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Transpac ocean rates climbing on China-US rebound – May 20, 2025 Update

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Transpac ocean rates climbing on China-US rebound – May 20, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

May 20, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3% to $2,462/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 3% to $3,520/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3% to $2,459/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 1% to $2,979/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 4% to $5.50/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 1% to $3.53/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 1% to $1.88/kg.

Analysis

The clock has started for the China-US tariff deescalation that expires August 14th. It is ticking even faster for US importers sourcing from a long list of US trading partners for whom a reciprocal tariff pause – likewise initiated to allow time for trade deal negotiations – will end on July 9th.

So far though, only the UK has come to a tentative deal with the US, with the US’s insistence on keeping its 25% auto tariff in place reportedly a sticking point in negotiations with the EU, S. Korea and Japan. President Trump recently said he doesn’t expect to come to agreements with all of these countries in time and will therefore likely unilaterally apply tariffs instead, though it is unclear if those levies will be back to the levels announced in April or not.

And to complicate matters further, it is also unclear if those July and August deadlines mean goods need to be loaded at origins by those dates – as was the case with the April 9th tariff deadline – or that goods must arrive in the US by then. The latter would significantly shorten these lower-tariff windows. Ocean shipments from the Far East would have to move in the next week or two to arrive before July 9th.

The May 12th China-US deescalation is driving a big bump in China-US ocean demand after a significant drop in volumes since the US’s 145% tariffs on China took effect in early April.

In response, carriers are introducing mid-month GRIs of $1,000 – $3,000/FEU with similar increases planned for June 1st and 15th, aiming to push rates up to as high as $8,000/FEU in the next few weeks. If successful, rate levels would be about on part with the Asia – US West Coast 2024 high reached last July. Daily transpacific rates as of Monday have already increased about $1,000/FEU to the East Coast and $400/FEU to the West Coast to about $4,400/FEU and $2,800/FEU respectively.

As demand rebounds, carriers are rushing to restore blanked sailings and suspended services cancelled during the April lull. But many transpacific vessels and containers were shifted to other lanes in the interim and are now out of position, leading to some capacity and equipment shortages in China as bookings pick back up.

This tight capacity is also contributing – together with congestion and delays of several days at some Chinese container hubs resulting from the increase in demand as well as some bad weather – to climbing container prices. Given the approaching deadlines, we may also see stronger demand and more upward pressure on rates to the West Coast than to the East Coast as shippers opt for shorter transit times.

With so much ocean freight already frontloaded in the past six months and the 30% minimum China tariff still a substantial cost hike for US importers, some experts think demand and rates will rebound but not surge ahead of the August deadline – even if this week does mark an early start to this year’s peak season that may end earlier than usual as well.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Gold, VP of Supply Chain at the National Retail Federation, told us in our update webinar yesterday that he thinks importers will resume with significant frontloading both out of concern that tariffs on China could climb higher again and because many seasonal goods just couldn’t be ordered and moved yet – meaning that peak season has started and could be a strong one into August.

By this time last year, Asia-Europe’s ocean peak season had already started as shippers tried to adapt to longer, Red Sea-diverted voyages by placing their peak season orders a couple months early. But despite Red Sea diversions still in place, Asia – Europe demand has yet to pick up this time around.

In any case, carriers have announced GRIs for June that aim to push rates up to around $3,200/FEU to Europe and $4,500/FEU to the Mediterranean for around a $1,000/FEU gain – significantly lower than the $6,000 – $7,000/FEU level seen last June. This disparity may reflect the significant challenge that capacity growth is posing for carriers on this lane. The significant congestion that has persisted at many European hubs for weeks now has not supported rate increases yet, though reports that some Asia-Europe capacity is now shifting to the transpacific could help reduce capacity and push these GRIs through.

A significant amount of freighter capacity has left the transpacific air cargo market since the US suspended de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods and e-commerce volumes moving by air cargo on this lane have dropped. With this shift concentrated in the chartered freighter market though, spot rates have for now remained elevated. Freightos Air Index China-US rates of $5.50/kg last week were level with early April prices. That formerly transpacific freighter capacity may be starting to move to other lanes though, which could start impacting rate levels for these markets as well.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution

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Warehouse Orchestration: Solving The Daily Breakdown Between Plan And Execution

In most warehouses today, the problem is not whether work gets done; it is how much effort it takes to keep everything aligned and on track. Every day, there is a breakdown between the plan and executing the plan. Labor plans, inbound schedules, picking priorities, and automation all operate from valid assumptions, but not always the same ones. The gaps between them are filled in real time by supervisors and teams, making constant adjustments. That is what keeps operations running, but it is also what makes them fragile.

It is a challenge many operations recognize. Even with modern systems in place, execution still depends heavily on human coordination. Warehouse orchestration is the shift from managing tasks independently to coordinating the entire operation and ensuring decisions across the system stay aligned as conditions change. The best way to understand what that means in practice is not through a system diagram, but through the lens and experience of the people running the floor.

