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Asia – Med rates back to pre-peak levels as Red Sea transits increase – September 22, 2026 Update

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 4%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 15%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 7%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 1%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 18%.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 3%.

Analysis

Trade talks continue between the US and China as representatives work to prepare the ground for the Xi -Trump meeting this week. The negotiations are reportedly aimed at maintaining stability in the fragile trade relationship, as opposed to pushing major policy shifts in either direction.

Tariffs introduced by the US since the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA restored duties on China to within 7.5 percentage points of the level agreed upon between the sides last November, with the agreement set to expire this November.

The USTR has reportedly concluded an additional Section 301 investigation, focused on issues of excess manufacturing capacity, and recommending an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese exports. The White House seemed ready to announce this increase before the September meeting, but the administration is now expected to hold off on the announcement – either to avoid a possible escalation, or to use the findings as leverage in the current negotiations.

The administration is reportedly prepared to offer a three to six month extension of the current trade truce, which includes not only tariff levels – changes to which could impact international logistics – but also the pause of $1M US port call fees on China-linked vessels. The fees went into effect in mid-October of last year. China quickly imposed similar fees on US vessels until the sides announced a one-year pause on November 10th.

Despite the early start to east-west ocean peak season back in May which pushed container rates up sharply into early July, transpacific rates remain at about peak levels while Asia – Europe prices continue to cool.

Resilient transpacific demand – possibly helped by the lack of a tariff hike in late July, and now including a last push to get containers moved before the Golden Week holiday – alongside persistent, weather-driven, Far East port congestion and blanked sailings, are keeping container rates at year highs.

Far East – West Coast prices increased 4% to more than $8,100/FEU last week, with East Coast rates about level at $9,600/FEU. Some of the blanked sailings are likely due to delays and schedule disruptions caused by the congestion, while carriers are also using the capacity reductions to adjust to the expected lower volumes over the holiday-period, and the likely easing demand later in October as peak season comes to an end. But analysis that nonetheless shows a lower rate of cancellations compared to recent years may reflect the relative demand strength also at play.

Some indices see these transpacific rate levels as approaching pandemic-era highs. But Freightos Baltic Index data show that at the peak of the unprecedented COVID-driven demand surge and the resulting extreme port congestion in September of 2021, transpacific West Coast rates reached an all-time high of more than $20,000/FEU. At the time, carriers were not moving spot shipments booked at base rates, meaning that the actual market price to move a container needed to include premium surcharges – normally optional, but during this span required – which pushed the FBX benchmark to those historic highs.

So, while current market conditions are putting significant pressure on rates – and pushing them back to levels last seen during peak season 2024 when Red Sea capacity constraints were a major factor – FBX data suggest we aren’t nearing pandemic levels just yet.

Asia – Europe container rates continued their gradual decline from peak season highs as volumes cool. Asia – N. Europe prices fell 15% last week to $3,700/FEU, down from a July peak of almost $6K/FEU but still about $1,000/FEU higher than before peak season began in late May. Asia – Mediterranean rates however – which decreased 7% to $3,900/FEU last week, down from more than $7K/FEU in July – have eased all the way back to May levels.

The sharper decline for prices to the Mediterranean may be due both to the sharper increase in effective capacity via more Red Sea transits for vessels servicing this lane compared to those to or from N. Europe, and to congestion at N. Europe hubs – including from low water levels in the Rhine River – constraining capacity on Asia – N. Europe trades. The Verdi labor union in Germany is voting on a possible indefinite port strike as early as October, which would worsen congestion challenges in the region.

In air cargo, China – N. Europe prices fell 18% back to mid-August levels of $4.30/kg last week, as the market continues to see lower volumes as e-commerce demand slows. China – US rates were stable at about $6.50/kg though daily prices so far this week are trending upwards.

Freightos Terminal: Real-time pricing dashboards to benchmark rates and track market trends.

Procure: Streamlined procurement and cost savings with digital rate management and automated workflows.

Rate, Book, & Manage: Real-time rate comparison, instant booking, and easy tracking at every shipment stage.

The post Asia – Med rates back to pre-peak levels as Red Sea transits increase – September 22, 2026 Update appeared first on Freightos.

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Transportation Is Becoming Computational

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A transportation plan can be optimal at 8:00 a.m. and obsolete by 8:20.

