a commercial supply rebound will take time and that downward pressure on oil prices and on fuel costs will be gradual.
For the container market, near-term easing fuel costs would reduce some of the upward pressure on rates that have kept prices higher year on year since the start of the war. But while reduced Emergency Fuel Surcharges will be relevant for spot shipments, large shippers with annual contracts will still be paying higher rates via Q3 BAFs even as fuel costs decline.
Once fuel prices do normalize though, we could expect freight rates to pick up where they left off before the war: downward pressure on prices from a growing fleet. And if the peace deal hastens a broad carrier return to the Red Sea, that downward pressure will be even stronger.
Given this drawn out timeline for oil and fuel recovery however, this easing will come too late to make much of a difference for container rates this peak season. And in any case, spiking container rates at the moment are mostly being driven by peak season demand, not oil prices.
Spot prices on the major lanes were level last week, maintaining the sharp – $1k/FEU or more – GRI and PSS increases that carriers introduced to start the month. Reports that vessels are fully booked through the end of the month and that carriers are rolling containers and reducing allocations make it likely that mid-month increases will take too, with Asia – Europe daily rates already climbing about 10% this week.
Carriers have announced mid-month increases ranging from $1,000/FEU to $2,000/FEU above current levels for Asia – Europe lanes, with additional increases as much as $2,000/FEU higher than anticipated mid-June levels planned for the start of July. Likewise, CMA CGM has reportedly announced a $4,000/FEU PSS for all transpacific containers starting July 10th. And as carriers shift capacity to these lanes where demand is surging, rates are climbing on secondary lanes as vessels are moved away.
The early start to peak season – driven partially by frontloading ahead of BAF increases, tariffs, and coming manufacturer price hikes – has some observers expecting bookings to peak in June, which could mean carriers will find more resistance to July rate increases than they have to June price hikes so far.
Air cargo capacity and volumes continue to recover from the sharp March war-related deficit, with reports that Gulf carriers have restored capacity to about 70% of pre-war levels. But the remaining 30% gap, as well as non-Gulf carriers still mostly avoiding the Middle East, mean that the industry hasn’t normalized yet.
In addition to the lingering capacity slump, elevated jet fuel prices are also contributing to air cargo rates that continue to face upward pressure. Jet fuel prices are about 40% above pre-war levels though they have come down by about 35% from the war-period high reached in April, and some carriers are reducing Emergency Fuel Surcharges as a result.
The Freightos Air Index global benchmark closed last week level with the past two weeks and down 10% from its year high set in May, but still 30% higher year on year and relative to just before the war. Rates on the major lanes are showing similar trends.
China – N. America rates were level at $6.20/kg last week, a price 15% down from a peak in March but 17% higher year on year. China – Europe rates ticked up 3% to $4.62/kg, down 12% from their wartime peak, but still 30% higher than late February and 21% higher than last year. S. Asia prices are at about $4.50/kg to Europe and $3.17/kg to the Middle East, with Europe rates down 12% from their peak but up 50% year on year and Middle East prices 70% higher than a year ago but down 25% from their peak as Gulf capacity recovers.
The post Ocean rates level, but mid-month increases possible soon – June 16, 2026 Update appeared first on Freightos.
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This month’s Freightos Global Outlook market update webinar will take place on Wednesday October 14th at 10:00am ET.
We’ll take a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets, including:
Container trends – the extended transpac peak season, the elevated Asia – Europe rate floor, and Red Sea returns
Panama Canal restrictions
Trade war developments, post the Trump-Xi summit
Air cargo peak season projections.
Your Expert Host
Judah Levine
Head of Research, Freightos Group
Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.
The post Freightos Global Outlook – October 2026 appeared first on Freightos.
Knowing that a shipment will arrive six hours late is information. Knowing it early enough to reschedule labor, protect a customer commitment, avoid detention, or change an inventory decision is economic value.
That distinction is becoming central to the logistics visibility market. The earlier argument that exceptions are becoming the real unit of work explains why visibility economics depend less on event volume than on whether the organization can convert important events into timely resolution.
The first era of visibility was largely about answering a basic question: Where is my shipment? The next era is about a harder question: What should I do because its state has changed?
Visibility Is Not the Outcome
Location and status data can be valuable, but they are intermediate products. A business does not earn a return because a dot moved across a map more accurately. The return appears when information changes an operational decision. A useful way to think about visibility is as a chain: signal -> interpretation -> decision -> intervention -> economic outcome. If any link is missing, much of the potential value disappears.
A Signal Has to Arrive Inside the Decision Window
Timing matters.
A delay discovered after the customer has already missed production is history. The same delay identified early enough to expedite an alternate shipment may be actionable. An ETA update received after warehouse labor has reported for a shift may have less value than the same update received while the schedule can still be changed.
