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Red Sea rebound false start? – December 3, 2025 Update

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Red Sea rebound false start? – December 3, 2025 Update

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December 3, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 10% to $$1,715/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 17% to $2,863/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) stayed level at $2,467/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 2% to $2,930/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices stayed level at $6.49/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 4% to $4.14/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $2.44/kg.

Analysis

Last week, statements by the Suez Canal Authority indicated that Maersk’s return to the Red Sea was imminent. Maersk quickly denied they had set a date, and now it appears all the excitement may have been mostly a misunderstanding, though there are signs that Maersk is at least dipping some toes back to the lane through third parties.

So a Red Sea rebound may not be coming as soon as it seemed a few days ago, but a return is likely still closer than it has been for the last two years. The resumption, whenever it occurs, will cause congestion at European hubs – where congested ports are leading some carriers to already adjust port call plans – during the transition back before releasing significant amounts of capacity back into rotation and adding downward pressure on rates once schedules normalize.

You can see our full analysis of a Red Sea rebound here.

Even before a Red Sea reset, there are already signs of growing overcapacity in the market. This fleet growth even with Red Sea diversions still in place has meant lower container rates year on year for most of 2025.

Transpacific rates fell further to close November, with West Coast rates down 10% to $1,715/FEU and East Coast rates easing 17% to $2,863/FEU. These dips brought transpacific prices within a couple hundred dollars of year lows after climbing on mid-October and early November GRIs Demand is estimated to be at its lowest since early 2023, but supply side growth is also contributing to lower rates. Daily rates this week are trending up though, which could signal another GRI attempt to start December.

More aggressive capacity management on Asia – Europe lanes are likely responsible for carriers succeeding to maintain October and November GRIs on these trades. Prices were level last week at about $2,500/FEU to Europe and $2,900/FEU to the Mediterranean. Daily rates to the Mediterranean are up to about the $3,400/FEU level so far this week suggesting a GRI push, though prices to Europe have stayed about level. New EU emissions surcharges will mean higher costs to carriers on these lanes that will start to be passed on to customers in January.

Severe storms in South East Asia last week disrupted ocean and air freight operations in countries including Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. Of these, Sri Lanka may have been the hardest hit, with delays reported at the Port of Colombo as services restart.

Also late last week, Airbus grounded 6,000 of its A320s for a critical software update with a hardware fix needed for about 1,000 of these aircraft. Most vessels were updated and returned to service over the weekend, with no significant delays reported yet. FedEx and UPS have grounded their MD11s following a deadly crash, and though FedEx anticipated a rapid inspection process, aircraft are taking longer than expected to get back in the air.

The US cancelled its de minimis exemptions over the summer driving a significant reshuffle of e-commerce air cargo volumes and capacity over the last few months. The EU has committed to revoking its de minimis rules by 2028, though it may do so as early as next year. The UK has now also decided to terminate the exception. But with a later target date of 2029, there is concern that an even stronger surge of e-comm goods could enter the country once de minimis to the other major markets close.

Freightos Air Index rates to Europe climbed 4% to $4.14/kg out of China last week and were about level at $3.67/kg out of South East Asia. China – N. America prices were level at $6.50/kg last week but show signs of increases this week as peak season enters its home stretch. SEA – N. America rates are at about $5.50/kg so far this week.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Supply Chain Planning Is Collapsing Into Execution and That Changes the Software Stack

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Executive thesis. The traditional separation between planning and execution is becoming structurally obsolete. Competitive advantage is shifting from producing a better periodic plan to shortening the cycle from operating signal to decision to executable response.

Periodic planning is giving way to continuous decision cycles

The legacy model assumed that supply chain planning was organized around periodic cycles: assemble the data, produce a forecast, optimize a plan, publish it, and then let execution teams absorb the consequences. That model is difficult to sustain when demand, inventory, transportation capacity, labor, supplier performance, and customer commitments can change faster than the formal planning cadence. The material shift is not that planning disappears. It is that planning becomes a continuously refreshed decision process that sits much closer to execution.

