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Transpac ocean rates continue to edge up on Iran pressure – April 28, 2026 Update

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Transpac ocean rates continue to edge up on Iran pressure – April 28, 2026 Update

Published: April 28, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 1%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 3%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices stayed level.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 1%.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 1%.

Analysis

Increased fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to keep container rates elevated during the post-Lunar New Year, pre-peak season, low demand season for ocean freight when prices normally reach their floor for the year.

Even with this pressure however, rates are well below spikes caused by recent disruptions like the Red Sea crisis and trade war frontloading.

Asia – Europe rates eased 3% last week to both N. Europe and the Mediterranean. Though prices on both lanes climbed by several hundred dollars in the first weeks of the war, N. Europe rates of $2,668/FEU are just 8% higher than before the war and Mediterranean prices at $3,527/FEU are 3% lower than in late February. Maersk recently cancelled an upcoming Asia – Europe GRI, and carriers have started to announce more blanked sailings.

War-related rate increase attempts have not succeeded in keeping prices on these lanes much above their pre-war baselines, but upward pressure from the conflict is likely keeping rates higher than they otherwise would be. Asia – Europe rates are more than 15% higher year on year for both lanes, and more than 50% above rate levels in October, the other most recent low-demand period.

On the transpacific carriers have had more success steadily pushing rates up and preventing backsliding since late February. Prices ticked up slightly for both coasts last week, with West Coast rates of $2,675/FEU up 45% compared to the start of the war and almost 90% higher than post-peak season levels back in October. East Coast prices at just below $4,000/FEU are 30% higher compared to just before the war, and 30% above the previous low-demand stretch in October.

Nonetheless, even with these increases, the low demand and high capacity environment – and possibly the moderate easing of oil and bunker rates compared to earlier highs since the start of the war in Iran – has not allowed rates to rise to the full announced GRI or various surcharge levels.

The next significant rate increase across these lanes could come with the start of peak season in June or July, though some observers warn that war-related rising costs for consumers could dampen shipper expectations and depress peak season volumes.

Containers continue to move to and from the Gulf states via the alternative routes developed since the Strait of Hormuz closure. But even with significantly lower volumes booked, the network is straining, with Maersk reporting that Gulf export containers are facing particular challenges. Even as import containers also face delays and high costs, Gemini is increasing capacity to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Port.

In air cargo, more carriers have recently announced jet fuel cost-driven flight cancellations. In addition to Lufthansa scrapping its domestic Europe short-haul CityLine service – eliminating 20k flights through October – KLM will cancel some domestic flights, though both carriers say the cancellations represent a very small share of their overall network. United Airlines is rolling out a market disruption fee for cargo bookings.

Jet fuel supply is already getting tight in Southeast Asia, with K+N reporting it is adding fueling stops in China where supply is so far unconstrained before transiting to SEA countries. European Union officials recently met to discuss the looming prospect of jet fuel shortages, and may be considering a jet fuel sharing plan if supply gets really tight.

Despite these cancellations though, overall global air cargo capacity that had dropped sharply in March may now be at only a single digit deficit compared to before the war as Middle East carriers continue to rebound. Other global carriers have also shifted capacity to follow the war-driven shift in volumes to alternative Asia – Europe and other lanes.

These capacity additions, as well as moderate recent decreases in jet fuel prices may be contributing to the continued leveling off of rates on major lanes. The Freightos Air Index global benchmark remains 30% higher than before the war and year-on-year, but has been about level since the start of the month.

China – Europe rates at $5.07/kg and China – N. America prices of $6.40/kg both dipped slightly last week, with S. Asia – Europe rates also down 1% to $4.94/kg. SEA – Europe rates meanwhile climbed 9% to $5.24/kg, though remain a little below its year high of $5.30/kg hit earlier this month.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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DHL and the Reality of End-to-End Logistics Integration

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DHL shows how far end-to-end logistics integration has advanced and why the next stage depends on tighter coordination across networks, systems, and operating models.

End-to-end integration has become one of the defining ambitions in logistics. The premise is straightforward: connect transportation, warehousing, customs, and last-mile delivery into a more coordinated system.

