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Trump Tariffs: The Importer Perspective Halfway Through the 90-Day Trade Pause

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Trump Tariffs: The Importer Perspective Halfway Through the 90-Day Trade Pause

A May Freightos survey of small and midsize US importers explores the impact of the tariffs on business sentiment, Memorial Day sales, and more.

May 22, 2025

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The much-needed 90-day general tariff reprieve that President Trump announced on April 9th is already half spent, while the 90-day China reprieve, announced on May 12, still has until early August.

The paused on the China tariffs reduced duties from 145% to a still-high 30% on most products, leaving importers until August 14 in what has now become a normal state of wariness and confusion.

So yes, a breather, but one inhaled at sprint pace.

Small-business sentiment

In mid-May, Freightos surveyed more than a hundred small and midsize U.S. importers to gauge how they’re coping with the Trump tariffs impact. The results paint a picture of businesses stretched to the end:

80% feel as worried or more worried than in April, even with the 90-day China-US pause.

42% report a “perfect” 10/10 on a scale of how disruptive the tariffs have been, with an average rating of 7.5/10.

Nearly a third are actively considering U.S. sourcing (but for now, it’s only a consideration, with only 6% having shifted production)

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Of course, for many, even the 90 day delay isn’t much of a reprieve:

As Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, shared in a recent webinar:

“Thirty-percent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are still higher than anything we saw in the first Trump term—and they now cover 100% of exports.”

Responding to the survey, one small business owner called the duties “an existential threat,” while another admitted being just “upside-down on a few deals.”

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Anxiety isn’t easing; it’s calcifying.

Bullwhip in real time

Even a dream resolution for many of these importers, in which all the tariffs simply disappear, would still mean rough months ahead.

April’s pause in China bookings starved sailing schedules, with carriers cutting one in every five sailings. The May rebound is now forcing those same lines to chase equipment and reopen services, a classic bullwhip that threatens summer congestion.

As many businesses experienced during COVID, bullwhip effects basically mean that supply chain shocks don’t just resolve, instead frequently leading to reverberating echos of progressively smaller supply and demand imbalances.

Main-street coping with Trump Tariffs

Businesses have not been complacent.

Fifteen percent have switched suppliers and some 30% are contemplating reshoring to the US. In reality, however, only a handful of companies have shifted production back to the US (7%). This may be the uncertainty of what the tariff policy will be or how long it will last, making businesses hesitant to invest in big strategic changes.

In the meantime, contending with the shipments that were delayed prior to the tariff delay is top of mind.

About half of these businesses (47%) froze their imports during the tariffs, resulting in many now fast-tracking holiday orders that may face higher tariffs in mid-August. This could bolster freight rates.

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Many importers are now reviewing their import duty calculations to understand the full impact of both current and potential future rates. At the same time, a quarter of SMB importers (26%) front-loaded shipments (ie accelerated shipments to ensure they reached the US prior to the the tariff roll out), creating enough of a buffer that they don’t need to ship goods as urgently.

Muted Memorial Day Tariff Impact

One positive take is that it appears, for now, that the businesses do not believe the tariff impacts have trickled down to consumer spending. Businesses believed that Memorial Day sales would remain mostly intact – the average impact score was 4.3/10 with about one-third describing the tariffs are potentially being highly disruptive to holiday sales.

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The Bottom Line of the Tariff Freeze

The pause buys time, not clarity. Without a stable playbook, SMB importers will keep pivoting—each pivot sending fresh ripples through an already-stressed supply chain. For companies that rely on shipping from China to the USA, this uncertainty makes planning exceptionally difficult. As one importer put it:

“[There is] no way to plan ahead. With daily changes and confusion—we couldn’t know what would happen next and what we should do about pricing.”

Small Business responding to May survey

FAQ: Quick Answers About the Trump Tariffs Pause

Q: What happens after the 90-day tariff pause expires?
A: After August 14, tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to return to 145% from the current 30% rate, unless further policy changes are announced.

