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Transpacific ocean rates continue to slide; Air cargo out of the Middle East still recovering – July 08, 2025 Update

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Transpacific ocean rates continue to slide; Air cargo out of the Middle East still recovering – July 08, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

July 8, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 8% to $3,124/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 16% to $5,159/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 14% to $3,384/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 6% to $3,967/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $5.57/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 3% to $3.35/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 1% to $1.8/kg.

Analysis

President Trump signed an executive order on Monday extending the pause of the White House’s reciprocal tariff roll outs for a long list of US trading partners from July 9th to August 1st. Trump also sent letters to the governments of fourteen countries communicating the extension and specifying the tariff rate that will go into effect in a few weeks. These tariff levels were generally similar to those announced in April, though rates for Cambodia and Laos were significantly lower.

The extensions allow more time for negotiations that could lower or avoid these tariff increases, as so far the White House has only signed an agreement with the UK, announced a tentative trade framework with Vietnam, and is reportedly making progress with several trade partners including the EU, Japan, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand.

For ocean freight, this development could mean that importers from the impacted countries will resume shipping activities that they may have been planning to pause if tariff hikes materialized this week. But the short runway until August and the volumes that many of these shippers have already frontloaded will likely mute the extent of any rest-of-July bump.

The executive order makes clear that these changes do not apply to China, for whom current US tariff levels expire on August 11th. The president has said that the US signed a trade deal with China and the Commerce Secretary elaborated that the agreement will see China resuming its rare earth metals trade with the US and the US taking down countermeasures, though other details of the agreement – including tariff levels – remain unclear.

In terms of ocean freight, since the trade war heat up in April, the major swings in US ocean import volumes and container rates have all centered around US policies for trade with China, with a much more limited impact from tariff changes for other countries.

Though the April pause on reciprocal tariffs spurred frontloading of goods from many countries, including several in South East Asia, the concurrent US tariff hike on China to 145% saw US ocean imports slump overall in April and May. Likewise, transpacific container rates remained level – and likely would have decreased without the significant blanked sailings carriers implemented in April and May – in this stretch despite increased volumes out of SEA. But volumes rebounded sharply and container rates spiked by thousands of dollars per FEU following the US reducing its tariff on China to 30% in mid-May.

So this relatively brief tariff pause extension to August 1st for countries besides China is unlikely to significantly alter the current trends in the US-bound container market, which has been facing easing volumes and falling rates since demand and prices peaked in mid-June.

Transpacific spot rates to the West Coast fell 8% last week to $3,124/FEU. Daily rates so far this week are at $2,390/FEU, 60% lower than the $6,000/FEU mark hit just three weeks ago, 70% lower than this time last year and about back to the low for the year rate level seen from March through mid-May.

Daily rates to the East Coast are down to $4,900/FEU for a 30% drop since mid-June. East Coast rates remain about $1,500/FEU above their March to May level, likely a result of fewer capacity additions to this lane, as shippers facing tariff deadlines have preferred the quicker West Coast route.

Prices are dropping as demand eases from the initial post China-US deescalation bump since the window to ship goods that will arrive in the US before August 12th is now about closed. But carriers have also increased transpacific capacity – especially to the West Coast – to a record level, which is now surpassing demand and contributing to the downward pressure on rates as well. With these forces combining to push rates down, carriers have canceled planned July GRIs and are suspending or reducing many PSSs too. Some carriers are already starting to remove capacity in attempts to stop the rate deterioration.

Start of July GRIs were partially successful on the Asia – N. Europe lane, where rates increased 14% to $3,384/FEU last week, have climbed another $200 so far this week and are 50% higher than at the end of May. Prices are climbing on relatively strong peak season demand and are being helped by persistent congestion at several of Europe’s container hubs even as carriers take steps to adjust. But despite reasonable demand, congestion and continued Red Sea diversions – the major driver for elevated rates since early last year – prices are still well below the $8,500/FEU peak season high reached this time last year.

