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From Hidden Inventory to Returns Recovery: Exposing Operational Blind Spots

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From Hidden Inventory To Returns Recovery: Exposing Operational Blind Spots

The frenzy of peak season has passed, but its effects linger. For many organizations, the weeks following the holiday rush expose deeper inventory blind spots: returns pile up, inventory vanishes into processing limbo, and the hard reality that customer promises made under duress often slip through the cracks. Why does this cycle repeat, and what is really fueling these blind spots?

To move beyond conjecture, we interviewed more than 215 supply chain executives from North America and Europe, excavating data and real-world experiences from across the industry. The findings reveal a collective truth: regardless of sector, the invisible inventory crisis and the returns black hole remain among the thorniest challenges in post-peak recovery.

Inventory Blind Spots Inside the Network

Imagine a network full of inventory, and yet your systems cannot mobilize it when it is needed most. Sound familiar? Almost a quarter of the leaders we interviewed (23%) admit they cannot access inventory that physically exists in their network. An even larger share (28%) needed to cancel orders despite stock being available somewhere in their system. Now layer this on top of the scale of order volumes you get at peak, and the pain points become loud and clear:

Lost sales and false stockouts: When your systems are disconnected and data is fragmented, you lose real-time visibility to your inventory position. The solution may list an item as newly returned, just put away, or in transit, but shows “out of stock” online. When your system is unable to make order promises confidently, it impacts sales and consumer trust.
Trapped working capital: Inventory residing in returns channels, unallocated sites, or “stuck” in buffering becomes a sunk cost rather than an asset. The system holds safety stock hostage, even as one node suffers markdowns and another runs empty (an outcome reported by 39% of organizations surveyed).
Network-wide blind spots: While a remarkable 88% of surveyed executives report robust visibility in their own DCs, that clarity dissolves across partner sites, field operations, and third parties. When systems do not speak the same language or update in real time, the result is conflicting signals. One platform shows the stock as received; another shows it as in transit. A return is scanned but is not yet sellable. Instead of a single, trusted view, teams must reconcile delayed feeds and manual reports. That is how data fragmentation turns abundant information into operational confusion, and why products that physically exist still behave as if they do not.

The consequences are staggering: according to the NRF, returns alone have cost organizations over $75 billion in 2025. Real progress starts with tearing down these silos. The leaders in our study converge around a unified, real-time inventory model, bringing every node, from store, returned goods, warehouse, partners, to 3PLs, into a single source of truth. That level of synchronization does not just enable precision in order sourcing and fulfilment, it transforms “invisible” assets into available, value-driving stock.

The returns black hole

Returns are no longer just a retail story. They are headline news for distributors, logistics providers, and wholesalers alike. Across the 215+ executives we surveyed, returns emerged as the most unpredictable and costly pool of inventory. Some sectors are now seeing return rates stubbornly above 16%, transforming the “reverse channel” into an operational minefield. The research underscores this: 57% have between 5% and 15% of their inventory value, often $8 million to $25 million for a $1 billion network, locked in returns processing at any time.

Why does so much value fall through the cracks?

Capital tied up in limbo: Without intelligent, responsive systems, organizations inadvertently re-order goods they already own but cannot locate or redeploy. The working capital impact is enormous.
Forced markdowns vs. full-price recovery: When decisioning depends on batch rules or delayed data feeds, returned stock misses windows for full-price resale or redeployment. In fact, 56% of organizations told us they cannot resell eligible returns daily or even weekly, as opportunity dwindles even further for seasonal goods and/or fashion houses with fast-moving cycles.
Disconnected systems and feedback loops: With returns handled in the periphery, the rest of the supply chain operates blindly. The operational feedback needed for smarter, more lucrative resale and recovery is out of sync or absent.

The lesson: Integrating returns into the execution network, similar to OMS, WMS, and TMS in real-time, is indispensable. The most advanced supply chains are leveraging AI-driven Smart Disposition. Smart Disposition utilizes intelligent, real-time decisioning to route every return to its most valuable next destination, be it a demand hotspot, a wholesale partner, or express redeployment to fill a spike downstream. This approach turns a cost center into a fast recovery engine, ensuring those billions of peak-season API calls yield results all year.

