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Transpac post-peak ocean cools, and no signs of air cargo bump ahead of August tariff expirations – July 22, 2025 Update

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Transpac post-peak ocean cools, and no signs of air cargo bump ahead of August tariff expirations – July 22, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

July 22, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 2% to $2,325/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 10% to $4,411/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 2% to $3,572/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 6% to $3,568/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 19% to 5.17/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices stayed level at $3.35/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 1% to $1.77/kg.

Analysis

The Trump administration’s August expiration dates for current tariff levels on many countries are rapidly approaching with little progress in trade negotiations in the last couple weeks and escalating US tensions with Mexico and the European Union. That the US reportedly intends to apply higher tariffs on transhipped goods from many countries – taking aim at the current level of China’s contributions to finished goods exported by other nations – may be another factor complicating trade talks.

The window to ship containers that will arrive before August – even with the early July extension of the tariff expiration to August 1st – is now closed. In a recent conversation with Freightos, Steve Nguyen, Vice Director at forwarder Ring Vietnam, remarked that “demand out of Vietnam had been strong in April and May but rates and space availability had started to ease by mid-June by which point a majority of frontloading had already taken place.”

And most signs likewise indicate that this year’s transpacific ocean peak season overall was early, brief and muted by frontloading earlier in the year by some shippers and by a wait and see approach being taken by others. Robert Khachatryan, CEO of forwarder FreightRight, shared that this paralysis may be particularly true for “small and mid-size importers who can’t easily absorb 25% to 40% tariff hikes.” These factors mean that June saw the peak season high for ocean bookings out of the Far East, and that July will be the peak for container arrivals to the US.

Ocean rates reflect these trends as well. Mid-month July transpacific GRIs planned by many carriers did not materialize as demand eased since late June. Transpacific spot rates to the West Coast are down 60% from the $6,000/FEU high reached in mid-June to an average of $2,325/FEU last week. This rate level is about even with West Coast prices maintained in April and early May when US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods triggered a sharp drop in demand, and are 70% lower than a year ago. The latest daily rates to the East Coast of about $4,100/FEU are 40% lower than their $7,100/FEU June peak. This price is still 20% higher than in April, but 57% lower than last July. Carriers are announcing significant blanked sailings for the remainder of July and for August in hopes of stabilizing sliding rates.

For Asia – Europe ocean trade, peak season demand has pushed rates up more than 50% since May to an average of $3,572/FEU last week. But even with strong demand and persistent congestion at several major European ports causing carriers to omit port calls in places like Antwerp, these rates are 60% lower than a year ago when Red Sea diversion drains on capacity were attributed with putting strong upward pressure on rates.

Asia – Mediterranean prices of $3,568/FEU are up 20% since May on peak season demand, but have already come down by 25% from a high in mid-June – likely another indication of growing overcapacity in the market, even as Red Sea diversions continue. This rate slide puts prices to the Mediterranean, which are typically higher than Asia – Europe rates, on par with prices to Europe for the first time since January. Some carriers will nonetheless introduce Asia – Europe PSSs in August, possibly hoping capacity reductions will help rates rebound.

In air cargo, the recent weeks following the US reciprocal tariff deadline extension haven’t seen any surge in demand or much upward pressure on inbound US cargo rates from countries granted more time for trade talks. Likewise, as the August 12th expiration of the current US tariffs on China nears, China-US air cargo trends have stayed level as well.

Compared to rate levels just before the July 9th tariff deadline, Freightos Air Index air cargo rates from South East Asia to the US have remained stable at $4.84/kg. China-US prices have dipped 7% to $5.17/kg, rates out of South Asia are down 4% to $4.55/kg and transatlantic prices are down 2% to $1.77/kg.

This rate stability suggests there hasn’t been a major push to move goods by air before the deadline yet. And though it is possible there will be some bump as August approaches, it seems that, overall, shippers aren’t frontloading ahead of the August 1st deadline either in expectations that trade deals will materialize, anticipation that further extensions could be granted, or as a result of a lot of frontloading already executed during the 90-day pauses.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The post Transpac post-peak ocean cools, and no signs of air cargo bump ahead of August tariff expirations – July 22, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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Autonomous Tendering Is Coming for the Routing Guide

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The routing guide has long been one of the central control mechanisms in transportation management. It reflects negotiated rates, preferred carriers, service expectations, contractual commitments, and years of transportation experience. For many shippers, it is the operating logic behind freight execution.

But that logic is increasingly being tested.

