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Top Supply Chain Risks to Prepare for in 2025

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Top Supply Chain Risks To Prepare For In 2025

This is the time of year when analysts get bombarded with pitches from PR firms. The pitches share a “sneak peek” of the predictions that a CEO at a solutions company is making and then asks the journalist if they want to interview the CEO. These predictions mostly seem obvious.

I got a pitch from the PR firm representing Everstream Analytics that was different. Everstream Analytics is sitting on a vast trove of risk data. The company applies AI and other analytics to this data to provide supply chain risk analytics and insights to its clients. In short, what makes them different is that they can quantify and thus prioritize supply chain risks.

Their 2025 outlook identifies the five most likely supply chain events that will impact supply chain operations this year. Each event is assigned a risk score.

Drowning in Climate Change

This is the top risk identified by Everstream. They apply a risk score of 90% here. “Flooding has become so volatile that even nations with the most sophisticated weather warning systems and infrastructure are caught off guard by the ferocity and speed of sudden flash flood events. Companies will be upended by even more frequent small-scale events and larger-scale storms like Hurricane Helene’s unexpected and extensive destruction across several states in the U.S. Appalachia region in 2024.”

The company points out that forecasted rainfall totals for Helene were very accurate one week in advance of the flood that devasted the Blue Ridge mountain region of North Carolina. “But nobody in that region had ever experienced or even expected that amount of rainfall in such a brief period. The existing infrastructure (bridges, roads, rails) was built in the past and was insufficient to handle these copious rainfall totals. The damage impacted more than 50 electronics, automotive, and aerospace manufacturers, plus general machinery and materials processors, and medical device and health care companies.”

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events around the world. In 2024, flooding events contributed to 70% of the weather disruptions covered by Everstream Analytics.

So, what can companies do about this risk? They recommend looking at key company-owned facilities and those run by key partners and suppliers. The “evaluation should include a review of area infrastructure, egress routes, and waterways. Pay attention to applied meteorology forecasts as far in advance as possible and take flood warnings particularly seriously. Prepare for the worst and react aggressively.”

Geopolitical Instability with Increased Tariff Risk

Everstream applies a score of 80% to this risk. “International political and economic relations are destabilizing, caused by political upheaval, ongoing skirmishes, and full-scale wars. In 2025, it will be impossible to avoid conflict and its impact on sourcing, manufacturing, and logistics.”

The report cites intensified political turmoil in the Middle East, including the Israeli-Hamas war and its spillover, the Syrian civil war, and continuous Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels. “Even if the traffic along the Suez Canal route returns to full throttle in 2025, this shift would cause weeklong processing delays, container backlogs, and a spike in congestion at many European seaports due to the sudden increase in cargo volume.”

In Ukraine, Russian forces now occupy around 20% of the country. Additional support from Western allies looks less likely. It is likely Russia will be able to destabilize Ukraine’s remaining manufacturing and trade activities and that further strain between Europe and Russia will result.

In Asia-Pacific, China believes Taiwan rightfully belongs to them. This has led to the souring of cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan as Taiwan exhibits more political independence. “A full-scale invasion seems unlikely.” This may be overly optimistic. However, the report summarizes the military drills around Taiwan in recent years and comments that “more or bigger Chinese military exercises could disrupt transportation through significant seaports and airports in the region. Nearly a third of all global trade – and 40% of all globally traded petroleum products – flows through sea lanes in the region.

Meanwhile, tariff increases always affect global trade flows. President Trump has proposed tariff increases, including a global baseline tariff of 10–20%, a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, and a 100% tariff on goods from de-dollarizing countries. De-dollarization is an effort by several countries to reduce the role of the U.S. dollar in international trade. Countries like Russia, India, China, among others, are seeking to set up trade channels using currencies other than the dollar.

Everstream’s report did not mention Mexican or Canadian tariffs. An increase in the flows between China and Mexico of assembled products, and materials and components produced in China has occurred. This has been described as a “back door” into the U.S. to avoid Trump and Biden administration tariffs. Trump’s negotiations with Mexico to close the back door could heighten the impact of new tariffs on China.

The automotive, semiconductor, and manufacturing industries are at risk due to potential tariffs on solar wafers, polysilicon, steel/aluminum imports, and the closure of the back door to Mexico. Additionally, tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to retaliatory measures, affecting U.S. companies operating in China. This would primarily affect U.S. agricultural exports and finished goods.

The key strategy, according to Everstream, is to understand the multi-tier supply sources by country so that a company can make sourcing adjustments when an event occurs. If a company can do this more quickly than its competitors, that leads to a competitive advantage.