Why it matters now

What is striking is not just the frequency of these blind spots, but how deeply various sectors have embedded them. Every API call, every promise made to a customer or partner, and every returned item piling up in the warehouse reflects the health and dysfunction of the underlying inventory network. Our research revealed that nearly 38% of organizations consider promise failures urgent, proof that trust can break down long before the truck leaves the dock.

The post-peak period is your rarest opportunity to rethink everything before the next surge exposes the same structural flaws. Instead of firefighting one false stockout, one late return, or one missed promise at a time, now is the moment to break the cycle. The organizations winning in this landscape are not waiting for another peak crisis. They are asking challenging questions and acting with urgency:

Do we have a real-time, unified view of every unit across all channels and partners?
Are you getting more returned items sold at full price, or is your largest inventory pool still sitting in a black hole?
Are your returns routed to drive maximum recovery, or simply flowing to the nearest or standard facility by default?
Does your technology adapt dynamically as demand, conditions, and customer expectations shift, even at the height of peak season traffic?

If these questions unsettle you, you are not alone, and you are not stuck. Treat your returns as your largest inventory asset to manage, not just a cost center. Turn invisible inventory into working capital, because building the foundation for staying peak-ready relies on agility, real-time data, and intelligent order orchestration. Starting now.

You can download the full report here: Real-time retail: The new operating model for inventory intelligence.

Author:

Hiu Wai Loh, Senior Product Marketing Manager, Commerce

Hiu Wai Loh is a Product Marketing Leader supporting the growth and market positioning of the growing Order Management and Returns portfolio within Blue Yonder. She plays a strategic role across go-to-market planning, analyst relations, commercial strategy, and global sales enablement, helping align product innovation with measurable business value. She works closely with global retailers, distributors, and logistics providers as they adapt to the increasing speed and complexity of modern agentic commerce. Her work focuses on translating real-world supply chain challenges into practical, data-driven operating models that improve working capital efficiency and customer trust.

She is particularly interested in building and scaling new product categories from zero to one and how real-time orchestration and AI are reshaping the future of digital commerce.

Based in London, she enjoys water sports and time outdoors.

The post From Hidden Inventory to Returns Recovery: Exposing Operational Blind Spots appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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The OSI Model and AI in the Supply Chain: Why Layered Architecture Still Matters

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AI in the supply chain is often approached as an application problem. In practice, it is more often an architectural one. The OSI model offers a useful lens for understanding why.

The Architecture Problem Behind AI in Supply Chains

Most discussions about AI in the supply chain begin at the top of the stack. They focus on copilots, models, dashboards, and use cases such as forecasting, routing, and risk detection. Those applications matter, but they are not the starting point.

The more important issue is the architecture underneath them.

This is where the OSI model becomes a useful reference point. Not because supply chains operate like communications networks in any literal sense, but because the OSI model solved a similar structural problem. It separated complexity into layers and clarified how those layers interact. That same discipline is becoming increasingly relevant as AI moves deeper into logistics and supply chain operations.

AI in the Supply Chain Is Best Understood as a Layered System

The most practical way to think about AI in the supply chain is as a layered system.

At the foundation is the data layer. This includes ERP, TMS, WMS, IoT signals, supplier feeds, and external data sources. If this layer is fragmented or inconsistent, the layers above it will underperform. That aligns directly with the data harmonization requirement described in ARC research. AI depends on clean, linked, and current data, and advanced systems are only as effective as the data they operate on .

Above that is the communication layer. In traditional systems, applications exchange information through rigid integrations, manual handoffs, and batch processes. In more advanced environments, data and decisions move through APIs, event streams, and increasingly through agent-to-agent coordination. ARC’s framework describes A2A as a way for autonomous software agents to interact directly, share data, assess options, and execute decisions across the supply chain . That matters because modern supply chains do not just need better analytics. They need faster coordination across functions.

Context Is the Missing Layer in Many AI Deployments

The next layer is context. This is where many AI initiatives begin to weaken. Systems may generate plausible recommendations, but without memory of prior events, supplier history, operational constraints, or previous failures, they remain limited. The white paper describes the Model Context Protocol as a way to embed memory, identity, and continuity into AI systems so they can retain operating context over time and carry that context across workflows . In supply chain settings, that kind of continuity is important because decisions are rarely isolated. They are part of a sequence.