Consider Maria, a warehouse supervisor responsible for keeping a high-volume operation on track. She is experienced, practical, and steady under pressure, but what she is really managing is not just work; it is complexity.

At any given moment, she balances labor availability, work queues, inbound variability, equipment status, and shifting order priorities. Those inputs are not wrong. They are just not aligned. It is her job to bridge that gap in real time.

A shift that starts “normal” … until it does not

Maria arrives before the floor fully wakes up. Her first stop is not the dock or the pick module; it is yesterday’s reality. What shipped? What did not? Where did the backlog form? Which waves did not behave as the plan assumed? She is not looking for blame; she is looking for drift. Drift is what turns into firefighting later.

Demand shifted over the weekend, but the pick face still reflects last week’s reality. One area is short-staffed; another has idle labor. When the team built the labor plan, it made sense, but the day had already moved on. The team scheduled inbound; however, it is not predictable. Every ETA is a best guess, and how trailers show up rarely matches how they appear on a screen.

Individually, nothing here is catastrophic, but warehouses do not fail all at once. They gradually lose alignment between plan and execution. The team compensates in real time by moving people, reprioritizing work, working around automation delays, and making judgment calls. And the shift “works,” but there is a cost:

Overtime, which did not need to happen.

Detention fees, which show up later.

Service misses, driven by wrong priorities rather than a lack of effort.

Leaders who spend more time reacting than improving.

These challenges are the reality across many operations. Execution is strong, but coordination is fragile.

The real bottleneck: decisions are fragmented

Most warehouses are not short on tools. They have WMS, robotics systems, labor tools, and planning solutions. Each one does its job well, but they do not make decisions together. Each system optimizes its scope based on different priorities or timings. The gaps between them are filled manually by people like Maria. In an environment with less variability, that might work, but in most cases:

Demand changes faster and more frequently.

Labor is less predictable.

Automation introduces new dependencies.

Customer expectations continue to rise.

Under these conditions, static plans, especially labor plans and wave structures, can drift out of sync before the shift is halfway through. That is when the operation starts relying on “manual heroics.” Experienced supervisors keep things running. It is hard to scale, and even harder to sustain.

AI-driven warehouse orchestration: keeping the operation aligned

Warehouse orchestration and the power of AI address this gap. Because it is not just about executing tasks, it is about coordinating decisions across the operation and using intelligence to see, analyze, and recommend actions with full visibility to all the variables. Instead of managing isolated activities, intelligent orchestration continuously aligns:

Labor to demand.

Inbound and outbound priorities.

Work sequencing across zones.

Automation with human workflows.

It does this in real time, as conditions change. Variability is constant, and it is not realistic to eliminate. The goal is to see the risk earlier, respond faster and more consistently, and prevent disruption.

Back to Maria: when the system helps carry the load

Now imagine Maria running that same Monday, but operations now behave like a connected ecosystem, not a collection of islands. Before the shift even starts, she is not just reviewing what happened yesterday. She is looking at a forward-facing view that is already adjusting based on incoming signals. She is getting visibility into risk early before it is a problem. Inbound appointments are not just a schedule; they are a ranked set of trade-offs that balance urgency, detention risk, inventory needs, and outbound commitments. Her decisions are clearer because the system prioritizes them, reflecting business impact. Slotting does not rely on disruptive, periodic re-slot projects that leave the pick face to decay. Instead, optimization and learning continuously shape placement, folding the highest value moves into natural replenishment windows and explaining the “why” in business language.

And during the shift, when one area starts falling behind, Maria does not have to guess the best move. She can see the impact of her options:

Shifting labor.

Reprioritizing tasks.

Adjusting sequencing.

Instead of relying on instinct and experience alone, she has visibility into how decisions affect the entire operation. She is still in control, but the system is helping her avoid problems instead of chasing them. And that changes how the shift feels. It is not static; it is dynamic, but stable.

The key ingredients: unified data, SaaS, AI & ML, connected systems

Behind the scenes, this comes down to unified data, SaaS, AI, ML, and systems that work together. When you connect your warehouse systems, add real-time operational signals and visibility to systems outside of the warehouse, and apply AI and ML for speed and precision, you are working from a single source of truth and an interconnected ecosystem of systems. As a result, users make decisions with a broader context. Then the operation starts to learn; outcomes inform future decisions, improving how the system responds over time. And now, humans are not the only thing holding the performance together.

Why this matters right now

For supply chain leaders, this is not only about efficiency. It is about operating in a world where volatility is constant. Across industries, the specifics vary, but the challenges are consistent:

Handling demand swings without inflating labor costs

Scaling operations without scaling complexity

Maintaining service levels under pressure

The operations that succeed are the ones that do not just react faster; they are the ones that operate in alignment.

The shift ahead

A single, modern technology will not define the future of warehouse management. It will be defined by how well operations coordinate across people, systems, and workflows in real time. That is what intelligent warehouse orchestration enables. It turns the warehouse from a collection of well-run processes into a connected system that can adjust continuously. Because in the end, the goal is not just to execute the plan. It is to keep the plan from breaking when the shift starts.

