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The 2025 Trade War Impact on Small Businesses: Rising Costs and an Uncertain Future

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The 2025 Trade War Impact on Small Businesses: Rising Costs and an Uncertain Future

September 10, 2025

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SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS: Nearly 3/4 of small importers report significant cost increases from tariffs, with half reducing shipments entirely. 44% face cost spikes of 20%+ while 52% expect weaker holiday sales, according to a new Freightos/Clearit survey of 390+ North American businesses.

This snapshot reveals just the surface of how deeply the ongoing trade tensions are affecting small and medium-sized businesses. As tariff policies become clearer, the outlook grows increasingly concerning for these companies. Below, we explore the comprehensive findings from our latest survey and what they mean for businesses navigating the uncertain trade landscape in 2025.

Businesses Under Pressure: The Widening Effects of Trade Disruption

A recent Freightos/Clearit survey of 390+ North American importers paints a concerning picture of the trade war’s ongoing impact on businesses. Companies are feeling the squeeze, with significant disruptions to their operations so far this year. And now that tariff policies are becoming clearer, the outlook on costs and sales is increasingly worrying, as most respondents believe the worst may be yet to come.

72% of businesses reported moderate to significant increases in landed costs and nearly 50% have reduced shipping activity due to tariffs already in place; over half expect weaker sales as a result. Importers say the 90-day extension of 30% US tariffs on China will not lead to a significant freight rebound this year for several reasons, including earlier frontloading and the status quo already pricing some shippers out.

The findings suggest broader economic consequences, including:

Diminished international trade relationships

Decreased consumer strength

Potentially existential threats for some businesses, especially SMBs

One importer summed it up as follows: “The tariffs combined with the sinking value of the dollar have created a 30% increase in costs just in a few months. Devastating to our bottom line.”

Note that this survey is the third in a series of surveys conducted across small importers. For previous versions, please see here and here.

Tariff Business Impact: Costs Rising, Shipments Falling

This year has been punctuated by tariff announcements including the “Liberation Day” 10 % universal tariff on April 5, country-specific reciprocal tariffs that were announced on April 2 and later paused twice, first until July 8, then again until August 7, when they finally went live. Many of these announcements were provided with what businesses felt were insufficient warning, leading to uncertainty.

Clarity…and Concern

Now, as recent trade agreements and additional sectoral tariffs are clearer, most (56%) businesses report more concern about negative impacts than they had due to earlier tariff changes.

This worry for the future is particularly striking when taking into account how dramatically their businesses have already been impacted:

Widespread disruption: 84% said frequent tariff changes have been disruptive or very disruptive to business.

Substantial cost increases: 72% reported that tariffs have already increased their costs by at least 5%. A shocking 44% say costs have climbed by 20% or more.

Reduced shipping: This has already led to reduced import volumes from small businesses; 50% of businesses have reduced shipment volumes due to higher costs.

Growing concern: 57% are more concerned about tariffs negatively impacting their business than they were earlier in the year. For comparison, when we asked this question in May, only 31% were more concerned than they were earlier in the year.

Consumer weakness: Concern about the downfunnel impact of weaker demand is growing. Slightly more than half (52%) expected weaker back-to-school and holiday sales than last year, compared to only 35% who had expected lower Memorial Day sales due to tariffs when asked back in May.

International standing: Whether the tariffs are removed or not, there could be long-lasting consequences. Some 60% think the trade war has weakened the standing of US businesses as trading partners.

How am I supposed to stay in business if I have $400 tariffs and fees on a $700 order that the client won’t pay?”

– Small importer reporting 20%+ cost increases

Freight Impact: Scrambling for Strategy

Rapid changes are also sending shippers scrambling for strategies to help mitigate the trade war’s impact, taking action such as accelerating orders, changing production centers, or even cancelling. Beyond the 50% who have reduced shipment volumes due to higher costs, about 15% each have:

Pulled holiday orders forward

Paused or delayed holiday orders

Canceled manufacturing mid-order

Moved some sourcing to US

We paused for a period of time when [tariffs were] initially announced. Now we feel there is some stability with the pauses being extended, but before that the uncertainty was so high that we decided to wait to see what would happen.

