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Everstream Analytics Publishes 2026 Risk Report

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3 semaines ago

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Everstream Analytics Publishes 2026 Risk Report

Before exploring the insights of the 2026 Everstream Analytics Risk report, we should first assess the accuracy of last year’s forecasts. The Logistics Viewpoints analyst team previously examined the 2025 report, and analyst Steve Banker shared his analysis, which is available here.

Top 5 Predicted Risks Impacting Global Supply Chains:

5: Crackdown on Forced Labor
4: Rare Metals and Minerals on Lockdown
3: More Back Doors for Cybercrime
2: Geopolitical Instability with Increased Tariff Risk
1: Drowning in Climate Change

2025 was an unprecedented year for global supply chains. Everstream Analytics forecasted the top 5 risks with the greatest potential to impact supply chains. Some predictions didn’t materialize, and others were underprojected. Unfortunately, no one has a looking glass into the future, but we can learn from what happened last year and how that may materialize for this upcoming year.

Starting at the top of the list, the crackdown on forced labor did not materialize as anticipated. The United States main focus was on tariffs and equalizing its trade deficit. At the same time, the US gave out tariffs like a free sample at your local Costco. The European Union was facing internal battles on the rollout of its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. Eventually, it approved a reporting delay until 2029, with the expectation that the council would publish an updated list of the data the bill requires to be reported.

Resource Nationalism is when a government asserts greater control over its natural resources, such as oil, gas, and minerals. In April, the Chinese government issued an export control requiring suppliers to apply for new export licences for seven rare earth minerals and related products. Companies must navigate these complex licensing processes and potentially require approval for products made with Chinese technology. Adversely, in Trump’s OBBB tax bill, various requirements were included so that a company’s product would be unable to qualify for a tax credit if the product was made with Chinese materials tigheting the resources available to be used in a product and where they could be sourced from.

Cyberattacks were unfortunately prevalent in 2025 and are becoming more creative in their strategies of attack. In the last year, we saw third-party attacks on Salesforce, stealing their records, including those of Marks & Spencer and South Korea’s SK Telecom. In the last days of the year, a truck carrying $400k worth of Lobsters was hijacked at the warehouse before it could get to its destination of Costco.

Geopolitical instability was a driver of disruption in 2025, but not in the way predicted. Tariffs took center stage as the primary driver of global supply chain disruptions. The Houthi attacks that were prevalent in 2024 did not persist in 2025. Additionally, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025 helped mitigate escalation in the area, but not completely. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia persists and remains a high-level risk area. Geopolitical Instability remains a driver of interruption and risk, but in a changing form. Companies must remain vigilant and aware of ongoing areas of risk and plan for potential interruptions.

Climate change in 2025 supercharged natural disasters across the entire United States, including fires in the west, tornadoes in the Midwest, and widespread flooding in Texas. Southeast Asia and the Caribbean were pummeled by record breaking Typhoons and Hurricanes fueled by the abnormally warm waters. Climate change remains a consistently growing risk facing supply chains on a global scale.

Everstream concludes that while climate change remains a major risk, geopolitical instability should have been the top risk for 2025.

Top 4 2026 Risks Facing Global Supply Chains

4. Cyberattacks on Logistics
3. Critical Infrastructure Aging and Failure
2. Extreme Weather Intensification
1. Geopolitical Fragmentation and the Strategic Use of Trade Regulations

In 2025, Everstream Analytics reported 2,526 cyber incidents across all industries, almost doubling the number of events reported in 2024. State-sponsored attacks from China, Russia, and Iran targeted infrastructure on and off land.

A report from McKinsey & Company published last year estimated that globally, an investment of $106 trillion in Infrastructure would be required through 2040. $36 trillion of this investment is needed for the logistics and transport sector, including rail, ports, and roads. Aging infrastructure is extremely vulnerable to weather events, which exacerbates the issue, speeding up the degradation of these structures depended on for daily supply chain operations. Everstream predicts that at least one multibllion dollar disruption will take place in 2026 due to failing infrastructure.

From floods to droughts, extreme heat, and winter storms. Climate change is causing challenges for global supply chains, resulting in large financial losses, property damage, and prompting companies to rethink traditional processes. According to Climate Central in 2025, the U.S. experienced 23 billion-dollar weather disasters, causing upwards of $115 billion in damages and over 275 fatalities. Climate change is also impacting crops, driving up prices such as Cacao, which rose 300% in early 2025.

