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January 7, 2025 Update

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January 7, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update helps you stay on top of the latest developments in international freight by giving you the rundown on the latest economic data, ocean and air demand trends, rate data – and anything else impacting the market.

Judah Levine

January 7, 2025

Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index:

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 23% to $5,929/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 13% to $6,934/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 8% to $5,558/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 3% to $5,630/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 8% to $6.15/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 20% to $3.44/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 8% to $2.12/kg.

Analysis

The January 15th expiration of the interim ILA – USMX agreement set at the conclusion of the three day October strike is rapidly approaching.

Talks resumed but quickly collapsed in November with the sides far apart on the role of automation and semi-automation at these ports. Negotiations are scheduled to restart today though carriers are preparing for a strike, with Maersk urging shippers to pick up or return containers as soon as possible at East Coast and Gulf ports, and multiple carriers announcing mid-month disruption surcharges ranging from $850 to $2,000/FEU.

President elect Trump has explicitly backed the ILA position against automation, and with the deadline five days before the inauguration there’s speculation that the USMX – made up mostly of foreign ocean carriers – would face significant pressure to concede. In this scenario, if there is a strike it may be brief.

On the other hand, if the carriers expect to lose in any case, some suspect the carriers may hold out for longer, which would create congestion, backlogs, and increased freight rates and revenue for the carriers in the short term.

If the talks do not lead to a quick breakthrough we’ll likely see ports and carriers announce additional preparations like those in late September. These steps included deadlines to pick up or drop off containers, extended gate hours, reefer booking suspensions, some vessel diversions to East Coast alternatives for ships scheduled to arrive around the deadline, and stopped-clocks on demurrage charges for containers stuck at ports during the strike.

A prolonged shutdown would eventually impact vessel and container availability at origin ports in Europe and Asia, which could spread the strike’s impact beyond North America causing delays and rate increases for lanes out of those hubs.

A significant shift of volumes or diversions to the West Coast are probably unlikely, as many shippers, with peak shopping season just behind them, may be willing to have containers wait at sea or at ports rather than incur the additional costs and hassle of a coastal shift.

Unrelated to the possible strike, transpacific container rates climbed sharply to start the year on GRIs supported by pre-Lunar New Year demand. Prices are up to the $6,000/FEU level to the West Coast and at about $7,000/FEU to the East Coast, with West Coast prices already 20% higher than their LNY peak last year and East Coast rates 3% higher. Volumes are likely already stronger than usual on some frontloading ahead of expected tariff hikes. Though some carriers are considering an additional GRI mid-month, there is skepticism that another increase attempt would succeed so close to the holiday period.

Asia – Europe and Mediterranean rates climbed only moderately last week after significant increases in November and into early December as LNY demand started earlier than usual this year on these lanes due to longer lead times from Red Sea diversions. The pre-holiday rush, as well as some bad weather, is already leading to increased congestion and equipment shortages in China – with delays of up to four days in Shanghai, Qingdao and Ningbo – and in the Philippines and Vietnam as well.

Labor shortages and strikes in some areas are also leading to congestion and delays at European hubs like Hamburg and Rotterdam as well as ports in Spain and Italy. These factors could cause additional upward pressure on rates leading up to LNY.

Ex-Asia rates should ease as seasonal demand decreases later in February and into March. For Asia-Europe trade, prices may fall back to the $3,000-$4,000/FEU Red Sea-adjusted floor reached last March and again in October, though for the transpacific continued frontloading ahead of expected tariffs could keep rates from easing as significantly.

With air cargo’s peak season now over, Freightos Air Index data shows ex-China rates have started to decline. China – N. America prices that climbed past $7.00/kg in December are now back to about $6.00/kg. This level is one it held for much of H2 last year, but is still well above the long term non-peak average of about $2.00/kg as e-commerce volumes continue to impact the market.

Asia – Europe air rates fell back to $3.44/kg last week after climbing above the $5.00/kg mark briefly in mid-December. And transatlantic rates, which increased 75% to more than $3.00/kg from October to mid-December, have now eased to $2.12/kg. Much of the rate climb on this lane is attributed to peak season capacity shifts to the pacific, but the recent dip suggests some N. American peak season volumes were also being routed through Europe.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Supply Chain Planning Is Collapsing Into Execution and That Changes the Software Stack

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Executive thesis. The traditional separation between planning and execution is becoming structurally obsolete. Competitive advantage is shifting from producing a better periodic plan to shortening the cycle from operating signal to decision to executable response.