Reasoning Must Reflect the Networked Nature of Supply Chains

Then comes the reasoning layer. This is where retrieval-augmented generation and graph-based reasoning become useful. RAG allows systems to retrieve current, domain-specific information before generating an answer. Graph RAG extends that by reasoning across interconnected entities and dependencies. ARC’s analysis makes the point clearly: supply chains are networks, not lists, and graph structures help AI navigate those interdependencies more effectively .

This is one of the more important distinctions in enterprise AI. A system that can retrieve a policy document is useful. A system that can understand how a supplier, a port, an order, and a downstream constraint relate to one another is more operationally relevant.

Why Many AI Initiatives Stall

At the top is the application layer, the part users actually see. This includes control towers, planning workbenches, copilots, and workflow assistants. Most companies start here. That is understandable, because this is the visible part of the stack. It is also why many AI initiatives produce narrow results. The application may improve, but the lower layers remain weak.

That is the main lesson the OSI analogy helps clarify. AI in the supply chain should not be treated primarily as a front-end feature. It is better understood as a layered architecture that depends on data quality, system interoperability, context retention, and network-aware reasoning.

This also helps explain why some AI deployments perform well in demonstrations but struggle in operations. The model itself may be capable, but the environment around it may not be ready. Data may not be harmonized. Systems may not communicate cleanly. Context may not persist. Knowledge retrieval may not be grounded in current enterprise information. In those cases, the problem is not that AI has limited potential. The problem is that the stack is incomplete.

The ARC Framework Points to a More Durable Model

The ARC framework points toward a more grounded view. A2A supports coordination between systems. MCP supports continuity across time and decisions. RAG supports access to relevant knowledge. Graph RAG supports reasoning across a networked operating environment. Together, these are not just features. They are components of an emerging architecture for supply chain intelligence.

What This Means for Supply Chain Leaders

For supply chain leaders, the implication is practical. AI strategy should begin with the question, “What layers need to be in place for these systems to work reliably at scale?” That shifts the focus away from isolated pilots and toward a more durable operating model.

In practical terms, that means improving data harmonization before expanding model deployment. It means designing for system-to-system coordination rather than relying only on dashboards and alerts. It means treating context as infrastructure rather than as a convenience feature. And it means building toward reasoning systems that reflect the networked nature of the supply chain itself.

Bottom Line

The OSI model is not a blueprint for AI in logistics. But it remains a useful reminder that complex systems tend to perform better when their layers are clearly defined and properly integrated.

That is becoming true of AI in the supply chain as well.

The companies that recognize this early are more likely to build systems that support better coordination, more consistent decision-making, and more useful intelligence across the network. The companies that do not may continue to add AI applications at the surface while leaving the underlying architecture unresolved.

The post The OSI Model and AI in the Supply Chain: Why Layered Architecture Still Matters appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Anthropic’s Mythos Raises the Stakes for Software Security

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Anthropic’s decision to restrict access to Mythos is more than a product decision. It suggests that frontier AI is moving into a more serious class of cybersecurity capability, with implications for software vendors, critical infrastructure, and the digital systems that support modern supply chains.

Anthropic’s latest announcement deserves attention well beyond the AI market.

The company says its new Claude Mythos Preview model has identified thousands of previously unknown software vulnerabilities across major operating systems, browsers, and other widely used software environments. But the more important point is not the claim itself. It is the release strategy. Anthropic did not make the model broadly available. It placed Mythos inside a controlled early-access program and limited access to a select group of major technology and security organizations.

That tells you something.

This is not being positioned as another general-purpose model that happens to be good at security work. Anthropic is treating Mythos as a system with enough cyber capability, and enough dual-use risk, to justify a restricted rollout. That is a notable change in posture.

For supply chain and logistics leaders, the relevance is not hard to see. Modern supply chains now depend on a thick software layer: ERP platforms, transportation systems, warehouse systems, visibility tools, APIs, cloud infrastructure, industrial software, and partner integrations. If frontier AI materially improves the speed and scale at which vulnerabilities can be found, then this is not just a cybersecurity story. It is an operations story.

A compromised transportation platform is not merely an IT issue. A weakness in a warehouse execution environment is not just a software problem. These failures can disrupt planning, fulfillment, supplier coordination, inventory visibility, and customer service. In a software-mediated supply chain, cyber weakness increasingly becomes operational weakness.

That is the real significance here.

