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Ex-Asia ocean rates climb on GRIs, despite slowing demand – October 22, 2025 Update

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Ex-Asia ocean rates climb on GRIs, despite slowing demand – October 22, 2025 Update

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October 22, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 18% to $1,687/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2% to $3,071/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 13% to $1,975/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 1% to $2,147/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices stayed level at $5.34/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 1% to $3.97/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly increased 5% to $1.78/kg.

Analysis

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia following the sharp increase in trade tensions between the countries and just ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in S. Korea at the end of the month.

The White House expressed optimism that the US and China will deescalate from recent steps which included China increasing export controls on rare earth metals and President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese exports starting November 1st. Reports this week also indicate that the US and India are nearing a trade deal that would reduce the US’s current 50% tariffs on Indian exports to around 15%.

In other trade war developments, President Trump signed a proclamation that will impose 10%-25% tariffs on heavy trucks and parts starting November 1st. Alongside this tariff expansion though, the new law also increased tariff offsets for automakers. This move follows an order last month which included a long list of tariff exemptions and authorized some federal agencies to issue tariff exemptions independently.

The past week also saw examples of geopolitical drama directly relevant to the ocean freight market. A US threat to sanction – including via port call fees – countries that vote for an IMO net zero framework may have contributed to the vote being postponed until next year.

And though there are no reports of vessels paying USTR port call fees yet – only one China-built vessel is scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles this week – a US-flagged container ship was charged $1.7m to dock in Shanghai as China’s reciprocal fees also went into effect. Like on the transpacific eastbound, carriers are shifting their deployment of liable vessels to other lanes to avoid the surcharges at China’s ports.

The 145% US tariffs on Chinese goods from early April to mid-May drove a sharp drop in China-US ocean volumes, and a November 1st 100% tariff would likely do the same. But with frontloading to date and November a slow month for ocean freight, there would likely be a smaller volume drop compared to April-May.

Despite reports of lagging demand as the US container market moves further into an early slow season, carrier mid-month GRI introductions, likely helped by tighter capacity reductions, are pushing Asia – N. America rates up. Transpacific prices to the West Coast increased 18% last week from a year to date low of about $1,400/FEU the week before to about $1,700/FEU, with daily rates this week above the $2,000/FEU mark so far. Daily rates to the East Coast of $3,357/FEU are more than $300/FEU higher than a week ago.

Asia – Europe prices climbed 13% last week to about $2,000/FEU on October GRIs as well, with daily rates this week approaching $2,300/FEU. Daily rates to the Mediterranean are also at about $2,300/FEU for a $200/FEU increase compared to the last couple weeks. Price increases on Europe lanes may be partially supported by port congestion made worse by labor disruptions in both Rotterdam and Antwerp last week – though the parties have now settled the Rotterdam dispute and paused Antwerp strikes for at least the next ten days.

These rate increases have pushed prices back to about September levels. But rates climbing during low-demand periods for both Asia-Europe and the transpacific has many observers skeptical that prices will remain elevated, though carriers will attempt November GRIs as well.

Air cargo on the other hand is about to enter the typical East-West peak season period. There are reports that President Trump’s November 1st tariff threat is sparking some frontloading out of China. But Freightos Air Index China-US rates remained level last week at $5.34/kg and are at about $5.40/kg so far this week, possibly reflecting a quick addition of capacity to the lane as more demand materialized.

Continued Asia – Europe volume growth driven by Chinese B2C e-commerce is also being accompanied by capacity growth, keeping China – Europe rates about level with last year, with prices stable at about the $4.00/kg level last week and this. A massive fire at Bangladesh’s Dhaka airport over the weekend destroyed the airport’s cargo center, suspending flights and causing a major setback for the region’s garment trade during its peak season. Flights resumed by Sunday night, with air cargo rates so far unaffected.

Discover Freightos Enterprise

Freightos Terminal: Real-time pricing dashboards to benchmark rates and track market trends.

Procure: Streamlined procurement and cost savings with digital rate management and automated workflows.

Rate, Book, & Manage: Real-time rate comparison, instant booking, and easy tracking at every shipment stage.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post Ex-Asia ocean rates climb on GRIs, despite slowing demand – October 22, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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Global Energy Regulation Round Up Q1 2026

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Global Energy Regulation Round Up Q1 2026

The Global Energy Regulation Round Up is a quarterly report covering energy regulations worldwide. It is organized into three regions: North America, the European Union, and Asia. The report highlights policies and regulations related to energy, decarbonization, utilities, trade, and sustainability. It serves as a resource for information on current or upcoming energy regulations that could affect businesses. Governments use energy regulations to pursue a range of objectives, which can have both positive and negative effects on businesses. This installment of the report is for the first quarter of the year, from January 1st to March 31st, 2026.

Key Takeaways

Environmental deregulation on the federal level was the biggest trend that emerged from the United States in Q1 of 2026.
At the start of the year, two significant reporting policies from the European Union took effect, and businesses recently received some relief thanks to an omnibus simplification package that was approved.
China has approved a landmark environmental code that brings together more than 10 existing laws, targets pollution, and formalizes its carbon market.