Q: How are small businesses adapting to the current tariff situation?
A: According to the recent Freightos survey of 109 small business importers, 15% have switched suppliers, 30% are considering reshoring to the US, though only 7% have actually shifted production domestically, and some 48% are accelerating shipments as a result of the temporary reprieve.

Q: Are the current tariffs affecting consumer prices?
A: While businesses report significant disruption (7.5/10 average impact rating), most don’t anticipate major effects on consumer Memorial Day spending.

Eytan Buchman

CMO, Freightos Group

Eytan Buchman loves freight so much he shouts out container sizes while he walks around. He’s obsessed with marketing, data storytelling (it’s a thing!) and bakes really good cookies. He’s the Chief Marketing Officer at the Freightos Group, which runs Freightos, the world’s leading online freight marketplace, and WebCargo, the digital network connecting logistics providers with airlines and ocean liners. When he’s not thinking about pallets, he hosts the Marketers in Capes podcast, and consults to a number of startups and nonprofits. He still likes Minidisc players and has never skied. Ever.

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When Every Function Has an AI Agent, Who Optimizes the Company?

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The first wave of enterprise AI has been organized largely around functions. Sales gets an assistant, procurement gets an agent, transportation gets an optimization layer, warehouse operations get orchestration, and finance gets its own analytical tools. That is a sensible way to adopt technology, but it creates a problem that supply chain leaders should recognize immediately: if every function gets better at optimizing its own objective, who optimizes the company?

This question follows directly from the coordination premium. Better intelligence increases the value of coordination because a supply chain is not one optimization problem; it is a collection of interdependent decisions made under competing objectives. AI can make each decision faster and more sophisticated, but it can also intensify conflicts that organizations have managed imperfectly for decades.

Local Optimization Has Always Been Expensive

A procurement organization may be rewarded for purchase-price variance, transportation for freight cost, inventory for working capital, manufacturing for utilization, and customer service for fill rate. Each KPI has a rational purpose, but no supply chain can maximize all of them simultaneously. When functions optimize without a shared view of the enterprise outcome, the company pays through excess inventory, premium freight, unstable schedules, or service failures.

This is one reason I have questioned whether traditional supply chain KPIs are keeping up with the job. Functional measures are useful, but they can reinforce the same silos that modern technology is supposed to eliminate. The same shift is visible in transportation, where TMS is becoming less of a routing tool and more of a decision-intelligence layer, forcing transportation decisions into a broader business context. AI agents operating against those measures could turn an old management problem into a high-speed software problem.

Agents Need Context Beyond Their Function

An agent that sees only transportation data may reasonably recommend the lowest-cost carrier. An agent with customer, inventory, production, and margin context may make a different choice because the shipment is tied to a production constraint or a strategic account. This is why context is becoming a critical requirement for supply chain AI: intelligence without business context can optimize the wrong thing very efficiently.

The problem grows when several agents interact. As discussed in Agentic AI in Supply Chain, coordinated execution will require agents to exchange information and hand work across boundaries. Communication, however, is not the same as goal alignment, and an architecture that allows agents to talk to one another still needs a way to resolve conflicts among objectives.

The Enterprise Objective Must Be Explicit

Human managers often resolve tradeoffs through experience. They know that a particular customer cannot miss a promotion, that a plant shutdown is more expensive than an expedite, or that inventory should be protected because another supplier is already unstable. Those judgments need to become more explicit when machines participate in the decision, which means organizations will have to encode priorities that were previously embedded in management behavior.

This is where the evolution from functional applications toward decision architectures becomes important. The architecture has to understand not simply what each application is designed to optimize, but how multiple objectives relate to an enterprise outcome. That may include margin, service, risk, cash, capacity, and strategic customer commitments at the same time.

