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Transpac ocean rates climbing on China-US rebound – May 20, 2025 Update

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Transpac ocean rates climbing on China-US rebound – May 20, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

May 20, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3% to $2,462/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 3% to $3,520/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3% to $2,459/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 1% to $2,979/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 4% to $5.50/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 1% to $3.53/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 1% to $1.88/kg.

Analysis

The clock has started for the China-US tariff deescalation that expires August 14th. It is ticking even faster for US importers sourcing from a long list of US trading partners for whom a reciprocal tariff pause – likewise initiated to allow time for trade deal negotiations – will end on July 9th.

So far though, only the UK has come to a tentative deal with the US, with the US’s insistence on keeping its 25% auto tariff in place reportedly a sticking point in negotiations with the EU, S. Korea and Japan. President Trump recently said he doesn’t expect to come to agreements with all of these countries in time and will therefore likely unilaterally apply tariffs instead, though it is unclear if those levies will be back to the levels announced in April or not.

And to complicate matters further, it is also unclear if those July and August deadlines mean goods need to be loaded at origins by those dates – as was the case with the April 9th tariff deadline – or that goods must arrive in the US by then. The latter would significantly shorten these lower-tariff windows. Ocean shipments from the Far East would have to move in the next week or two to arrive before July 9th.

The May 12th China-US deescalation is driving a big bump in China-US ocean demand after a significant drop in volumes since the US’s 145% tariffs on China took effect in early April.

In response, carriers are introducing mid-month GRIs of $1,000 – $3,000/FEU with similar increases planned for June 1st and 15th, aiming to push rates up to as high as $8,000/FEU in the next few weeks. If successful, rate levels would be about on part with the Asia – US West Coast 2024 high reached last July. Daily transpacific rates as of Monday have already increased about $1,000/FEU to the East Coast and $400/FEU to the West Coast to about $4,400/FEU and $2,800/FEU respectively.

As demand rebounds, carriers are rushing to restore blanked sailings and suspended services cancelled during the April lull. But many transpacific vessels and containers were shifted to other lanes in the interim and are now out of position, leading to some capacity and equipment shortages in China as bookings pick back up.

This tight capacity is also contributing – together with congestion and delays of several days at some Chinese container hubs resulting from the increase in demand as well as some bad weather – to climbing container prices. Given the approaching deadlines, we may also see stronger demand and more upward pressure on rates to the West Coast than to the East Coast as shippers opt for shorter transit times.

With so much ocean freight already frontloaded in the past six months and the 30% minimum China tariff still a substantial cost hike for US importers, some experts think demand and rates will rebound but not surge ahead of the August deadline – even if this week does mark an early start to this year’s peak season that may end earlier than usual as well.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Gold, VP of Supply Chain at the National Retail Federation, told us in our update webinar yesterday that he thinks importers will resume with significant frontloading both out of concern that tariffs on China could climb higher again and because many seasonal goods just couldn’t be ordered and moved yet – meaning that peak season has started and could be a strong one into August.

By this time last year, Asia-Europe’s ocean peak season had already started as shippers tried to adapt to longer, Red Sea-diverted voyages by placing their peak season orders a couple months early. But despite Red Sea diversions still in place, Asia – Europe demand has yet to pick up this time around.

In any case, carriers have announced GRIs for June that aim to push rates up to around $3,200/FEU to Europe and $4,500/FEU to the Mediterranean for around a $1,000/FEU gain – significantly lower than the $6,000 – $7,000/FEU level seen last June. This disparity may reflect the significant challenge that capacity growth is posing for carriers on this lane. The significant congestion that has persisted at many European hubs for weeks now has not supported rate increases yet, though reports that some Asia-Europe capacity is now shifting to the transpacific could help reduce capacity and push these GRIs through.

A significant amount of freighter capacity has left the transpacific air cargo market since the US suspended de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods and e-commerce volumes moving by air cargo on this lane have dropped. With this shift concentrated in the chartered freighter market though, spot rates have for now remained elevated. Freightos Air Index China-US rates of $5.50/kg last week were level with early April prices. That formerly transpacific freighter capacity may be starting to move to other lanes though, which could start impacting rate levels for these markets as well.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The Freight Forwarder Moat Is Getting Shallower

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The Freight Forwarder Moat Is Getting Shallower

Ocean freight forwarding is an $80+ billion market bogged down by the manual processes related to booking management, documentation services, and the coordination labor that holds it all together.

When working with a freight forwarder, you’re buying three things bundled together:

Carrier relationships — access to capacity, negotiated rates, allocation commitments.
Operational data — knowing which carrier fits a given lane, what documents a particular trade corridor requires, how to handle an exception when a booking gets rejected.
Coordination labor — the booking itself, the documents per container (industry estimates range from 9 to 18 depending on the corridor), the re-keying of data across disconnected systems, the email chains chasing confirmations and clearances.

