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January 21, 2025 Update

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January 21, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update helps you stay on top of the latest developments in international freight by giving you the rundown on the latest economic data, ocean and air demand trends, rate data – and anything else impacting the market.

Judah Levine

January 21, 2025

Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index:

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 10% to $5,321/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 3% to $6,715/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 17% to $4,694/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 7% to $5,283/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 11% to $5.26/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 9% to $3.19/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $2.16/kg.

Analysis

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Red Sea Crisis

The six-week first stage of the Israel – Hamas ceasefire began on Sunday bringing a reprieve to the fifteen months of fighting which were also the pretext for Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis released statements announcing that as long as the ceasefire holds they will not attack nearly all Red Sea traffic. The group claims it will not target vessels making Israeli port calls or partially owned by Israeli companies or individuals, but will attack vessels wholly-owned by Israeli entities or flying the Israeli flag and would also attack US or UK vessels in response to any new US/UK strikes of Houthi positions in Yemen.

Some experts are skeptical that the Houthis – who may have significant financial as well as geopolitical incentives to keep the Red Sea unsafe – will refrain from additional attacks even during the first stage of the ceasefire. Their current commitment only to attack Israeli vessels is similar to their stated scope of targets in late 2023 which quickly expanded to include virtually any passing ship.

Another challenge to optimism that the current quiet marks the beginning of the end for the Red Sea crisis is that, even assuming the Houthis stand down for the next six weeks, sustained quiet is contingent upon Hamas and Israel agreeing on terms for the second and then third stages of the ceasefire. Negotiations for the second stage are set to begin on February 5th, but President Trump already stated that he is not confident the ceasefire will hold into the, in many ways more challenging, later stages.

Ocean carriers see current developments as a promising first step towards the resumption of Red Sea traffic. But despite reports that CMA CGM is planning to increase its use of the Suez Canal, most carriers – as well as many shippers and forwarders – will not take the costly and complicated concrete steps to return to the Red Sea until they are confident that the route is and will remain safe.

When Red Sea transits do resume though, the adjustment period to the shorter route for traffic from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as some volumes to North America could last for several weeks or longer. Schedule disruptions and vessel bunching in Europe and Asia as ships start arriving early will cause some congestion and delays at these hubs, which could put upward pressure on rates in the short term.

In the longer term though, the capacity that was absorbed by Red Sea diversions and that was responsible for container rates of at least double the norm throughout 2024 will be released back into the market. This surge in capacity will put significant downward pressure on rates. Some carriers have expressed confidence that slow steaming and an increase in scrapping, idling and blanked sailings will prevent a rate collapse. But the possible supply surplus could result in loss-making prices as low as those seen in late 2023 when transpacific rates dipped to $1,200/FEU and Asia – Europe and transatlantic prices slumped to about $1,000/FEU.

For the time being ex-Asia rates are easing as the lead up to Lunar New Year has ended. As the new alliances prepare to launch, some of the rate decrease may also be due to some increased competition between carriers. Transpacific prices could rebound somewhat just after LNY on some backlog of shipments not moved before the holiday, though a backlog and price bump are less likely for Asia – Europe as shippers moved goods earlier than usual this year.

Trump Trade Memo, Tariffs and De Minimis

The other major developments for freight markets this week were linked to President Trump taking office.

Though the president stated he is not ready to announce a global tariff just yet, he said he aims to place his promised 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada by February 1st. Despite that short timeline, which some observers think is possible via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Trump’s America First Trade Policy memorandum, issued just after the inauguration, implies a longer runway before those new tariffs.

Among other things – and in addition to calling for a review of the USMCA and an assessment of fentanyl imports, both relevant to the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico – the sweeping trade memo directs the relevant federal agencies to investigate and make recommendations regarding the state of US manufacturing and the overall trade deficit; review exemptions to steel and aluminum tariffs; determine China’s degree of compliance with existing trade agreements; and assess the losses to tariffs as well as the risks linked to the ongoing surge of de minimis imports.

These requests for investigations and recommendations echo those Trump issued during his first administration, and which were the first step in the often months-long process culminating in the actual implementation of new tariffs or trade policies during Trump’s first administration. This week’s memo sets April deadlines for the requested reports and recommendations, which may make a February 1st tariff hike less likely.

