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Black Swans and Supply Chain Visibility Now that Volatility is the New Normal

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Black Swans and Supply Chain Visibility Now that Volatility is the New Normal

Judah Levine

December 9, 2024

Freightos was delighted to host its seventh annual FreighTech conference recently, bringing together leaders in freight technology and digitalization across carriers, forwarders, BCOs and tech providers once again to discuss progress achieved, explore opportunities for collaboration and imagine the future.

One of the key themes that emerged was that forwarders and BCOs – especially with the last few particularly volatile years for the industry serving as a catalyst for tech adoption – are looking to tech for better visibility and the many and varied benefits that better visibility can provide.

The following is a compilation based on select speakers at the event.

Black (Swan) is the New White

Since 2019, supply chains and logistics have seen one black swan event after another disrupt operations and impact costs starting with trade wars and the pandemic and continuing through the Ever Given, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, multiple labor disruptions, and now a possible renewed trade war.

But as Bjorn Vang Jensen of Nanooq Consulting pointed out, recurring events shouldn’t be thought of as black swans, but as the new normal. And instead of lamenting their detrimental impact after the fact, logistics professionals would do better to learn lessons and develop strategies to be prepared for the inevitable next disruption.

We like to label things ‘black swan events’ to rationalize not being prepared for them, but most of these types of disruptions – labor, geopolitical events, weather – are all reasonable to expect.

Bjorn Vang Jensen, Nanooq Consulting

Jensen focussed on inefficiencies in long term ocean contracts – which become unreliable when unexpected changes in the market push container spot rates too far above or below contract rates – and touted pricing visibility via the strategy of linking contracts to an index to prepare for unanticipated market shocks and ensure reliability.

Freightos research found that container spot rate fluctuations during the pandemic led to poor contract reliability. Index-linked contracts would let contract rates fluctuate relative to the market, removing incentives for contract failures

But the concept of investing in some hard work upfront to protect shippers and carriers from wasted time – later this “expect the unexpected through better visibility” sentiment – was shared again and again as a key lesson of the last few years with multiple examples of tech-enabled strategies.

Volatility and Tech’s Role in Managing It

As the ocean contracting example argues, arriving at better and actionable visibility involves two shifts:

To a culture aimed to prepare for and not just react to supply chain disruptions.

To determining which tools can help execute that strategy.

For BCOs like Electrolux, explained Paolo Galli, VP of Logistics, the supply chain disruptions they experienced during the pandemic caused a shift from a “playing checkers” mindset toward logistics – to playing chess.

Healthcare logistics managers, for example, were used to predictable supply chains, but that changed dramatically during the pandemic. Matthias Mentschel of Bayer explained that the lesson learned for him was the need for tech that could not only provide visibility, but also prepare them to detect and react to unforeseen disruptions.

Bayer invested in a logistics platform that integrates supply chain data and communication across internal teams and developed a catalog of strategies to be deployed in the event of a range of disruption scenarios. In this way, they are able not only to know when problems arise, but quickly make that information actionable, with a plan well-defined ahead of time.

Galli of Electrolux and Martin Polakovic of Lenovo echoed this sentiment from the shipper side saying that what they’d like most from logistics technology is better control and accessibility of their data, all in one platform – preferably the one they’re already using.

The importance of integrating data as well as the multiple tools that BCOs or forwarders are already using or adding to their stack – as explored in a previous FreighTech24 article – is key to realizing the efficiencies that tech promises. But integration is also key to this strategy of expecting another black swan, and achieving actionable visibility for when one does appear.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Supply Chain Planning Is Collapsing Into Execution and That Changes the Software Stack

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Executive thesis. The traditional separation between planning and execution is becoming structurally obsolete. Competitive advantage is shifting from producing a better periodic plan to shortening the cycle from operating signal to decision to executable response.