Optimization Needs a Hierarchy

One practical implication is that companies may need a hierarchy of objectives rather than a flat collection of agent goals. Routine transportation decisions can optimize freight cost until a service-risk threshold is crossed; inventory can be minimized until resilience thresholds are threatened; production can maximize utilization until customer or working-capital penalties outweigh the benefit. In other words, autonomous optimization will need constraints that reflect the economics of the whole business.

This also suggests why compressing supply chain decision cycles is not enough by itself. A bad decision made in thirty seconds is not an improvement over a good decision made in thirty minutes, and a series of individually rational decisions can still produce a poor system outcome. Speed matters only when the decision logic is aligned with the right objective.

Management Becomes the Design of Tradeoffs

As agents become more capable, the managerial task may shift from supervising every transaction toward designing the tradeoffs the machines are allowed to make. Leaders will have to decide which outcomes take precedence, what risk limits apply, which decisions need escalation, and where local optimization must yield to enterprise priorities. Those are management questions expressed through software.

The implication is that the agentic supply chain cannot be designed by IT alone. Operations, finance, procurement, customer service, technology, and executive leadership all have to participate because the system is effectively encoding how the company values competing outcomes. That is a deeper transformation than adding an AI feature to an application.

Who Optimizes the Company?

The answer cannot be “the most powerful agent.” It has to be an operating model in which functional intelligence is coordinated through shared context, enterprise objectives, and explicit decision rules. Companies that solve that problem will get more value from every specialized agent they deploy because the agents will contribute to a coherent system rather than a faster collection of silos.

This is the next step after recognizing the coordination premium. Once an organization accepts that intelligence must be coordinated, it needs an architecture capable of translating coordinated decisions into action, and that is where the next article in this sequence begins: the need for an execution architecture rather than another intelligence layer.

The post When Every Function Has an AI Agent, Who Optimizes the Company? appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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The Coordination Premium: Why AI Makes Organizational Design More Important

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Artificial intelligence is usually presented as a technology story. Better models arrive, inference costs decline, applications acquire new capabilities, and companies search for places where AI can automate work. But the more I look at what is happening across supply chain software, warehouse automation, planning, visibility, and enterprise architecture, the more I think the important second-order effect is organizational: as intelligence becomes easier to acquire, coordination becomes harder to differentiate and more valuable to master.

I have argued previously that the marginal cost of intelligence is collapsing and, in As AI Becomes More Affordable, Supply Chain Software Differentiation Moves Up the Stack, that broadly available models push differentiation toward proprietary context, workflows, integration, and domain knowledge. That logic has another step. If every function can access better analytical capability, the scarce capability becomes the ability to coordinate those capabilities around an enterprise objective rather than allowing each function, system, or agent to optimize its own piece of the problem.

Cheap Intelligence Changes What Is Scarce

Supply chains have always rationed attention. Transportation planners cannot investigate every late shipment, procurement teams cannot continuously reassess every supplier, and warehouse managers cannot manually optimize every task sequence. AI changes that constraint because a machine can examine far more situations at a much lower marginal cost, but that does not eliminate the need to decide which objective matters when several good answers conflict.

Consider a late inbound component. One system may identify the delay, another may recommend an expedite, a planning engine may propose reallocating inventory from another facility, and a customer-service application may flag the order as strategically important. Each recommendation can be correct in isolation while the collective response is wrong, because somebody still has to decide whether preserving production, protecting service, reducing freight expense, or conserving inventory deserves priority.

More Agents Can Mean More Organizational Complexity

This is why the emergence of coordinated agentic execution deserves to be treated as an organizational issue as well as a software issue. A procurement agent may optimize purchase cost, a transportation agent may minimize freight spend, an inventory agent may reduce working capital, and a service agent may protect fill rate. Those goals frequently collide, which means AI can automate local optimization faster than the enterprise can resolve the tradeoffs unless the objectives are designed coherently.

Companies already know this problem in human form. Procurement can win a price concession that increases inventory, manufacturing can improve utilization by increasing batch sizes, and transportation can lower unit freight cost at the expense of lead time. AI does not make those tensions disappear; it can make them operate at machine speed. That is one reason AI alone will not fix fragmented supply chains: fragmentation of objectives can be just as damaging as fragmentation of data.

