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Ocean rates climb again even as fuel costs ease – June 23, 2026 Update

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Ocean rates climb again even as fuel costs ease – June 23, 2026 Update

Published: June 25, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 19%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 13%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 13%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 16%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 17%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices were level.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2%.

Analysis

The US-Iran interim agreement appears to be driving a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even with Iran announcing a renewed closure following Israel and Hezbollah exchanges of fire.

Though still well below pre-war levels, Hormuz transits have increased since the announcement of the Memorandum of Understanding. As part of this week’s renewed negotiations, Iran and the US have opened a hotline between the two to avoid miscommunications regarding traffic through the Strait. But talks have also shown Iran intends to assert some control over the waterway as part of the settlement – a big shift from the pre-war status quo.

The renewed traffic comprises mostly tankers, and container carriers are likely to activate mostly feeder services instead of long haul port calls to the Gulf once transits do rebound and until confidence returns to the lane. The prospect of peace has driven CMA CGM to increase its Red Sea transits, which could signal more carriers will follow that lead at some point if negotiations progress.

The prospect of more stability as well as the fact of an increase in oil flows have already driven down crude prices, with some measures now only 5% higher than before the war. Bunker and jet fuel prices are also easing with bunker rates down 25% from their March highs and 12% compared just to the start of June, though prices remain about 40% higher than in February. Jet fuel prices are down more than 40% from their peak and are 20% higher than before the closure.

But even as fuel costs ease, container rates continue to climb as peaking demand from an early busy season is keeping vessels full at least into July. This development likewise means spot rates will start easing from the current or near term levels as demand decreases, regardless of what happens in the Strait.

The early start to peak season – driven by multiple factors including frontloading ahead of BAF increases, coming Section 122 tariff expirations and Section 301 introductions for transpacific shippers, and July manufacturer price hikes – has some observers expecting bookings to peak in June, which could mean carriers will find more resistance to July rate increases than they have to June price hikes so far.

For now though, prices are high and getting higher. Transpacific rates climbed 19% to the West Coast to more than $5,700/FEU, with daily prices past the $6k/FEU mark so far this week. Rates to the East Coast increased 13% to $7,400/FEU last week with daily rates now past $8,000/FEU – a mark already above last year’s peak season high. Some carriers have announced additional steep increases for July.

Asia – Europe rates grew 13% last week to $4,700/FEU and Asia – Mediterranean prices increased 16% to $6,300/FEU, both well above last year’s peak season highs but level so far this week. The recent increases pushed Mediterranean rates to about the announced GRI or PSS levels, while Europe prices are about $1k/FEU beneath the target set by several carriers.

Planned July increases have some carriers aspiring for Asia – Europe rates $3k/FEU higher than current levels and Mediterranean prices $1-$2k/FEU higher, with increases announced across an array of secondary lanes as well.

The sharp June rate gains show that even as the global fleet continues to grow, significant increases in demand and shipper urgency – currently helped along by a fuel price-adjusted elevated starting point, Red Sea diversions, and peak season congestion causing delays and likewise effectively reducing capacity – are still enough to push spot prices to very elevated levels, at least for a while.

But with rates on some lanes already below aspired-to levels, and frontloading implying an early end to the fairly sudden demand boom, the question remains how much higher prices will climb and for how long.

As noted, jet fuel prices have eased since the prospects of a reopened Hormuz have increased. So far though, air cargo rates have stayed level, though down from earlier highs on most lanes, including for China, South Asia and Southeast Asia cargo flows to Europe. Prices to N. America have nonetheless trended upward, possibly buoyed by last chance Amazon Prime Day demand.

The European Union will suspend its de minimis exemption on July 1st. Though many observers expected last year’s US rule change to drive a transpacific e-commerce exodus from the air, the big e-comm platforms mostly adjusted tactics, preserving e-comm volumes as a still major – if not as colossal – driver of air demand. Most experts, therefore, don’t expect the EU rule change to trigger a sharp drop in e-comm flows or air rates.

But the change will make the EU, in comparison, suddenly much less attractive to cross-border e-comm sellers than the nearby UK market, which will only change its de minimis rules in 2029. This looming disparity has some in the UK warning of a coming flood of low cost goods starting in July, and urging the government to expedite the policy shift.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Automated Storage & Retrieval Systems — Orlando

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Warehouse automation is moving quickly from a specialized investment to a core component of modern distribution strategy. Automated storage and retrieval systems, or AS/RS, are increasingly central to that transition, helping companies increase storage density, improve throughput, reduce manual travel, and make better use of increasingly expensive warehouse space.

In this Logistics Viewpoints video, recorded in Orlando, we discuss the evolution of automated storage and retrieval systems and what these technologies mean for warehouse and distribution operations.

The conversation looks beyond the equipment itself. As warehouses become more automated, companies increasingly need to think about how storage, material movement, software, labor, and broader fulfillment processes operate as an integrated system.

For supply chain leaders evaluating warehouse automation, AS/RS is becoming part of a much larger question: what should the warehouse of the next decade look like, and where does automation create the greatest operational value?

Watch the full Logistics Viewpoints discussion below.

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ARC Forum – What Is the Forum and How Do I Get Involved?

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The ARC Industry Forum brings together executives, technology suppliers, manufacturers, infrastructure operators, analysts, and other industry leaders to examine how technology is changing industrial operations.

