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January 21, 2025 Update

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January 21, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update helps you stay on top of the latest developments in international freight by giving you the rundown on the latest economic data, ocean and air demand trends, rate data – and anything else impacting the market.

Judah Levine

January 21, 2025

Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index:

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 10% to $5,321/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 3% to $6,715/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 17% to $4,694/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 7% to $5,283/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 11% to $5.26/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 9% to $3.19/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2% to $2.16/kg.

Analysis

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Red Sea Crisis

The six-week first stage of the Israel – Hamas ceasefire began on Sunday bringing a reprieve to the fifteen months of fighting which were also the pretext for Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis released statements announcing that as long as the ceasefire holds they will not attack nearly all Red Sea traffic. The group claims it will not target vessels making Israeli port calls or partially owned by Israeli companies or individuals, but will attack vessels wholly-owned by Israeli entities or flying the Israeli flag and would also attack US or UK vessels in response to any new US/UK strikes of Houthi positions in Yemen.

Some experts are skeptical that the Houthis – who may have significant financial as well as geopolitical incentives to keep the Red Sea unsafe – will refrain from additional attacks even during the first stage of the ceasefire. Their current commitment only to attack Israeli vessels is similar to their stated scope of targets in late 2023 which quickly expanded to include virtually any passing ship.

Another challenge to optimism that the current quiet marks the beginning of the end for the Red Sea crisis is that, even assuming the Houthis stand down for the next six weeks, sustained quiet is contingent upon Hamas and Israel agreeing on terms for the second and then third stages of the ceasefire. Negotiations for the second stage are set to begin on February 5th, but President Trump already stated that he is not confident the ceasefire will hold into the, in many ways more challenging, later stages.

Ocean carriers see current developments as a promising first step towards the resumption of Red Sea traffic. But despite reports that CMA CGM is planning to increase its use of the Suez Canal, most carriers – as well as many shippers and forwarders – will not take the costly and complicated concrete steps to return to the Red Sea until they are confident that the route is and will remain safe.

When Red Sea transits do resume though, the adjustment period to the shorter route for traffic from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as some volumes to North America could last for several weeks or longer. Schedule disruptions and vessel bunching in Europe and Asia as ships start arriving early will cause some congestion and delays at these hubs, which could put upward pressure on rates in the short term.

In the longer term though, the capacity that was absorbed by Red Sea diversions and that was responsible for container rates of at least double the norm throughout 2024 will be released back into the market. This surge in capacity will put significant downward pressure on rates. Some carriers have expressed confidence that slow steaming and an increase in scrapping, idling and blanked sailings will prevent a rate collapse. But the possible supply surplus could result in loss-making prices as low as those seen in late 2023 when transpacific rates dipped to $1,200/FEU and Asia – Europe and transatlantic prices slumped to about $1,000/FEU.

For the time being ex-Asia rates are easing as the lead up to Lunar New Year has ended. As the new alliances prepare to launch, some of the rate decrease may also be due to some increased competition between carriers. Transpacific prices could rebound somewhat just after LNY on some backlog of shipments not moved before the holiday, though a backlog and price bump are less likely for Asia – Europe as shippers moved goods earlier than usual this year.

Trump Trade Memo, Tariffs and De Minimis

The other major developments for freight markets this week were linked to President Trump taking office.

Though the president stated he is not ready to announce a global tariff just yet, he said he aims to place his promised 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada by February 1st. Despite that short timeline, which some observers think is possible via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Trump’s America First Trade Policy memorandum, issued just after the inauguration, implies a longer runway before those new tariffs.

Among other things – and in addition to calling for a review of the USMCA and an assessment of fentanyl imports, both relevant to the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico – the sweeping trade memo directs the relevant federal agencies to investigate and make recommendations regarding the state of US manufacturing and the overall trade deficit; review exemptions to steel and aluminum tariffs; determine China’s degree of compliance with existing trade agreements; and assess the losses to tariffs as well as the risks linked to the ongoing surge of de minimis imports.