A driver calls out. Traffic changes. A customer appointment moves. A warehouse falls behind. A carrier rejects a tender. A shipment that looked routine becomes urgent. Fuel, weather, capacity, and order priorities continue changing after the plan has been released. This is the architectural consequence of the category shift described in The TMS Is Expanding Beyond Planning: transportation software increasingly participates continuously in execution rather than handing off a static plan.

Transportation has always been dynamic. What is changing is the ability of software to observe more of those changes and recompute decisions while the operation is still in motion.

Transportation is becoming computational.

From Planning Cycle to Decision Stream

Traditional transportation management depends on planning cycles. Orders are consolidated, routes are built, carriers are selected, loads are tendered, and dispatch plans are released.

That remains necessary. But the boundary between planning and execution is becoming less distinct. When ETA, traffic, capacity, driver status, order changes, and facility conditions are continuously available, the system can continuously ask whether the existing plan is still the best feasible plan. The operating model moves from “plan, then execute” toward “plan, execute, observe, and re-optimize.”

Dynamic Routing Is More Than Traffic Avoidance

Routing illustrates the change.

A static route may account for distance, delivery windows, vehicle capacity, and known constraints. A dynamic routing process can incorporate changing traffic, new orders, cancellations, driver hours, facility delays, and service priorities.

The computational challenge is not simply finding the mathematically shortest route. It is finding a feasible route under real operating constraints and determining whether the benefit of changing the plan exceeds the disruption created by the change itself. Optimization therefore requires judgment about stability as well as efficiency.

Freight Procurement Is Compressing

Transportation procurement is also moving closer to execution. Contracted capacity remains fundamental, but digital freight processes can make supplemental capacity searches, spot decisions, and carrier matching faster. The practical opportunity is to reduce the manual effort required to identify options when the primary plan fails.

That does not eliminate relationships, contracts, or procurement strategy. It reduces the time between recognizing a capacity problem and assembling a viable alternative.

ETA Becomes an Operating Variable

ETA prediction is often presented as a visibility feature. Operationally, it is more important than that.

A sufficiently reliable ETA can change dock schedules, labor plans, customer communications, downstream transportation, and inventory decisions. It becomes a variable inside other optimization problems. The value of ETA therefore depends less on whether the prediction is displayed and more on whether downstream systems can use it.

Telematics Turns Assets into Data Sources

Connected vehicles and telematics have expanded the amount of real-time state available to transportation operations. Location, speed, vehicle condition, driver status, and other signals can improve dispatch and exception management. But the same warning applies here as elsewhere in logistics: more signals can create more noise.

The operational requirement is to convert telemetry into a manageable set of decisions. A system that generates thousands of alerts without prioritization can increase planner workload rather than reduce it.

Dispatch Becomes a Human-Machine Problem

Dispatch has historically depended heavily on human experience because transportation contains ambiguity, relationships, and exceptions that are difficult to encode. That will not disappear. But software can increasingly perform the computational work around the dispatcher: identify at-risk loads, assemble context, calculate alternatives, estimate downstream consequences, draft communications, and execute routine changes within defined rules. The dispatcher moves from searching for information toward supervising decisions.

Continuous Optimization Has a Cost

Re-optimization is not automatically beneficial. Every plan change can impose switching costs on drivers, carriers, warehouses, customers, and systems. Constantly changing instructions can destabilize an operation.

The goal is therefore not maximum computational activity. It is better decisions at the moments when changing the plan creates more value than preserving it.

This is an important distinction as AI enters transportation. The smartest system may sometimes decide to do nothing.

The Economics of Computational Transportation

The potential value spans freight cost, empty miles, asset utilization, driver productivity, service, and planner capacity. But one of the largest opportunities may be responsiveness.

Transportation organizations spend enormous effort managing deviations from plan. If software can recognize a deviation earlier, calculate its consequence, and assemble a feasible response faster, the operation gains decision capacity without necessarily adding people. That makes transportation increasingly dependent on the quality of its observation and control architecture.

From Transportation Management to Continuous Execution

TMS remains the core platform for many transportation operations. The change is that the environment around TMS is becoming richer: telematics, real-time visibility, carrier connectivity, APIs, optimization, AI, and orchestration. Together, those capabilities allow transportation decisions to be revisited at a cadence that was previously impractical.

But continuous computation only creates value when the system knows what matters. That brings transportation directly to the next question in the architecture: what is logistics visibility actually worth?

