Weekly highlights
Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 2%.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 10%.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) increased 7%.
Air rates – Freightos Air Index
China – N. America weekly prices decreased 14%.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 5%.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 1%.
Analysis
A newly-launched US operation to facilitate vessel transits out of the Gulf is leading to increased tension and some renewal of fighting in the Middle East.
US support, including by navy vessels, succeeded in getting two US-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz early this week, but Iranian attacks on both the commercial and naval vessels, the US response which sank several Iranian boats, and Iranian missile and drone strikes on the UAE mark firsts since the current ceasefire took effect nearly a month ago, and increase the risk of a ceasefire collapse.
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The US operation in its current form will not likely be able to fully reopen the Strait, and so would face difficulties in meaningfully increasing global oil supply. For the container and air cargo markets then, the current developments do not change much.
For ocean freight, the closure continues to put carriers under cost pressure from elevated bunker prices, though so far actual fuel shortages are minimal. Ocean supply-demand dynamics during the typically slow months, however, are limiting the impact that carriers’ Emergency Fuel Surcharges and other planned increases are having on spot rates.
Transpacific container rates ticked up 2% to the West Coast and climbed 10% to the East Coast last week, for a gradual increase of about $1,000/FEU – a 50% gain – since the start of the war. These increases are significant, especially as they are sticking during a low demand stretch, but are still not much different than levels seen in the lead up to Lunar New Year before the war, are nowhere near levels hit due to other recent crises, and are mostly below levels targeted by GRIs.
Asia – Europe rates have slid back to about pre-war levels, with N. Europe prices now just $100/FEU higher than late February, and Mediterranean prices just below their pre-war level. Asia – Mediterranean rates increased 7% last week, but daily prices this week are already trending down, erasing those gains and reflecting the difficulty carriers face in getting rate increases to take, especially on these lanes.
There are signs that manufacturing activity is slowing in some Far East countries as a result of higher input costs and supply constraint due to the war, which could impact peak season volumes. And some noted shifts in US consumer spending choices may also have ramifications for container levels in the coming months.
In another touchpoint between the war and trade, the success of the Trump-Xi summit set for mid-month in Beijing and aimed at stabilizing trade relations, may also be facing additional hurdles due to the war, as China has pushed back against new US sanctions related to Iranian oil.
Air cargo markets have, like ocean, continued their trends seen in recent weeks. Elevated fuel prices together with gradual capacity recoveries and continued shifts of flights to lanes with increased volumes due to the war, have meant elevated, but mostly past their peak, rate levels.
The Freightos Air Index global benchmark is 25% higher than before the war, but down 5% month on month. And while China – US rates of $5.48/kg are down 7% compared to late February, most other major lanes remain significantly above pre-war marks, but even or down from peaks reached mostly in mid-April.
South East Asia – Europe rates ticked back up to about level with their April highs of $5.40/kg last, while S. Asia – Europe prices of $4.60/kg are down 10% from their high a few weeks ago, and SEA – N. America prices are down 9% from their peak to $6.41/kg. ed 9% to $5.24/kg, though remain a little below its year high of $5.30/kg hit earlier this month.