These requests for investigations and recommendations echo those Trump issued during his first administration, and which were the first step in the often months-long process culminating in the actual implementation of new tariffs or trade policies during Trump’s first administration. This week’s memo sets April deadlines for the requested reports and recommendations, which may make a February 1st tariff hike less likely.

Back in September the Biden administration announced plans to significantly close the de minimis exemption to Chinese goods. That directive resulted on Friday in a US Customs and Border Protection notice of proposed rulemaking that triggers a 60-day review period and which could result in those sweeping changes to Chinese imports’ eligibility for the de minimis exemption. Trump has not spoken much about the de minimis issue specifically previously, but the topic’s inclusion in the memo makes it likely that the rule change could move forward under the new administration.
The flood of de minimis parcels from China – often from e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein – since mid-2023 is the main driver of air cargo rates that, even post-peak season, remain highly elevated at more than $5.00/kg from China to North America, and more than $3.00/kg to Europe. Legislation that bans many of those packages from entering the US via the quick and inexpensive de minimis route could significantly curb air cargo volumes into the US, freeing up capacity and putting downward pressure on rates as a result.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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When Every Function Has an AI Agent, Who Optimizes the Company?

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The first wave of enterprise AI has been organized largely around functions. Sales gets an assistant, procurement gets an agent, transportation gets an optimization layer, warehouse operations get orchestration, and finance gets its own analytical tools. That is a sensible way to adopt technology, but it creates a problem that supply chain leaders should recognize immediately: if every function gets better at optimizing its own objective, who optimizes the company?

This question follows directly from the coordination premium. Better intelligence increases the value of coordination because a supply chain is not one optimization problem; it is a collection of interdependent decisions made under competing objectives. AI can make each decision faster and more sophisticated, but it can also intensify conflicts that organizations have managed imperfectly for decades.

Local Optimization Has Always Been Expensive

A procurement organization may be rewarded for purchase-price variance, transportation for freight cost, inventory for working capital, manufacturing for utilization, and customer service for fill rate. Each KPI has a rational purpose, but no supply chain can maximize all of them simultaneously. When functions optimize without a shared view of the enterprise outcome, the company pays through excess inventory, premium freight, unstable schedules, or service failures.

This is one reason I have questioned whether traditional supply chain KPIs are keeping up with the job. Functional measures are useful, but they can reinforce the same silos that modern technology is supposed to eliminate. The same shift is visible in transportation, where TMS is becoming less of a routing tool and more of a decision-intelligence layer, forcing transportation decisions into a broader business context. AI agents operating against those measures could turn an old management problem into a high-speed software problem.

Agents Need Context Beyond Their Function

An agent that sees only transportation data may reasonably recommend the lowest-cost carrier. An agent with customer, inventory, production, and margin context may make a different choice because the shipment is tied to a production constraint or a strategic account. This is why context is becoming a critical requirement for supply chain AI: intelligence without business context can optimize the wrong thing very efficiently.

The problem grows when several agents interact. As discussed in Agentic AI in Supply Chain, coordinated execution will require agents to exchange information and hand work across boundaries. Communication, however, is not the same as goal alignment, and an architecture that allows agents to talk to one another still needs a way to resolve conflicts among objectives.

The Enterprise Objective Must Be Explicit

Human managers often resolve tradeoffs through experience. They know that a particular customer cannot miss a promotion, that a plant shutdown is more expensive than an expedite, or that inventory should be protected because another supplier is already unstable. Those judgments need to become more explicit when machines participate in the decision, which means organizations will have to encode priorities that were previously embedded in management behavior.

This is where the evolution from functional applications toward decision architectures becomes important. The architecture has to understand not simply what each application is designed to optimize, but how multiple objectives relate to an enterprise outcome. That may include margin, service, risk, cash, capacity, and strategic customer commitments at the same time.