The Warehouse Shows the Pattern Early

Warehouses provide a useful preview because physical automation has already created environments where many specialized resources must act in concert. As I wrote in Why Warehouse Orchestration Is Becoming More Important Than Warehouse Automation, a facility can contain excellent robots, conveyors, labor, picking systems, and software and still underperform when those resources are not synchronized. The unit of optimization has to shift from the individual asset to the system.

The same principle is moving upward into the enterprise. Planning, execution, and visibility are increasingly interacting as a continuous loop, which is why AI is collapsing the gap between planning and execution. When decisions become more continuous, organizational boundaries that were tolerable in periodic planning cycles become much more visible sources of friction.

Organizational Design Is Moving into Software

Traditional organizations distribute authority through roles, approval limits, policies, and experience. A transportation manager may approve one level of expedite, a vice president another, and an experienced planner may know when a customer commitment should override a cost target. Agentic systems force companies to express more of those rules explicitly because a machine cannot rely on hallway knowledge or organizational intuition unless it has been translated into context, constraints, and decision rights.

This makes AI architecture inseparable from organizational design. The question is no longer simply whether an agent can determine that an action should be taken, but whether it knows the enterprise objective, understands competing constraints, and possesses the authority to act. The more capable the technology becomes, the more important those management choices become.

The Coordination Premium

Two competitors may eventually have access to comparable models, planning systems, transportation applications, warehouse technologies, and automation. One may nevertheless outperform because its data is accessible, its objectives are aligned, its decision rights are clear, and its people and machines can coordinate around the same outcome. The other may own similar technology but retain fragmented incentives, slow approvals, and conflicting local optimizations.

That difference is what I mean by the coordination premium. As intelligence becomes more abundant, the ability to coordinate intelligence becomes relatively scarce, and supply chain leaders should begin asking not only where AI can be deployed but how humans, agents, applications, and physical systems should work together to accomplish an enterprise objective. The answer will increasingly determine whether AI produces isolated productivity gains or changes the performance of the supply chain as a whole.

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Sustainable Transportation Management Drives Performance

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Sustainable Transportation Management Drives Performance

Supply chain leaders face a growing mandate to improve operational performance while navigating rising transportation costs, supply chain disruption, customer expectations, and increasing sustainability scrutiny. Sustainable transportation management is emerging as a critical strategy for balancing these competing priorities. The challenge is that most companies still manage emissions as a reporting exercise after shipments have occurred rather than as a decision variable within daily transportation planning and execution activities.

Thankfully, modern transportation management technologies now provide the data, analytics, optimization, and AI capabilities needed to incorporate emissions, freight costs, service requirements, and network constraints into a single decision framework. The result is better business decisions that simultaneously improve financial, operational, and environmental outcomes.

Sustainable Transportation Management as an Operational Performance Lever

The emergence of cloud-based transportation management platforms, advanced analytics, and AI enables transportation systems to calculate emissions alongside cost, transit time, service commitments, and network constraints during planning and execution. Transportation planners can compare multiple shipment scenarios before execution. Logistics teams can evaluate route, mode, carrier, and consolidation options while understanding the operational and environmental impacts of each decision.

When sustainability is embedded directly into transportation operations, improvements in environmental performance eliminate inefficiencies that already drive cost and service challenges such as empty miles, underutilized equipment, fragmented shipments, inefficient routing, and poor network visibility.

Consider this example: a leading life science manufacturer leveraged its transportation management tools to eliminate over 1.4 million unnecessary truck miles by improving route planning and load utilization. These changes both improved asset utilization and significantly reduced Scope 3 emissions in their logistics network. This example illustrates how transportation optimization can directly support their sustainability goal to reduce emissions.

