Connect with us

Non classé

January 21, 2025 Update

Published

on

January 21, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update helps you stay on top of the latest developments in international freight by giving you the rundown on the latest economic data, ocean and air demand trends, rate data – and anything else impacting the market.

Judah Levine

January 21, 2025

Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index:

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 10% to $5,321/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 3% to $6,715/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 17% to $4,694/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 7% to $5,283/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 11% to $5.26/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 9% to $3.19/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $2.16/kg.

Analysis

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Red Sea Crisis

The six-week first stage of the Israel – Hamas ceasefire began on Sunday bringing a reprieve to the fifteen months of fighting which were also the pretext for Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis released statements announcing that as long as the ceasefire holds they will not attack nearly all Red Sea traffic. The group claims it will not target vessels making Israeli port calls or partially owned by Israeli companies or individuals, but will attack vessels wholly-owned by Israeli entities or flying the Israeli flag and would also attack US or UK vessels in response to any new US/UK strikes of Houthi positions in Yemen.

Some experts are skeptical that the Houthis – who may have significant financial as well as geopolitical incentives to keep the Red Sea unsafe – will refrain from additional attacks even during the first stage of the ceasefire. Their current commitment only to attack Israeli vessels is similar to their stated scope of targets in late 2023 which quickly expanded to include virtually any passing ship.

Another challenge to optimism that the current quiet marks the beginning of the end for the Red Sea crisis is that, even assuming the Houthis stand down for the next six weeks, sustained quiet is contingent upon Hamas and Israel agreeing on terms for the second and then third stages of the ceasefire. Negotiations for the second stage are set to begin on February 5th, but President Trump already stated that he is not confident the ceasefire will hold into the, in many ways more challenging, later stages.

Ocean carriers see current developments as a promising first step towards the resumption of Red Sea traffic. But despite reports that CMA CGM is planning to increase its use of the Suez Canal, most carriers – as well as many shippers and forwarders – will not take the costly and complicated concrete steps to return to the Red Sea until they are confident that the route is and will remain safe.

When Red Sea transits do resume though, the adjustment period to the shorter route for traffic from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as some volumes to North America could last for several weeks or longer. Schedule disruptions and vessel bunching in Europe and Asia as ships start arriving early will cause some congestion and delays at these hubs, which could put upward pressure on rates in the short term.

In the longer term though, the capacity that was absorbed by Red Sea diversions and that was responsible for container rates of at least double the norm throughout 2024 will be released back into the market. This surge in capacity will put significant downward pressure on rates. Some carriers have expressed confidence that slow steaming and an increase in scrapping, idling and blanked sailings will prevent a rate collapse. But the possible supply surplus could result in loss-making prices as low as those seen in late 2023 when transpacific rates dipped to $1,200/FEU and Asia – Europe and transatlantic prices slumped to about $1,000/FEU.

For the time being ex-Asia rates are easing as the lead up to Lunar New Year has ended. As the new alliances prepare to launch, some of the rate decrease may also be due to some increased competition between carriers. Transpacific prices could rebound somewhat just after LNY on some backlog of shipments not moved before the holiday, though a backlog and price bump are less likely for Asia – Europe as shippers moved goods earlier than usual this year.

Trump Trade Memo, Tariffs and De Minimis

The other major developments for freight markets this week were linked to President Trump taking office.

Though the president stated he is not ready to announce a global tariff just yet, he said he aims to place his promised 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada by February 1st. Despite that short timeline, which some observers think is possible via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Trump’s America First Trade Policy memorandum, issued just after the inauguration, implies a longer runway before those new tariffs.

Among other things – and in addition to calling for a review of the USMCA and an assessment of fentanyl imports, both relevant to the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico – the sweeping trade memo directs the relevant federal agencies to investigate and make recommendations regarding the state of US manufacturing and the overall trade deficit; review exemptions to steel and aluminum tariffs; determine China’s degree of compliance with existing trade agreements; and assess the losses to tariffs as well as the risks linked to the ongoing surge of de minimis imports.