Shippers have always paid for the bundle because you couldn’t get one piece without the others, but that’s changing.

Where the bundle comes apart

Travel agents used to bundle airline relationships, destination expertise, and the labor of putting trips together into a single fee. Aggregator platforms unbundled the pieces, and the booking layer went first because that’s where the volume was. Ocean freight forwarding is in the same position. More than digitizing booking, though, AI is automating it.

The bulk of the volume and labor cost for freight forwarders is tied up in rate comparisons across dozens of carriers, document preparation and routing by trade lane and commodity classification, booking execution against pre-negotiated contracts, and exception triage on rejected bookings.

But this is all high-volume, rule-governed, multi-system coordination where speed and consistency matter more than creativity. Exactly the type of work that AI agents are well-equipped to handle.

Platforms can now ingest a rate agreement, parse surcharges and FAK provisions into a digital rate profile, compare carriers on cost, transit time, and schedule reliability, and execute a booking based on pre-defined parameters, without a human in the loop.

Automating the entire order lifecycle

Every dollar of margin exposure in ocean freight traces back to a decision made without complete information. That means that every action must be rooted in live network data across shipment flows, carrier performance, and insight from inventory and order systems. A platform with that intelligence can automate and accelerate the full workflow from detecting a supply shortfall, selecting a carrier, booking the container, managing the documents, tracking the shipment, and handling exceptions.

A shipper stitching together a rate tool from one vendor, a booking portal from another, a document system from a third, and a visibility feed from a fourth gets digitization. They get a slightly faster version of the same manual process. The full picture still lives in a person’s head, and the handoffs between systems still require human coordination.

While freight forwarders and other intermediaries are also investing in AI, they’re primarily automating their own coordination labor before someone else absorbs it. But they can’t replicate the data advantage of a platform that sits across the entire supply chain.

A forwarder automating its booking desk draws on its own transaction history. A point solution built specifically for ocean booking draws on booking data. A platform processing millions of supply chain events daily across orders, inventory, carrier performance, and live shipment status, has a different signal base entirely. Carrier selection informed by real-time schedule reliability, live network disruption, and your actual inventory positions is structurally more accurate than carrier selection informed by historical rate tables.

The shrinking intermediary layer

The moats around freight forwarders’ profit margins are eroding, and the lines between legacy endpoint solutions are blurring. High-complexity corridors and specialized commodities still need human expertise, but the bread-and-butter containerized freight that makes up the bulk of forwarder revenue is the volume where automated workflows shine.

Meanwhile, software providers will have a hard time selling dashboards and chatbots to specific teams compared to AI-native platforms offering a single operating system across all supply chain operations, and serving downstream stakeholders.

The question for forwarders is how long they can keep patching automation onto a fragmented architecture with a booking tool here, a document system there, people bridging the handoffs in between. And how much revenue sits in structured, repeatable work that a connected platform absorbs?

For shippers, the choice is whether to invest in a platform that automates the order-to-delivery and exception lifecycle, or keep paying others to hold the pieces together. The second option is a decision to fund the intermediary layer sitting between them and their own data.

The post The Freight Forwarder Moat Is Getting Shallower appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Supply Chain and Logistics News Week of May 7th 2026

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Supply Chain And Logistics News Week Of May 7th 2026

The logistics and supply chain landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation as industries move from rigid, low-cost models toward strategies defined by agility and resilience. This week’s roundup explores how major players are navigating this shift, from Amazon’s bold move to offer its massive infrastructure as a standalone service to Ford’s strategic manufacturing reset in the EV sector. We also dive into the critical human element in modern cost engineering, the logistical reimagining of energy corridors due to geopolitical risks, and the new AI-driven tools closing the gap between inventory detection and real-time execution. Together, these developments highlight a common theme: the pursuit of flexibility and data-driven intelligence in an increasingly unpredictable global market.

Top Supply Chain Stories from this Week:

Modern Cost Engineering Evolution: Rewiring the Human Element for Supply Chain Resilience

In the latest shift for cost engineering, the focus is moving beyond purely digital tools to address the critical human element required for true supply chain resilience. As industrial organizations transition from traditional backward-looking estimates to modern “should-cost” methods powered by AI and digital twins, the real challenge lies in workforce transformation. Success in this new landscape requires a significant cultural shift, moving away from isolated departmental silos toward cross-functional collaboration. By reskilling traditional estimators to act as strategic consultants—capable of interpreting material science and operational constraints—companies can evolve from simple price negotiation to collaborative manufacturing improvements that ensure mutual profitability and long-term stability.

Hormuz Risk Is Redrawing the Supply Chain Geography of Energy

Geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing a fundamental shift in energy logistics, moving the industry away from lowest-cost network design toward a risk-adjusted model. With the waterway handling roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, repeated disruptions have transformed infrastructure like pipelines, storage terminals, and deep-water ports outside the Persian Gulf into high-value strategic assets. Nations and corporations are no longer viewing these as simple logistics nodes, but as essential escape routes that provide the optionality and recovery time needed to withstand chokepoint failures. This selective redesign of the global energy map signals a new era where geography and physical redundancy are the primary drivers of supply chain resilience.