One important factor to lower year on year rate levels is continued fleet growth and the record scheduled capacity on this lane as well. There are reports that carriers will increase blankings on this lane and reduce scheduled capacity in August – an unusual step during peak season. Likewise, overcapacity is being blamed for July GRIs failing on the Asia-Mediterranean lane, and scheduled capacity is set to increase in August. Despite reports of strong demand, Asia – Mediterranean rates have fallen almost 20% since mid-June, though they remain 30% higher than at the end of May.

Similarly in air cargo, as some e-commerce volumes have exited the market capacity may now overall be exceeding demand, with the Freightos Air Index global benchmark about 7% lower than it was a year ago. The US’s suspension of de minimis exemption eligibility for Chinese exports introduced in May was a big driver of easing volumes on the transpacific – and possibly globally – in the last two months. The tax bill that the US congress passed last week includes a law that will cancel the de minimis exemption for all US imports starting in July 2027.

In the meantime FAX China – US rates ticked up to $5.57/kg last week, about on par with last July as capacity on the lane has decreased but stabilized. China – Europe prices are down 12% in the last month to $3.35/kg, and may reflect reports of capacity increases on the lane as freighters have been shifted from the transpacific to other lanes like this one.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The post Transpacific ocean rates continue to slide; Air cargo out of the Middle East still recovering – July 08, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution

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Warehouse Orchestration: Solving The Daily Breakdown Between Plan And Execution

In most warehouses today, the problem is not whether work gets done; it is how much effort it takes to keep everything aligned and on track. Every day, there is a breakdown between the plan and executing the plan. Labor plans, inbound schedules, picking priorities, and automation all operate from valid assumptions, but not always the same ones. The gaps between them are filled in real time by supervisors and teams, making constant adjustments. That is what keeps operations running, but it is also what makes them fragile.

It is a challenge many operations recognize. Even with modern systems in place, execution still depends heavily on human coordination. Warehouse orchestration is the shift from managing tasks independently to coordinating the entire operation and ensuring decisions across the system stay aligned as conditions change. The best way to understand what that means in practice is not through a system diagram, but through the lens and experience of the people running the floor.

Consider Maria, a warehouse supervisor responsible for keeping a high-volume operation on track. She is experienced, practical, and steady under pressure, but what she is really managing is not just work; it is complexity.

At any given moment, she balances labor availability, work queues, inbound variability, equipment status, and shifting order priorities. Those inputs are not wrong. They are just not aligned. It is her job to bridge that gap in real time.

A shift that starts “normal” … until it does not

Maria arrives before the floor fully wakes up. Her first stop is not the dock or the pick module; it is yesterday’s reality. What shipped? What did not? Where did the backlog form? Which waves did not behave as the plan assumed? She is not looking for blame; she is looking for drift. Drift is what turns into firefighting later.

Demand shifted over the weekend, but the pick face still reflects last week’s reality. One area is short-staffed; another has idle labor. When the team built the labor plan, it made sense, but the day had already moved on. The team scheduled inbound; however, it is not predictable. Every ETA is a best guess, and how trailers show up rarely matches how they appear on a screen.

Individually, nothing here is catastrophic, but warehouses do not fail all at once. They gradually lose alignment between plan and execution. The team compensates in real time by moving people, reprioritizing work, working around automation delays, and making judgment calls. And the shift “works,” but there is a cost:

Overtime, which did not need to happen.

Detention fees, which show up later.

Service misses, driven by wrong priorities rather than a lack of effort.

Leaders who spend more time reacting than improving.

These challenges are the reality across many operations. Execution is strong, but coordination is fragile.

The real bottleneck: decisions are fragmented

Most warehouses are not short on tools. They have WMS, robotics systems, labor tools, and planning solutions. Each one does its job well, but they do not make decisions together. Each system optimizes its scope based on different priorities or timings. The gaps between them are filled manually by people like Maria. In an environment with less variability, that might work, but in most cases:

Demand changes faster and more frequently.

Labor is less predictable.

Automation introduces new dependencies.

Customer expectations continue to rise.