These requests for investigations and recommendations echo those Trump issued during his first administration, and which were the first step in the often months-long process culminating in the actual implementation of new tariffs or trade policies during Trump’s first administration. This week’s memo sets April deadlines for the requested reports and recommendations, which may make a February 1st tariff hike less likely.

Back in September the Biden administration announced plans to significantly close the de minimis exemption to Chinese goods. That directive resulted on Friday in a US Customs and Border Protection notice of proposed rulemaking that triggers a 60-day review period and which could result in those sweeping changes to Chinese imports’ eligibility for the de minimis exemption. Trump has not spoken much about the de minimis issue specifically previously, but the topic’s inclusion in the memo makes it likely that the rule change could move forward under the new administration.
The flood of de minimis parcels from China – often from e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein – since mid-2023 is the main driver of air cargo rates that, even post-peak season, remain highly elevated at more than $5.00/kg from China to North America, and more than $3.00/kg to Europe. Legislation that bans many of those packages from entering the US via the quick and inexpensive de minimis route could significantly curb air cargo volumes into the US, freeing up capacity and putting downward pressure on rates as a result.

Freight news travels faster than cargo

Get industry-leading insights in your inbox.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

Freightos Terminal helps tens of thousands of freight pros stay informed across all their ports and lanes

The post January 21, 2025 Update appeared first on Freightos.

Continue Reading

Non classé

Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution

Published

on

By

Warehouse Orchestration: Solving The Daily Breakdown Between Plan And Execution

In most warehouses today, the problem is not whether work gets done; it is how much effort it takes to keep everything aligned and on track. Every day, there is a breakdown between the plan and executing the plan. Labor plans, inbound schedules, picking priorities, and automation all operate from valid assumptions, but not always the same ones. The gaps between them are filled in real time by supervisors and teams, making constant adjustments. That is what keeps operations running, but it is also what makes them fragile.

It is a challenge many operations recognize. Even with modern systems in place, execution still depends heavily on human coordination. Warehouse orchestration is the shift from managing tasks independently to coordinating the entire operation and ensuring decisions across the system stay aligned as conditions change. The best way to understand what that means in practice is not through a system diagram, but through the lens and experience of the people running the floor.

Consider Maria, a warehouse supervisor responsible for keeping a high-volume operation on track. She is experienced, practical, and steady under pressure, but what she is really managing is not just work; it is complexity.

At any given moment, she balances labor availability, work queues, inbound variability, equipment status, and shifting order priorities. Those inputs are not wrong. They are just not aligned. It is her job to bridge that gap in real time.

A shift that starts “normal” … until it does not

Maria arrives before the floor fully wakes up. Her first stop is not the dock or the pick module; it is yesterday’s reality. What shipped? What did not? Where did the backlog form? Which waves did not behave as the plan assumed? She is not looking for blame; she is looking for drift. Drift is what turns into firefighting later.

Demand shifted over the weekend, but the pick face still reflects last week’s reality. One area is short-staffed; another has idle labor. When the team built the labor plan, it made sense, but the day had already moved on. The team scheduled inbound; however, it is not predictable. Every ETA is a best guess, and how trailers show up rarely matches how they appear on a screen.

Individually, nothing here is catastrophic, but warehouses do not fail all at once. They gradually lose alignment between plan and execution. The team compensates in real time by moving people, reprioritizing work, working around automation delays, and making judgment calls. And the shift “works,” but there is a cost:

Overtime, which did not need to happen.

Detention fees, which show up later.

Service misses, driven by wrong priorities rather than a lack of effort.

Leaders who spend more time reacting than improving.

These challenges are the reality across many operations. Execution is strong, but coordination is fragile.

The real bottleneck: decisions are fragmented

Most warehouses are not short on tools. They have WMS, robotics systems, labor tools, and planning solutions. Each one does its job well, but they do not make decisions together. Each system optimizes its scope based on different priorities or timings. The gaps between them are filled manually by people like Maria. In an environment with less variability, that might work, but in most cases:

Demand changes faster and more frequently.

Labor is less predictable.

Automation introduces new dependencies.

Customer expectations continue to rise.