As AI-enabled transportation management systems evolve, tendering will become more dynamic, more automated, and more analytical. Instead of transportation teams manually working through static routing guides, systems will continuously evaluate carrier performance, capacity conditions, service risk, cost, spot market alternatives, appointment constraints, and historical behavior.

Download the TMS Market Research Executive Summary for a strategic view of how AI, automation, and decision intelligence are reshaping transportation management.

The result is a major shift in transportation execution: autonomous tendering.

This does not mean humans disappear from freight procurement. But it does mean the traditional routing guide will be forced to evolve from a static sequence of carrier preferences into a dynamic decision framework.

The Routing Guide Was Built for a More Stable Market

The traditional routing guide makes sense in a world where conditions are relatively stable. A shipper runs an annual or semiannual bid. Carriers are awarded lanes. Primary, secondary, and backup carriers are ranked. The TMS tenders freight according to that hierarchy.

When the market is balanced and carrier commitments hold, this model works well enough. It creates structure, supports compliance, and helps transportation teams manage cost.

But freight markets are rarely static for long.

Capacity tightens. Spot rates move. Carrier service performance changes. Facilities become congested. Customer requirements shift. Weather, labor constraints, port delays, equipment imbalances, and regional disruptions alter the real economics of a shipment.

A routing guide created months ago may not reflect today’s best decision.

This is where autonomous tendering becomes powerful.

What Autonomous Tendering Actually Means

Autonomous tendering is not simply automated tender sequencing. Basic tender automation has existed for years. The more important development is decision automation.

An AI-enabled TMS can evaluate multiple variables at the time of tender. It can consider historical acceptance rates, recent lane-level performance, real-time capacity conditions, cost and service tradeoffs, facility constraints, appointment availability, customer priority, spot market alternatives, emissions considerations, and exception risk. The system is no longer only asking, “Who is next in the routing guide?” It is asking, “Which option is most likely to produce the best outcome under current conditions?”

That may still mean tendering to the primary carrier. But it may also mean skipping a carrier with deteriorating performance, selecting a carrier with better recent reliability, using a digital freight option, or escalating the shipment before failure occurs. The point is not automation for its own sake. The point is better execution under changing conditions.

Why This Is Controversial

Transportation has always depended on judgment. Experienced transportation managers know which carriers perform well, which lanes are difficult, which facilities create dwell time, and which relationships matter. Freight procurement is not purely mathematical.

That is why autonomous tendering can feel threatening.

It challenges the idea that the routing guide should be the primary expression of transportation strategy. It also exposes uncomfortable realities. Some routing guides are stale. Some carrier rankings reflect old assumptions. Some decisions are shaped by habit rather than current performance. Some “preferred” carriers are preferred because they won a bid, not because they are the best choice today.

AI does not eliminate the need for procurement judgment, but it does make weak logic more visible.

From Static Compliance to Dynamic Optimization

For years, transportation organizations have measured routing guide compliance. That made sense when the routing guide was considered the best available plan. But in a more dynamic market, strict compliance is not always the right goal.

A better question is whether the shipment was executed according to the best available decision at the time.

This changes the role of the routing guide. It becomes one input into a broader optimization model, not the entire model. Contracted rates and carrier commitments still matter, but they must be evaluated alongside service risk, acceptance probability, market conditions, and business priority.

The future routing guide may look less like a fixed ladder and more like a decision policy.

Human Oversight Still Matters

Autonomous tendering should not be confused with unmanaged automation. Transportation is too important to leave entirely to opaque systems. Shippers will need guardrails, approval thresholds, exception rules, and auditability.

The system may be allowed to autonomously tender standard freight within defined parameters. But high-value shipments, strategic customers, expensive expedites, unusual equipment, and contractual exceptions may still require human review.

The best model is not human versus machine. It is human-supervised autonomy.

Transportation managers define the strategy, constraints, and escalation rules. The system executes within those boundaries, learns from outcomes, and surfaces exceptions when human intervention is valuable.

What Buyers Should Look For

Shippers evaluating TMS capabilities should look beyond whether a platform can automate tenders. The more important question is whether it can improve tendering decisions.

A strong system should be able to evaluate acceptance probability, incorporate recent carrier performance, consider spot market intelligence, and explain why a carrier was selected. It should also allow users to define operating rules by customer, lane, region, facility, shipment priority, or business unit. In practice, this means the system should not merely execute a routing guide. It should help transportation leaders understand whether the routing guide is still producing the intended cost, service, and reliability outcomes.