– Furniture importer

Adapting to these changes has not been one-size-fits-all – businesses are reaching for anything that works to manage the unpredictability.

90-Day China Tariff Extension: Limited Relief

In May and June, the initial postponement of China tariffs led to a brief spike in shipments, as importers accelerated their shipments to beat the tariffs. This front-loading, however, was quite short-lived, as demonstrated in the chart below:

The recent postponement did not have a similar effect.

While some importers said the recent extension of the 30% US tariff on Chinese imports is allowing them to restart shipments, overall, the extension is not triggering a second peak season wave. Instead, it’s having diverse effects on different businesses:

Many are unaffected due to prior frontloading or because sectoral tariffs are a bigger challenge

Others expected the 30% to remain in place and have continued shipping as usual

Some are already priced out by 30% baseline tariffs

As one importer said: “We had to buy more than usual while we could get product at a lower price. 2025 costs will be higher than usual with a greater risk of deadstock”

Another described uncertainty that prompted them to restructure their entire supply chain: “Most if not all my importing has moved out of China. I’m too worried tariffs could switch from one day to the next even though there is a 90-day extension.”

Analysis and Going Forward

The survey results paint a picture of businesses caught in an economic crossfire, with potential ripple effects that could reshape supply chains and trade relationships for years to come.

Long Term Structural Changes Ahead

“The survey shows that the trade war has already negatively impacted many US importers, and that expectations of new or expanded tariffs and the duties applied under the trade deals of the last few weeks has shippers bracing for possibly more severe challenges to business moving forward,” says Judah Levine, Freightos Head of Research. The data suggests we’re witnessing not just temporary disruption but potentially long-term structural changes to international sourcing and pricing strategies.

Impossible To Forecast or Plan

Adam Lewis, President of Clearit Customs points to the particularly hard hit SMBs have taken: “With still so much uncertainty in the trade environment, this survey makes one thing clear: Unfortunately, small and medium sized businesses are bearing the brunt of the trade war. Unlike larger corporations, they don’t have the same insulation or sophistication to absorb frequent tariff changes, currency swings, and rising costs. The unknowns have been the most damaging, making it nearly impossible to forecast, budget, or protect margins.”

Looking ahead, the trade landscape could continue to stabilize in coming months with more agreements reaching finalization. However, the combination of disrupted supply chains, weakened consumer sentiment, and eroded international relationships creates a challenging environment that will likely require businesses to maintain flexibility in sourcing, pricing, and inventory management for the foreseeable future.

Devorah Wolf

Content Marketing Lead

When freight gets complicated, Devorah Wolf, Freightos’ digital freight aficionado, swoops in to clarify the nitty-gritty of global trade with blogs, guides, videos, and newsletters for every shipper – from beginner to expert. She’s so excited about shipping that most of her clothing is imported. But in freight’s defense, that’s basically true about everyone.

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post The 2025 Trade War Impact on Small Businesses: Rising Costs and an Uncertain Future appeared first on Freightos.

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Walmart AI Pricing Patents Signal Shift Toward Real-Time Retail Execution

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Walmart Ai Pricing Patents Signal Shift Toward Real Time Retail Execution

Walmart’s new patents and digital shelf rollout point to a more tightly integrated model linking demand forecasting, pricing, and store-level execution.

Walmart has secured two patents related to automated pricing and demand forecasting, drawing attention to how large retailers are evolving their pricing and execution capabilities.

One patent, System and Method for Dynamically Updating Prices on an E-Commerce Platform, covers a system that can dynamically update online prices based on changing market conditions. A second, Walmart Pricing and Demand Forecasting Patent Classification, relates to demand forecasting technology designed to estimate what customers will buy and recommend pricing accordingly. At the same time, Walmart is expanding digital shelf labels across its U.S. stores, replacing paper labels with centrally managed electronic displays.

Individually, none of these elements are new. Retailers have long used forecasting models, pricing tools, and store execution processes. What is notable is the combination.

Walmart now has three capabilities aligned:

Demand forecasting tied to predictive models

Price recommendation based on that demand

Store-level infrastructure capable of rapid execution

That combination reduces the operational friction historically associated with pricing in physical retail.