More Back Doors for Cybercrime

Everstream assigns this risk a score of 75%. “While a company’s cybersecurity front doors may be double-bolted, but there are more unlocked back doors than ever available to increasingly sophisticated attackers. In 2025, cyberattacks will primarily arrive via sub-tier supply chains, where criminals can more easily exploit common programming errors and vulnerabilities. They can then leapfrog into top-tier corporations via phishing, software connection links, or other methods.”

Cencora, a sub-tier pharmaceutical supplier, had a security breach in the early spring of 2024. At least 11 global pharmaceutical companies linked this breach to their later ransomware and phishing attacks. Everstream’s data document 471 attacks in 2024. The data shows that cyberattacks were particularly common in the electronics, logistics, and consumer goods industries.

Larry O’Brien, a vice president at ARC Advisory Group, says that an European Union regulation known as Network and Information Systems Directive 2 provides a good framework for companies to follow to bolster their supply chain cybersecurity capabilities. While NIS 2 is an EU regulatory framework, NIS 2 applies to companies headquartered outside the EU if they provide services within the EU. “Adopting a risk management framework for cybersecurity is something that all manufacturers should be doing,” Mr. O’Brien points out. “As with any regulatory framework, NIS 2 tells you what needs to be done, not always how to do it.”

Rare Metals and Minerals on Lockdown

The score assigned to this class of risks is 65%. “Countries and companies alike are recognizing global mineral scarcity coupled with increasing demand, and both are responding by locking up supplies.” Between rising regulations, new tariffs, and long-term or exclusive contracts, rare minerals and metals will be harder and more expensive to obtain.

“Within a politically charged atmosphere between the West and the major commodity producers—China and Russia—companies will face new tariffs and sanctions on critical metals. Governments are placing renewed emphasis on the negative environmental and social impacts of mining, which will present challenges for metal producers over the coming year.”

But, China is not the only nation with proposed or enacted commodity restrictions. “Political tensions over the Russia-Ukraine war led to restrictions on Russian metal imports by the U.S. and the UK. Additionally, security concerns and allegations of industry product dumping led many countries to enact measures against Chinese metal imports.”

As concerns mount surrounding critical commodities, companies are increasingly turning to direct mineral purchasing agreements with mines. However, when a nation supplies an overwhelming majority of a mineral based on mining or processing, direct agreements with mines may have limited value. Graphite, for example, is a core raw material for producing Lithium batteries which are core to the electronic vehicle market. 80% of the world’s graphite is produced in China.

Crackdown on Forced Labor

No nation’s enforcement of any ESG issue comes close to the US Customs and Border Protection Agency’s enforcement of the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act. $3.7 billion in shipments have been detained at the border based on enforcement of this act. In some cases, the shipments are eventually cleared, but only after supply chains were disrupted and demurrage charges accrued. But a significant proportion of shipments were never allowed entry into the US.

What gives the US act teeth is that “the ‘rebuttable presumption’ part of UFLPA is truly unique. Anything coming out of Xinjiang is presumed to have used forced labor unless an importer can prove the negative. There is also a lack of a de minimis exception; this means that even an insignificant input of product produced in whole or in part with forced labor could result in enforcement action.

While the UFLPA is the most stringent, other nations and regions have also enacted legislation. These include the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D) and regulation on Prohibiting Products made with Forced Labor (FLR); Mexico’s Forced Labor Regulation; and Canada’s Fighting Against Forced and Child Labour in Supply Chains Act.

While legislation has pushed many companies to find alternative suppliers in other low-income countries, many emerging economies do not have adequate laws or enforcement mechanisms. This is particularly true when sub-tier suppliers employ migrant labor.

The technology exists to detect whether a company’s supply chain includes sub-tier suppliers based in the Uighur region of China. This technology is not flawless, there can be false positives and misses. Nevertheless, it is a powerful tool to prevent shipments from being detained based on UFLPA.

However, finding bad actors among sub-tier suppliers in other parts of the world is still difficult. Everstream points out that the food industry is a particular source of concern. Vanilla, palm oil, cocoa, and soy – produced in Madagascar, Indonesia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria – have frequently accrued violations and allegations based on child labor or forced labor issues.

The post Top Supply Chain Risks to Prepare for in 2025 appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Walmart AI Pricing Patents Signal Shift Toward Real-Time Retail Execution

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Walmart Ai Pricing Patents Signal Shift Toward Real Time Retail Execution

Walmart’s new patents and digital shelf rollout point to a more tightly integrated model linking demand forecasting, pricing, and store-level execution.

