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Transpac ocean rates slide early; Carrier revenue slipping as fleet grows – February 10, 2026 Update

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Transpac ocean rates slide early; Carrier revenue slipping as fleet grows – February 10, 2026 Update

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Published: February 10, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 21% to $1,916/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 10% to $3,457/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 8% to $2,548/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) decreased 9% to $3,784/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 9% to $7.32/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 3% to $3.33/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 1% to $2.56/kg.

Analysis

The transpacific container market is firmly post the pre-Lunar New Year rush this year, with reports that demand increase that did materialize was muted. And while ocean rates typically ease as the holiday approaches, they normally remain elevated relative to levels before the rush until after the post-holiday backlog is cleared.

This year, however, Asia – US West Coast rates that slipped more than 20% last week to about $1,900/FEU are all the way back to early December levels, suggesting that prices are already entering the post-LNY, pre-peak season lull. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import report projects March volumes will dip 5% month-on-month, with Q1 demand expected to be down 7% year on year as retailers exercise caution and as totals are compared to volumes frontloaded in Q1 last year.

US container ports and air hubs have mostly recovered from the recent winter storm, though backlogs at inland rail terminals continue to cause delays for shippers. Bad weather in Europe closed ports in the Western Mediterranean and disrupted transits in the Bay of Biscay for a second time towards the end of last week. As conditions have improved this week operations and transits have resumed, though carriers warn of congestion and delays due to disrupted schedules.

Despite the congestion, easing pre-LNY demand means cooling rates on these lanes as well, with Asia – N. Europe and Mediterranean prices both down more than 8% last week, and daily rates so far this week slipping further to $2,700/FEU to Europe and $3,700/FEU to the Med. Though prices to Europe are about down to pre-LNY rush levels, those December rates were supported by strict capacity reduction, and expectations for a post-LNY bump on these lanes are reflected in GRIs of several hundred dollars per FEU planned for March.

Record global container volumes last year weren’t enough to keep carrier revenue growing as the global fleet continues to expand – likely a sign of things to come. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk both reported drops in earnings last year, with Maersk among carriers reporting losses for the first time in a long time in Q4 despite volume growth. And as a clear indication of the current uncertainty in the market, even with projections for demand growth again this year, Maersk forecasts either a profit or loss of around $1B for 2026, mostly hinging on whether or not container traffic returns to the Red Sea.

In trade war developments, President Trump signed executive orders codifying tariff reductions for India, and empowering the departments of commerce and state with the discretion to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran or selling oil to Cuba – examples of a new kind of authority-backed tariff threat as compared to declarations on social media. Hutchinson Ports is seeking arbitration with Panama over the recent invalidation of their port operation concessions there, with China reportedly asking state companies to pause any development plans in Panama in retaliation.

Global air cargo volumes are projected to increase this year, though not as quickly as last year and at a big step down from the rapid e-comm driven rise in 2024. There are indications that China-US e-commerce volumes have contracted since the de minimis closure last year, and signs that e-comm growth to Europe is slowing. The EU is set to change their de minimis rules by 2028, and will assign a handling fee to low-value imports starting in July. But some EU countries are already charging for parcel imports – with reports of falling e-comm air volumes as a result – and opposition to de minimis from domestic retailers continues to grow, with objections by businesses in Poland the latest example.

Freightos Air Index data show China – N. America rates continued to climb last week, up 9% to more than $7.30/kg possibly reflecting some pre-LNY bump. And the pre-Valentine’s Day surge of S. American flower exports has prices to N. America at $2.10/kg and to Europe at $1.95/kg up 8% and 17% respectively compared to the end of January.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The New Economics of Logistics Visibility

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Knowing that a shipment will arrive six hours late is information. Knowing it early enough to reschedule labor, protect a customer commitment, avoid detention, or change an inventory decision is economic value.

That distinction is becoming central to the logistics visibility market. The earlier argument that exceptions are becoming the real unit of work explains why visibility economics depend less on event volume than on whether the organization can convert important events into timely resolution.

The first era of visibility was largely about answering a basic question: Where is my shipment? The next era is about a harder question: What should I do because its state has changed?

Visibility Is Not the Outcome

Location and status data can be valuable, but they are intermediate products. A business does not earn a return because a dot moved across a map more accurately. The return appears when information changes an operational decision. A useful way to think about visibility is as a chain: signal -> interpretation -> decision -> intervention -> economic outcome. If any link is missing, much of the potential value disappears.

A Signal Has to Arrive Inside the Decision Window

Timing matters.

A delay discovered after the customer has already missed production is history. The same delay identified early enough to expedite an alternate shipment may be actionable. An ETA update received after warehouse labor has reported for a shift may have less value than the same update received while the schedule can still be changed.

This means visibility quality is not only about accuracy. It is about whether the signal arrives with enough lead time to support an intervention.

Not Every Exception Deserves Attention

As visibility improves, organizations often discover a new problem: too many exceptions. A network with thousands of shipments will always contain delays, deviations, missed scans, changing ETAs, and incomplete data. If every deviation creates an alert, planners become the bottleneck. The more important capability is prioritization.

Which late shipment threatens a high-value order? Which delay creates a stockout? Which container risks demurrage? Which arrival change will disrupt a dock schedule? Which event is likely to self-correct without intervention?

Visibility becomes intelligence when the system can distinguish operational consequence from mere deviation.

ETA Is a Decision Input

Estimated time of arrival is a good example of how the economics are changing. ETA was once primarily a customer-service or tracking metric. Increasingly it can influence warehouse scheduling, yard planning, labor, inventory, customer promises, and downstream transportation. That makes ETA a shared operating variable.

The value increases when the prediction is connected to the systems that can respond. A changing ETA that remains trapped in a visibility dashboard creates less value than one that can trigger a workflow or decision elsewhere.