Under these conditions, static plans, especially labor plans and wave structures, can drift out of sync before the shift is halfway through. That is when the operation starts relying on “manual heroics.” Experienced supervisors keep things running. It is hard to scale, and even harder to sustain.

AI-driven warehouse orchestration: keeping the operation aligned

Warehouse orchestration and the power of AI address this gap. Because it is not just about executing tasks, it is about coordinating decisions across the operation and using intelligence to see, analyze, and recommend actions with full visibility to all the variables. Instead of managing isolated activities, intelligent orchestration continuously aligns:

Labor to demand.

Inbound and outbound priorities.

Work sequencing across zones.

Automation with human workflows.

It does this in real time, as conditions change. Variability is constant, and it is not realistic to eliminate. The goal is to see the risk earlier, respond faster and more consistently, and prevent disruption.

Back to Maria: when the system helps carry the load

Now imagine Maria running that same Monday, but operations now behave like a connected ecosystem, not a collection of islands. Before the shift even starts, she is not just reviewing what happened yesterday. She is looking at a forward-facing view that is already adjusting based on incoming signals. She is getting visibility into risk early before it is a problem. Inbound appointments are not just a schedule; they are a ranked set of trade-offs that balance urgency, detention risk, inventory needs, and outbound commitments. Her decisions are clearer because the system prioritizes them, reflecting business impact. Slotting does not rely on disruptive, periodic re-slot projects that leave the pick face to decay. Instead, optimization and learning continuously shape placement, folding the highest value moves into natural replenishment windows and explaining the “why” in business language.

And during the shift, when one area starts falling behind, Maria does not have to guess the best move. She can see the impact of her options:

Shifting labor.

Reprioritizing tasks.

Adjusting sequencing.

Instead of relying on instinct and experience alone, she has visibility into how decisions affect the entire operation. She is still in control, but the system is helping her avoid problems instead of chasing them. And that changes how the shift feels. It is not static; it is dynamic, but stable.

The key ingredients: unified data, SaaS, AI & ML, connected systems

Behind the scenes, this comes down to unified data, SaaS, AI, ML, and systems that work together. When you connect your warehouse systems, add real-time operational signals and visibility to systems outside of the warehouse, and apply AI and ML for speed and precision, you are working from a single source of truth and an interconnected ecosystem of systems. As a result, users make decisions with a broader context. Then the operation starts to learn; outcomes inform future decisions, improving how the system responds over time. And now, humans are not the only thing holding the performance together.

Why this matters right now

For supply chain leaders, this is not only about efficiency. It is about operating in a world where volatility is constant. Across industries, the specifics vary, but the challenges are consistent:

Handling demand swings without inflating labor costs

Scaling operations without scaling complexity

Maintaining service levels under pressure

The operations that succeed are the ones that do not just react faster; they are the ones that operate in alignment.

The shift ahead

A single, modern technology will not define the future of warehouse management. It will be defined by how well operations coordinate across people, systems, and workflows in real time. That is what intelligent warehouse orchestration enables. It turns the warehouse from a collection of well-run processes into a connected system that can adjust continuously. Because in the end, the goal is not just to execute the plan. It is to keep the plan from breaking when the shift starts.

By Tammy Kulesa
Senior Director, Solution & Industry Marketing, Blue Yonder

Tammy is the Senior Director of Solution and Industry Marketing, leading go-to-market strategy and thought leadership for Blue Yonder Cognitive Solutions for Execution, and the LSP Industry. With over 20 years of experience in technology marketing and nearly a decade focused on retail, logistics, and supply chain, Tammy brings a deep understanding of the operational and strategic challenges facing today’s supply chain leaders. A passionate advocate for innovation and collaboration, Tammy has a proven track record of connecting market needs with transformative solutions.

The post Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action

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Supply chain AI cannot stop at better insight. To create operational value, AI recommendations must connect to workflows, execution systems, approval paths, and measurable outcomes.

Artificial intelligence is quickly becoming part of the supply chain technology conversation. Vendors are adding copilots, recommendation engines, autonomous agents, and predictive analytics to planning, transportation, warehousing, procurement, and visibility applications. The promise is clear: better decisions, faster responses, and more adaptive operations.

