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Ocean rates climb again even as fuel costs ease – June 23, 2026 Update

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Ocean rates climb again even as fuel costs ease – June 23, 2026 Update

Published: June 25, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 19%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 13%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 13%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 16%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 17%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices were level.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 2%.

Analysis

The US-Iran interim agreement appears to be driving a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even with Iran announcing a renewed closure following Israel and Hezbollah exchanges of fire.

Though still well below pre-war levels, Hormuz transits have increased since the announcement of the Memorandum of Understanding. As part of this week’s renewed negotiations, Iran and the US have opened a hotline between the two to avoid miscommunications regarding traffic through the Strait. But talks have also shown Iran intends to assert some control over the waterway as part of the settlement – a big shift from the pre-war status quo.

The renewed traffic comprises mostly tankers, and container carriers are likely to activate mostly feeder services instead of long haul port calls to the Gulf once transits do rebound and until confidence returns to the lane. The prospect of peace has driven CMA CGM to increase its Red Sea transits, which could signal more carriers will follow that lead at some point if negotiations progress.

The prospect of more stability as well as the fact of an increase in oil flows have already driven down crude prices, with some measures now only 5% higher than before the war. Bunker and jet fuel prices are also easing with bunker rates down 25% from their March highs and 12% compared just to the start of June, though prices remain about 40% higher than in February. Jet fuel prices are down more than 40% from their peak and are 20% higher than before the closure.

But even as fuel costs ease, container rates continue to climb as peaking demand from an early busy season is keeping vessels full at least into July. This development likewise means spot rates will start easing from the current or near term levels as demand decreases, regardless of what happens in the Strait.

The early start to peak season – driven by multiple factors including frontloading ahead of BAF increases, coming Section 122 tariff expirations and Section 301 introductions for transpacific shippers, and July manufacturer price hikes – has some observers expecting bookings to peak in June, which could mean carriers will find more resistance to July rate increases than they have to June price hikes so far.

For now though, prices are high and getting higher. Transpacific rates climbed 19% to the West Coast to more than $5,700/FEU, with daily prices past the $6k/FEU mark so far this week. Rates to the East Coast increased 13% to $7,400/FEU last week with daily rates now past $8,000/FEU – a mark already above last year’s peak season high. Some carriers have announced additional steep increases for July.

Asia – Europe rates grew 13% last week to $4,700/FEU and Asia – Mediterranean prices increased 16% to $6,300/FEU, both well above last year’s peak season highs but level so far this week. The recent increases pushed Mediterranean rates to about the announced GRI or PSS levels, while Europe prices are about $1k/FEU beneath the target set by several carriers.

Planned July increases have some carriers aspiring for Asia – Europe rates $3k/FEU higher than current levels and Mediterranean prices $1-$2k/FEU higher, with increases announced across an array of secondary lanes as well.

The sharp June rate gains show that even as the global fleet continues to grow, significant increases in demand and shipper urgency – currently helped along by a fuel price-adjusted elevated starting point, Red Sea diversions, and peak season congestion causing delays and likewise effectively reducing capacity – are still enough to push spot prices to very elevated levels, at least for a while.

But with rates on some lanes already below aspired-to levels, and frontloading implying an early end to the fairly sudden demand boom, the question remains how much higher prices will climb and for how long.

As noted, jet fuel prices have eased since the prospects of a reopened Hormuz have increased. So far though, air cargo rates have stayed level, though down from earlier highs on most lanes, including for China, South Asia and Southeast Asia cargo flows to Europe. Prices to N. America have nonetheless trended upward, possibly buoyed by last chance Amazon Prime Day demand.

The European Union will suspend its de minimis exemption on July 1st. Though many observers expected last year’s US rule change to drive a transpacific e-commerce exodus from the air, the big e-comm platforms mostly adjusted tactics, preserving e-comm volumes as a still major – if not as colossal – driver of air demand. Most experts, therefore, don’t expect the EU rule change to trigger a sharp drop in e-comm flows or air rates.

But the change will make the EU, in comparison, suddenly much less attractive to cross-border e-comm sellers than the nearby UK market, which will only change its de minimis rules in 2029. This looming disparity has some in the UK warning of a coming flood of low cost goods starting in July, and urging the government to expedite the policy shift.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The New Economics of Logistics Visibility

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Knowing that a shipment will arrive six hours late is information. Knowing it early enough to reschedule labor, protect a customer commitment, avoid detention, or change an inventory decision is economic value.

That distinction is becoming central to the logistics visibility market. The earlier argument that exceptions are becoming the real unit of work explains why visibility economics depend less on event volume than on whether the organization can convert important events into timely resolution.

The first era of visibility was largely about answering a basic question: Where is my shipment? The next era is about a harder question: What should I do because its state has changed?

Visibility Is Not the Outcome

Location and status data can be valuable, but they are intermediate products. A business does not earn a return because a dot moved across a map more accurately. The return appears when information changes an operational decision. A useful way to think about visibility is as a chain: signal -> interpretation -> decision -> intervention -> economic outcome. If any link is missing, much of the potential value disappears.

A Signal Has to Arrive Inside the Decision Window

Timing matters.

A delay discovered after the customer has already missed production is history. The same delay identified early enough to expedite an alternate shipment may be actionable. An ETA update received after warehouse labor has reported for a shift may have less value than the same update received while the schedule can still be changed.