Walmart has secured two patents related to automated pricing and demand forecasting, drawing attention to how large retailers are evolving their pricing and execution capabilities.

One patent, System and Method for Dynamically Updating Prices on an E-Commerce Platform, covers a system that can dynamically update online prices based on changing market conditions. A second, Walmart Pricing and Demand Forecasting Patent Classification, relates to demand forecasting technology designed to estimate what customers will buy and recommend pricing accordingly. At the same time, Walmart is expanding digital shelf labels across its U.S. stores, replacing paper labels with centrally managed electronic displays.

Individually, none of these elements are new. Retailers have long used forecasting models, pricing tools, and store execution processes. What is notable is the combination.

Walmart now has three capabilities aligned:

Demand forecasting tied to predictive models

Price recommendation based on that demand

Store-level infrastructure capable of rapid execution

That combination reduces the operational friction historically associated with pricing in physical retail.

Pricing Moves Closer to Execution

Traditional store pricing changes required coordination across multiple steps: analysis, approval, printing, distribution, and manual shelf updates. That process introduced delay and inconsistency.

Digital shelf labels materially change that constraint. Prices can be updated centrally and executed across stores with significantly less manual intervention.

This does not change the underlying logic of pricing decisions. Retailers have always adjusted prices based on demand, competition, and margin targets. What changes is the speed and consistency of execution.

As a result, pricing moves closer to real-time operational control.

Implications for Supply Chain Operations

Pricing is not an isolated commercial function. It directly influences demand patterns, inventory flow, replenishment timing, and markdown activity.

When pricing becomes faster and more responsive, those linkages tighten.

Three implications are clear:

1. Increased Execution Speed
Retailers can align pricing decisions more quickly with current demand conditions, reducing lag between signal and action.

2. Stronger Dependence on Forecast Accuracy
When pricing recommendations are driven by predictive models, the quality of demand sensing becomes more consequential. Forecast errors can propagate more quickly into sales and inventory outcomes.

3. Closer Coupling of Merchandising and Supply Chain
Pricing decisions influence demand. Demand impacts inventory, replenishment, and store execution. Faster pricing cycles compress the distance between these functions.

Centralization and Control

Walmart has positioned its digital shelf label rollout as an efficiency and accuracy initiative. Centralized price management improves consistency between systems and store execution while reducing labor tied to manual updates.

That positioning aligns with the operational realities of large-scale retail. At Walmart’s footprint, even small improvements in execution efficiency translate into material cost and accuracy gains.

At the same time, the shift toward algorithm-supported pricing introduces standard enterprise control requirements. Organizations need clear governance around how pricing recommendations are generated, reviewed, and executed, particularly as systems become more automated.

A Broader Technology Pattern

Walmart’s patents are best understood as part of a broader shift in supply chain and retail technology.

AI and advanced analytics are moving closer to operational decision points. Forecasting models are no longer confined to planning environments; they are increasingly connected to systems that can act.

In this case, that connection spans:

Demand sensing

Price recommendation

Store-level execution

The result is a more tightly integrated operating model in which commercial decisions and supply chain execution are linked through software.

What This Signals

The significance of Walmart’s move is not tied to public debate over surge pricing scenarios. The underlying development is structural.

Retailers now have the ability to connect demand forecasting, pricing logic, and execution infrastructure into a faster decision loop.

For supply chain leaders, that represents a clear direction:

Execution is becoming more digital, more centralized, and more tightly coupled to predictive models.

The companies that benefit will be those that can align forecasting, pricing, and operational execution within a controlled, coordinated system.

The post Walmart AI Pricing Patents Signal Shift Toward Real-Time Retail Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Supply Chain and Logistics News March 16th-19th 2026

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Supply Chain And Logistics News March 16th 19th 2026

This week’s installment of Supply Chain and Logistics news includes stories about record increases in oil prices, Rivian’s autonomous taxis, and much more. Firstly, the Trump administration has issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old regulation that requires goods moved between US ports to be transported by US-built vessels, etc. Additionally, this week Uber & Rivian announced a partnership for Rivian to build 50,000 autonomous robotaxis by 2031 with over a billion dollars in investment from Uber. Schneider Electric and EcoVadis announced a partnership to target emissions in the health care sector. Lastly, DHL announces 10 warehousing sites to be used for data center manufacturing capacity, and Mind Robotics raises 100 million in series A funding.