Over the last year, much of the AI discussion has centered on productivity. Better copilots. Faster coding. More automation. Mythos is a reminder that the same capability gains can cut the other way too. A model that is better at reasoning through code and complex systems may also be better at finding weaknesses, chaining exploits, and shortening the gap between vulnerability discovery and exploitation.

That does not mean a disaster scenario is around the corner. But it does mean the discussion is changing.

There is also a second issue in Anthropic’s release strategy. Early access creates asymmetry. The organizations that get access to these tools first will be in a better position to harden their environments than those that do not. Large platform vendors and elite security firms are more likely to absorb this shift quickly. Smaller software providers and companies with less security depth may not.

That matters commercially as well as technically.

In a more AI-intensive security environment, resilience becomes a more visible part of product value. Customers will still care about features, workflow, and ROI. But they will also care, more directly, about whether a vendor can secure its software stack in an environment where advanced models may be able to surface weaknesses faster than traditional testing methods ever could. For some vendors, that will strengthen their position. For others, it may expose how thin their defenses really are.

There is also a governance signal here. A leading AI company has decided that broad release is not the responsible first step for this class of capability. Whether that becomes standard practice or not, it marks a threshold. It suggests that at least some frontier model capabilities now carry enough cybersecurity weight to influence how they are released and who gets access first.

Enterprise technology leaders should pay attention to that.

They should also take the broader lesson. Security cannot sit on the edge of the AI agenda. It has to move closer to the center of the operating model. That means tighter software supply chain governance, faster patching cycles, better dependency visibility, stronger segmentation of critical systems, and more disciplined red-teaming. It also means recognizing that cyber resilience is now part of business resilience.

There is a related point here. If models like Mythos increase uncertainty around software security, vendors will face a higher burden to prove resilience. If vulnerability discovery is getting faster and cheaper, then older assumptions about defensibility, testing depth, and incumbent safety become less comfortable. That pressure will not fall evenly. Firms with strong engineering depth and security discipline are more likely to absorb it. Others may find that the market becomes less forgiving.

For supply chain leaders, the takeaway is straightforward. As AI becomes more deeply embedded in planning, logistics, and execution systems, the integrity of the software environment becomes more central to performance. If frontier models accelerate vulnerability discovery, the burden on both vendors and enterprises to secure those environments rises with it.

Mythos matters not because it proves the worst case. It matters because it shows where the curve is going.

A major AI developer has now made clear that frontier AI is moving into territory where the cybersecurity implications are serious enough to shape release strategy and access controls. That is a meaningful development. Supply chain and technology leaders should treat it that way.

The post Anthropic’s Mythos Raises the Stakes for Software Security appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Autonomous Trucking Is Fragmenting Into Distinct Market Entry Models

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Autonomous trucking is no longer a single category defined by technical ambition. It is fragmenting into distinct market entry models, each with different paths to commercialization, risk profiles, and timelines for impact on freight execution.

A Market No Longer Defined by One End State

Autonomous trucking is no longer a single race to full driverless operation. It is fragmenting into distinct entry models, each addressing a different part of the freight problem with different timelines, risk profiles, and economic logic.

For several years, the category was framed as a single end state: driverless trucks operating broadly across long-haul freight networks.

That framing no longer fits the market as it is developing.

What is emerging instead is a set of entry models, each aimed at a different operational problem. These models are not progressing on the same timeline, and they are not constrained by the same variables. For supply chain and logistics executives, that distinction matters more than tracking broad claims about autonomy.

This pattern is common in industrial technology. New capabilities rarely enter at the most complex point in the system. They enter where variability is manageable, the economics are clearer, and operational value can be demonstrated sooner.

Long-Haul Autonomy Remains the Full-Stack Ambition

The most visible model remains long-haul autonomous trucking. This is the original vision: driverless trucks moving across highway networks, reducing labor constraints and improving asset utilization.

The opportunity is substantial, but so are the requirements. These systems must operate safely at highway speed, handle weather and traffic variation, and meet a more demanding regulatory and operational standard than narrower autonomy use cases.

Companies such as Aurora, Kodiak, and Torc Robotics are pursuing this path with increasing focus on defined freight corridors and structured deployment plans. Rather than attempting broad geographic coverage too early, these companies are concentrating on lanes where conditions can be better controlled and performance can be measured with more discipline. Other entrants such as Waabi, Plus, and a range of OEM and infrastructure partners are advancing similar models across different segments of the market.