Pricing Moves Closer to Execution

Traditional store pricing changes required coordination across multiple steps: analysis, approval, printing, distribution, and manual shelf updates. That process introduced delay and inconsistency.

Digital shelf labels materially change that constraint. Prices can be updated centrally and executed across stores with significantly less manual intervention.

This does not change the underlying logic of pricing decisions. Retailers have always adjusted prices based on demand, competition, and margin targets. What changes is the speed and consistency of execution.

As a result, pricing moves closer to real-time operational control.

Implications for Supply Chain Operations

Pricing is not an isolated commercial function. It directly influences demand patterns, inventory flow, replenishment timing, and markdown activity.

When pricing becomes faster and more responsive, those linkages tighten.

Three implications are clear:

1. Increased Execution Speed
Retailers can align pricing decisions more quickly with current demand conditions, reducing lag between signal and action.

2. Stronger Dependence on Forecast Accuracy
When pricing recommendations are driven by predictive models, the quality of demand sensing becomes more consequential. Forecast errors can propagate more quickly into sales and inventory outcomes.

3. Closer Coupling of Merchandising and Supply Chain
Pricing decisions influence demand. Demand impacts inventory, replenishment, and store execution. Faster pricing cycles compress the distance between these functions.

Centralization and Control

Walmart has positioned its digital shelf label rollout as an efficiency and accuracy initiative. Centralized price management improves consistency between systems and store execution while reducing labor tied to manual updates.

That positioning aligns with the operational realities of large-scale retail. At Walmart’s footprint, even small improvements in execution efficiency translate into material cost and accuracy gains.

At the same time, the shift toward algorithm-supported pricing introduces standard enterprise control requirements. Organizations need clear governance around how pricing recommendations are generated, reviewed, and executed, particularly as systems become more automated.

A Broader Technology Pattern

Walmart’s patents are best understood as part of a broader shift in supply chain and retail technology.

AI and advanced analytics are moving closer to operational decision points. Forecasting models are no longer confined to planning environments; they are increasingly connected to systems that can act.

In this case, that connection spans:

Demand sensing

Price recommendation

Store-level execution

The result is a more tightly integrated operating model in which commercial decisions and supply chain execution are linked through software.

What This Signals

The significance of Walmart’s move is not tied to public debate over surge pricing scenarios. The underlying development is structural.

Retailers now have the ability to connect demand forecasting, pricing logic, and execution infrastructure into a faster decision loop.

For supply chain leaders, that represents a clear direction:

Execution is becoming more digital, more centralized, and more tightly coupled to predictive models.

The companies that benefit will be those that can align forecasting, pricing, and operational execution within a controlled, coordinated system.

The post Walmart AI Pricing Patents Signal Shift Toward Real-Time Retail Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Supply Chain and Logistics News March 16th-19th 2026

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Supply Chain And Logistics News March 16th 19th 2026

This week’s installment of Supply Chain and Logistics news includes stories about record increases in oil prices, Rivian’s autonomous taxis, and much more. Firstly, the Trump administration has issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old regulation that requires goods moved between US ports to be transported by US-built vessels, etc. Additionally, this week Uber & Rivian announced a partnership for Rivian to build 50,000 autonomous robotaxis by 2031 with over a billion dollars in investment from Uber. Schneider Electric and EcoVadis announced a partnership to target emissions in the health care sector. Lastly, DHL announces 10 warehousing sites to be used for data center manufacturing capacity, and Mind Robotics raises 100 million in series A funding.

Your Biggest Stories in Supply Chain and Logistics here:

Trump Administration Issues Pause on Century-old Maritime Law to Ease Oil Prices

The Trump administration has issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act. This century-old regulation typically requires goods moved between US ports to be carried on vessels that are US-built, US-owned, and US-crewed. However, with oil prices surging toward $100 a barrel due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, the suspension aims to ease logistics for vital commodities like oil, natural gas, and fertilizer. While the move is intended to lower costs at the pump and support farmers during the spring planting season, it has sparked a debate between those seeking immediate economic relief and domestic maritime unions concerned about the long-term impact on American shipping and labor.