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Transportation Management Systems Market Map
Sustainable Transportation Management Drives Performance
Previous in this series: The Warehouse Is Becoming a Cyber-Physical System

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SAP Treats Supply Chain Intelligence as Part of the Enterprise Backbone

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SAP’s role in supply chain technology is difficult to separate from its role in the enterprise itself. For many large organizations, supply chain decisions already intersect with SAP-based financial, manufacturing, procurement, and commercial processes. That gives the company a natural platform from which to connect planning and execution more tightly.

Within supply chain, SAP combines capabilities such as Integrated Business Planning, Extended Warehouse Management, Transportation Management, S/4HANA, analytics, and business-network connectivity. The strategic value is not simply the breadth of those products. It is the potential to maintain common data, governance, and process context as a decision moves from planning into operational execution.

That architecture is particularly relevant in complex, multi-tier environments where bills of material, capacity, inventory, supplier constraints, transportation requirements, and financial objectives need to be evaluated together. It also creates a foundation for AI that is grounded in enterprise context rather than added as an isolated assistant sitting outside core business processes.

The tradeoff is implementation weight. SAP environments can be powerful precisely because they are deeply connected to the enterprise, but that depth increases the importance of clean master data, process discipline, integration design, and change management. Buyers should evaluate the operating model they are creating, not just the features they are licensing.

SAP’s breadth is reflected in Logistics Viewpoints research through the Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap, Transportation Management Systems MarketMap, and Warehouse Management Systems MarketMap. Viewed together, the three MarketMaps show how SAP participates across decisions, transportation, and warehouse execution.

The post SAP Treats Supply Chain Intelligence as Part of the Enterprise Backbone appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Fleet Telematics Is Shifting From Vehicle Tracking to Operational Intelligence

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Executive thesis. Fleet telematics is moving beyond location visibility into operational intelligence. The value is shifting from knowing where an asset is to improving the decisions that govern safety, utilization, maintenance, energy, and driver execution.

Location is now the baseline

Knowing where a vehicle is remains material, but it is no longer a sufficient definition of fleet telematics. Modern fleet operations generate a much richer operating record: speed, harsh events, video, engine conditions, fuel or energy consumption, maintenance signals, route adherence, idling, driver behavior, and asset utilization. The strategic question is how that telemetry changes decisions.

Safety is becoming a closed-loop workflow

Video and sensor data can identify risky behavior, but value depends on the workflow that follows. The system needs to distinguish meaningful events from noise, place them in context, route them to the right supervisor, support coaching, and preserve evidence. That requires model quality, policy, privacy controls, and operational discipline. A larger event stream without a better process can increase administrative burden instead of reducing risk.

Maintenance and utilization are converging with operations

Diagnostic data can support earlier maintenance decisions, while utilization data can reveal whether assets are underused, poorly assigned, or misaligned with demand. These are not separate analytical exercises. They affect dispatch, capacity, cost, service, and capital planning. As telematics becomes more deeply integrated with transportation systems, the fleet becomes part of a broader operational decision environment.

Energy data raises the stakes

Electrification makes telemetry even more operationally consequential. State of charge, charging availability, duty cycle, temperature, route conditions, and dwell time can influence whether a vehicle can complete the work assigned to it. That pushes energy management closer to dispatch and route planning and increases the need for clean integration between telematics, TMS, maintenance, and charging systems.

Buyers should evaluate workflows, not dashboards

The strongest telematics evaluation starts with the decisions the operation needs to improve: safety, maintenance, utilization, fuel or energy, driver performance, compliance, and service. Buyers should then test whether the platform turns raw telemetry into reliable events, actionable workflows, and measurable outcomes. The amount of data collected is far less material than the quality of the operating response.

Logistics Viewpoints’ Fleet Telematics Systems: Buyer’s Guide provides a practical evaluation framework spanning location, safety, video, maintenance, fuel and EV data, diagnostics, privacy, integration, and fleet operating workflows.

Executive implication

The buyer test should focus on closed-loop operating workflows and measurable outcomes rather than telemetry volume or dashboard breadth.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. Transportation & Logistics Operations connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

Transportation Emissions Management: Technology, Data, and Measurement

Go Deeper

Read the full Fleet Telematics Systems: Buyer’s Guide.

Explore the broader Transportation & Logistics Operations domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

The post Fleet Telematics Is Shifting From Vehicle Tracking to Operational Intelligence appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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