In the last year, we saw a sharp uptick in geopolitical events that impacted global supply chains, including tightening regulations on critical minerals, sweeping tariffs from the United States, and, most recently, the Venezuelan president being taken into custody. Alliances, broken promises, and conflicts are all results of recent geopolitical events, which heavily impact global supply chains in a multitude of ways. Treaties and partnerships can be made, but these agreements can take months to come to fruition and still leave companies fending for themselves until governing bodies can come to a decision. In 2026, companies must be ready navigate the new normal of constant chaos. Companies should equip themselves with teams, tools, and resources to analyze geopolitical events and how they may affect them and their supply chain.

In addition to staying competitive in your industry, companies face challenges from all fronts. Since 2020, supply chains have had to navigate unprecedented challenges and setbacks, which have made companies more resilient. It’s integral that organizations plan for the unknown; resilience is an action, and teams should have processes and resources in place to work through the impacts driven by the risks mentioned above.

For the full Everstream Analytics report, head to: https://www.everstream.ai/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Annual-Report-Everstream-Analytics.pdf

The post Everstream Analytics Publishes 2026 Risk Report appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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India–U.S. Trade Announcement Creates Strategic Options, Not Executable Change

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12 heures ago

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3 février 2026

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India–u.s. Trade Announcement Creates Strategic Options, Not Executable Change

The announcement by Donald Trump and Narendra Modi of an India–U.S. “trade deal” has drawn immediate attention from global markets. From a supply chain and logistics perspective, however, the more important observation is not the scale of the claims, but the lack of formal detail required for execution.

At this stage, what exists is a political statement rather than a completed trade agreement. For companies managing sourcing, manufacturing, transportation, and compliance across India–U.S. trade lanes, uncertainty remains the defining condition.

What Has Been Announced So Far

Based on public statements from the U.S. administration and reporting by CNBC and Al Jazeera, several points have been asserted:

U.S. tariffs on Indian goods would be reduced from an effective 50 percent to 18 percent

India would reduce tariffs and non tariff barriers on U.S. goods, potentially to zero

India would stop purchasing Russian oil and increase energy purchases from the United States

India would significantly increase purchases of U.S. goods across energy, agriculture, technology, and industrial sectors

Statements from the Indian government have been more limited. New Delhi confirmed that U.S. tariffs on Indian exports would be reduced to 18 percent, but it did not publicly confirm commitments related to Russian oil, agricultural market access, or large scale procurement from U.S. suppliers.

This divergence matters. In supply chain planning, commitments only become relevant when they are documented, scoped, and enforceable.

Why This Is Not Yet a Trade Agreement

From an operational standpoint, the announcement lacks several elements required to support planning and execution:

No published tariff schedules by HS code

No clarification on rules of origin

No definition of non tariff barrier reductions

No implementation timelines

No enforcement or dispute resolution mechanisms

Without these components, companies cannot reliably model landed cost, supplier risk, or network design changes.

By comparison, India’s recently announced trade agreement with the European Union includes detailed provisions covering market access, regulatory alignment, and investment protections. Those provisions are what allow supply chain leaders to translate trade policy into operational decisions. The U.S. announcement does not yet meet that threshold.

Implications for Supply Chains

Tariff Reduction Could Be Material if Formalized

An 18 percent tariff rate would improve India’s competitive position relative to regional peers such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. If implemented and sustained, this could support incremental sourcing from India in sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and light manufacturing.

For now, however, this remains a scenario rather than a planning assumption.

Energy Commitments Are the Largest Unknown

The claim that India would halt purchases of Russian oil has significant implications across energy, chemical, and manufacturing supply chains. Russian crude has been a key input for Indian refineries and downstream industrial production.

A shift away from that supply would affect energy input costs, tanker routing, port utilization, and U.S.–India crude and LNG trade volumes. None of these impacts can be assessed with confidence without confirmation from Indian regulators and implementing agencies.

Agriculture Remains Politically and Operationally Sensitive

U.S. officials have suggested expanded access for American agricultural exports. Historically, agriculture has been one of the most protected and politically sensitive sectors in India.

Any meaningful liberalization would raise questions around cold chain capacity, port infrastructure, domestic political resistance, and regulatory compliance. These factors introduce execution risk that supply chain leaders should consider carefully.

Compliance and Digital Trade Issues Are Unresolved

Several areas remain undefined:

Whether India will adjust pharmaceutical patent protections

Whether U.S. technology firms will receive exemptions from digital services taxes

Whether labor and environmental standards will be linked to market access

Each of these issues influences sourcing strategies, contract terms, and long term cost structures.