Under these conditions, static plans, especially labor plans and wave structures, can drift out of sync before the shift is halfway through. That is when the operation starts relying on “manual heroics.” Experienced supervisors keep things running. It is hard to scale, and even harder to sustain.

AI-driven warehouse orchestration: keeping the operation aligned

Warehouse orchestration and the power of AI address this gap. Because it is not just about executing tasks, it is about coordinating decisions across the operation and using intelligence to see, analyze, and recommend actions with full visibility to all the variables. Instead of managing isolated activities, intelligent orchestration continuously aligns:

Labor to demand.

Inbound and outbound priorities.

Work sequencing across zones.

Automation with human workflows.

It does this in real time, as conditions change. Variability is constant, and it is not realistic to eliminate. The goal is to see the risk earlier, respond faster and more consistently, and prevent disruption.

Back to Maria: when the system helps carry the load

Now imagine Maria running that same Monday, but operations now behave like a connected ecosystem, not a collection of islands. Before the shift even starts, she is not just reviewing what happened yesterday. She is looking at a forward-facing view that is already adjusting based on incoming signals. She is getting visibility into risk early before it is a problem. Inbound appointments are not just a schedule; they are a ranked set of trade-offs that balance urgency, detention risk, inventory needs, and outbound commitments. Her decisions are clearer because the system prioritizes them, reflecting business impact. Slotting does not rely on disruptive, periodic re-slot projects that leave the pick face to decay. Instead, optimization and learning continuously shape placement, folding the highest value moves into natural replenishment windows and explaining the “why” in business language.

And during the shift, when one area starts falling behind, Maria does not have to guess the best move. She can see the impact of her options:

Shifting labor.

Reprioritizing tasks.

Adjusting sequencing.

Instead of relying on instinct and experience alone, she has visibility into how decisions affect the entire operation. She is still in control, but the system is helping her avoid problems instead of chasing them. And that changes how the shift feels. It is not static; it is dynamic, but stable.

The key ingredients: unified data, SaaS, AI & ML, connected systems

Behind the scenes, this comes down to unified data, SaaS, AI, ML, and systems that work together. When you connect your warehouse systems, add real-time operational signals and visibility to systems outside of the warehouse, and apply AI and ML for speed and precision, you are working from a single source of truth and an interconnected ecosystem of systems. As a result, users make decisions with a broader context. Then the operation starts to learn; outcomes inform future decisions, improving how the system responds over time. And now, humans are not the only thing holding the performance together.

Why this matters right now

For supply chain leaders, this is not only about efficiency. It is about operating in a world where volatility is constant. Across industries, the specifics vary, but the challenges are consistent:

Handling demand swings without inflating labor costs

Scaling operations without scaling complexity

Maintaining service levels under pressure

The operations that succeed are the ones that do not just react faster; they are the ones that operate in alignment.

The shift ahead

A single, modern technology will not define the future of warehouse management. It will be defined by how well operations coordinate across people, systems, and workflows in real time. That is what intelligent warehouse orchestration enables. It turns the warehouse from a collection of well-run processes into a connected system that can adjust continuously. Because in the end, the goal is not just to execute the plan. It is to keep the plan from breaking when the shift starts.

By Tammy Kulesa
Senior Director, Solution & Industry Marketing, Blue Yonder

Tammy is the Senior Director of Solution and Industry Marketing, leading go-to-market strategy and thought leadership for Blue Yonder Cognitive Solutions for Execution, and the LSP Industry. With over 20 years of experience in technology marketing and nearly a decade focused on retail, logistics, and supply chain, Tammy brings a deep understanding of the operational and strategic challenges facing today’s supply chain leaders. A passionate advocate for innovation and collaboration, Tammy has a proven track record of connecting market needs with transformative solutions.

The post Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

Continue Reading

Non classé

How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action

Published

on

By

Supply chain AI cannot stop at better insight. To create operational value, AI recommendations must connect to workflows, execution systems, approval paths, and measurable outcomes.

Artificial intelligence is quickly becoming part of the supply chain technology conversation. Vendors are adding copilots, recommendation engines, autonomous agents, and predictive analytics to planning, transportation, warehousing, procurement, and visibility applications. The promise is clear: better decisions, faster responses, and more adaptive operations.