Back in September the Biden administration announced plans to significantly close the de minimis exemption to Chinese goods. That directive resulted on Friday in a US Customs and Border Protection notice of proposed rulemaking that triggers a 60-day review period and which could result in those sweeping changes to Chinese imports’ eligibility for the de minimis exemption. Trump has not spoken much about the de minimis issue specifically previously, but the topic’s inclusion in the memo makes it likely that the rule change could move forward under the new administration.
The flood of de minimis parcels from China – often from e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein – since mid-2023 is the main driver of air cargo rates that, even post-peak season, remain highly elevated at more than $5.00/kg from China to North America, and more than $3.00/kg to Europe. Legislation that bans many of those packages from entering the US via the quick and inexpensive de minimis route could significantly curb air cargo volumes into the US, freeing up capacity and putting downward pressure on rates as a result.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Logistics Viewpoints Is Refocusing on Logistics

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Logistics Viewpoints is getting back to its roots.

Going forward, we are putting more emphasis on logistics and less on trying to cover the entire supply chain.

That may sound like a small distinction. It isn’t.

Supply chain has become an enormous umbrella. It can include sourcing, procurement, manufacturing, planning, inventory, logistics, sustainability, risk, technology, and almost anything that happens between a supplier and a customer.

There is plenty to write about there. But trying to cover all of it can also make it harder for a publication to have a clear point of view.

Logistics gives us that focus.

What We Mean by Logistics

For Logistics Viewpoints, the center of gravity will be the movement and storage of goods and the systems required to make that happen.

That means transportation, warehousing, distribution, fulfillment, automation, robotics, visibility, global logistics, logistics technology, and execution.

It also means we will continue writing quite a bit about AI, data, digital twins, agents, and decision intelligence. But the question will be what those technologies actually mean for logistics.

How does AI change transportation planning or execution?

What happens when warehouse systems can coordinate robots, people, inventory, and material-handling equipment in real time?

Can better visibility actually change a decision before it is too late to do anything about it?

Where can software act on its own, and where should a person remain in the loop?

Those are logistics questions.

This Doesn’t Mean Supply Chain Disappears

There is obviously no clean wall between logistics and the rest of the supply chain.

Inventory decisions affect transportation. Manufacturing decisions affect warehouses and distribution networks. Sourcing changes freight flows. Planning determines what logistics eventually has to execute.

So we aren’t going to stop using the term “supply chain,” and we aren’t going back through years of Logistics Viewpoints articles changing old terminology.

The distinction is more practical.

If a broader supply chain development has a meaningful logistics consequence, we will cover it. If it doesn’t, we don’t necessarily need to.

That gives us a fairly simple editorial test: Where is the logistics story?

The Site Will Change With the Focus

We’re also going through Logistics Viewpoints itself to make sure the site reflects that direction.

Some of the language has gradually become broader over the years. The homepage, About page, Topics pages, newsletter language, navigation, and several other areas still describe LV largely in supply chain terms.

Those will change.

For example, “Independent Intelligence for Supply Chain Leaders” becomes “Independent Intelligence for Logistics Leaders.”

The topics we emphasize will also become more clearly organized around transportation, warehousing, fulfillment, automation, visibility and orchestration, global logistics and trade, logistics technology and AI, and logistics risk and resilience.

ARC Advisory Group will, of course, continue to conduct research across the broader supply chain and industrial technology markets. This change is about giving Logistics Viewpoints a sharper editorial identity, not narrowing ARC’s research coverage.

Two New Series Help Set the Direction

We are also launching two substantial series that reflect where we want to take the publication.

The first is Systems Engineering in Logistics, a 16-part series.

One of the problems with logistics transformation is that companies can approach transportation, warehousing, automation, software, data, and AI as separate projects. But they all eventually have to work together.

The series looks at logistics as a system.

It starts with requirements and operating models and works through process and data architecture, technology selection, AI, digital twins, automation, testing, resilience, and lifecycle management.

The basic idea is simple: before optimizing another piece of logistics, make sure we understand the system we are changing.

The second series is The New Architecture of Logistics, with 10 articles looking at what that system is becoming.

We’ll examine why logistics increasingly looks like an operating system, why the traditional boundary between transportation and warehousing is weakening, the emergence of a logistics control layer, increasingly orchestrated warehouses, computational transportation, the changing economics of visibility, AI agents, decision velocity, and eventually more autonomous logistics operations.

The two series approach the subject from different directions.

Systems Engineering in Logistics is about how we design the system.

The New Architecture of Logistics is about what the system is becoming.

Back to Logistics

Logistics itself is becoming a much bigger technology story.