Optimization Needs a Hierarchy

One practical implication is that companies may need a hierarchy of objectives rather than a flat collection of agent goals. Routine transportation decisions can optimize freight cost until a service-risk threshold is crossed; inventory can be minimized until resilience thresholds are threatened; production can maximize utilization until customer or working-capital penalties outweigh the benefit. In other words, autonomous optimization will need constraints that reflect the economics of the whole business.

This also suggests why compressing supply chain decision cycles is not enough by itself. A bad decision made in thirty seconds is not an improvement over a good decision made in thirty minutes, and a series of individually rational decisions can still produce a poor system outcome. Speed matters only when the decision logic is aligned with the right objective.

Management Becomes the Design of Tradeoffs

As agents become more capable, the managerial task may shift from supervising every transaction toward designing the tradeoffs the machines are allowed to make. Leaders will have to decide which outcomes take precedence, what risk limits apply, which decisions need escalation, and where local optimization must yield to enterprise priorities. Those are management questions expressed through software.

The implication is that the agentic supply chain cannot be designed by IT alone. Operations, finance, procurement, customer service, technology, and executive leadership all have to participate because the system is effectively encoding how the company values competing outcomes. That is a deeper transformation than adding an AI feature to an application.

Who Optimizes the Company?

The answer cannot be “the most powerful agent.” It has to be an operating model in which functional intelligence is coordinated through shared context, enterprise objectives, and explicit decision rules. Companies that solve that problem will get more value from every specialized agent they deploy because the agents will contribute to a coherent system rather than a faster collection of silos.

This is the next step after recognizing the coordination premium. Once an organization accepts that intelligence must be coordinated, it needs an architecture capable of translating coordinated decisions into action, and that is where the next article in this sequence begins: the need for an execution architecture rather than another intelligence layer.

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The Coordination Premium: Why AI Makes Organizational Design More Important

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Artificial intelligence is usually presented as a technology story. Better models arrive, inference costs decline, applications acquire new capabilities, and companies search for places where AI can automate work. But the more I look at what is happening across supply chain software, warehouse automation, planning, visibility, and enterprise architecture, the more I think the important second-order effect is organizational: as intelligence becomes easier to acquire, coordination becomes harder to differentiate and more valuable to master.

I have argued previously that the marginal cost of intelligence is collapsing and, in As AI Becomes More Affordable, Supply Chain Software Differentiation Moves Up the Stack, that broadly available models push differentiation toward proprietary context, workflows, integration, and domain knowledge. That logic has another step. If every function can access better analytical capability, the scarce capability becomes the ability to coordinate those capabilities around an enterprise objective rather than allowing each function, system, or agent to optimize its own piece of the problem.

Cheap Intelligence Changes What Is Scarce

Supply chains have always rationed attention. Transportation planners cannot investigate every late shipment, procurement teams cannot continuously reassess every supplier, and warehouse managers cannot manually optimize every task sequence. AI changes that constraint because a machine can examine far more situations at a much lower marginal cost, but that does not eliminate the need to decide which objective matters when several good answers conflict.

Consider a late inbound component. One system may identify the delay, another may recommend an expedite, a planning engine may propose reallocating inventory from another facility, and a customer-service application may flag the order as strategically important. Each recommendation can be correct in isolation while the collective response is wrong, because somebody still has to decide whether preserving production, protecting service, reducing freight expense, or conserving inventory deserves priority.

More Agents Can Mean More Organizational Complexity

This is why the emergence of coordinated agentic execution deserves to be treated as an organizational issue as well as a software issue. A procurement agent may optimize purchase cost, a transportation agent may minimize freight spend, an inventory agent may reduce working capital, and a service agent may protect fill rate. Those goals frequently collide, which means AI can automate local optimization faster than the enterprise can resolve the tradeoffs unless the objectives are designed coherently.