Your Biggest Stories in Supply Chain and Logistics here:

Trump Administration Issues Pause on Century-old Maritime Law to Ease Oil Prices

The Trump administration has issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act. This century-old regulation typically requires goods moved between US ports to be carried on vessels that are US-built, US-owned, and US-crewed. However, with oil prices surging toward $100 a barrel due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, the suspension aims to ease logistics for vital commodities like oil, natural gas, and fertilizer. While the move is intended to lower costs at the pump and support farmers during the spring planting season, it has sparked a debate between those seeking immediate economic relief and domestic maritime unions concerned about the long-term impact on American shipping and labor.

Uber and Rivian Partner to Deploy up to 50,000 Fully Autonomous Robotaxis

Uber and Rivian have announced a massive strategic partnership that signals a major shift in the future of autonomous logistics and urban mobility. Under the terms of the deal, Uber is set to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, a move specifically tied to the achievement of key autonomous performance milestones. The primary focus of this collaboration is the deployment of a specialized fleet of fully autonomous R2 robotaxis, with an initial order of 10,000 vehicles and an option to scale up to 50,000 units. From a supply chain perspective, this represents a significant commitment to vertical integration; Rivian is managing the end-to-end production of the vehicle, the compute stack, and the sensor suite, including its in-house RAP1 AI chips, while Uber provides the scaled platform for deployment. Commercial operations are slated to begin in San Francisco and Miami in 2028, eventually expanding to 25 cities globally by 2031.

Schneider Electric and EcoVadis Announce Partnership to Decarbonize Global Healthcare Supply Chains

Schneider Electric, a major player in the digital transformation of energy management and automation, and EcoVadis, a provider of business sustainability ratings, have announced a strategic partnership aimed at accelerating decarbonization within the healthcare industry. “Energize” is a collective initiative to engage pharmaceutical industry suppliers in climate action. The collaboration focuses on addressing Scope 3 emissions, those generated within a company’s value chain, which often represent the largest portion of a healthcare organization’s carbon footprint. By combining Schneider Electric’s expertise in energy procurement and sustainability consulting with EcoVadis’s supplier monitoring and rating platform, the partnership provides a structured pathway for pharmaceutical and medical device companies to transition their global suppliers toward renewable energy.

Mind Robotics, a Rivian spin-off, raises $500 million in Series A Funding

RJ Scaringe, CEO of Rivian, is positioning his new $2 billion spin-off, Mind Robotics, as a technological solution to the chronic shortage of manufacturing labor in the Western world. By developing a “foundation model” that acts as an industrial brain alongside specialized mechatronic bodies, the company aims to move beyond the rigid, fixed-motion plans of traditional robotics toward systems capable of human-like reasoning and adaptation. Scaringe emphasizes that while these machines must perform with human-level dexterity, they don’t necessarily need to be humanoid in form; instead, the focus is on creating a data-driven “flywheel” within Rivian’s own facilities to lower production costs and help domestic manufacturing remain globally competitive.

DHL Expands North American Logistics Infrastructure Amid Growing Global Demand for Data Center Logistics Services

DHL is significantly scaling its data center logistics (DCL) footprint in North America, announcing the addition of 10 dedicated sites totaling over seven million square feet of warehousing capacity. This expansion is a direct response to the explosive demand for AI-driven infrastructure and the specific needs of hyperscale and colocation data center operators. By offering specialized services like rack pre-configuration, white-glove handling of sensitive IT hardware, and warehouse-to-site transportation, DHL is positioning itself as an end-to-end partner in a sector where 85% of operators express a preference for a single logistics provider. This move not only addresses the logistical complexities of moving high-value components like GPUs and cooling systems across global borders but also underscores the critical role of integrated supply chains in maintaining the build speed of the digital backbone.

Song of the Week:

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How to Capitalize Quickly to Address Hyperconnected Industrial Demand

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How To Capitalize Quickly To Address Hyperconnected Industrial Demand

This first in a blog series offers a review of discussion that occurred during ARC Advisory Group’s 2026 Industry Leadership Forum. Specifically, it details a keynote conversation held with senior executives from Rolls-Royce, BTX Precision, and MxD.

The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-Time Production

Industrial leaders have been talking about tearing down workflow and data silos for decades. Yet here we are again. For most, the reality is that most operations and supply chains today typically don’t indicate much progress. A few leaders have figured out how to use digital tools to scale and build pathways forward, a whopping 12.9% according to our latest data (yes, that’s sarcasm). However, even as they struggle to coordinate, orchestrate, and innovate across their operations and enterprise, much less tightly collaborate outside their four walls. In a digital world, this continued capability gap, the inability to closely link market signals to responsive production and external supply chains, is very quickly becoming a liability.