Middle-Mile Autonomy Offers a Faster Commercial Path

A second model has emerged with a different profile: middle-mile autonomy.

Instead of solving for open-ended highway networks, this approach focuses on repeatable routes between fixed nodes such as distribution centers, stores, and cross-dock facilities. The operating environment is still demanding, but the variability is lower and the economic case can be easier to establish.

Gatik is the clearest example of this model. Its approach reflects a practical reality in freight automation: autonomy does not need to solve the hardest problem first to create value. In many supply chains, middle-mile freight is frequent, predictable, and costly enough that even partial automation can improve network performance. This makes middle-mile autonomy one of the more credible early commercial entry points.

Yard and Terminal Autonomy Benefit From Bounded Environments

A third model is taking shape in yards, terminals, and other bounded environments.

Here, the domain is tighter, speeds are lower, and routes are more repetitive. That reduces deployment complexity and creates a more practical setting for automation to mature.

Outrider is an example of how this strategy is developing. Yard operations are often overlooked in broader autonomy discussions, but they matter. Delays at this stage affect linehaul schedules, dock utilization, and downstream fulfillment performance. As a result, yard autonomy may scale earlier than more ambitious highway programs, not because it is more important, but because it is operationally easier to implement.

Hybrid and Teleoperated Models Create a Bridge

Between fully manual operations and fully autonomous systems, hybrid models are also emerging.

These combine onboard automation with remote human intervention, allowing systems to handle routine tasks while escalating exceptions when needed. This approach lowers deployment risk and gives operators a way to build confidence without requiring immediate full autonomy in all conditions.

FERNRIDE reflects this bridging strategy. Its relevance is not just technical. It points to a broader truth about the category: the path to autonomy is likely to be incremental in many freight environments. Hybrid models can help carriers and shippers introduce automation in a way that fits operational reality rather than forcing a binary shift from manual to driverless.

OEM Integration May Determine Who Scales

Another important path is OEM-integrated autonomy.

In this model, autonomous capabilities are built into commercial vehicle platforms through close alignment with truck manufacturers and industrial partners. This matters because scaling freight autonomy is not only a software challenge. It is also a manufacturing, maintenance, service, and support challenge.

That is why partnerships involving companies such as Plus, Daimler Truck, Volvo Autonomous Solutions, and other OEM-linked players deserve attention. Industrialization will play a major role in determining which autonomy programs remain pilot-stage efforts and which ones become durable components of freight networks.

What This Fragmentation Means

Taken together, these entry models point to a broader conclusion. Autonomous trucking is not arriving as a single unified capability. It is entering the market through multiple constrained domains, each built around a different balance of technical feasibility, operational complexity, and economic return.

That fragmentation is a sign of market maturation. The industry is moving away from generalized ambition and toward deployment strategies grounded in specific use cases. Long-haul autonomy targets the largest long-term opportunity. Middle-mile autonomy prioritizes repeatability and faster commercialization. Yard autonomy benefits from bounded environments. Hybrid models provide a bridge. OEM-integrated approaches provide the industrial foundation needed for scale.

What Supply Chain Leaders Should Watch

For supply chain leaders, the practical question is no longer whether autonomous trucking will arrive. It is where it will enter the network first, under what operating model, and with what operational implications.

In some cases, the answer will be a middle-mile loop between fixed facilities. In others, it will be yard movements, teleoperated support, or corridor-based long-haul deployment.

The larger point is architectural. These systems will not create value in isolation. They depend on data, orchestration, and coordination across the broader freight technology stack. In that sense, autonomous trucking is one more example of the broader shift toward connected, intelligent supply chain execution described in ARC’s recent work on AI architecture in logistics.

Where Tesla Fits

Tesla is better treated as an adjacent company to watch rather than a central example. The Tesla Semi is relevant to the future of freight equipment, but Tesla’s current positioning emphasizes electrification and supervised driver-assistance rather than a clearly defined autonomous freight deployment model.

Closing Perspective

Autonomous trucking will not arrive all at once. It will enter the supply chain through specific lanes, nodes, and operating models where the economics and constraints align.

The competitive advantage will not come from adopting autonomy broadly, but from understanding where it fits first and integrating it into the network ahead of competitors. That is where the category becomes operational, and where it begins to matter.

The post Autonomous Trucking Is Fragmenting Into Distinct Market Entry Models appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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