This means visibility quality is not only about accuracy. It is about whether the signal arrives with enough lead time to support an intervention.
Not Every Exception Deserves Attention
As visibility improves, organizations often discover a new problem: too many exceptions. A network with thousands of shipments will always contain delays, deviations, missed scans, changing ETAs, and incomplete data. If every deviation creates an alert, planners become the bottleneck. The more important capability is prioritization.
Which late shipment threatens a high-value order? Which delay creates a stockout? Which container risks demurrage? Which arrival change will disrupt a dock schedule? Which event is likely to self-correct without intervention?
Visibility becomes intelligence when the system can distinguish operational consequence from mere deviation.
ETA Is a Decision Input
Estimated time of arrival is a good example of how the economics are changing. ETA was once primarily a customer-service or tracking metric. Increasingly it can influence warehouse scheduling, yard planning, labor, inventory, customer promises, and downstream transportation. That makes ETA a shared operating variable.
The value increases when the prediction is connected to the systems that can respond. A changing ETA that remains trapped in a visibility dashboard creates less value than one that can trigger a workflow or decision elsewhere.
Dwell, Detention, and Demurrage Make the Economics Visible
Some visibility use cases have direct financial consequences. Better awareness of arrival, dwell, free-time windows, and container status can help organizations manage detention and demurrage exposure. Yard visibility can reduce unnecessary trailer search and moves. Earlier exception detection can protect delivery appointments and reduce costly service recovery. These cases make an important point: visibility value is often realized outside the visibility platform itself.
More Visibility Can Increase Work
This is the uncomfortable side of digital transparency. If a company exposes ten times as many events but does not improve prioritization or workflow, it may create ten times as many things for people to inspect. The result can be an expensive monitoring layer sitting on top of the same manual decision process.
That is why visibility and autonomous exception management are converging. The system must increasingly help decide which events require action, assemble context, recommend a response, and automate routine resolution where appropriate.
Measure Intervention, Not Just Coverage
Visibility programs are often measured by tracking coverage, data completeness, ETA accuracy, or number of connected carriers. Those are necessary operating metrics, but they do not fully describe business value.
Organizations should also ask: How many material exceptions were identified early enough to act? How quickly were they resolved? How often did intervention protect service or avoid cost? How many alerts required no useful action? How much planner time was consumed per exception?
Those measures connect visibility to economics.
The Market Is Moving Toward Action
This shift has strategic implications for technology providers. Pure visibility is becoming less differentiated as location and event data become more widely available. The higher-value layer is interpretation and action: understanding what an event means to a specific operation and helping execute the appropriate response.
That pushes visibility platforms toward orchestration, workflow, decision intelligence, and AI. It also pushes TMS, WMS, and other execution systems toward richer external event awareness.
The Bottleneck Moves
For years, logistics organizations complained that they could not make better decisions because they could not see what was happening. Increasingly, they can see more.
The bottleneck is moving.
When a network can identify exceptions continuously, the constraint becomes the speed and quality with which the organization can interpret and resolve them. That is precisely the environment in which AI agents become interesting—not because logistics needs another conversational interface, but because it needs more capacity to do operational work.
Related Logistics Viewpoints research
The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Autonomous Exception Management Market Map
The Economics of Decision Latency
Previous in this series: Transportation Is Becoming Computational
Request The New Architecture of Logistics Client Edition
If your organization is assessing connected execution, orchestration, AI, observability, decision velocity, or selective autonomy, I would be glad to provide the complete client edition and discuss the implications for your logistics operating model and technology architecture.
The post The New Economics of Logistics Visibility appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.
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o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions
Published
18 heures agoon
5 octobre 2026By
Supply chain decision-making is difficult partly because the relevant information is distributed across products, locations, suppliers, orders, capacities, policies, and external events. A system may have access to all of those records and still struggle to understand the relationships among them quickly enough to support a consequential decision.
o9 Solutions addresses that problem through its Digital Brain architecture, including an enterprise knowledge graph and in-memory modeling designed to connect demand, supply, inventory, planning, and operating context. That semantic layer is important because it gives analytics and AI a structured representation of how supply chain entities relate to one another rather than treating the environment as a collection of independent tables and documents.
The company combines this architecture with integrated planning, optimization, scenario modeling, machine learning, and human oversight. The strategic direction is toward a continuous decision environment where changes can be interpreted quickly, alternatives can be modeled, and recommendations can be traced back to the assumptions, events, and constraints that produced them.
As with any broad planning and intelligence platform, the value depends on implementation quality. Knowledge models need strong data governance, entity resolution, process ownership, and clear decision rights. A sophisticated model of the supply chain is useful only if the organization can keep it current and use it consistently in real operating workflows.
o9 Solutions appears in the Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The two MarketMaps highlight the relationship between integrated decision intelligence and the faster exception-response capabilities now developing around it.
The post o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.
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