Recently, at the 30th Annual ARC Industry Leadership Forum in Orlando, I had the privilege of leading a keynote discussion entitled The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-Time Production. As part of that, I moderated an excellent conversation that included Global Commodity Executive Greg Davidson of Rolls-Royce, CEO Berardino Baratta of MxD, and CRO Jamie Goettler of BTX Precision.

In this four-part series, we will explore that conversation fully, digging into how the “fabric of market demand” has fundamentally changed, and why structural modernization, both human and technological, is no longer just an option. It is an industrial imperative that will increasingly determine who wins in disrupted markets.

Why Legacy Workflow Will Actually Get Modernized

If we examine the present through the lens of the past, the fundamental laws of supply and demand haven’t really changed. What has changed is the hyperconnectivity of the world and our compressed time to both reward and volatility.

The hard truth is that legacy linear workflows simply do not work in hyperconnected, digitally-driven environments, which are non-linear by nature. As our industrial environments become more digital, they naturally open up countless new ways for how things can get done and how risk can enter the organization. As a result, disruption has shifted from a rare event to a fairly continuous and pervasive reality. In this new reality, responsiveness differentiates you from the competition, and lag time kills.

To survive and thrive in non-linear environments, tighter, integrated ecosystems are required, where silos are actively torn down or redesigned so that barriers to value can be continuously identified and quickly eliminated. At the core, this concept is unfolding around data access, contextualization, and sharing. It provides the urgency behind the need for building industrial data fabrics.

This rewiring certainly extends beyond operations and enterprise processes, enabling the entirety of the supply chain to be judged on its collective responsiveness to the market, all the way down to the individual company level. In this scenario, data can quickly point out laggards who limit value. As the orchestrators of these supply chains identify these limitations on value, they quickly break off and discard the connection and move on without these weak links.

Pillars of the New Fabric of Demand

To achieve necessary level of operational and supply chain responsiveness, the roles of every entity within an ecosystem must be rethought. In the subsequent three blogs of this series, we will take a deep dive into the three distinct pillars that make up this modern architecture, but I’ll begin by laying them out here:

The Market Signal is the catalyst of the entire ecosystem. It dictates the “what” and the “when,” defining what value, success and risk look like in real-time. In blog 2, I’ll explore how to move from reactive assumptions to proactively capturing the market signals that actually matter.
The Demand Architect is moving beyond traditional order-taking. The Demand Architect designs and orchestrates the ecosystem, aligning external partners as true extensions of the enterprise. In blog 3, I’ll discuss the structural agility required to lead this response, rather than just manage a process.
The Agile Partner is the engine of execution. The Agile Partner links supply chain dynamics directly to the shop floor, differentiating themselves through their responsiveness to the market signal. In the final blog in the series, I’ll tackle how data transparency and trust become technical requirements, not just buzzwords, without exposing mission-critical IP.

Building the Modern Industrial Enterprise

Legacy workflows cannot survive in a non-linear world. Industrial organizations must re-architect operations and ecosystems for real-time responsiveness and secure, transparent collaboration. To do so, they will need to:

Improve the measurement of responsiveness: Efficiency and margin-squeezing are important, but they aren’t game-changers. Your competitive edge now relies on how quickly you can adapt to market signals.
Embrace transparency over secrecy: Modern collaboration requires providing a contextualized “lens” into production status without compromising proprietary IP or cybersecurity. Industrial data fabrics are key.
As always, view technology as a tool, not an outcome: Industrial data fabrics are needed to break silos and AI to manage complexity and improve accuracy and speed of decisions. However, the age-old adage remains true. Just because you can apply AI to something doesn’t mean you should. It must be grounded in measurable Value on Investment (VOI), not just return.

The New Fabric of Demand Blog Series

This is the first in a series of four on The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-Time Production. Over the coming days, I’ll publish a perspective from each of the three pillars of the new fabric of demand:

Pillar 1: The Market Signal
Pillar 2: The Demand Architect
Pillar 3: The Agile Partner

By Mike Guilfoyle, Vice President.

For more than two decades, Michael has assisted organizations, including numerous Fortune 500 companies, in identifying and capitalizing on growth opportunities and market disruption presented by the effects of digital economies, energy transition, and industrial sustainability on the energy, manufacturing, and technology industries.

The post How to Capitalize Quickly to Address Hyperconnected Industrial Demand appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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