Dwell, Detention, and Demurrage Make the Economics Visible

Some visibility use cases have direct financial consequences. Better awareness of arrival, dwell, free-time windows, and container status can help organizations manage detention and demurrage exposure. Yard visibility can reduce unnecessary trailer search and moves. Earlier exception detection can protect delivery appointments and reduce costly service recovery. These cases make an important point: visibility value is often realized outside the visibility platform itself.

More Visibility Can Increase Work

This is the uncomfortable side of digital transparency. If a company exposes ten times as many events but does not improve prioritization or workflow, it may create ten times as many things for people to inspect. The result can be an expensive monitoring layer sitting on top of the same manual decision process.

That is why visibility and autonomous exception management are converging. The system must increasingly help decide which events require action, assemble context, recommend a response, and automate routine resolution where appropriate.

Measure Intervention, Not Just Coverage

Visibility programs are often measured by tracking coverage, data completeness, ETA accuracy, or number of connected carriers. Those are necessary operating metrics, but they do not fully describe business value.

Organizations should also ask: How many material exceptions were identified early enough to act? How quickly were they resolved? How often did intervention protect service or avoid cost? How many alerts required no useful action? How much planner time was consumed per exception?

Those measures connect visibility to economics.

The Market Is Moving Toward Action

This shift has strategic implications for technology providers. Pure visibility is becoming less differentiated as location and event data become more widely available. The higher-value layer is interpretation and action: understanding what an event means to a specific operation and helping execute the appropriate response.

That pushes visibility platforms toward orchestration, workflow, decision intelligence, and AI. It also pushes TMS, WMS, and other execution systems toward richer external event awareness.

The Bottleneck Moves

For years, logistics organizations complained that they could not make better decisions because they could not see what was happening. Increasingly, they can see more.

The bottleneck is moving.

When a network can identify exceptions continuously, the constraint becomes the speed and quality with which the organization can interpret and resolve them. That is precisely the environment in which AI agents become interesting—not because logistics needs another conversational interface, but because it needs more capacity to do operational work.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Autonomous Exception Management Market Map
The Economics of Decision Latency
Previous in this series: Transportation Is Becoming Computational

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o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions

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Supply chain decision-making is difficult partly because the relevant information is distributed across products, locations, suppliers, orders, capacities, policies, and external events. A system may have access to all of those records and still struggle to understand the relationships among them quickly enough to support a consequential decision.

o9 Solutions addresses that problem through its Digital Brain architecture, including an enterprise knowledge graph and in-memory modeling designed to connect demand, supply, inventory, planning, and operating context. That semantic layer is important because it gives analytics and AI a structured representation of how supply chain entities relate to one another rather than treating the environment as a collection of independent tables and documents.

The company combines this architecture with integrated planning, optimization, scenario modeling, machine learning, and human oversight. The strategic direction is toward a continuous decision environment where changes can be interpreted quickly, alternatives can be modeled, and recommendations can be traced back to the assumptions, events, and constraints that produced them.

As with any broad planning and intelligence platform, the value depends on implementation quality. Knowledge models need strong data governance, entity resolution, process ownership, and clear decision rights. A sophisticated model of the supply chain is useful only if the organization can keep it current and use it consistently in real operating workflows.

o9 Solutions appears in the Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The two MarketMaps highlight the relationship between integrated decision intelligence and the faster exception-response capabilities now developing around it.

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AI Will Not Transform the Supply Chain Until the Architecture Around It Catches Up

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Executive thesis. The model is becoming the least durable layer of the AI stack. Sustainable advantage will come from the operating architecture around AI: authoritative context, governed tools, permissions, observability, and connection to enterprise workflows.

The model is only one component

Supply chain AI discussions often begin with model capability: prediction accuracy, reasoning quality, computer vision performance, or the fluency of a generative system. Those capabilities matter, but operational value depends on everything around the model. The system still needs authoritative context, enterprise tools, permissions, workflow, observability, and a reliable path from recommendation to action.

Different AI patterns solve different problems

Prediction, optimization, generative AI, vision, and agents should not be treated as interchangeable technologies. Forecasting demand, selecting a route, extracting information from a document, interpreting an image, and executing a multi-step workflow require different evidence, control, and performance measures. A mature architecture starts with the decision or task and chooses the AI pattern that fits it.

Context is the operating fuel

An AI system can produce a plausible answer while using stale or incomplete operational context. In logistics, that can be dangerous because the truth may reside across orders, inventory, rates, carrier status, warehouse state, supplier records, and policy documents. Retrieval, master data, identity resolution, and system access therefore become part of the AI architecture, not secondary data-engineering concerns.

Tool access turns intelligence into consequence

The moment an AI system can create a shipment, change an order, contact a carrier, release inventory, or approve an exception, governance becomes an operational requirement. Tool permissions, financial limits, approval gates, idempotency, retries, and rollback are the mechanisms that separate an interesting demonstration from a dependable production workflow.

Measure workflow performance

A fluent response is not the right success metric for operational AI. Supply chain leaders should measure decision latency, manual context gathering, exception closure, override behavior, error recovery, tool failure, and the business outcome being improved. That measurement discipline also creates a rational basis for expanding autonomy as evidence accumulates.

The Logistics Viewpoints AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide separates the major AI patterns and connects them to data, tools, governance, workflow, observability, and ROI—the architecture required to move from model capability to operating value.

Executive implication

AI strategy should separate model selection from control architecture and measure value through workflow performance, decision quality, and operational outcomes.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. AI & Advanced Analytics connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

Download: AI in the Supply Chain — From Architecture to Execution
The New Architecture of Logistics

Go Deeper

Read the full AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide.

Explore the broader AI & Advanced Analytics domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

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