Warehouses are becoming more automated. Transportation systems are becoming more dynamic. Physical assets are becoming easier for software to observe. AI is moving closer to execution. Decisions that once took hours can increasingly be made in minutes or seconds.

At the same time, none of the physical realities have disappeared. Trucks still have to arrive. Trailers still have to be loaded. Inventory still has to be in the right place. Orders still have to get out the door.

That intersection between the physical world and increasingly intelligent technology is where Logistics Viewpoints has a lot to say.

So the change is not about making LV smaller.

It is about making it clearer what we are here to cover.

Logistics.

The post Logistics Viewpoints Is Refocusing on Logistics appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Most B2B Webinars Fail to Reach Executives

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Most B2B webinars do not fail because they lack registrations. They fail because they do not create enough executive relevance.

A webinar can attract a respectable audience, generate leads, and still make little impression on the senior decision-makers a technology supplier actually wants to influence. The problem is often not promotion or production quality. It is the design of the conversation.

In the latest Logistics Viewpoints Podcast, we look at why issue-first webinar design, analyst-led moderation, and market-focused discussion often outperform traditional product-centric presentations—especially in complex logistics and enterprise technology markets.

Executives Do Not Attend Webinars for Product Tours

The conventional B2B webinar usually begins with the supplier.

Here is our company. Here is our platform. Here are the capabilities. Here is a customer example.

That format can work when prospects are already evaluating a specific solution. It is much less effective when the goal is executive engagement or thought leadership.

Senior executives are usually thinking about larger operating questions: cost, service, resilience, labor, customer expectations, technology risk, capital allocation, and how their operating model needs to change.

A better webinar starts there.

The most important opening question is not:

What does our product do?

It is:

What important problem is changing in the market, and what does an executive need to understand about it?

That shift changes the entire discussion.

Start With the Issue, Not the Solution

An issue-first webinar begins with a problem that matters even if the sponsor’s product is never mentioned.

In logistics, that could be warehouse automation, transportation volatility, decision latency, AI agents, visibility economics, labor constraints, or the convergence of transportation and warehouse execution.

The discussion can then explore what is changing, why it matters, where conventional approaches fall short, and what executives should be thinking about next.

Technology still belongs in the conversation. But it enters as part of the answer rather than as the premise.

That creates a different relationship with the audience.

Instead of asking an executive to spend 45 minutes learning about a vendor, you are offering 45 minutes of useful perspective on a problem that executive already has.

Analyst-Led Moderation Raises the Value

A strong moderator should do more than introduce speakers and move through prepared questions.

The moderator should represent the audience.

That means asking the questions an informed customer would ask, challenging broad claims, drawing distinctions between approaches, and pushing the discussion away from features and toward operating consequences.

An analyst can also provide market context.

If a supplier says customers are increasingly asking for a capability, the moderator can explore why. What changed? Is this isolated or part of a broader shift? What business problem is driving demand? What barriers remain?

The supplier still gets to demonstrate expertise. In many cases, it demonstrates more expertise than it would in a conventional presentation because the value comes through the quality of the thinking.

Credibility Is Part of Webinar ROI

Enterprise technology purchases are rarely driven by a single interaction.

Decision-makers form impressions over time.

Does this company understand my industry? Does it understand the problem beyond its own product? Are its executives credible? Does the company have something useful to say when it is not directly selling?

A strong webinar can influence those perceptions.

That means webinar ROI should not be measured only by registrations, attendance, marketing-qualified leads, or immediate meetings.

Those metrics matter. But executive webinars can also build market credibility.

In long, complex enterprise sales cycles, that credibility can be strategically important even when it is difficult to capture in a lead-generation dashboard.

Do Not Make One Webinar Do Everything

Another common mistake is trying to make a single webinar generate leads, demonstrate the product, educate the market, create thought leadership, produce sales meetings, and satisfy every stakeholder at once.

Those goals can conflict.

A webinar optimized aggressively for immediate lead conversion can become too promotional to attract or retain the senior audience that makes the program valuable.

A better objective is simpler:

Create a conversation worth an executive’s time.

Demand generation can follow.

Build a Content Asset, Not a One-Time Event

A substantive webinar can also become much more than the live event.

A strong discussion can support a podcast episode, article, video clips, social posts, newsletter content, sales enablement material, and follow-up conversations.

That improves the economics of the program.

But repurposing only works when the original discussion contains genuine ideas. There is little value in repackaging the same sales presentation six different ways.

From Webinar Marketing to Market Influence

The best B2B webinars do not begin by asking how quickly they can get to the product.

