Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 5% to $2,757/FEU.   

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 7% to $4,033/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $2,978/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) stayed level at $4,851/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 4% to $5.91/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 6% to $3.64/kg. 

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $2.10/kg.

Analysis

Asia – Europe container rates remained steady but elevated last week – at about $3,000/FEU to Europe and $4,850/FEU to the Mediterranean – at levels last reached during the summer peak season as pre-Lunar New Year demand is now supporting the start of the year GRIs and carriers add capacity to service rising volumes. 

This seasonal demand bump started earlier than usual and so may already be at about its peak as daily rates this week cool slightly. Some carriers have nonetheless announced mid-month GRIs aiming at $4k/FEU for Europe and more than $5,500/FEU for Mediterranean routes.  The recent winter weather in Europe has caused disruptions at some key ports, which could help support rate levels. 

Rates on the transpacific have been on the rise since mid-December and continued to climb about 5% last week. Prices so far this week have remained stable at about $2,750/FEU to the West Coast and $4,000/FEU to the East Coast, though some forwarders report that carriers are already starting to offer discounts as space remains available.

The current rate bumps to North America would also be earlier than normal for pre-LNY, but are in line with the latest National Retail Federation US ocean import projections. The report estimates January volumes will increase 6% compared to December for the first month-on-month increase since July, though these volumes would be 5% lower than last January, with annual deficits expected through April. The NRF’s January report however, projects stronger 2026 volumes than its report from a month ago did, suggesting importers may be getting slightly more optimistic about post-holiday restocking strength.

In geopolitical developments, the US Supreme Court has until the end of June to issue a ruling on the legality of IEEPA tariffs, though there is speculation that a decision could come as soon as tomorrow.  It seems likely that SCOTUS will rule against the administration. Such a decision would raise significant question marks regarding whether or how quickly the White House might move to restore tariffs by other means, and what the decision will mean for tariff refunds.

The administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs on China were set at their current level until November of this year as part of the China-US deescalation back in November. Amid the turmoil in Iran though, President Trump released a statement on social media, though no executive order has been issued, saying 25% tariffs are in effect for any country that trades with Iran. If this move becomes law it could apply to China – Iran’s largest trading partner – and risk disrupting the China-US trade status quo.

The unrest in Iran could have other implications for freight as well. Iran has threatened to respond to a US attack with actions against US shipping interests. These steps could include closing the Strait of Hormuz. While closing the passage would be disruptive to oil flows, only 2% – 3% of global container volumes, according to Container Trade Statistics, transit the Strait, so disruptions to the container market would mostly be felt locally. 

A closure would cut off access to Dubai’s Port of Jebel Ali, a major transhipment hub between the Far East and points to the west, especially Europe, with a share moving from ocean to air in Dubai. Tranship volumes would need to be shifted elsewhere, possibly to South Asian hubs, which could cause some congestion and higher freight rates, but would not represent a major disruption to the overall container market. If protests do topple the regime, leaving the Houthis without Iranian support, the collapse could hasten a container traffic return to the Red Sea, where carriers like Maersk continue to test the waters. 

Last week’s storms and cold in Europe disrupted flights along with container ports, though operations are recovering this week. Air rates continue to cool post the December peak on the transpacific, with Freightos Air Index China – US prices below $6.00/kg for the first time since October, and prices from South East Asia slumping below $4.00/kg. 

While transpacific volumes fell sharply following US de minimis suspensions in May, capacity and volumes have gradually recovered. This rebound is driven partly by a recovery in e-commerce volumes, but mostly by general cargo growth from China and South East Asia – especially Vietnam – as demand for AI hardware and trade war shifts in electronics sourcing push more volumes to the air.