But there is a critical distinction that supply chain leaders need to keep in view. An AI system that identifies a problem is not the same as an AI system that helps solve it.

A demand-planning model may identify a likely stockout. A transportation model may flag a lane disruption. A supplier-risk model may detect a deteriorating delivery pattern. Those are useful insights. But unless the system can connect that insight to an action pathway, the burden still falls on the planner, transportation manager, procurement team, or customer service group to decide what happens next.

That is where many AI deployments will either create real value or stall out.

For a deeper look at the architecture behind operational AI, including A2A, MCP, RAG, Graph RAG, and connected decision systems, download the full white paper: AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution.

Insight Is Not Execution

Supply chains do not run on insight alone. They run on orders, shipments, purchase orders, inventory moves, carrier tenders, production schedules, warehouse labor plans, customer commitments, and exception workflows.

A recommendation that remains in a dashboard is not yet operational AI. It is decision support. Decision support can be valuable, but it does not fundamentally change the operating model unless it becomes part of the execution process.

The question is not simply, “Can the AI make a recommendation?” The better question is, “Can the organization act on that recommendation in a controlled, auditable, and timely way?”

For example, if an AI system predicts that a regional distribution center will run short of inventory, several action pathways may be available. The company might expedite inbound supply, rebalance inventory from another facility, substitute a product, modify customer allocation rules, or adjust promised delivery dates.

Each action has a cost, a service implication, and a governance requirement.

Operational AI must understand those pathways. It must also know which actions it can recommend, which it can execute automatically, and which require human approval.

The Execution Layer Matters

This is why integration with core execution systems is so important. AI cannot operate effectively if it sits outside the systems where work is actually performed.

For supply chain AI to become operational, it must connect to transportation management systems, warehouse management systems, order management systems, ERP, procurement platforms, supplier portals, customer service workflows, and control tower environments.

Without these connections, AI may diagnose problems faster, but it will not necessarily resolve them faster.

The difference is material. An AI assistant that says, “This shipment is likely to miss its delivery appointment,” is useful. An AI-enabled workflow that identifies the delay, calculates downstream service risk, recommends a carrier alternative, checks cost thresholds, initiates an approval workflow, and updates customer service is much more powerful.

That is the move from analytics to operational intelligence.

Human-in-the-Loop Still Matters

This does not mean every AI recommendation should become an automated action. Supply chain decisions often involve tradeoffs among cost, service, risk, inventory, and customer relationships. Many require judgment.

The more practical model is tiered autonomy.

Low-risk, high-frequency actions may be automated. Moderate-risk decisions may require planner approval. High-impact exceptions may require escalation to a manager or executive.

This is not a weakness. It is a design requirement.

A well-architected operational AI system should know when to act, when to recommend, and when to escalate. It should also capture the outcome so the system can learn whether the decision improved performance.

Closed-Loop Learning Is the Real Prize

The most important capability may not be the first recommendation. It may be the feedback loop that follows.

Did the expedited shipment prevent the stockout? Did the alternate supplier meet the delivery date? Did the inventory transfer protect service without creating a shortage elsewhere? Did the customer accept the revised promise date?

These outcomes should not disappear into operational noise. They should feed back into the intelligence layer.

That is how AI becomes more than a static recommendation tool. It becomes a learning system embedded in the daily operating rhythm of the supply chain.

What This Means for Buyers

Supply chain leaders evaluating AI-enabled software should press vendors on action pathways. The relevant questions are straightforward.

Can the system connect recommendations to execution workflows? Can it distinguish between automated, approved, and escalated actions? Can it operate across functions, not just inside one application? Can it create an audit trail? Can it learn from outcomes?

The vendors that answer these questions well will move beyond AI features. They will become part of the operating architecture.

The next phase of supply chain AI will not be won by the tool that produces the most impressive recommendation. It will be won by the systems that help companies act faster, with more control, better context, and measurable outcomes.

The post How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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