Periodic planning is giving way to continuous decision cycles

The legacy model assumed that supply chain planning was organized around periodic cycles: assemble the data, produce a forecast, optimize a plan, publish it, and then let execution teams absorb the consequences. That model is difficult to sustain when demand, inventory, transportation capacity, labor, supplier performance, and customer commitments can change faster than the formal planning cadence. The material shift is not that planning disappears. It is that planning becomes a continuously refreshed decision process that sits much closer to execution.

Execution constraints now define whether a plan is credible

A plan is only as credible as its understanding of the constraints that determine whether it can be executed. Available inventory, dock capacity, carrier acceptance, labor, production status, supplier reliability, and warehouse throughput can no longer be treated as downstream details. As those signals move upstream, planning systems need tighter connections to systems of execution and a more explicit model of what is feasible now—not what is mathematically desirable.

The architecture is reorganizing around decisions, not application silos

This changes the technology architecture. Traditional planning platforms, control towers, visibility systems, decision-intelligence layers, and execution applications overlap around the same questions: what changed, what is the business impact, what alternatives exist, and which action should be taken? The answer is unlikely to be one monolithic application. It is more likely to be an architecture in which planning models, event data, enterprise context, decision logic, and execution services interact with far less latency than they did in the classic plan-then-execute model.

Decision latency is becoming a first-order performance metric

The implication for supply chain leaders is that planning quality cannot be judged only by forecast accuracy or optimization quality. Decision latency matters as well. A technically superior plan that arrives after the operating window has closed has limited value. Enterprises should therefore examine how quickly their architecture can detect a material deviation, recalculate the relevant alternatives, expose tradeoffs, obtain the required approval, and propagate the decision into execution.

Buyer criteria must move from module coverage to decision performance

The evaluation question is no longer whether a planning product has the right modules. Buyers need to test how the system behaves when the operating environment departs from the plan. As a result, using real constraints, real data dependencies, realistic exception scenarios, and the systems that will ultimately execute the response. The strongest planning architecture will not eliminate judgment. It will make judgment faster, better informed, and easier to convert into controlled action.

For organizations reevaluating planning technology, the practical starting point is to define the decisions the planning environment must support, the constraints that make those decisions executable, and the evidence required to trust the result. The Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Planning Software: Buyer’s Guide provides a structured framework for that evaluation, including planning scope, architecture, scenario analysis, integration, and buyer proof points.

Executive implication

Leaders should evaluate planning technology as part of a continuous decision system, with execution constraints, decision latency, and closed-loop response treated as core design criteria.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. Planning, Execution & Visibility connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Supply Chain Planning Market Map
2026 Supply Chain Decision Intelligence Market Map

Go Deeper

Read the full Supply Chain Planning Software: Buyer’s Guide.

Explore the broader Planning, Execution & Visibility domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

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Why WMS Architecture Now Matters as Much as Feature Breadth

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Warehouse management systems are being pushed into a continuously changing execution environment, making architecture as important as feature breadth. The pressure is not simply to add more automation or AI, but to keep the operating plan aligned with physical reality as that reality changes.

Labor scarcity, tighter customer cutoffs, omnichannel fulfillment, higher sku complexity, automation investment, faster order cycles, and the need to coordinate people and machines in real time are shortening the useful life of any plan. A decision that was correct an hour ago can become wrong when a carrier rejects, a dock closes, an order changes, a piece of automation fails, or a priority customer needs a different response. That architectural emphasis follows naturally from The Warehouse Is Becoming a Cyber-Physical System, where software design directly shapes the behavior of labor, automation, inventory, and physical flow.

The relevant operating events include a late inbound trailer, a constrained dock, a wave that threatens a carrier cutoff, an automation cell that goes down, or an urgent order that must be reprioritized without destabilizing the rest of the facility. These are not unusual edge cases; they are the normal variability of modern logistics. The market is therefore rewarding platforms that can absorb change without forcing every exception into a manual coordination loop.