Execution constraints now define whether a plan is credible

A plan is only as credible as its understanding of the constraints that determine whether it can be executed. Available inventory, dock capacity, carrier acceptance, labor, production status, supplier reliability, and warehouse throughput can no longer be treated as downstream details. As those signals move upstream, planning systems need tighter connections to systems of execution and a more explicit model of what is feasible now—not what is mathematically desirable.

The architecture is reorganizing around decisions, not application silos

This changes the technology architecture. Traditional planning platforms, control towers, visibility systems, decision-intelligence layers, and execution applications overlap around the same questions: what changed, what is the business impact, what alternatives exist, and which action should be taken? The answer is unlikely to be one monolithic application. It is more likely to be an architecture in which planning models, event data, enterprise context, decision logic, and execution services interact with far less latency than they did in the classic plan-then-execute model.

Decision latency is becoming a first-order performance metric

The implication for supply chain leaders is that planning quality cannot be judged only by forecast accuracy or optimization quality. Decision latency matters as well. A technically superior plan that arrives after the operating window has closed has limited value. Enterprises should therefore examine how quickly their architecture can detect a material deviation, recalculate the relevant alternatives, expose tradeoffs, obtain the required approval, and propagate the decision into execution.

Buyer criteria must move from module coverage to decision performance

The evaluation question is no longer whether a planning product has the right modules. Buyers need to test how the system behaves when the operating environment departs from the plan. As a result, using real constraints, real data dependencies, realistic exception scenarios, and the systems that will ultimately execute the response. The strongest planning architecture will not eliminate judgment. It will make judgment faster, better informed, and easier to convert into controlled action.

For organizations reevaluating planning technology, the practical starting point is to define the decisions the planning environment must support, the constraints that make those decisions executable, and the evidence required to trust the result. The Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Planning Software: Buyer’s Guide provides a structured framework for that evaluation, including planning scope, architecture, scenario analysis, integration, and buyer proof points.

Executive implication

Leaders should evaluate planning technology as part of a continuous decision system, with execution constraints, decision latency, and closed-loop response treated as core design criteria.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. Planning, Execution & Visibility connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Supply Chain Planning Market Map
2026 Supply Chain Decision Intelligence Market Map

Go Deeper

Read the full Supply Chain Planning Software: Buyer’s Guide.

Explore the broader Planning, Execution & Visibility domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

The post Supply Chain Planning Is Collapsing Into Execution and That Changes the Software Stack appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why WMS Architecture Now Matters as Much as Feature Breadth

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Warehouse management systems are being pushed into a continuously changing execution environment, making architecture as important as feature breadth. The pressure is not simply to add more automation or AI, but to keep the operating plan aligned with physical reality as that reality changes.

Labor scarcity, tighter customer cutoffs, omnichannel fulfillment, higher sku complexity, automation investment, faster order cycles, and the need to coordinate people and machines in real time are shortening the useful life of any plan. A decision that was correct an hour ago can become wrong when a carrier rejects, a dock closes, an order changes, a piece of automation fails, or a priority customer needs a different response. That architectural emphasis follows naturally from The Warehouse Is Becoming a Cyber-Physical System, where software design directly shapes the behavior of labor, automation, inventory, and physical flow.

The relevant operating events include a late inbound trailer, a constrained dock, a wave that threatens a carrier cutoff, an automation cell that goes down, or an urgent order that must be reprioritized without destabilizing the rest of the facility. These are not unusual edge cases; they are the normal variability of modern logistics. The market is therefore rewarding platforms that can absorb change without forcing every exception into a manual coordination loop.

Architecture is becoming a product differentiator

The operating architecture is ERP and OMS upstream; WMS at the inventory-and-work core; WES/WCS, robotics, conveyors, sortation, labor systems, YMS, parcel, and TMS around the execution edge. This means provider differentiation increasingly depends on event latency, API and network connectivity, data-model quality, workflow controls, and the ability to preserve a coherent operating state across boundaries.

Feature parity can hide large architectural differences. One platform may expose an event after the fact; another may use that event to re-evaluate priorities, prepare a response, and push a governed action into the next system. Both can claim visibility or AI. Only one has compressed the operating loop.