Periodic planning is giving way to continuous decision cycles

The legacy model assumed that supply chain planning was organized around periodic cycles: assemble the data, produce a forecast, optimize a plan, publish it, and then let execution teams absorb the consequences. That model is difficult to sustain when demand, inventory, transportation capacity, labor, supplier performance, and customer commitments can change faster than the formal planning cadence. The material shift is not that planning disappears. It is that planning becomes a continuously refreshed decision process that sits much closer to execution.

Execution constraints now define whether a plan is credible

A plan is only as credible as its understanding of the constraints that determine whether it can be executed. Available inventory, dock capacity, carrier acceptance, labor, production status, supplier reliability, and warehouse throughput can no longer be treated as downstream details. As those signals move upstream, planning systems need tighter connections to systems of execution and a more explicit model of what is feasible now—not what is mathematically desirable.

The architecture is reorganizing around decisions, not application silos

This changes the technology architecture. Traditional planning platforms, control towers, visibility systems, decision-intelligence layers, and execution applications overlap around the same questions: what changed, what is the business impact, what alternatives exist, and which action should be taken? The answer is unlikely to be one monolithic application. It is more likely to be an architecture in which planning models, event data, enterprise context, decision logic, and execution services interact with far less latency than they did in the classic plan-then-execute model.

Decision latency is becoming a first-order performance metric

The implication for supply chain leaders is that planning quality cannot be judged only by forecast accuracy or optimization quality. Decision latency matters as well. A technically superior plan that arrives after the operating window has closed has limited value. Enterprises should therefore examine how quickly their architecture can detect a material deviation, recalculate the relevant alternatives, expose tradeoffs, obtain the required approval, and propagate the decision into execution.

Buyer criteria must move from module coverage to decision performance

The evaluation question is no longer whether a planning product has the right modules. Buyers need to test how the system behaves when the operating environment departs from the plan. As a result, using real constraints, real data dependencies, realistic exception scenarios, and the systems that will ultimately execute the response. The strongest planning architecture will not eliminate judgment. It will make judgment faster, better informed, and easier to convert into controlled action.

For organizations reevaluating planning technology, the practical starting point is to define the decisions the planning environment must support, the constraints that make those decisions executable, and the evidence required to trust the result. The Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Planning Software: Buyer’s Guide provides a structured framework for that evaluation, including planning scope, architecture, scenario analysis, integration, and buyer proof points.

Executive implication

Leaders should evaluate planning technology as part of a continuous decision system, with execution constraints, decision latency, and closed-loop response treated as core design criteria.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. Planning, Execution & Visibility connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Supply Chain Planning Market Map
2026 Supply Chain Decision Intelligence Market Map

Go Deeper

Read the full Supply Chain Planning Software: Buyer’s Guide.

Explore the broader Planning, Execution & Visibility domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

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Why WMS Architecture Now Matters as Much as Feature Breadth

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Warehouse management systems are being pushed into a continuously changing execution environment, making architecture as important as feature breadth. The pressure is not simply to add more automation or AI, but to keep the operating plan aligned with physical reality as that reality changes.

Labor scarcity, tighter customer cutoffs, omnichannel fulfillment, higher sku complexity, automation investment, faster order cycles, and the need to coordinate people and machines in real time are shortening the useful life of any plan. A decision that was correct an hour ago can become wrong when a carrier rejects, a dock closes, an order changes, a piece of automation fails, or a priority customer needs a different response. That architectural emphasis follows naturally from The Warehouse Is Becoming a Cyber-Physical System, where software design directly shapes the behavior of labor, automation, inventory, and physical flow.

The relevant operating events include a late inbound trailer, a constrained dock, a wave that threatens a carrier cutoff, an automation cell that goes down, or an urgent order that must be reprioritized without destabilizing the rest of the facility. These are not unusual edge cases; they are the normal variability of modern logistics. The market is therefore rewarding platforms that can absorb change without forcing every exception into a manual coordination loop.

Architecture is becoming a product differentiator

The operating architecture is ERP and OMS upstream; WMS at the inventory-and-work core; WES/WCS, robotics, conveyors, sortation, labor systems, YMS, parcel, and TMS around the execution edge. This means provider differentiation increasingly depends on event latency, API and network connectivity, data-model quality, workflow controls, and the ability to preserve a coherent operating state across boundaries.