The best platforms will also learn from tender rejections, service failures, and changing market conditions. That learning loop is what separates basic execution automation from transportation decision intelligence.

The Routing Guide Is Not Dead, But It Is Being Redefined

The routing guide will not disappear. Shippers still need contracted capacity, procurement discipline, and carrier strategy. But the routing guide will no longer be enough on its own.

Autonomous tendering is coming because the transportation environment is too dynamic for static decision logic. The winners will be the organizations that treat AI not as a replacement for procurement expertise, but as a way to operationalize that expertise at scale.

The future routing guide will not simply tell the system who to tender to first.

It will tell the system how to decide.

Download the TMS Market Research Executive Summary for a strategic view of how autonomous tendering, routing guide strategy, and transportation execution are evolving.

The post Autonomous Tendering Is Coming for the Routing Guide appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Real-Time Visibility Won. That May Be Why It Stops Being a Standalone Market.

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Real-time transportation visibility has been one of the defining logistics technology categories of the last decade. It solved a problem that shippers, carriers, brokers, and customers all understood: Where is my freight, when will it arrive, and what should I do if it will be late?

That problem was real. The market was real. And the value was real.

But the next phase of transportation technology may be less favorable to real-time visibility as a standalone software category. Not because visibility is becoming less important, but because it is becoming more expected. Capabilities that were once differentiating are increasingly being absorbed into transportation management systems, control towers, carrier platforms, digital freight networks, and managed transportation offerings.

Download the TMS Market Research Executive Summary for a strategic view of how visibility, execution, and transportation decision-making are converging.

In other words, real-time visibility may have won so thoroughly that it is no longer always purchased as a separate market.

From Blind Spots to Baseline Capability

For years, transportation operations suffered from a persistent information gap. A shipment could be tendered, picked up, and moved across a network with limited visibility between milestone events. Transportation teams depended on carrier check calls, EDI updates, emails, spreadsheets, and customer service escalation to understand what was happening.

Visibility platforms changed that. They aggregated carrier connections, GPS signals, ELD data, milestone updates, appointment information, and predictive ETA logic into a more usable operational view. The best solutions gave shippers earlier warning of late deliveries, better customer communication, improved exception management, and more accurate performance measurement.

This was not cosmetic technology. It improved execution.

But technology categories mature. Once a capability becomes sufficiently important, adjacent platforms begin to embed it. That is what is now happening to visibility.

Visibility Is Becoming Part of the Transportation Operating Layer

Transportation buyers increasingly expect visibility to be native to the systems they already use. A shipper evaluating a TMS does not want transportation planning in one system, execution in another, exception alerts in a third, and customer-facing shipment status in a fourth. The buyer wants an operating environment where visibility data informs the workflow directly.

That changes the role of visibility.

Visibility is no longer just a map. It is an input into decisions. It informs appointment scheduling, labor planning, inventory positioning, customer communication, carrier scorecards, routing guide compliance, and freight procurement. The value is not simply knowing where the load is. The value is knowing what the shipment status means for the next decision.

That pushes visibility closer to TMS, control tower, and decision intelligence platforms.

A late inbound shipment may require reallocation of inventory, rescheduling of dock labor, substitution of carriers, customer notification, or reprioritization of orders. If the visibility system only reports the problem but the TMS or control tower manages the response, the natural architectural question becomes: why are these capabilities separate?

The Standalone Market Is Not Disappearing Overnight

This does not mean standalone visibility providers are doomed. Many have deep carrier networks, global data coverage, sophisticated ETA models, ocean and intermodal capabilities, and strong customer-facing workflows. Those assets remain valuable.

But the category is changing.

The question is no longer whether a company needs visibility. The answer is obviously yes. The more difficult question is whether visibility should be bought as a separate application, embedded within a broader TMS suite, delivered through a managed transportation provider, or included as part of a multi-enterprise supply chain network.

That shift affects buying behavior.

Standalone providers will need to prove that they deliver value beyond basic shipment status, milestone tracking, and predictive ETA. The strongest players will move deeper into exception orchestration, network analytics, risk prediction, appointment intelligence, emissions visibility, carrier performance intelligence, and customer experience.

The weaker position is to remain only a tracking layer.

Why This Matters for TMS Vendors

For TMS vendors, visibility is no longer optional. It is becoming part of the expected product architecture. A modern TMS must not simply tender loads and manage freight invoices. It must support the transportation team’s ability to sense, decide, and respond.

That requires visibility data to be embedded in workflows.