They begin by identifying an important market issue, framing it around the decisions executives are facing, and creating a discussion that offers useful perspective.

For companies selling complex logistics and enterprise technology, that is where webinars can become more than another demand-generation tactic.

They can build credibility, shape market perception, and establish the company as part of the conversation about where logistics is going.

That is a much higher bar than generating registrations.

It is also a much more valuable one.

Watch the latest Logistics Viewpoints Podcast episode above to explore the full discussion on issue-first webinar design, executive engagement, analyst-led moderation, and improving B2B webinar ROI.

The post Why Most B2B Webinars Fail to Reach Executives appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Logistics Is Becoming Reconfigurable

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Logistics optimization has traditionally been built around a relatively stable operating network. Transportation managers optimize modes and routes, warehouse operators optimize labor and throughput, and distribution teams position inventory against expected demand. Conditions change, but the underlying logistics architecture has generally been stable enough to optimize around it.

That assumption is becoming harder to defend. Trade disruptions can redirect freight flows, infrastructure constraints can change viable transportation routes, warehouse demand can shift within hours, and automation is becoming capable of adapting to operating conditions in real time. The emerging logistics challenge is therefore not simply optimization. It is reconfigurability: the ability to change how goods move, where they flow, and how logistics resources are deployed while conditions are changing.

When Transportation Routes Change, the Rest of the Network Has to Follow

Recent uncertainty surrounding global shipping routes illustrates the problem. The Port of Los Angeles has been preparing for the possibility of additional cargo moving through the U.S. West Coast as shippers respond to continued Red Sea uncertainty and potential restrictions at the Panama Canal.

The port has discussed a planning scenario involving roughly 5 percent year-over-year cargo growth, while emphasizing that this is a preparedness assumption rather than a guaranteed forecast. More important than the number is the operational preparation behind it. The port has been coordinating with terminal operators, ocean carriers, trucking companies, and labor organizations to determine whether additional freight could be absorbed if global routing patterns shift.

This exposes an important weakness in the way logistics resilience is sometimes discussed. An alternate route on a network diagram is not necessarily a usable alternate route.

A port needs terminal capacity. Containers arriving at the port need chassis and drayage capacity. Inland freight requires available rail or truck capacity. Distribution centers need doors, labor, yard space, and storage capacity. Inventory arriving through a different gateway may also change lead times and downstream replenishment schedules.

The logistics network therefore cannot simply reroute the shipment. It has to understand and manage the consequences of the rerouting across the rest of the network.

That is logistics reconfigurability.

Warehouses Need to Reconfigure During the Shift

The same principle increasingly applies inside distribution centers. Warehouse operations have traditionally been planned around expected order volumes, available labor, established workflows, and known automation capacity. The problem is that those assumptions rarely remain constant throughout the operating day.

Orders arrive differently than expected. Labor availability changes. Automation throughput varies. Inbound trailers arrive early or late. Transportation schedules change. A labor plan that looked optimal at 8:00 a.m. may be badly mismatched with the operation by noon.

Warehouse technology has historically been good at measuring these differences. Labor management systems track productivity, WMS applications monitor work, and automation systems report equipment performance. The emerging opportunity is to use that information to change operations while there is still time to affect the outcome.

Warehouse labor-management and intelligence company Takt recently announced a $9.25 million Series A and says its platform supports more than 100 warehouses. Kenco has deployed the technology across 19 distribution centers, with additional expansion planned.

The performance figures associated with those deployments are company- and customer-reported, but the architectural direction is more significant. Takt says it is developing AI agents capable of rebalancing labor against live order conditions within supervisor-defined limits.

That changes the role of logistics intelligence. Instead of simply telling an operator what happened during yesterday’s shift, the system can increasingly help determine what should change during today’s shift.

The relevant metric becomes decision-to-action latency: the amount of time between detecting an operational change, determining the appropriate response, and actually changing the logistics operation.

Automation Is Becoming More Flexible

Warehouse robotics are moving in the same direction. Robot.com and Sodexo have signed a seven-year commercial agreement expanding autonomous delivery across North American campuses. The length of the agreement is notable because it suggests autonomous delivery is moving beyond short-term pilots toward longer-term logistics infrastructure.

Pudu Robotics has also introduced the MP2000 autonomous pallet-handling robot, which the company says can operate with less fixed infrastructure than earlier generations of automated forklifts. Those performance claims still need to be proven across diverse production environments, but the direction is important.