DHL is one of the few companies with the scale to push that ambition forward. Its structure spans Express, Global Forwarding, Supply Chain, eCommerce, and Post & Parcel operations. With a global footprint across nearly every major logistics segment, DHL has both the scope and operating base to make integration real.

That makes DHL a useful case study. It shows both the progress already made and the practical work still required.

Integration Is Becoming an Operating Advantage

Each DHL division solves a different logistics problem.

Express prioritizes time-definite delivery and network precision

Global Forwarding manages complex international freight flows

Supply Chain supports customer-specific contract logistics

eCommerce and parcel focus on high-volume delivery efficiency

The opportunity is not to make all of these models identical. It is to coordinate them more effectively.

That is where integration creates value: better handoffs, better visibility, fewer delays, and more consistent customer execution.

For shippers, the benefit is practical. A more integrated logistics provider can reduce the number of failure points across the flow of goods. It can connect international freight movement with warehousing and final distribution. It can help customers understand not only where inventory is, but how that inventory should move next.

That is the difference between a logistics vendor and a logistics operating partner.

Visibility Has Created the Foundation

DHL and the broader logistics industry have made major gains in visibility. Shipment tracking, milestone management, and customer-facing dashboards are now standard.

The industry has largely improved the answer to:

Where is the shipment?

The next step is improving the answer to:

What should happen next?

That is the real integration frontier.

Visibility matters because it creates the shared operating picture. But value is created when that visibility improves decisions. If a shipment is delayed, the customer does not only need an alert. The customer needs options: reroute, expedite, reposition inventory, shift labor, or adjust downstream commitments.

This is where integrated logistics becomes more than reporting. It becomes response capability.

Contract Logistics Is the Operational Glue

DHL Supply Chain is especially important in this model because contract logistics often sits closest to the customer’s physical operation.

Warehouses, fulfillment centers, returns operations, spare parts networks, and value-added services are where logistics plans become operational reality. This is also where many supply chain exceptions are resolved or escalated.

A warehouse may need to adjust labor plans because inbound containers are late. A fulfillment site may need to prioritize certain orders because transportation capacity is constrained. A returns operation may affect available inventory for resale or refurbishment.

These are not abstract planning problems. They are execution problems.

DHL’s contract logistics footprint gives the company a critical role in connecting transportation events to facility-level decisions. That is one reason end-to-end integration cannot be evaluated only through freight movement. Warehousing and fulfillment are central to whether the integrated model actually works.

Coordination Is the Next Layer

Consider a delayed ocean shipment feeding a manufacturing plant. The best response may involve alternate routing, air freight, inventory reallocation, or production schedule changes.

Those actions require coordination across forwarding, warehousing, transportation, and customer operations.

DHL’s breadth gives it an advantage because it participates across many of those nodes. The more tightly those nodes are connected, the more value the customer receives.

But coordination is not automatic. It requires consistent data, defined escalation paths, and clear decision rights. The customer needs to know who owns the decision, what options are available, and what trade-offs are involved.

This is where mature logistics integration creates value. It does not eliminate disruption. It improves the quality and speed of response.

AI Can Strengthen the Model

AI can help logistics networks move from visibility to action. It can prioritize exceptions, predict delays, recommend routing options, and improve capacity planning.

But the strongest AI use cases depend on good operating structure. Data, process, and decision rights still matter.

DHL’s opportunity is not simply to add AI to logistics. It is to use AI to make an already broad operating network more responsive and coordinated.

AI is most useful when it is pointed at specific operational problems: identifying shipments most likely to miss delivery windows, recommending alternate routings, forecasting capacity pressure, or prioritizing exceptions based on customer impact.

That is where integration and AI reinforce each other. Integration creates the connected operating model. AI helps that model respond faster.

A Practical Definition of Integration

End-to-end logistics integration is not a single switch that gets turned on. It develops in layers.

Strategic customers can receive more integrated service

High-value flows can be actively coordinated

High-risk lanes can be managed with better exception response

Standardized data can improve handoffs across functions

That is how integration becomes operational rather than theoretical.