Ford’s Manufacturing Reset Shows How Automakers Are Rebuilding the EV Supply Chain

Ford’s manufacturing pivot represents a fundamental shift from aggressive electric vehicle expansion toward capital discipline and supply chain flexibility. By taking a $19.5 billion write-down and restructuring battery joint ventures, the company is moving away from rigid, single-purpose production lines in favor of multi-energy platforms that can adapt to fluctuating demand for hybrids and EVs. A key component of this reset is the repurposing of battery manufacturing assets in Kentucky and Michigan for stationary energy storage and data center support. This strategy transforms these facilities into flexible energy infrastructure rather than just automotive supply nodes. Ultimately, Ford is signaling that the next phase of the market will be defined by the ability to manage uncertainty through cross-functional asset utilization and a focus on manufacturing-driven affordability.

How FourKites Connects Stockout Detection to Freight Execution in Minutes

FourKites has launched a unified solution that bridges the gap between stockout detection and freight execution, reducing resolution time from hours to less than five minutes. By integrating its Inventory Twin and Booking Connect AI, the platform eliminates the traditional “manual scavenger hunt” where planners had to jump between ERPs and carrier portals to resolve inventory gaps. The system uses decision intelligence to identify stockout risks up to six weeks in advance and provides ranked recommendations for corrective transfers based on cost, speed, and carrier performance. This closed-loop workflow allows planners to execute optimized shipping options with a single click, addressing the massive financial impact of inventory distortion and reducing the need for expensive, unplanned expedited shipping.

Amazon Launches “Supply Chain Services” Leveraging its Global Logistics Network

Amazon has officially launched Amazon Supply Chain Services (ASCS), a move that decouples its massive logistics infrastructure from its retail marketplace to serve as a standalone utility for all businesses. Similar to the trajectory of Amazon Web Services (AWS), the platform opens up Amazon’s multimodal freight, automated warehousing, and last-mile parcel delivery networks to companies regardless of whether they sell on Amazon. Major early adopters like Procter & Gamble, 3M, and Lands’ End are already leveraging the service to move everything from raw materials to finished products. By consolidating fragmented logistics contracts into a single automated interface, Amazon aims to use its scale—currently moving 13 billion items annually—to provide businesses with end-to-end visibility and 96.4% on-time delivery rates, signaling a significant new challenge to traditional 3PLs and carriers like FedEx and UPS.

Song of the week:

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How FourKites Connects Stockout Detection to Freight Execution in Minutes

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How Fourkites Connects Stockout Detection To Freight Execution In Minutes

FourKites is bridging the gap between identifying a problem and solving it. With the integration of Inventory Twin and Booking Connect AI. Traditionally, supply chain planners have been stuck in a manual scavenger hunt whenever a stockout alert surfaced, jumping between ERPs to find surplus stock and carrier portals to secure freight. This fragmented process typically took hours, often forcing companies to rely on expensive, last-minute expedited shipping or facing steep On-Time In-Full (OTIF) penalties to avoid customer dissatisfaction. By unifying these disparate data streams, the new solution allows teams to detect risks two to six weeks in advance and execute corrective transfers from a single, seamless workflow.

The impact on operational efficiency is significant, reducing the resolution time from detection to execution from several hours to less than five minutes. Instead of just receiving a warning, planners are presented with recommendations powered by Decision Intelligence that include the fastest, cheapest, and most optimal shipping options based on real-time carrier performance data. This closed-loop system directly addresses the 1.73 trillion dollar global issue of inventory distortion and aims to eliminate the 15-25 hours planners previously spent on manual coordination.

By keeping a human in the loop to select the best recommendation with a single click, FourKites ensures that exceptions are resolved without ever leaving the platform. This integration helps protect freight budgets, where unplanned expedited shipping often consumes up to 48% of total spend. This launch represents a shift from reactive firefighting to proactive execution, allowing teams to move away from costly safety stock and focus on high-value responsibilities. Supply chain planner responsibilities are changing with the continued developments of AI and the de-siloing of disparate systems.

FourKites is a supply chain technology provider that operates a global real-time visibility network tracking over 3.2 million shipments daily across 200 countries and territories. By integrating data from 1.1 million carriers across all modes (road, rail, ocean, and air), the platform uses AI-powered “digital workers” to automate exception resolution and provide predictive insights. More than 1,600 global brands, including leaders in the CPG and Food & Beverage sectors, trust FourKites to transform their logistics from reactive tracking into proactive, intelligent orchestration.

Read the full ARC brief breaking down the new FourKites solution here: https://www.fourkites.com/research/arc-advisory-stockout-detection-freight-execution/

The post How FourKites Connects Stockout Detection to Freight Execution in Minutes appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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