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The post Global Energy Regulation Round Up Q1 2026 appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Q1 2026 Supply Chain Trends: Costs Rise, AI Moves Into Execution

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Q1 2026 Supply Chain Trends: Costs Rise, Ai Moves Into Execution

Costs are rising again, but the more important shift is where decisions are being made. AI is moving out of planning and into execution, changing how supply chains respond in real time.

The Cost Floor Is Rising Again

The expectation heading into 2026 was stabilization. That is not what Q1 delivered. Transportation costs are firming, energy markets are volatile, labor remains tight, and financing costs are higher than in recent years. Across most networks, the cost floor has reset at a higher level, and early signals suggest this is not a short-term spike but a more durable shift in the operating environment.

Supply chains are now carrying more inventory in selected nodes, building redundancy into sourcing strategies, and managing greater execution complexity across transportation and fulfillment. Each of these decisions reflects a rational response to recent disruption, but each also adds structural cost. At the same time, service expectations have not relaxed. If anything, they continue to tighten, creating sustained pressure between cost control and service performance that is unlikely to ease in the near term.

Volatility Is Now Continuous

Disruption is no longer episodic. It is persistent and often overlapping. Trade flows remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, energy pricing continues to react to regional instability, and weather variability is still affecting transportation reliability across modes. What has changed is not simply the presence of disruption, but the frequency with which multiple disruptions occur at the same time.

This environment requires faster response cycles and closer coordination across functions. The traditional model of planning in defined cycles and reacting during execution is increasingly misaligned with operating reality. Organizations are being forced to compress decision timelines and reduce reliance on manual coordination, particularly in areas where delays translate directly into cost or service degradation.

AI Is Moving Out of Planning

Over the past several years, most AI investment has been concentrated in planning functions such as forecasting, demand sensing, and network design. These use cases remain important, but the center of gravity is beginning to shift. AI is now being applied more directly within execution environments, including transportation routing, inventory rebalancing, exception management, and aspects of supplier selection.

This represents a meaningful transition from advisory systems to execution support. A forecasting model can improve the quality of a plan, but it does not directly change outcomes once conditions begin to shift. Execution-oriented systems, by contrast, operate within the flow of events, influencing decisions as conditions evolve. That distinction is becoming more relevant as volatility increases and planning assumptions degrade more quickly.

Execution Is Becoming the Constraint

Execution environments are operating at higher speed and with less tolerance for delay. Decisions made in transportation affect inventory positions, inventory decisions affect customer service outcomes, and supplier decisions propagate through the network in ways that are often not immediately visible. While most organizations have improved visibility into these dynamics, visibility alone is no longer sufficient.

The constraint is increasingly decision latency. The time required to recognize a disruption, align stakeholders across functions, and execute a coordinated response is now a primary driver of both cost and service performance. In many cases, delays are not caused by a lack of information, but by the time required to interpret that information and act on it across disconnected systems and teams.

For a structured view of how AI is being applied to execution-level decisions, the ARC analysis provides additional detail.

Download: AI in the Supply Chain — Architecting the Future of Logistics

Fragmented Systems Are the Limiting Factor

Most supply chain technology environments remain fragmented, with ERP, TMS, WMS, and planning systems operating on different data models, update cycles, and integration patterns. Even when each system performs as intended, the combined environment often responds slowly because coordination across systems is limited.

The issue is not the absence of data or visibility, but the ability to translate that visibility into coordinated action. When systems are not aligned, decisions are delayed, duplicated, or suboptimal. This fragmentation becomes more problematic as execution speed increases and the cost of delay becomes more pronounced.

What Leading Organizations Are Doing

Leading organizations are focusing less on expanding reporting capabilities and more on reducing execution latency. This includes increasing the level of automation in exception handling, enabling systems to trigger actions rather than simply generate alerts, and tightening the integration between planning and execution layers.

In practice, this can take several forms. Retail organizations are reallocating inventory between distribution centers based on current demand signals rather than static plans. Transportation teams are adjusting routes dynamically in response to congestion, cost changes, and service constraints. Procurement teams are modifying supplier allocations as new risk indicators emerge. These approaches are not fully autonomous, but they materially reduce response time and improve operational consistency.

The Role of AI in This Shift

AI is not replacing core enterprise systems. Instead, it is being applied across them, acting as a layer that interprets signals, prioritizes actions, and supports or initiates responses. In more advanced environments, AI is beginning to coordinate decisions across functional domains, helping to reduce the disconnect between planning and execution.

This is where architectures that support shared context and access to domain-specific knowledge begin to matter. As AI systems move closer to execution, their ability to incorporate prior events, current conditions, and relevant operational constraints becomes increasingly important.

What to Watch

Several developments are likely to define the next phase. Execution-level decision support will continue to expand, placing pressure on integration architectures to support faster and more consistent data movement. Exception management will become more central to operational performance, as the ability to resolve issues quickly becomes more valuable than the ability to predict them in isolation. At the same time, governance and auditability will become more important as AI systems take on a more active role in decision-making.