Companies already know this problem in human form. Procurement can win a price concession that increases inventory, manufacturing can improve utilization by increasing batch sizes, and transportation can lower unit freight cost at the expense of lead time. AI does not make those tensions disappear; it can make them operate at machine speed. That is one reason AI alone will not fix fragmented supply chains: fragmentation of objectives can be just as damaging as fragmentation of data.

The Warehouse Shows the Pattern Early

Warehouses provide a useful preview because physical automation has already created environments where many specialized resources must act in concert. As I wrote in Why Warehouse Orchestration Is Becoming More Important Than Warehouse Automation, a facility can contain excellent robots, conveyors, labor, picking systems, and software and still underperform when those resources are not synchronized. The unit of optimization has to shift from the individual asset to the system.

The same principle is moving upward into the enterprise. Planning, execution, and visibility are increasingly interacting as a continuous loop, which is why AI is collapsing the gap between planning and execution. When decisions become more continuous, organizational boundaries that were tolerable in periodic planning cycles become much more visible sources of friction.

Organizational Design Is Moving into Software

Traditional organizations distribute authority through roles, approval limits, policies, and experience. A transportation manager may approve one level of expedite, a vice president another, and an experienced planner may know when a customer commitment should override a cost target. Agentic systems force companies to express more of those rules explicitly because a machine cannot rely on hallway knowledge or organizational intuition unless it has been translated into context, constraints, and decision rights.

This makes AI architecture inseparable from organizational design. The question is no longer simply whether an agent can determine that an action should be taken, but whether it knows the enterprise objective, understands competing constraints, and possesses the authority to act. The more capable the technology becomes, the more important those management choices become.

The Coordination Premium

Two competitors may eventually have access to comparable models, planning systems, transportation applications, warehouse technologies, and automation. One may nevertheless outperform because its data is accessible, its objectives are aligned, its decision rights are clear, and its people and machines can coordinate around the same outcome. The other may own similar technology but retain fragmented incentives, slow approvals, and conflicting local optimizations.

That difference is what I mean by the coordination premium. As intelligence becomes more abundant, the ability to coordinate intelligence becomes relatively scarce, and supply chain leaders should begin asking not only where AI can be deployed but how humans, agents, applications, and physical systems should work together to accomplish an enterprise objective. The answer will increasingly determine whether AI produces isolated productivity gains or changes the performance of the supply chain as a whole.

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Sustainable Transportation Management Drives Performance

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Sustainable Transportation Management Drives Performance

Supply chain leaders face a growing mandate to improve operational performance while navigating rising transportation costs, supply chain disruption, customer expectations, and increasing sustainability scrutiny. Sustainable transportation management is emerging as a critical strategy for balancing these competing priorities. The challenge is that most companies still manage emissions as a reporting exercise after shipments have occurred rather than as a decision variable within daily transportation planning and execution activities.

Thankfully, modern transportation management technologies now provide the data, analytics, optimization, and AI capabilities needed to incorporate emissions, freight costs, service requirements, and network constraints into a single decision framework. The result is better business decisions that simultaneously improve financial, operational, and environmental outcomes.

Sustainable Transportation Management as an Operational Performance Lever

The emergence of cloud-based transportation management platforms, advanced analytics, and AI enables transportation systems to calculate emissions alongside cost, transit time, service commitments, and network constraints during planning and execution. Transportation planners can compare multiple shipment scenarios before execution. Logistics teams can evaluate route, mode, carrier, and consolidation options while understanding the operational and environmental impacts of each decision.

When sustainability is embedded directly into transportation operations, improvements in environmental performance eliminate inefficiencies that already drive cost and service challenges such as empty miles, underutilized equipment, fragmented shipments, inefficient routing, and poor network visibility.

Consider this example: a leading life science manufacturer leveraged its transportation management tools to eliminate over 1.4 million unnecessary truck miles by improving route planning and load utilization. These changes both improved asset utilization and significantly reduced Scope 3 emissions in their logistics network. This example illustrates how transportation optimization can directly support their sustainability goal to reduce emissions.