AI matters when it changes the decision cycle

The next layer of value is not AI as a separate product. It is intelligence embedded into the decisions the category already owns. WMS is moving from a transactional warehouse application toward a real-time execution and orchestration layer that coordinates inventory, labor, automation, and downstream transportation constraints The strongest use cases combine reliable execution data, explicit constraints, explainable recommendations, and controlled action rather than treating a model output as the endpoint.

A serious evaluation should test operational fit, configurability without excessive customization, automation integration, real-time work orchestration, data and API architecture, scalability, implementation model, upgradeability, and measurable warehouse outcomes. Buyers should also measure inventory accuracy, order cycle time, throughput, labor productivity, dock-to-stock time, order accuracy, exception volume, automation utilization, and recovery time after disruption. Those measures reveal whether the new capability is actually improving flow, responsiveness, cost, and service or simply creating more software activity.

The market shift is therefore structural. Technology boundaries are blurring because the work itself is becoming more connected. Providers that understand the operating loop will increasingly look different from products built around a static transaction model.

Architecture shows up in warehouse operating metrics

Architecture can sound abstract until it is translated into the measures a distribution center already cares about. Event latency affects how quickly supervisors react to a blocked zone. Integration quality affects whether automation receives the right work at the right time. Data integrity affects inventory accuracy and pick completion. Decision orchestration affects dwell, cutoff performance, backlog, and the amount of work managers have to manually resequence.

For that reason, buyers should connect architecture questions to measurable outcomes. Ask providers to demonstrate what happens when an inbound trailer is late, a work area becomes constrained, an automation cell stops, or an urgent customer order enters after work has been released. The stronger platform is the one that preserves a coherent operating state and adapts without requiring a chain of manual reconciliation.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Warehouse Management Systems Market Map
The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
The Digital Backbone of the Warehouse: Trends Shaping the 2026 WMS Market
Previous in this series: What Is a WMS in 2026? The Warehouse Management System Is Becoming Something More

Request the 2026 Warehouse Management Systems Market Map Brochure

The 2026 Market Map is designed to help organizations understand the structure of the WMS market, evaluate provider differences, and identify the capabilities most relevant to their operating environment. If your organization is evaluating WMS platforms or preparing a shortlist, I would be glad to provide the Market Map brochure and discuss the evaluation questions and provider differences most relevant to your requirements.

Request the WMS Market Map Brochure

For technology providers

Providers may request the brochure, discuss the research framework, or contact me to confirm how their capabilities are represented in the market assessment.

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Shipsy Connects Transportation Orchestration With Exception Response

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Transportation management is expanding beyond planning loads and tendering freight. Modern platforms are increasingly expected to coordinate carriers, track execution, optimize routes, manage exceptions, communicate with stakeholders, and use live operating data to adjust decisions while freight is moving.

Shipsy is positioned around that broader logistics-orchestration model. Its cloud platform spans transportation management, carrier allocation, freight procurement, shipment tracking, route optimization, first-mile through last-mile workflows, and analytics. The company also emphasizes AI-enabled capabilities intended to automate planning and execution decisions across increasingly complex logistics networks.

The connection to exception management is significant. Transportation generates a constant stream of deviations: capacity changes, missed pickups, route delays, delivery risks, documentation problems, and customer-service exceptions. A platform that already coordinates transportation workflows has the opportunity to detect those events, assess their impact, and automate an appropriate response inside the same operating environment.

The buyer question is how well those capabilities scale across real-world complexity. Organizations should evaluate optimization quality, carrier and system connectivity, geographic depth, data latency, workflow configurability, and governance for automated actions. The most useful AI in transportation will be the AI that reliably improves execution, not simply the AI that adds another interface.

Shipsy is included in the Logistics Viewpoints Transportation Management Systems MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The combination reflects the increasingly close relationship between transportation management and the systems responsible for identifying and resolving operational exceptions.

The post Shipsy Connects Transportation Orchestration With Exception Response appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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