But there is a critical distinction that supply chain leaders need to keep in view. An AI system that identifies a problem is not the same as an AI system that helps solve it.

A demand-planning model may identify a likely stockout. A transportation model may flag a lane disruption. A supplier-risk model may detect a deteriorating delivery pattern. Those are useful insights. But unless the system can connect that insight to an action pathway, the burden still falls on the planner, transportation manager, procurement team, or customer service group to decide what happens next.

That is where many AI deployments will either create real value or stall out.

For a deeper look at the architecture behind operational AI, including A2A, MCP, RAG, Graph RAG, and connected decision systems, download the full white paper: AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution.

Insight Is Not Execution

Supply chains do not run on insight alone. They run on orders, shipments, purchase orders, inventory moves, carrier tenders, production schedules, warehouse labor plans, customer commitments, and exception workflows.

A recommendation that remains in a dashboard is not yet operational AI. It is decision support. Decision support can be valuable, but it does not fundamentally change the operating model unless it becomes part of the execution process.

The question is not simply, “Can the AI make a recommendation?” The better question is, “Can the organization act on that recommendation in a controlled, auditable, and timely way?”

For example, if an AI system predicts that a regional distribution center will run short of inventory, several action pathways may be available. The company might expedite inbound supply, rebalance inventory from another facility, substitute a product, modify customer allocation rules, or adjust promised delivery dates.

Each action has a cost, a service implication, and a governance requirement.

Operational AI must understand those pathways. It must also know which actions it can recommend, which it can execute automatically, and which require human approval.

The Execution Layer Matters

This is why integration with core execution systems is so important. AI cannot operate effectively if it sits outside the systems where work is actually performed.

For supply chain AI to become operational, it must connect to transportation management systems, warehouse management systems, order management systems, ERP, procurement platforms, supplier portals, customer service workflows, and control tower environments.

Without these connections, AI may diagnose problems faster, but it will not necessarily resolve them faster.

The difference is material. An AI assistant that says, “This shipment is likely to miss its delivery appointment,” is useful. An AI-enabled workflow that identifies the delay, calculates downstream service risk, recommends a carrier alternative, checks cost thresholds, initiates an approval workflow, and updates customer service is much more powerful.

That is the move from analytics to operational intelligence.

Human-in-the-Loop Still Matters

This does not mean every AI recommendation should become an automated action. Supply chain decisions often involve tradeoffs among cost, service, risk, inventory, and customer relationships. Many require judgment.

The more practical model is tiered autonomy.

Low-risk, high-frequency actions may be automated. Moderate-risk decisions may require planner approval. High-impact exceptions may require escalation to a manager or executive.

This is not a weakness. It is a design requirement.

A well-architected operational AI system should know when to act, when to recommend, and when to escalate. It should also capture the outcome so the system can learn whether the decision improved performance.

Closed-Loop Learning Is the Real Prize

The most important capability may not be the first recommendation. It may be the feedback loop that follows.

Did the expedited shipment prevent the stockout? Did the alternate supplier meet the delivery date? Did the inventory transfer protect service without creating a shortage elsewhere? Did the customer accept the revised promise date?

These outcomes should not disappear into operational noise. They should feed back into the intelligence layer.

That is how AI becomes more than a static recommendation tool. It becomes a learning system embedded in the daily operating rhythm of the supply chain.

What This Means for Buyers

Supply chain leaders evaluating AI-enabled software should press vendors on action pathways. The relevant questions are straightforward.

Can the system connect recommendations to execution workflows? Can it distinguish between automated, approved, and escalated actions? Can it operate across functions, not just inside one application? Can it create an audit trail? Can it learn from outcomes?

The vendors that answer these questions well will move beyond AI features. They will become part of the operating architecture.

The next phase of supply chain AI will not be won by the tool that produces the most impressive recommendation. It will be won by the systems that help companies act faster, with more control, better context, and measurable outcomes.

The post How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

Continue Reading

Non classé

test

Published

on

By

The post test appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

Continue Reading

Trending