Practical Guidance for Supply Chain Leaders

Until formal documentation is released, a measured approach is warranted:

Avoid making structural network changes based on political announcements

Model tariff exposure using multiple scenarios rather than a single assumed outcome

Monitor customs and regulatory guidance rather than headline statements

Assess exposure to potential energy cost changes in Indian operations

Track implementation of the India–EU agreement as a near term reference point

Bottom Line

This announcement suggests a potential shift in the direction of India–U.S. trade relations, but it does not yet provide the clarity required for operational decision making.

For now, it creates strategic optionality rather than executable change.

Until tariff schedules, regulatory commitments, and enforcement mechanisms are formally published, supply chain and logistics leaders should treat this development as informational rather than actionable. In trade, execution begins only when the documentation exists.

The post India–U.S. Trade Announcement Creates Strategic Options, Not Executable Change appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Winter weather challenges, trade deals and more tariff threats – February 3, 2026 Update

Published

17 heures ago

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3 février 2026

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Winter weather challenges, trade deals and more tariff threats – February 3, 2026 Update

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Published: February 3, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 10% to $2,418/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 2% to $3,859/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 5% to $2,779/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) decreased 5% to $4,179/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 8% to $6.74/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 4% to $3.44/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 10% to $2.53/kg.

Analysis

Winter weather is complicating logistics on both sides of the Atlantic. Affected areas in the US, especially the southeast and southern midwest are still recovering from last week’s major storm and cold.

Storms in the North Atlantic slowed vessel traffic and disrupted or shutdown operations at several container ports across Western Europe and into the Mediterranean late last week. Transits resumed and West Med ports restarted operations earlier this week, but the disruptions have already caused significant delays, and weather is expected to worsen again mid-week.

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The resulting delays and disruptions could increase congestion levels at N. Europe ports, but ocean rates from Asia to both N. Europe and the Mediterranean nonetheless dipped 5% last week as the pre-Lunar New Year rush comes to an end. Daily rates this week are sliding further with prices to N. Europe now down to about $2,600/FEU and $3,800/FEU to the Mediterranean – from respective highs of $3,000/FEU and $4,900/FEU in January.

Transpacific rates likewise slipped last week as LNY nears, with West Coast prices easing 10% to about $2,400/FEU and East Coast rates down 5% to $3,850/FEU. West Coast daily prices have continued to slide so far this week, with rates dropping to almost $1,900/FEU as of Monday, a level last seen in mid-December.

Prices across these lanes are significantly lower than this time last year due partly to fleet growth. ONE identified overcapacity as one driver of Q3 losses last year, with lower volumes due to trade war frontloading the other culprit.

And trade war uncertainty has persisted into 2026.

India – US container volumes have slumped since August when the US introduced 50% tariffs on many Indian exports. Just this week though, the US and India announced a breakthrough in negotiations that will lower tariffs to 18% in exchange for a reduction in India’s Russian oil purchases among other commitments. President Trump has yet to sign an executive order lowering tariffs, and the sides have not released details of the agreement, but once implemented, container demand is expected to rebound on this lane.

Recent steps in the other direction include Trump issuing an executive order that enables the US to impose tariffs on countries that sell oil to Cuba, and threatening tariffs and other punitive steps targeting Canada’s aviation manufacturing.

The recent volatility of and increasing barriers to trade with the US since Trump took office last year are major drivers of the warmer relations and increased and diversified trade developing between other major economies. The EU signed a major free trade agreement with India last week just after finalizing a deal with a group of South American countries, and other countries like the UK are exploring improved ties with China as well.

In a final recent geopolitical development, Panama’s Supreme Court nullified Hutchinson Port rights to operate its terminals at either end of the Panama Canal. The Hong Kong company was in stalled negotiations to sell those ports following Trump’s objection to a China-related presence in the canal. Maersk’s APMTP was appointed to take over operations in the interim.

In air cargo, pre-LNY demand may be one factor in China-US rates continuing to rebound to $6.74/kg last week from about $5.50/kg in early January. Post the new year slump, South East Asia – US prices are climbing as well, up to almost $5.00/kg last week from $4.00/kg just a few weeks ago.

