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Transpac ocean rates slide early; Carrier revenue slipping as fleet grows – February 10, 2026 Update

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Transpac ocean rates slide early; Carrier revenue slipping as fleet grows – February 10, 2026 Update

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Published: February 10, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 21% to $1,916/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 10% to $3,457/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 8% to $2,548/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) decreased 9% to $3,784/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 9% to $7.32/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 3% to $3.33/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 1% to $2.56/kg.

Analysis

The transpacific container market is firmly post the pre-Lunar New Year rush this year, with reports that demand increase that did materialize was muted. And while ocean rates typically ease as the holiday approaches, they normally remain elevated relative to levels before the rush until after the post-holiday backlog is cleared.

This year, however, Asia – US West Coast rates that slipped more than 20% last week to about $1,900/FEU are all the way back to early December levels, suggesting that prices are already entering the post-LNY, pre-peak season lull. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import report projects March volumes will dip 5% month-on-month, with Q1 demand expected to be down 7% year on year as retailers exercise caution and as totals are compared to volumes frontloaded in Q1 last year.

US container ports and air hubs have mostly recovered from the recent winter storm, though backlogs at inland rail terminals continue to cause delays for shippers. Bad weather in Europe closed ports in the Western Mediterranean and disrupted transits in the Bay of Biscay for a second time towards the end of last week. As conditions have improved this week operations and transits have resumed, though carriers warn of congestion and delays due to disrupted schedules.

Despite the congestion, easing pre-LNY demand means cooling rates on these lanes as well, with Asia – N. Europe and Mediterranean prices both down more than 8% last week, and daily rates so far this week slipping further to $2,700/FEU to Europe and $3,700/FEU to the Med. Though prices to Europe are about down to pre-LNY rush levels, those December rates were supported by strict capacity reduction, and expectations for a post-LNY bump on these lanes are reflected in GRIs of several hundred dollars per FEU planned for March.

Record global container volumes last year weren’t enough to keep carrier revenue growing as the global fleet continues to expand – likely a sign of things to come. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk both reported drops in earnings last year, with Maersk among carriers reporting losses for the first time in a long time in Q4 despite volume growth. And as a clear indication of the current uncertainty in the market, even with projections for demand growth again this year, Maersk forecasts either a profit or loss of around $1B for 2026, mostly hinging on whether or not container traffic returns to the Red Sea.

In trade war developments, President Trump signed executive orders codifying tariff reductions for India, and empowering the departments of commerce and state with the discretion to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran or selling oil to Cuba – examples of a new kind of authority-backed tariff threat as compared to declarations on social media. Hutchinson Ports is seeking arbitration with Panama over the recent invalidation of their port operation concessions there, with China reportedly asking state companies to pause any development plans in Panama in retaliation.

Global air cargo volumes are projected to increase this year, though not as quickly as last year and at a big step down from the rapid e-comm driven rise in 2024. There are indications that China-US e-commerce volumes have contracted since the de minimis closure last year, and signs that e-comm growth to Europe is slowing. The EU is set to change their de minimis rules by 2028, and will assign a handling fee to low-value imports starting in July. But some EU countries are already charging for parcel imports – with reports of falling e-comm air volumes as a result – and opposition to de minimis from domestic retailers continues to grow, with objections by businesses in Poland the latest example.

Freightos Air Index data show China – N. America rates continued to climb last week, up 9% to more than $7.30/kg possibly reflecting some pre-LNY bump. And the pre-Valentine’s Day surge of S. American flower exports has prices to N. America at $2.10/kg and to Europe at $1.95/kg up 8% and 17% respectively compared to the end of January.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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ARC Forum Day One: Why Assisted Supply Chain Operations Are Reaching Their Limits

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Arc Forum Day One: Why Assisted Supply Chain Operations Are Reaching Their Limits

Day one discussions highlighted a reality many organizations are already experiencing: assisted supply chain operations have delivered benefits, but they are reaching practical limits.

Decision support systems and analytics platforms have improved visibility across planning and execution. Alerts surface faster. Recommendations are more informed. However, translating insight into action often remains slow. Decisions stall as they move across functions with different priorities, assumptions, and timelines.

In one example shared informally, a disruption was identified quickly, but resolution took hours because multiple teams interpreted the situation differently. The information was available, but coordination lagged.

Visibility alone does not produce alignment. When planning, execution, and response operate on different clocks, human intervention becomes the bottleneck. The issue is not the quality of the recommendation, but the organization’s ability to act on it consistently.

Several practitioners noted that layering advanced algorithms on top of inconsistent execution can increase friction. The calculations themselves are rarely disputed. The concern is whether the operating environment can support the actions being recommended.

The takeaway from day one is not that assisted operations have failed. Rather, their limits are now clear. Moving beyond them will require stronger foundations than many organizations currently have in place.

The post ARC Forum Day One: Why Assisted Supply Chain Operations Are Reaching Their Limits appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Supply Chain Execution Is a Top Issue Heading into the ARC Industry Leadership Forum

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Why Supply Chain Execution Is A Top Issue Heading Into The Arc Industry Leadership Forum

As this year’s ARC Industry Leadership Forum approaches, conversations with supply chain and logistics leaders point to a familiar concern: execution remains uneven, despite years of investment in systems and tools.