If a load is projected to miss delivery, the system should not merely display a red alert. It should help determine whether to expedite, retender, notify the customer, reschedule the appointment, use alternate inventory, or accept the delay. That is where the market is moving: from visibility as awareness to visibility as decision support.

The TMS that uses visibility data intelligently will have a stronger value proposition than the TMS that merely integrates to a tracking provider.

Why This Matters for Shippers

For shippers, the key issue is not category purity. It is operational effectiveness. A transportation team does not need visibility because it wants another dashboard. It needs visibility because shipment status should improve the next decision.

That means buyers should look carefully at how visibility data is used inside the broader transportation workflow. If shipment status sits in a separate portal and requires planners to manually interpret every exception, the value is limited. But if visibility data helps prioritize late loads, trigger customer notifications, inform carrier scorecards, support procurement decisions, and guide exception response, it becomes part of the operating fabric of transportation management.

This distinction matters because visibility without action can become noise. Transportation teams already have more alerts, emails, portals, and exception messages than they can reasonably manage. The stronger value proposition is not more information. It is better operational judgment at the moment when a shipment is at risk.

The Future of Visibility Is Embedded, Intelligent, and Operational

The future of real-time visibility is not less important. It is more integrated.

Visibility will increasingly be judged by how well it improves downstream decisions. The most valuable systems will not simply answer, “Where is my shipment?” They will help answer, “What should I do now?”

That is why the standalone visibility market faces pressure. It solved the visibility problem well enough that the capability is now becoming part of the broader transportation technology stack.

Real-time visibility won. That may be exactly why it stops being a standalone market.

Download the TMS Market Research Executive Summary for a strategic view of how the TMS market is moving from execution software toward broader transportation decision infrastructure.

The post Real-Time Visibility Won. That May Be Why It Stops Being a Standalone Market. appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Last Chance: Join the Webinar on AI, Component Sourcing, and the Future of Procurement

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Electronic component sourcing is becoming one of the most important cost and risk challenges facing manufacturers.

Pricing remains opaque. Supplier quotes do not always reflect true market pricing. Internal purchase history may show what a company paid, but not whether that price was competitive.

At the same time, chips and components are increasingly tied to geopolitics, tariffs, AI infrastructure, defense demand, electrification, industrial automation, and supply chain resilience.

The webinar is tomorrow at 11 AM ET. Register now to join ARC Advisory Group’s discussion, The Hidden Cost of Component Sourcing — and How AI Is Fixing It, featuring Jim Frazer in conversation with Lytica CEO Martin Sendyk.

This is a practical conversation for procurement, supply chain, engineering, operations, and executive leaders who are trying to understand how component sourcing is changing.

Manufacturers need to control cost, protect supply, support product launches, and manage risk in a market where visibility is often limited. Overpayment can remain hidden. Component risk can appear too late. Engineering and procurement decisions can become locked in before teams have enough market intelligence to make the best sourcing choices.

Tomorrow’s webinar will examine why traditional approaches to component sourcing are under pressure and how manufacturers can use better intelligence to identify hidden cost, improve benchmarking, and manage sourcing risk more effectively.

Attendees will learn:

Why electronic component pricing remains difficult to benchmark

How hidden overpayment can persist inside normal procurement activity

Why supplier quotes, list prices, and internal history are not enough

How real transactional data can improve pricing visibility

Why geopolitics, AI demand, tariffs, electrification, and defense demand are changing the sourcing risk equation

How AI and sourcing intelligence can help procurement teams make better cost and risk decisions

The issue is no longer only whether a company can secure supply.

The issue is whether it can secure the right components, at the right price, with the right risk profile, early enough to influence the business outcome.

For many manufacturers, that requires a more transparent, data-driven, and intelligence-led sourcing model.

Register now for the ARC Advisory Group webinar with Jim Frazer and Lytica CEO Martin Sendyk before the session begins tomorrow at 11 AM ET.

Register for the Webinar

The Hidden Cost of Component Sourcing — and How AI Is Fixing It
Date: June 23, 2026
Time: 11:00 AM ET
Location: Online
Speakers: Jim Frazer, Vice President, ARC Advisory Group, and Martin Sendyk, CEO, Lytica

If your organization manages a significant electronic component spend, this webinar will help you understand how AI and transactional market data can expose hidden sourcing costs and turn procurement into a more proactive system of intelligence.

Register now to reserve your spot.

The post Last Chance: Join the Webinar on AI, Component Sourcing, and the Future of Procurement appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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