China – Europe rates dipped 4% to $3.44/kg last week, with SEA – Europe prices up 7% to more than $3.20/kg, and transatlantic rates up 10% to more than $2.50/kg, a level 25% higher than early this year.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Microsoft and the Operationalization of AI: Why Platform Strategy Is Colliding with Execution Reality

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2 jours ago

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2 février 2026

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Microsoft And The Operationalization Of Ai: Why Platform Strategy Is Colliding With Execution Reality

Microsoft has positioned itself as one of the central platforms for enterprise AI. Through Azure, Copilot, Fabric, and a rapidly expanding ecosystem of AI services, the company is not merely offering tools, it is proposing an operating model for how intelligence should be embedded across enterprise workflows.

For supply chain and logistics leaders, the significance of Microsoft’s strategy is less about individual features and more about how platform decisions increasingly shape where AI lives, how it is governed, and which decisions it ultimately influences.

From Cloud Infrastructure to Operating Layer

Historically, Microsoft’s role in supply chain technology centered on infrastructure and productivity software. Azure provided scalable compute and storage, while Office and collaboration tools supported planning and coordination. That boundary has shifted.

Microsoft is now positioning AI as a horizontal operating layer that spans data management, analytics, decision support, and execution. Azure AI services, Microsoft Fabric, and Copilot are designed to work together, reducing friction between data ingestion, model development, and business consumption.

The implication for operations leaders is subtle but important: AI is no longer something added to systems; it is increasingly embedded into the platforms those systems rely on.

Copilot and the Question of Decision Proximity

Copilot has become a focal point of Microsoft’s AI narrative. Positioned as an assistive layer across applications, Copilot aims to surface insights, generate recommendations, and automate routine tasks.

For supply chain use cases, the key question is not whether Copilot can generate answers, but where those answers appear in the decision chain. Insights delivered inside productivity tools can improve awareness and coordination, but operational value depends on whether recommendations are connected to execution systems.

This highlights a broader pattern: AI that remains advisory improves efficiency; AI that is embedded into workflows influences outcomes. Microsoft’s challenge is bridging that gap consistently across heterogeneous enterprise environments.

Microsoft Fabric and the Data Foundation Problem

Microsoft Fabric represents an attempt to simplify and unify the enterprise data landscape. By combining data engineering, analytics, and governance into a single platform, Microsoft is addressing one of the most persistent barriers to AI adoption: fragmented and inconsistent data.

For supply chain organizations, Fabric’s value lies in its potential to standardize event data across planning, execution, and visibility systems. However, unification does not eliminate the need for data discipline. Event quality, latency, and ownership remain operational issues, not platform features.

Fabric reduces friction, but it does not resolve governance by itself.

Integration with Existing Enterprise Systems

Microsoft’s AI strategy assumes coexistence with existing ERP, WMS, TMS, and planning platforms. Integration, rather than replacement, is the dominant pattern.

This creates both opportunity and risk. On one hand, Microsoft can act as a connective tissue across systems that were never designed to work together. On the other, loosely coupled integration increases dependence on interface stability and data consistency.

In execution-heavy environments, even small integration failures can cascade quickly. As AI becomes more embedded, integration reliability becomes a strategic concern.

Where AI Is Delivering Value, and Where It Isn’t

AI deployments tend to deliver value fastest in areas such as demand sensing, scenario analysis, reporting automation, and exception identification. These use cases align well with Microsoft’s strengths in analytics, collaboration, and scalable infrastructure.

Where value is harder to realize is in autonomous execution. Closed-loop decision-making that directly triggers operational action requires tighter coupling with execution systems and clearer decision ownership.

This reinforces a recurring theme: platform AI accelerates insight, but execution still depends on operating model design.

Constraints That Still Apply

Despite the breadth of Microsoft’s AI portfolio, familiar constraints remain. Data quality, security, compliance, and organizational readiness continue to limit outcomes. AI platforms do not eliminate the need for process clarity or decision accountability.

In some cases, the ease of deploying AI services can outpace an organization’s ability to absorb them operationally. This creates a risk of insight saturation without action.

Why Microsoft Matters to Supply Chain Leaders

Microsoft’s relevance lies in its ability to shape the default environment in which enterprise AI operates. Platform decisions made today influence data architectures, governance models, and user expectations for years.

For supply chain leaders, the key takeaway is not to adopt Microsoft’s AI stack wholesale, but to understand how platform-level AI affects where intelligence sits, how it flows, and who ultimately acts on it.

The next phase of AI adoption will not be defined solely by model performance. It will be defined by how effectively platforms like Microsoft’s translate intelligence into operational decisions under real-world constraints.

The post Microsoft and the Operationalization of AI: Why Platform Strategy Is Colliding with Execution Reality appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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