Traditional automation often required the warehouse to adapt to the automation. Facilities needed fixed infrastructure, tightly controlled workflows, dedicated operating areas, or substantial implementation work. More flexible autonomous systems potentially reverse that relationship by allowing automation to adapt more readily to the facility and changing workflows.

That matters because a highly automated warehouse is not necessarily a flexible warehouse. If changing the operation requires months of engineering and integration work, automation can actually create another form of rigidity.

The more important logistics capability is adaptable automation: technology that can be redeployed, re-tasked, or reorchestrated as volumes, products, labor requirements, and service expectations change.

Inventory Positioning Is Becoming More Dynamic

Reconfigurability also changes the role of inventory. Traditional logistics network design asks where inventory should be positioned to balance transportation costs, inventory carrying costs, and customer-service requirements. Increasingly, the answer may need to change more frequently.

A transportation disruption can make one distribution center less attractive. A demand spike can make inventory in another facility more valuable. A capacity constraint at one warehouse can shift fulfillment toward another node. Changes in delivery requirements can alter which inventory location provides the best combination of cost and service.

This creates a more dynamic fulfillment problem. The logistics system increasingly needs to determine not simply where inventory should reside in the network, but which available inventory should serve each order given current transportation capacity, warehouse conditions, service requirements, and cost.

That is where inventory visibility, transportation management, warehouse management, order management, and decision intelligence begin to converge.

From Logistics Optimization to Continuous Reoptimization

Traditional logistics optimization is essentially a constrained problem: define the orders, inventory, transportation capacity, warehouse capacity, service requirements, and costs, and determine the best way to move the freight.

The emerging problem is more difficult because the constraints themselves keep changing. A transportation lane becomes unavailable. A port becomes congested. A carrier loses capacity. Warehouse labor falls below plan. Orders shift geographically. Automation throughput changes.

The system therefore needs to find another answer and determine whether that answer can actually be executed.

That makes continuous reoptimization coupled with execution an increasingly important logistics capability. A mathematically optimal transportation plan has limited value if operations cannot implement it before conditions change again.

In many situations, the second-best logistics plan that can be executed immediately may be considerably more valuable than the theoretically optimal plan that takes days or weeks to implement.

Logistics Optionality Has Economic Value

This also changes how logistics organizations should think about redundancy. Alternate carriers, ports, warehouses, transportation modes, fulfillment nodes, labor pools, and automation capacity all cost money. Traditional efficiency programs can therefore make redundancy appear wasteful.

But those resources also create options.

An alternate carrier has value when the primary carrier lacks capacity. A second port has value when the preferred gateway becomes congested. Flexible warehouse labor has value when order volume changes. Adaptable automation has value when workflows shift.

The challenge is determining how much optionality is economically justified.

Future logistics optimization will therefore need to answer a more sophisticated question than, “What is the lowest-cost way to move this freight?”

It will increasingly need to determine: What is the lowest-cost logistics network that provides enough operational flexibility to maintain service when conditions change?

The Logistics KPI to Watch: Time to Reconfigure

Logistics organizations already measure transportation cost, warehouse productivity, inventory turns, on-time delivery, order cycle time, capacity utilization, and service performance. Another family of metrics is likely to become increasingly important: how quickly the operation can change.

How quickly can freight move to another carrier or mode? How long does it take to redirect volume through another port? How quickly can fulfillment shift between distribution centers? How rapidly can warehouse labor be rebalanced? How long does it take to redeploy automation or change a warehouse operating plan?

These measurements reveal something traditional efficiency metrics do not: the logistics network’s ability to respond while the disruption is still unfolding.

That may become particularly important as AI enters logistics execution. The value of AI will not ultimately be measured by how many recommendations a system generates. It will be measured by whether those recommendations can safely and economically change transportation, warehousing, fulfillment, inventory, and labor decisions in time to improve the outcome.

The Bottom Line

For decades, logistics excellence largely meant executing a well-designed plan as efficiently as possible. The emerging environment requires something more.

Transportation routes change. Capacity moves. Warehouse conditions change throughout the day. Inventory needs to be repositioned. Automation is becoming more adaptable, while decision systems are becoming capable of responding faster to operational changes.

The strongest logistics operations will therefore not simply execute the original plan better. They will recognize when the original plan is no longer the best one and reconfigure transportation, warehousing, inventory, labor, and automation faster than competitors.

The future of logistics is not simply optimized. It is reconfigurable.

The post Logistics Is Becoming Reconfigurable appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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