Uber and Rivian Partner to Deploy up to 50,000 Fully Autonomous Robotaxis

Uber and Rivian have announced a massive strategic partnership that signals a major shift in the future of autonomous logistics and urban mobility. Under the terms of the deal, Uber is set to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, a move specifically tied to the achievement of key autonomous performance milestones. The primary focus of this collaboration is the deployment of a specialized fleet of fully autonomous R2 robotaxis, with an initial order of 10,000 vehicles and an option to scale up to 50,000 units. From a supply chain perspective, this represents a significant commitment to vertical integration; Rivian is managing the end-to-end production of the vehicle, the compute stack, and the sensor suite, including its in-house RAP1 AI chips, while Uber provides the scaled platform for deployment. Commercial operations are slated to begin in San Francisco and Miami in 2028, eventually expanding to 25 cities globally by 2031.

Schneider Electric and EcoVadis Announce Partnership to Decarbonize Global Healthcare Supply Chains

Schneider Electric, a major player in the digital transformation of energy management and automation, and EcoVadis, a provider of business sustainability ratings, have announced a strategic partnership aimed at accelerating decarbonization within the healthcare industry. “Energize” is a collective initiative to engage pharmaceutical industry suppliers in climate action. The collaboration focuses on addressing Scope 3 emissions, those generated within a company’s value chain, which often represent the largest portion of a healthcare organization’s carbon footprint. By combining Schneider Electric’s expertise in energy procurement and sustainability consulting with EcoVadis’s supplier monitoring and rating platform, the partnership provides a structured pathway for pharmaceutical and medical device companies to transition their global suppliers toward renewable energy.

Mind Robotics, a Rivian spin-off, raises $500 million in Series A Funding

RJ Scaringe, CEO of Rivian, is positioning his new $2 billion spin-off, Mind Robotics, as a technological solution to the chronic shortage of manufacturing labor in the Western world. By developing a “foundation model” that acts as an industrial brain alongside specialized mechatronic bodies, the company aims to move beyond the rigid, fixed-motion plans of traditional robotics toward systems capable of human-like reasoning and adaptation. Scaringe emphasizes that while these machines must perform with human-level dexterity, they don’t necessarily need to be humanoid in form; instead, the focus is on creating a data-driven “flywheel” within Rivian’s own facilities to lower production costs and help domestic manufacturing remain globally competitive.

DHL Expands North American Logistics Infrastructure Amid Growing Global Demand for Data Center Logistics Services

DHL is significantly scaling its data center logistics (DCL) footprint in North America, announcing the addition of 10 dedicated sites totaling over seven million square feet of warehousing capacity. This expansion is a direct response to the explosive demand for AI-driven infrastructure and the specific needs of hyperscale and colocation data center operators. By offering specialized services like rack pre-configuration, white-glove handling of sensitive IT hardware, and warehouse-to-site transportation, DHL is positioning itself as an end-to-end partner in a sector where 85% of operators express a preference for a single logistics provider. This move not only addresses the logistical complexities of moving high-value components like GPUs and cooling systems across global borders but also underscores the critical role of integrated supply chains in maintaining the build speed of the digital backbone.

Song of the Week:

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How to Capitalize Quickly to Address Hyperconnected Industrial Demand

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How To Capitalize Quickly To Address Hyperconnected Industrial Demand

This first in a blog series offers a review of discussion that occurred during ARC Advisory Group’s 2026 Industry Leadership Forum. Specifically, it details a keynote conversation held with senior executives from Rolls-Royce, BTX Precision, and MxD.

The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-Time Production

Industrial leaders have been talking about tearing down workflow and data silos for decades. Yet here we are again. For most, the reality is that most operations and supply chains today typically don’t indicate much progress. A few leaders have figured out how to use digital tools to scale and build pathways forward, a whopping 12.9% according to our latest data (yes, that’s sarcasm). However, even as they struggle to coordinate, orchestrate, and innovate across their operations and enterprise, much less tightly collaborate outside their four walls. In a digital world, this continued capability gap, the inability to closely link market signals to responsive production and external supply chains, is very quickly becoming a liability.

Recently, at the 30th Annual ARC Industry Leadership Forum in Orlando, I had the privilege of leading a keynote discussion entitled The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-Time Production. As part of that, I moderated an excellent conversation that included Global Commodity Executive Greg Davidson of Rolls-Royce, CEO Berardino Baratta of MxD, and CRO Jamie Goettler of BTX Precision.