DHL’s model shows that the industry is moving in the right direction. The next stage is not about promising seamless logistics everywhere. It is about building tighter coordination where it matters most.

That is a serious opportunity.

The companies that benefit most will not be those that simply buy more logistics services. They will be the companies that design logistics networks around coordination: transportation linked to warehousing, visibility linked to action, and exception management linked to decision rights.

DHL’s role in this transition is significant because it has the operating breadth to connect those layers. The real test is not whether end-to-end integration can be described. It is whether it can improve service, resilience, and execution when the network is under pressure.

That is where integration becomes an advantage.

The post DHL and the Reality of End-to-End Logistics Integration appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Shipping Alliances Are Reshaping Global Supply Chain Capacity

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Ocean carrier alliances are not just carrier strategy. They shape capacity, service reliability, routing options, blank sailings, and the negotiating position of global shippers.

For many shippers, ocean freight still looks like a carrier procurement problem.

The annual bid goes out. Rates come back. Carriers are compared by lane, service, reliability, and price. Volumes are allocated. Contracts are signed.

That process still matters. But it no longer captures the full structure of the market.

A shipper may think it has diversified its ocean carrier base. In practice, several of those carriers may be operating inside the same alliance structure, sharing vessels, using similar service strings, calling the same ports, or withdrawing capacity in similar ways. The contract may show multiple carrier names. The network may be less diversified than it appears.

That is why shipping alliances have become one of the most important structural forces in global supply chains. They do not just determine who cooperates with whom. They influence capacity, service frequency, port calls, blank sailings, transit times, routing options, and the negotiating position of global shippers.

The issue is no longer just carrier selection. It is network exposure.

Capacity Is Being Managed Lane by Lane

Ocean shipping has always been cyclical. Rates rise, new capacity enters, demand softens, and carriers adjust. But alliances change the mechanics of adjustment.

They give carriers more ways to share vessels, redesign networks, reduce effective capacity, and protect utilization. That can improve network coverage and cost efficiency. It can also make the real capacity picture harder for shippers to read.

Recent market data shows the problem. Spot rates eased in some areas in late April 2026, with Drewry’s World Container Index slipping to $2,232 per 40-foot container. But the rate picture was not uniform. Asia-Europe and Mediterranean lanes weakened, while Transpacific and Transatlantic rates moved higher. Drewry also reported roughly 54 blank sailings expected over a five-week period from late April through late May, out of 689 scheduled departures.

That is the practical reality. Global capacity is not a single market. It is being managed lane by lane.

For a shipper, that means the headline rate environment may be misleading. A global index may say rates are softening. A specific port pair may still be tight. A global fleet number may look adequate. A specific service string may be unreliable.

Capacity is increasingly a network question, not just a fleet-size question.

The Alliance Structure Is Changing

The breakup of the 2M alliance between Maersk and MSC marked a major shift in ocean shipping structure.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have moved forward with the Gemini Cooperation, a shared ocean network that began operations in February 2025. The network is being phased in around hundreds of vessels and is positioned around reliability, flexibility, and a more interconnected operating model. Hapag-Lloyd has stated an ambition for schedule reliability above 90 percent once the network is fully phased in.

MSC has taken a more independent path. The Premier Alliance emerged from the restructuring of THE Alliance, with ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming continuing under the new structure. The Ocean Alliance remains another major force across east-west trades.

Those changes are more than industry reshuffling. They alter the operating map that shippers depend on.

Carriers are reorganizing networks around control, utilization, reliability claims, and cost efficiency. The promised benefit is service quality. The risk is reduced optionality.

A shipper may technically have several carrier contracts. But if those carriers depend on the same shared vessels, alliance loops, transshipment hubs, or service strings, the shipper’s real redundancy may be limited.

Carrier diversification is not the same as network diversification.

That distinction matters now.

Blank Sailings Turn Strategy into Operational Risk

Blank sailings are where carrier strategy becomes a shipper’s operating problem.

They are not new. They are part of container shipping. Carriers cancel sailings to match supply with demand, protect utilization, and stabilize pricing. But when blank sailings occur within alliance networks, the impact can quickly spread across lane capacity, port coverage, and weekly shipping cadence.