Where This Leaves Supply Chain Leaders

The operating model is shifting. Planning remains important, but competitive advantage is increasingly tied to execution speed, coordination across functions, and the ability to respond effectively under uncertainty. Organizations that continue to rely on manual coordination and disconnected systems are likely to face increasing cost and service pressure.

Those that reduce decision latency and improve coordination across functions will be better positioned to manage both cost and service performance in a more volatile environment.

A Practical Next Step

The ARC white paper provides a structured view of how these architectures are being implemented in practice.

Download: AI in the Supply Chain — Architecting the Future of Logistics with A2A, MCP, and Graph-Enhanced Reasoning

Final Thought

Supply chains are not becoming more predictable. They are being required to respond more quickly and with greater coordination. That shift is now visible in how decisions are being made.

The post Q1 2026 Supply Chain Trends: Costs Rise, AI Moves Into Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Air rates climbing again, as fuel costs rise – March 24, 2026 Update

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Air rates climbing again, as fuel costs rise – March 24, 2026 Update

Published: March 24, 2026

Updated: March 31, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) stayed level.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) stayed level.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 9%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 25%.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices stayed level.

Analysis

The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal, though it has increased in the last week as Iran announced it is allowing non-enemy vessels to pass.

Container traffic to the Gulf States has found alternate but ultimately insufficient routes. Most carriers are relying on ports on the west coast of India as tranship hubs and shuttle services to accessible ports in Oman and the UAE – with some also using north Red Sea transits to Jeddah, especially for volumes out of Europe – and road transport on to the final destinations.

But these port and road alternatives are not designed to handle these types of volumes, and in addition to the expense – Freightos Terminal shows Shanghai – Jebel Ali rates are now above $7,000/FEU – the routes are being plagued with delays and congestion. Vessels arriving at the UAE’s Khor Fakkan port are reportedly facing more than week-long waits for a berth with some being turned away, and truck shortages are delaying road transport as well.

But even as we approach a month since the start of the war, the container market beyond the Gulf region has not faced operational disruptions. And so far, container rates on the major lanes haven’t increased much either, with transpacific prices up just 3% last week to $2,100/FEU to the West Coast and 4% to $3,100/FEU to the East Coast. Asia – Europe rates were unchanged at $2,870/FEU to N. Europe and $4,264/FEU to the Mediterranean.

Carriers have announced emergency fuel surcharges across lanes ranging from $200 to $500/FEU most of which will only go into effect in the coming days. They have also announced a long list of PSSs and GRIs – most set for early April – for non-Gulf lanes, including about $2,000/FEU rate increases for Asia – Europe lanes, though CMA CGM recently reduced its increase by about $700/FEU.

So container rates may be set to climb on across the board fuel surcharges soon, and possibly spike more significantly via other rate increases on some lanes to start April too. But there are some signs of pushback against the Strait of Hormuz closure driving rates up too far on non-impacted lanes.

Besides shipper concerns that contracted BCOs who pay the emergency fuel surcharges may be double charged when BAFs are updated for Q3, the US FMC just rejected an early-March request by some carriers to waive the 30-day notice period for fuel surcharges because carriers did not provide data showing that the rate increases were reasonably related to cost increases. Indian authorities have also opened a streamlined channel to hear complaints of predatory logistics pricing.

Carriers – after a tepid post-Lunar New Year period from a volume perspective – are also facing the challenge of slumping demand as slow season begins. Rate behavior in the next few weeks then, should reflect which rate increases carriers try to introduce, and their degrees of success.

In air cargo, Gulf carriers continue their gradual schedule recovery. Qatar Airways – whose Doha operations were largely suspended since the start of the war as airspace was closed – started a partial reopening this week including about forty five weekly freighter flights, alongside many passenger services as Qatari airspace starts to reopen. The UAE began reopening its airspace soon after the war began, with Emirates Skycargo announcing more than 150 scheduled freighters for this week.

But despite the continued Gulf carrier capacity recovery and European and Asian carriers adding Asia – Europe flights, capacity out of the Middle East, and Asia – Europe tonnage are still much lower than a year ago.

Air rates which had spiked on many Middle East lanes, and Asia – Europe routes early in the war – as capacity out of the Gulf dropped and volumes shifted to direct Asia – Europe services – had leveled off last week. This week though, rates on some lanes have started climbing again, possibly reflecting the first reports of backlogs developing across major hubs, and updated fuel surcharges as fuel costs continue to rise. South East Asia – Europe prices up 17% since last week to more than $5.00/kg, China – Europe rates up 23% to $5.00/kg too, China – US prices up 9% to $7.43/kg and Europe – Middle East rates up 14% to $3.18/kg.ant factor to capacity and rate levels.

Discover Freightos Enterprise

Freightos Terminal: Real-time pricing dashboards to benchmark rates and track market trends.

Procure: Streamlined procurement and cost savings with digital rate management and automated workflows.

Rate, Book, & Manage: Real-time rate comparison, instant booking, and easy tracking at every shipment stage.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post Air rates climbing again, as fuel costs rise – March 24, 2026 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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