But the Forum is more than a conference. It is an opportunity for the industrial technology community to compare strategies, understand emerging technologies, hear directly from practitioners, and discuss the operational challenges shaping the next generation of manufacturing, supply chain, energy, infrastructure, and automation.

In this video, we discuss what the ARC Forum is, the role it plays within the broader ARC Advisory Group community, and how companies and individuals can become involved.

For Logistics Viewpoints readers, the Forum is particularly relevant because the boundaries between traditional supply chain technology and the broader industrial technology environment continue to disappear. AI, robotics, automation, connected operations, digital twins, autonomous systems, and intelligent infrastructure increasingly span both worlds.

The ARC Forum provides a place to understand those changes directly from the companies and practitioners implementing them.

Watch the video below to learn more about the Forum and how to get involved.

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Supply Chains Need an Execution Architecture, Not Another Intelligence Layer

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Supply chain technology has become extraordinarily good at producing information. Companies can forecast demand, monitor shipments, calculate inventory positions, estimate arrival times, detect supplier risks, optimize routes, and model alternatives with a level of sophistication that would have been difficult to imagine twenty years ago. Artificial intelligence is making those capabilities even stronger, but many organizations still encounter the same operational problem: they know something is going wrong before they actually do anything about it.

That gap deserves to be treated as an architectural problem. The earlier articles in this sequence described the coordination premium and the risk that functional AI agents optimize the function rather than the company. The next requirement is an execution architecture that defines how a signal becomes context, how context becomes a decision, how authority is granted, and how the chosen action actually changes the operation.

The Supply Chain Does Not Lack Alerts

The evolution of visibility illustrates the problem well. I have argued that supply chain visibility is evolving from tracking to intervention because knowing that a shipment is late has limited economic value if the organization cannot act early enough to change the outcome. Visibility becomes valuable when it supports a corrective action rather than simply producing a better description of the problem.

Yet the handoff from insight to action is frequently manual. An alert appears, an analyst investigates, someone emails another department, a spreadsheet is updated, an approval is requested, and an employee eventually enters a change in another application. AI can make the first two steps almost instantaneous while leaving the remaining workflow essentially untouched.

The Missing Architecture Is the Process Itself

Traditional enterprise architectures describe applications, databases, integration layers, interfaces, and infrastructure. Execution architecture asks a different set of questions: what event initiates action, what context is required, which alternatives are evaluated, who or what can authorize the choice, which systems must change, and how the outcome is verified. The process may cross ERP, TMS, WMS, planning, procurement, and customer systems without belonging to any one of them.

This is why supply chain software still struggles at the point of execution. Applications are typically excellent inside their functional boundaries, but operational problems ignore those boundaries. The evolution described in What CargoWise Signals About Intelligent Supply Chain Execution is one example of software moving toward more integrated decision and execution responsibilities. A supplier disruption can become an inventory problem, then a production problem, a transportation problem, a customer-service problem, and a financial problem within a few hours.

Five Layers of Execution

A useful execution architecture has five layers. The first is the signal, where a material event is detected; the second is context, where the organization assembles the information needed to understand business impact; the third is the decision, where alternatives are evaluated; the fourth is authority, where the system determines whether a person or machine can approve the choice; and the fifth is execution, where operating systems actually change.

The distinction matters because companies often automate one layer and assume they have transformed the process. A better alert does not fix slow approval, and an AI recommendation does not create value if an employee still has to enter the decision manually into three applications. The entire chain from signal to action has to be designed as one operating process.

Integration Is Necessary but Not Sufficient

I have previously described why supply chain modernization is increasingly an integration program, and newer standards such as Model Context Protocol may make it easier for agents to access data and tools across enterprise systems. These developments are foundational because an agent cannot coordinate what it cannot see or reach. Connectivity, however, does not tell the agent which action should occur, what sequence is required, or what authority applies.

Execution architecture adds that missing operating logic. It defines not merely whether systems can communicate but how the enterprise converts information into a controlled change in the physical supply chain. This is the layer where business rules, economics, workflows, governance, and software architecture converge.

The Platform Debate Looks Different from Here

The familiar best-of-breed versus platform debate also changes when viewed through execution. Platforms have a structural advantage when they reduce the friction of moving context and actions across functional domains, while best-of-breed systems retain an advantage when specialized capability materially improves the decision. The important test is no longer philosophical allegiance to one architecture; it is whether a cross-functional decision can be executed without the architecture becoming the bottleneck.

This is also why configurability matters. If every workflow change requires months of custom development, the software architecture will move more slowly than the operating environment. An execution architecture needs to evolve as thresholds, customer priorities, regulations, network conditions, and automation capabilities change.

AI Makes the Gap Impossible to Ignore

AI did not create the execution gap, but it makes the gap more visible. As I wrote in Industrial AI’s Next Challenge Is Not Intelligence. It Is Execution, faster analysis exposes the organizational latency that used to hide inside a long decision cycle. If a model produces a useful answer in thirty seconds and the company requires six hours to approve and implement it, the bottleneck has plainly moved.

Supply chain leaders should therefore map their most important decision pathways with the same discipline used to map physical processes. They should identify where signals originate, where context is assembled, where decisions wait, where authority slows the process, and how many systems must be touched before the operation changes. In many companies, the next technology requirement will not be another intelligence layer but an execution architecture capable of turning the intelligence they already possess into action.

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