In this four-part series, we will explore that conversation fully, digging into how the “fabric of market demand” has fundamentally changed, and why structural modernization, both human and technological, is no longer just an option. It is an industrial imperative that will increasingly determine who wins in disrupted markets.

Why Legacy Workflow Will Actually Get Modernized

If we examine the present through the lens of the past, the fundamental laws of supply and demand haven’t really changed. What has changed is the hyperconnectivity of the world and our compressed time to both reward and volatility.

The hard truth is that legacy linear workflows simply do not work in hyperconnected, digitally-driven environments, which are non-linear by nature. As our industrial environments become more digital, they naturally open up countless new ways for how things can get done and how risk can enter the organization. As a result, disruption has shifted from a rare event to a fairly continuous and pervasive reality. In this new reality, responsiveness differentiates you from the competition, and lag time kills.

To survive and thrive in non-linear environments, tighter, integrated ecosystems are required, where silos are actively torn down or redesigned so that barriers to value can be continuously identified and quickly eliminated. At the core, this concept is unfolding around data access, contextualization, and sharing. It provides the urgency behind the need for building industrial data fabrics.

This rewiring certainly extends beyond operations and enterprise processes, enabling the entirety of the supply chain to be judged on its collective responsiveness to the market, all the way down to the individual company level. In this scenario, data can quickly point out laggards who limit value. As the orchestrators of these supply chains identify these limitations on value, they quickly break off and discard the connection and move on without these weak links.

Pillars of the New Fabric of Demand

To achieve necessary level of operational and supply chain responsiveness, the roles of every entity within an ecosystem must be rethought. In the subsequent three blogs of this series, we will take a deep dive into the three distinct pillars that make up this modern architecture, but I’ll begin by laying them out here:

The Market Signal is the catalyst of the entire ecosystem. It dictates the “what” and the “when,” defining what value, success and risk look like in real-time. In blog 2, I’ll explore how to move from reactive assumptions to proactively capturing the market signals that actually matter.
The Demand Architect is moving beyond traditional order-taking. The Demand Architect designs and orchestrates the ecosystem, aligning external partners as true extensions of the enterprise. In blog 3, I’ll discuss the structural agility required to lead this response, rather than just manage a process.
The Agile Partner is the engine of execution. The Agile Partner links supply chain dynamics directly to the shop floor, differentiating themselves through their responsiveness to the market signal. In the final blog in the series, I’ll tackle how data transparency and trust become technical requirements, not just buzzwords, without exposing mission-critical IP.

Building the Modern Industrial Enterprise

Legacy workflows cannot survive in a non-linear world. Industrial organizations must re-architect operations and ecosystems for real-time responsiveness and secure, transparent collaboration. To do so, they will need to:

Improve the measurement of responsiveness: Efficiency and margin-squeezing are important, but they aren’t game-changers. Your competitive edge now relies on how quickly you can adapt to market signals.
Embrace transparency over secrecy: Modern collaboration requires providing a contextualized “lens” into production status without compromising proprietary IP or cybersecurity. Industrial data fabrics are key.
As always, view technology as a tool, not an outcome: Industrial data fabrics are needed to break silos and AI to manage complexity and improve accuracy and speed of decisions. However, the age-old adage remains true. Just because you can apply AI to something doesn’t mean you should. It must be grounded in measurable Value on Investment (VOI), not just return.

The New Fabric of Demand Blog Series

This is the first in a series of four on The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-Time Production. Over the coming days, I’ll publish a perspective from each of the three pillars of the new fabric of demand:

Pillar 1: The Market Signal
Pillar 2: The Demand Architect
Pillar 3: The Agile Partner

By Mike Guilfoyle, Vice President.

For more than two decades, Michael has assisted organizations, including numerous Fortune 500 companies, in identifying and capitalizing on growth opportunities and market disruption presented by the effects of digital economies, energy transition, and industrial sustainability on the energy, manufacturing, and technology industries.

The post How to Capitalize Quickly to Address Hyperconnected Industrial Demand appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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