Architecture is becoming a product differentiator

The operating architecture is ERP and OMS upstream; WMS at the inventory-and-work core; WES/WCS, robotics, conveyors, sortation, labor systems, YMS, parcel, and TMS around the execution edge. This means provider differentiation increasingly depends on event latency, API and network connectivity, data-model quality, workflow controls, and the ability to preserve a coherent operating state across boundaries.

Feature parity can hide large architectural differences. One platform may expose an event after the fact; another may use that event to re-evaluate priorities, prepare a response, and push a governed action into the next system. Both can claim visibility or AI. Only one has compressed the operating loop.

AI matters when it changes the decision cycle

The next layer of value is not AI as a separate product. It is intelligence embedded into the decisions the category already owns. WMS is moving from a transactional warehouse application toward a real-time execution and orchestration layer that coordinates inventory, labor, automation, and downstream transportation constraints The strongest use cases combine reliable execution data, explicit constraints, explainable recommendations, and controlled action rather than treating a model output as the endpoint.

A serious evaluation should test operational fit, configurability without excessive customization, automation integration, real-time work orchestration, data and API architecture, scalability, implementation model, upgradeability, and measurable warehouse outcomes. Buyers should also measure inventory accuracy, order cycle time, throughput, labor productivity, dock-to-stock time, order accuracy, exception volume, automation utilization, and recovery time after disruption. Those measures reveal whether the new capability is actually improving flow, responsiveness, cost, and service or simply creating more software activity.

The market shift is therefore structural. Technology boundaries are blurring because the work itself is becoming more connected. Providers that understand the operating loop will increasingly look different from products built around a static transaction model.

Architecture shows up in warehouse operating metrics

Architecture can sound abstract until it is translated into the measures a distribution center already cares about. Event latency affects how quickly supervisors react to a blocked zone. Integration quality affects whether automation receives the right work at the right time. Data integrity affects inventory accuracy and pick completion. Decision orchestration affects dwell, cutoff performance, backlog, and the amount of work managers have to manually resequence.

For that reason, buyers should connect architecture questions to measurable outcomes. Ask providers to demonstrate what happens when an inbound trailer is late, a work area becomes constrained, an automation cell stops, or an urgent customer order enters after work has been released. The stronger platform is the one that preserves a coherent operating state and adapts without requiring a chain of manual reconciliation.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Warehouse Management Systems Market Map
The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
The Digital Backbone of the Warehouse: Trends Shaping the 2026 WMS Market
Previous in this series: What Is a WMS in 2026? The Warehouse Management System Is Becoming Something More

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The 2026 Market Map is designed to help organizations understand the structure of the WMS market, evaluate provider differences, and identify the capabilities most relevant to their operating environment. If your organization is evaluating WMS platforms or preparing a shortlist, I would be glad to provide the Market Map brochure and discuss the evaluation questions and provider differences most relevant to your requirements.

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Shipsy Connects Transportation Orchestration With Exception Response

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Transportation management is expanding beyond planning loads and tendering freight. Modern platforms are increasingly expected to coordinate carriers, track execution, optimize routes, manage exceptions, communicate with stakeholders, and use live operating data to adjust decisions while freight is moving.

Shipsy is positioned around that broader logistics-orchestration model. Its cloud platform spans transportation management, carrier allocation, freight procurement, shipment tracking, route optimization, first-mile through last-mile workflows, and analytics. The company also emphasizes AI-enabled capabilities intended to automate planning and execution decisions across increasingly complex logistics networks.

The connection to exception management is significant. Transportation generates a constant stream of deviations: capacity changes, missed pickups, route delays, delivery risks, documentation problems, and customer-service exceptions. A platform that already coordinates transportation workflows has the opportunity to detect those events, assess their impact, and automate an appropriate response inside the same operating environment.

The buyer question is how well those capabilities scale across real-world complexity. Organizations should evaluate optimization quality, carrier and system connectivity, geographic depth, data latency, workflow configurability, and governance for automated actions. The most useful AI in transportation will be the AI that reliably improves execution, not simply the AI that adds another interface.

Shipsy is included in the Logistics Viewpoints Transportation Management Systems MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The combination reflects the increasingly close relationship between transportation management and the systems responsible for identifying and resolving operational exceptions.

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