By Tammy Kulesa
Senior Director, Solution & Industry Marketing, Blue Yonder

Tammy is the Senior Director of Solution and Industry Marketing, leading go-to-market strategy and thought leadership for Blue Yonder Cognitive Solutions for Execution, and the LSP Industry. With over 20 years of experience in technology marketing and nearly a decade focused on retail, logistics, and supply chain, Tammy brings a deep understanding of the operational and strategic challenges facing today’s supply chain leaders. A passionate advocate for innovation and collaboration, Tammy has a proven track record of connecting market needs with transformative solutions.

The post Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action

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Supply chain AI cannot stop at better insight. To create operational value, AI recommendations must connect to workflows, execution systems, approval paths, and measurable outcomes.

Artificial intelligence is quickly becoming part of the supply chain technology conversation. Vendors are adding copilots, recommendation engines, autonomous agents, and predictive analytics to planning, transportation, warehousing, procurement, and visibility applications. The promise is clear: better decisions, faster responses, and more adaptive operations.

But there is a critical distinction that supply chain leaders need to keep in view. An AI system that identifies a problem is not the same as an AI system that helps solve it.

A demand-planning model may identify a likely stockout. A transportation model may flag a lane disruption. A supplier-risk model may detect a deteriorating delivery pattern. Those are useful insights. But unless the system can connect that insight to an action pathway, the burden still falls on the planner, transportation manager, procurement team, or customer service group to decide what happens next.

That is where many AI deployments will either create real value or stall out.

For a deeper look at the architecture behind operational AI, including A2A, MCP, RAG, Graph RAG, and connected decision systems, download the full white paper: AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution.

Insight Is Not Execution

Supply chains do not run on insight alone. They run on orders, shipments, purchase orders, inventory moves, carrier tenders, production schedules, warehouse labor plans, customer commitments, and exception workflows.

A recommendation that remains in a dashboard is not yet operational AI. It is decision support. Decision support can be valuable, but it does not fundamentally change the operating model unless it becomes part of the execution process.

The question is not simply, “Can the AI make a recommendation?” The better question is, “Can the organization act on that recommendation in a controlled, auditable, and timely way?”

For example, if an AI system predicts that a regional distribution center will run short of inventory, several action pathways may be available. The company might expedite inbound supply, rebalance inventory from another facility, substitute a product, modify customer allocation rules, or adjust promised delivery dates.

Each action has a cost, a service implication, and a governance requirement.

Operational AI must understand those pathways. It must also know which actions it can recommend, which it can execute automatically, and which require human approval.

The Execution Layer Matters

This is why integration with core execution systems is so important. AI cannot operate effectively if it sits outside the systems where work is actually performed.

For supply chain AI to become operational, it must connect to transportation management systems, warehouse management systems, order management systems, ERP, procurement platforms, supplier portals, customer service workflows, and control tower environments.

Without these connections, AI may diagnose problems faster, but it will not necessarily resolve them faster.

The difference is material. An AI assistant that says, “This shipment is likely to miss its delivery appointment,” is useful. An AI-enabled workflow that identifies the delay, calculates downstream service risk, recommends a carrier alternative, checks cost thresholds, initiates an approval workflow, and updates customer service is much more powerful.

That is the move from analytics to operational intelligence.

Human-in-the-Loop Still Matters

This does not mean every AI recommendation should become an automated action. Supply chain decisions often involve tradeoffs among cost, service, risk, inventory, and customer relationships. Many require judgment.

The more practical model is tiered autonomy.

Low-risk, high-frequency actions may be automated. Moderate-risk decisions may require planner approval. High-impact exceptions may require escalation to a manager or executive.

This is not a weakness. It is a design requirement.

A well-architected operational AI system should know when to act, when to recommend, and when to escalate. It should also capture the outcome so the system can learn whether the decision improved performance.

Closed-Loop Learning Is the Real Prize

The most important capability may not be the first recommendation. It may be the feedback loop that follows.

Did the expedited shipment prevent the stockout? Did the alternate supplier meet the delivery date? Did the inventory transfer protect service without creating a shortage elsewhere? Did the customer accept the revised promise date?

These outcomes should not disappear into operational noise. They should feed back into the intelligence layer.

That is how AI becomes more than a static recommendation tool. It becomes a learning system embedded in the daily operating rhythm of the supply chain.

What This Means for Buyers

Supply chain leaders evaluating AI-enabled software should press vendors on action pathways. The relevant questions are straightforward.

Can the system connect recommendations to execution workflows? Can it distinguish between automated, approved, and escalated actions? Can it operate across functions, not just inside one application? Can it create an audit trail? Can it learn from outcomes?

The vendors that answer these questions well will move beyond AI features. They will become part of the operating architecture.

The next phase of supply chain AI will not be won by the tool that produces the most impressive recommendation. It will be won by the systems that help companies act faster, with more control, better context, and measurable outcomes.

The post How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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