Feature parity can hide large architectural differences. One platform may expose an event after the fact; another may use that event to re-evaluate priorities, prepare a response, and push a governed action into the next system. Both can claim visibility or AI. Only one has compressed the operating loop.

AI matters when it changes the decision cycle

The next layer of value is not AI as a separate product. It is intelligence embedded into the decisions the category already owns. WMS is moving from a transactional warehouse application toward a real-time execution and orchestration layer that coordinates inventory, labor, automation, and downstream transportation constraints The strongest use cases combine reliable execution data, explicit constraints, explainable recommendations, and controlled action rather than treating a model output as the endpoint.

A serious evaluation should test operational fit, configurability without excessive customization, automation integration, real-time work orchestration, data and API architecture, scalability, implementation model, upgradeability, and measurable warehouse outcomes. Buyers should also measure inventory accuracy, order cycle time, throughput, labor productivity, dock-to-stock time, order accuracy, exception volume, automation utilization, and recovery time after disruption. Those measures reveal whether the new capability is actually improving flow, responsiveness, cost, and service or simply creating more software activity.

The market shift is therefore structural. Technology boundaries are blurring because the work itself is becoming more connected. Providers that understand the operating loop will increasingly look different from products built around a static transaction model.

Architecture shows up in warehouse operating metrics

Architecture can sound abstract until it is translated into the measures a distribution center already cares about. Event latency affects how quickly supervisors react to a blocked zone. Integration quality affects whether automation receives the right work at the right time. Data integrity affects inventory accuracy and pick completion. Decision orchestration affects dwell, cutoff performance, backlog, and the amount of work managers have to manually resequence.

For that reason, buyers should connect architecture questions to measurable outcomes. Ask providers to demonstrate what happens when an inbound trailer is late, a work area becomes constrained, an automation cell stops, or an urgent customer order enters after work has been released. The stronger platform is the one that preserves a coherent operating state and adapts without requiring a chain of manual reconciliation.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

2026 Warehouse Management Systems Market Map
The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
The Digital Backbone of the Warehouse: Trends Shaping the 2026 WMS Market
Previous in this series: What Is a WMS in 2026? The Warehouse Management System Is Becoming Something More

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The 2026 Market Map is designed to help organizations understand the structure of the WMS market, evaluate provider differences, and identify the capabilities most relevant to their operating environment. If your organization is evaluating WMS platforms or preparing a shortlist, I would be glad to provide the Market Map brochure and discuss the evaluation questions and provider differences most relevant to your requirements.

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Shipsy Connects Transportation Orchestration With Exception Response

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Transportation management is expanding beyond planning loads and tendering freight. Modern platforms are increasingly expected to coordinate carriers, track execution, optimize routes, manage exceptions, communicate with stakeholders, and use live operating data to adjust decisions while freight is moving.

Shipsy is positioned around that broader logistics-orchestration model. Its cloud platform spans transportation management, carrier allocation, freight procurement, shipment tracking, route optimization, first-mile through last-mile workflows, and analytics. The company also emphasizes AI-enabled capabilities intended to automate planning and execution decisions across increasingly complex logistics networks.

The connection to exception management is significant. Transportation generates a constant stream of deviations: capacity changes, missed pickups, route delays, delivery risks, documentation problems, and customer-service exceptions. A platform that already coordinates transportation workflows has the opportunity to detect those events, assess their impact, and automate an appropriate response inside the same operating environment.

The buyer question is how well those capabilities scale across real-world complexity. Organizations should evaluate optimization quality, carrier and system connectivity, geographic depth, data latency, workflow configurability, and governance for automated actions. The most useful AI in transportation will be the AI that reliably improves execution, not simply the AI that adds another interface.

Shipsy is included in the Logistics Viewpoints Transportation Management Systems MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The combination reflects the increasingly close relationship between transportation management and the systems responsible for identifying and resolving operational exceptions.

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