Better Decisions Drive Better Sustainability Outcomes

The most successful transportation companies recognize that sustainability outcomes are often a byproduct of better operational decisions. A modern transportation management system (TMS) with embedded sustainability data provides visibility into the environmental impact of the decisions.

Let us examine the case of a transportation planner in the fashion industry who seeks to strategically balance the need for seasonal product availability with transportation costs and emissions. Facing tight launch deadlines, the planner using a modern TMS with embedded sustainability data evaluates scenarios across air, ocean, and expedited ground transportation. The planner identifies which products truly require air freight, and which can be shipped through lower-cost, lower-emission alternatives. The result is on-time delivery for seasonal collections, reduced transportation cost, lower carbon emissions, and improved profitability, demonstrating how better decisions drive better business and sustainability outcomes.

This example highlights the industry shift from sustainability reporting to operationalizing sustainability as a decision factor in transportation management systems. By turning sustainability data into actionable decision support, planners can continuously optimize performance and deliver stronger environmental outcomes without compromising customer commitments.

AI and Analytics Are Driving Sustainable Transportation Optimization

As we know, transportation networks generate enormous amounts of information across carriers, routes, modes, assets, and shipments. This data has been difficult to translate into actionable insights. Modern transportation management systems use AI and advanced data analytics to evaluate multiple variables simultaneously, including transportation cost, transit time, carrier performance, equipment utilization, service requirements, and emissions impact. This enables faster and more accurate forecasting, scenario planning, carrier management, and network optimization. It gives planners the ability to understand tradeoffs, measure progress, and make decisions with greater confidence.

Consider a transportation planner reviewing shipment options for a customer’s delivery. In the past, the planner might compare alternatives based primarily on cost and service. Emissions would be calculated weeks later for reporting purposes. Today’s transportation management system will analyze those factors together.

Better planning insights can also help mitigate carbon-related transportation costs. For example, a retailer planning ocean shipments into Europe can use a TMS to evaluate carrier services and routes against estimated EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) surcharges before booking. Because the EU ETS covers 100% of emissions from voyages between EU ports and 50% of emissions from voyages that begin or end outside the EU, the system can model the carbon-cost exposure of each option.

The Competitive Advantage of Integrated Sustainability Intelligence

Supply chains operate in an increasingly complex environment shaped by disruption, geopolitical uncertainty, cost volatility, and evolving customer expectations. Companies need visibility and intelligence to determine what to do next. Companies that simultaneously manage cost, service, resilience, and emissions are better positioned to adapt to market disruptions, support customer requirements, and drive continuous improvement across their transportation networks.

Transportation providers that embed sustainability intelligence directly into transportation planning gain a competitive edge by making smarter decisions faster. With visibility to cost, services, risk, and emissions in a single platform, they can proactively optimize routes, carrier selection, and mode choices while adapting to disruptions and evolving customer requirements. The result is more agile, resilient, and efficient transportation networks that deliver both business performance and sustainability outcomes, helping providers differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market.

Looking Ahead

Transportation leaders increasingly recognize that sustainability and business performance are not competing priorities. The same technologies that improve efficiency, lower costs, strengthen resilience, and support growth can also reduce emissions.

The companies that move beyond reporting and operationalize sustainability within transportation planning and execution will be better positioned to create value for their customers, stakeholders, and the business itself. Ultimately, sustainability becomes the outcome of running a smarter transportation network.

Laurie Wallace

Laurie Wallace is a supply chain and technology transformation leader with more than 20 years of experience helping organizations improve operational performance through innovation. Her career has focused on enabling business growth through emerging technologies including AI, analytics, digital platforms, mobile solutions, and enterprise software. Drawing on her leadership experience across global technology companies including Blue Yonder, Thomson Reuters, Epsilon, and Nokia, Laurie writes about the intersection of technology, supply chain operations, sustainability, and business performance. She currently leads Sustainable Supply Chain Management and Professional Services Product Marketing at Blue Yonder.

The post Sustainable Transportation Management Drives Performance appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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