For carriers, a blank sailing may be capacity discipline.

For shippers, it can be a missed production window, a delayed purchase order, a longer inventory cycle, or a service failure downstream.

Drewry’s late-April tracker showed an 8 percent cancellation rate across major east-west trades for the five-week period it measured. The cancellations were not evenly distributed. They were concentrated most heavily on the Transpacific eastbound trade, followed by Asia-Europe and Mediterranean lanes, with the Transatlantic less affected.

That unevenness is the point. A shipper does not experience “the ocean market.” It experiences specific lanes, origins, destinations, ports, and service strings.

When a sailing is removed, the cost is not always visible in the freight invoice. It may appear as extra safety stock, premium freight, warehouse labor imbalance, late customer orders, or weaker planning confidence.

Transportation variability becomes inventory policy. When it is ignored, the cost simply moves somewhere else.

The Procurement Question Has Changed

The old ocean procurement question was straightforward: which carrier has the best rate for the lane?

That question is still relevant. It is just incomplete.

The better question is: what network am I actually buying?

That requires shippers to look below the carrier name. Which alliance or cooperation supports the service? Which vessels are shared? Which ports are direct calls? Which lanes require transshipment? Which loops are most exposed to blank sailings? Which alternative routings are truly independent?

This is where procurement, transportation, planning, and risk management need to work from the same view of the network.

A low-rate carrier allocation may look attractive in a spreadsheet. But if it concentrates volume on a fragile service string, the cost may reappear in inventory, customer service, or expedite spending.

The cheapest contract is not always the lowest-cost network.

What Shippers Should Do

Shippers should treat alliance changes as a network risk issue, not just a procurement update.

That starts with mapping carrier contracts to actual vessel-sharing networks. If three contracted carriers are using the same alliance service, the shipper may have less redundancy than assumed.

Shippers should also track port-pair reliability, not only carrier-level reliability. The operational question is not whether a carrier is generally reliable. It is whether the specific origin, destination, transshipment point, and service string are reliable for the shipper’s business.

Inventory assumptions should be revisited on lanes exposed to frequent blank sailings or transshipment changes. Safety stock, reorder timing, and service commitments should reflect transportation reality, not just planned transit time.

Finally, shippers should preserve optionality where it matters most. That does not mean spreading volume thinly across every carrier. It means identifying critical lanes where network redundancy is worth paying for.

Final Thought

Shipping alliances are reshaping global supply chain capacity because they change how capacity is deployed, withdrawn, and prioritized.

For carriers, alliances are a way to manage cost, network coverage, utilization, and reliability.

For shippers, they are a structural variable that must be understood with precision.

The market is no longer defined only by vessels, rates, and carrier names. It is defined by network control.

That is where ocean freight strategy is moving. The companies that understand the network behind the contract will be better positioned than those still buying ocean freight as if capacity were simple, visible, and interchangeable.

The post Shipping Alliances Are Reshaping Global Supply Chain Capacity appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Procter & Gamble and the Discipline of Demand Signals in Global Supply Chains

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P&G’s supply chain strength is not simply scale. It is the discipline of converting demand signals into operating decisions across products, regions, retailers, suppliers, and production networks.

Procter & Gamble is usually viewed as a consumer products company. For supply chain leaders, it is also a case study in demand discipline.

P&G operates in categories that look stable from a distance but are difficult in practice. Laundry detergent, diapers, grooming products, oral care, paper products, and beauty items move through enormous retail networks. Demand is broad, repetitive, and global. But the operating reality is far from simple.

Promotions shift buying patterns. Retail execution affects shelf availability. Inflation changes consumer trade-down behavior. Weather, channel mix, regional preferences, and retailer inventory policies all distort the signal.

That is why P&G is useful. Its supply chain advantage does not come from forecasting alone. It comes from how demand signals are translated into production, inventory, replenishment, and retailer collaboration.

P&G has been explicit about this operating logic. The company has described investments in advanced supply planning technologies designed to better anticipate consumer demand and adjust production and inventory levels accordingly. The stated aim is practical: reduce out-of-stocks, overproduction, and waste. It has also emphasized unified digital platforms that improve collaboration across retailers and suppliers through real-time information sharing and decision-making.