Better Decisions Drive Better Sustainability Outcomes

The most successful transportation companies recognize that sustainability outcomes are often a byproduct of better operational decisions. A modern transportation management system (TMS) with embedded sustainability data provides visibility into the environmental impact of the decisions.

Let us examine the case of a transportation planner in the fashion industry who seeks to strategically balance the need for seasonal product availability with transportation costs and emissions. Facing tight launch deadlines, the planner using a modern TMS with embedded sustainability data evaluates scenarios across air, ocean, and expedited ground transportation. The planner identifies which products truly require air freight, and which can be shipped through lower-cost, lower-emission alternatives. The result is on-time delivery for seasonal collections, reduced transportation cost, lower carbon emissions, and improved profitability, demonstrating how better decisions drive better business and sustainability outcomes.

This example highlights the industry shift from sustainability reporting to operationalizing sustainability as a decision factor in transportation management systems. By turning sustainability data into actionable decision support, planners can continuously optimize performance and deliver stronger environmental outcomes without compromising customer commitments.

AI and Analytics Are Driving Sustainable Transportation Optimization

As we know, transportation networks generate enormous amounts of information across carriers, routes, modes, assets, and shipments. This data has been difficult to translate into actionable insights. Modern transportation management systems use AI and advanced data analytics to evaluate multiple variables simultaneously, including transportation cost, transit time, carrier performance, equipment utilization, service requirements, and emissions impact. This enables faster and more accurate forecasting, scenario planning, carrier management, and network optimization. It gives planners the ability to understand tradeoffs, measure progress, and make decisions with greater confidence.

Consider a transportation planner reviewing shipment options for a customer’s delivery. In the past, the planner might compare alternatives based primarily on cost and service. Emissions would be calculated weeks later for reporting purposes. Today’s transportation management system will analyze those factors together.

Better planning insights can also help mitigate carbon-related transportation costs. For example, a retailer planning ocean shipments into Europe can use a TMS to evaluate carrier services and routes against estimated EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) surcharges before booking. Because the EU ETS covers 100% of emissions from voyages between EU ports and 50% of emissions from voyages that begin or end outside the EU, the system can model the carbon-cost exposure of each option.

The Competitive Advantage of Integrated Sustainability Intelligence

Supply chains operate in an increasingly complex environment shaped by disruption, geopolitical uncertainty, cost volatility, and evolving customer expectations. Companies need visibility and intelligence to determine what to do next. Companies that simultaneously manage cost, service, resilience, and emissions are better positioned to adapt to market disruptions, support customer requirements, and drive continuous improvement across their transportation networks.

Transportation providers that embed sustainability intelligence directly into transportation planning gain a competitive edge by making smarter decisions faster. With visibility to cost, services, risk, and emissions in a single platform, they can proactively optimize routes, carrier selection, and mode choices while adapting to disruptions and evolving customer requirements. The result is more agile, resilient, and efficient transportation networks that deliver both business performance and sustainability outcomes, helping providers differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market.

Looking Ahead

Transportation leaders increasingly recognize that sustainability and business performance are not competing priorities. The same technologies that improve efficiency, lower costs, strengthen resilience, and support growth can also reduce emissions.

The companies that move beyond reporting and operationalize sustainability within transportation planning and execution will be better positioned to create value for their customers, stakeholders, and the business itself. Ultimately, sustainability becomes the outcome of running a smarter transportation network.

Laurie Wallace

Laurie Wallace is a supply chain and technology transformation leader with more than 20 years of experience helping organizations improve operational performance through innovation. Her career has focused on enabling business growth through emerging technologies including AI, analytics, digital platforms, mobile solutions, and enterprise software. Drawing on her leadership experience across global technology companies including Blue Yonder, Thomson Reuters, Epsilon, and Nokia, Laurie writes about the intersection of technology, supply chain operations, sustainability, and business performance. She currently leads Sustainable Supply Chain Management and Professional Services Product Marketing at Blue Yonder.

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