Most organizations have already deployed the platforms they intended to implement over the past decade. ERP upgrades are largely complete. Transportation and warehouse management systems are in place. Planning tools and analytics platforms are widely used. Yet performance still varies significantly across sites, regions, and product lines.

In early discussions, several executives described the same pattern. The systems exist, but teams continue to rely on manual coordination to keep operations moving. Exceptions are handled through email, meetings, and spreadsheets rather than flowing cleanly through integrated processes. The result is workable, but fragile.

The underlying issue is not technical capability. It is absorption. Complexity has accumulated over time without a corresponding simplification of operating models. Systems that were expected to integrate seamlessly often require workarounds to function day to day.

Operational variability adds further pressure. Raw material quality fluctuates. Energy supply is less predictable. Demand signals arrive later than planning cycles would prefer. Under these conditions, static assumptions and rigid workflows become difficult to sustain.

Heading into the Forum, the focus is less on adding new technology and more on execution discipline. Leaders are asking how much variability can realistically be reduced, and whether progress now depends more on stabilizing existing systems than on deploying additional ones.

The post Why Supply Chain Execution Is a Top Issue Heading into the ARC Industry Leadership Forum appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Sustainability Is Not a Side Initiative – It’s a Structural Capability

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Sustainability Is Not A Side Initiative – It’s A Structural Capability

For many organizations, sustainability in the supply chain began as a reporting obligation. Track emissions. Publish metrics. Meet regulatory requirements. File disclosures.

That framing is no longer sufficient.

Today, sustainability is increasingly tied to whether a supply chain can operate reliably under stress, absorb disruption, and adapt as conditions change. Climate volatility, regulatory pressure, resource constraints, and shifting customer expectations are not abstract risks. They are operational realities that affect cost, service, and continuity.

The most resilient supply chains are discovering that sustainability is not something added on later. It is something designed in.

Why Sustainability Now Shapes Supply Chain Resilience

Modern supply chains are exposed to overlapping forms of pressure. Extreme weather disrupts transportation and production. Resource scarcity raises costs and introduces volatility. Regulatory requirements evolve faster than traditional planning cycles. At the same time, stakeholders expect transparency across suppliers, partners, and logistics networks.

Treating sustainability as a compliance function leaves organizations reacting after disruptions occur. Treating it as a structural capability allows them to anticipate risk, adapt faster, and maintain performance when conditions change.

This shift moves sustainability from a reporting exercise into the core of supply chain design and execution.

Beyond Emissions: Sustainability as System Performance

A narrow focus on emissions alone misses the broader opportunity.

Sustainability at the system level is about how efficiently a network uses resources, energy, labor, and data across its entire lifecycle. It is about eliminating waste, reducing unnecessary variability, and designing flows that are both efficient and resilient.

Digitally mature supply chains are beginning to connect sustainability outcomes with operational decisions. Network design, inventory placement, transportation modes, supplier selection, and facility operations all influence environmental impact and resilience at the same time.

When these decisions are made in isolation, tradeoffs are hidden. When they are made at the system level, sustainability becomes a performance lever rather than a constraint.

Transparency Enables Adaptation

One of the biggest barriers to sustainable supply chain design is lack of visibility.

Many organizations still operate with fragmented data across procurement, logistics, manufacturing, and compliance functions. Sustainability metrics are often disconnected from day-to-day operational decisions, making it difficult to see how actions taken to improve service or reduce cost affect environmental outcomes.

Transparency changes that equation.

By integrating digital systems, improving data quality, and linking sustainability metrics to operational performance, organizations can identify risks earlier, understand tradeoffs more clearly, and adapt faster when conditions change.

Transparency is not just about reporting. It is about control.

Designing Networks That Endure Disruption

Sustainable supply chains are not optimized for a single steady-state condition. They are designed to endure disruption and adapt over time.

That means anticipating where risks are likely to emerge, whether from regulatory change, environmental stress, supplier concentration, or infrastructure constraints. It means building flexibility into networks so that shocks can be absorbed without cascading failure. And it means aligning sustainability goals with operational incentives, so improvements persist rather than degrade under pressure.

Resilience, sustainability, and competitiveness are increasingly intertwined. Improving one without considering the others leads to fragile outcomes.

A Practical Framework for Sustainable Supply Chain Design

The white paper Sustainability in the Supply Chain: Building Networks that Reduce Impact, Endure Disruption, and Adapt Over Time addresses these challenges directly.

Rather than treating sustainability as a standalone initiative, the guide frames it as a design principle that spans planning, execution, and continuous improvement. It explores how digitalization, transparency, and systems-level thinking can reduce environmental impact while strengthening operational performance.

The focus is pragmatic: how to anticipate risk, absorb shocks, and adapt as regulatory, market, and operational realities evolve.

Download the Guide

For supply chain leaders responsible for long-term performance, sustainability is no longer optional, and it is no longer separate from resilience or competitiveness.

Download: Sustainability in the Supply Chain – Building Networks that Reduce Impact, Endure Disruption, and Adapt Over Time

The organizations that succeed over the next decade will not be those with the best sustainability reports. They will be the ones that designed their supply chains to perform responsibly under real-world constraints.

The post Sustainability Is Not a Side Initiative – It’s a Structural Capability appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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