That is the right framing. A better forecast has limited value if the operating model cannot respond.

Demand Signals Are Not Forecasts

Many companies still treat demand sensing as a more sophisticated forecast. That is too narrow.

A forecast is a planning artifact. A demand signal is an operating input. The distinction matters.

A forecast may show that a product family is expected to grow in a given region. A demand signal may show that a specific retailer, pack size, geography, or channel is diverging from plan. It may reflect pricing action, promotion timing, competitor availability, channel shift, or inventory distortion downstream.

The supply chain challenge is not just detecting the signal. It is deciding whether the signal is real, whether it is temporary, and what action it should trigger.

Should production be adjusted? Should inventory be rebalanced? Should replenishment priorities change? Should procurement alter material coverage? Should a retailer receive a different allocation plan?

Those are not analytics questions. They are operating questions.

The Retail Shelf Is the Test

Consumer products supply chains ultimately get measured at the shelf. Service level, availability, working capital, and waste all converge there.

A manufacturer can have a sophisticated planning system and still fail if the connection to retail execution is weak. Consumer demand is often filtered through retailer inventory policies, order cycles, promotion calendars, and point-of-sale variability.

What looks like demand volatility may be a replenishment artifact. What looks like weak demand may be an availability issue. What looks like a supply constraint may be a poor allocation decision.

P&G’s scale makes this harder, not easier. The company operates across a broad brand portfolio, global geographies, and multiple retail formats. It must coordinate demand, supply, retailer collaboration, manufacturing, and inventory across a very large operating footprint.

At that scale, small improvements in demand translation matter. Better signals can reduce stockouts. Better replenishment decisions can protect shelf availability. Better production adjustments can prevent excess inventory. Better retailer collaboration can reduce the bullwhip effect.

The discipline is not in seeing more data. It is in deciding which data deserves action.

Why This Is Harder Now

Demand planning has become more difficult because consumer behavior is less forgiving.

Inflation has made households more price-sensitive. Channel mix continues to shift across stores, e-commerce, club, dollar, grocery, mass retail, and direct models. Promotions have become more consequential. Retailers are more aggressive about inventory productivity. Geopolitical risk, tariffs, and logistics disruptions add another layer of uncertainty to cost and availability.

Large consumer products companies once had more room to rely on scale, history, and statistical smoothing. That cushion is thinner now.

History still matters. But history is no longer sufficient.

Demand signals must now be interpreted through a more complex operating environment. A change in sell-through may reflect real consumer demand. It may also reflect a promotion, a retail inventory correction, a channel shift, a price gap, or a service issue.

The planning system may see movement. The business still has to understand what caused it.

The Lesson for Supply Chain Leaders

The P&G lesson is not that every company needs a P&G-sized technology stack. Most do not.

The lesson is more fundamental: demand signals need an operating path.

First, demand data must be connected to supply planning. If the signal does not change production, capacity, inventory, allocation, or replenishment decisions, it is only reporting.

Second, demand data must be interpreted through channel and customer context. A retailer order is not always a clean expression of consumer demand.

Third, demand sensing must be tied to exception management. Planners should not be flooded with noise. They need ranked exceptions, recommended actions, and clear thresholds.

Fourth, demand planning must be integrated with execution. The value is not in knowing what may happen. The value is in changing what the supply chain does before the cost shows up.

P&G’s emphasis on supply planning technology, real-time information sharing, and retailer/supplier collaboration points to the larger requirement. Demand sensing is not a standalone capability. It is part of a closed operating loop.

Summing Up

P&G’s supply chain strength is not just that it has more data. Many companies already have more data than they can use.

The strength is in translating demand signals into decisions across a large, complex, global operating system.

That is where many planning and AI initiatives still fall short. They improve the forecast but leave the operating model unchanged. They detect the signal but do not create the response.

Demand sensing is not the destination. It is the beginning of a decision process.

The companies that win will not simply forecast better. They will sense earlier, decide faster, and execute with more discipline.

The post Procter & Gamble and the Discipline of Demand Signals in Global Supply Chains appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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