This means visibility quality is not only about accuracy. It is about whether the signal arrives with enough lead time to support an intervention.

Not Every Exception Deserves Attention

As visibility improves, organizations often discover a new problem: too many exceptions. A network with thousands of shipments will always contain delays, deviations, missed scans, changing ETAs, and incomplete data. If every deviation creates an alert, planners become the bottleneck. The more important capability is prioritization.

Which late shipment threatens a high-value order? Which delay creates a stockout? Which container risks demurrage? Which arrival change will disrupt a dock schedule? Which event is likely to self-correct without intervention?

Visibility becomes intelligence when the system can distinguish operational consequence from mere deviation.

ETA Is a Decision Input

Estimated time of arrival is a good example of how the economics are changing. ETA was once primarily a customer-service or tracking metric. Increasingly it can influence warehouse scheduling, yard planning, labor, inventory, customer promises, and downstream transportation. That makes ETA a shared operating variable.

The value increases when the prediction is connected to the systems that can respond. A changing ETA that remains trapped in a visibility dashboard creates less value than one that can trigger a workflow or decision elsewhere.

Dwell, Detention, and Demurrage Make the Economics Visible

Some visibility use cases have direct financial consequences. Better awareness of arrival, dwell, free-time windows, and container status can help organizations manage detention and demurrage exposure. Yard visibility can reduce unnecessary trailer search and moves. Earlier exception detection can protect delivery appointments and reduce costly service recovery. These cases make an important point: visibility value is often realized outside the visibility platform itself.

More Visibility Can Increase Work

This is the uncomfortable side of digital transparency. If a company exposes ten times as many events but does not improve prioritization or workflow, it may create ten times as many things for people to inspect. The result can be an expensive monitoring layer sitting on top of the same manual decision process.

That is why visibility and autonomous exception management are converging. The system must increasingly help decide which events require action, assemble context, recommend a response, and automate routine resolution where appropriate.

Measure Intervention, Not Just Coverage

Visibility programs are often measured by tracking coverage, data completeness, ETA accuracy, or number of connected carriers. Those are necessary operating metrics, but they do not fully describe business value.

Organizations should also ask: How many material exceptions were identified early enough to act? How quickly were they resolved? How often did intervention protect service or avoid cost? How many alerts required no useful action? How much planner time was consumed per exception?

Those measures connect visibility to economics.

The Market Is Moving Toward Action

This shift has strategic implications for technology providers. Pure visibility is becoming less differentiated as location and event data become more widely available. The higher-value layer is interpretation and action: understanding what an event means to a specific operation and helping execute the appropriate response.

That pushes visibility platforms toward orchestration, workflow, decision intelligence, and AI. It also pushes TMS, WMS, and other execution systems toward richer external event awareness.

The Bottleneck Moves

For years, logistics organizations complained that they could not make better decisions because they could not see what was happening. Increasingly, they can see more.

The bottleneck is moving.

When a network can identify exceptions continuously, the constraint becomes the speed and quality with which the organization can interpret and resolve them. That is precisely the environment in which AI agents become interesting—not because logistics needs another conversational interface, but because it needs more capacity to do operational work.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Autonomous Exception Management Market Map
The Economics of Decision Latency
Previous in this series: Transportation Is Becoming Computational

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If your organization is assessing connected execution, orchestration, AI, observability, decision velocity, or selective autonomy, I would be glad to provide the complete client edition and discuss the implications for your logistics operating model and technology architecture.

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o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions

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Supply chain decision-making is difficult partly because the relevant information is distributed across products, locations, suppliers, orders, capacities, policies, and external events. A system may have access to all of those records and still struggle to understand the relationships among them quickly enough to support a consequential decision.

o9 Solutions addresses that problem through its Digital Brain architecture, including an enterprise knowledge graph and in-memory modeling designed to connect demand, supply, inventory, planning, and operating context. That semantic layer is important because it gives analytics and AI a structured representation of how supply chain entities relate to one another rather than treating the environment as a collection of independent tables and documents.

The company combines this architecture with integrated planning, optimization, scenario modeling, machine learning, and human oversight. The strategic direction is toward a continuous decision environment where changes can be interpreted quickly, alternatives can be modeled, and recommendations can be traced back to the assumptions, events, and constraints that produced them.

As with any broad planning and intelligence platform, the value depends on implementation quality. Knowledge models need strong data governance, entity resolution, process ownership, and clear decision rights. A sophisticated model of the supply chain is useful only if the organization can keep it current and use it consistently in real operating workflows.

o9 Solutions appears in the Logistics Viewpoints Supply Chain Decision Intelligence MarketMap and Autonomous Exception Management MarketMap. The two MarketMaps highlight the relationship between integrated decision intelligence and the faster exception-response capabilities now developing around it.

The post o9 Solutions Uses a Knowledge Graph to Connect Supply Chain Decisions appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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AI Will Not Transform the Supply Chain Until the Architecture Around It Catches Up

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Executive thesis. The model is becoming the least durable layer of the AI stack. Sustainable advantage will come from the operating architecture around AI: authoritative context, governed tools, permissions, observability, and connection to enterprise workflows.

The model is only one component

Supply chain AI discussions often begin with model capability: prediction accuracy, reasoning quality, computer vision performance, or the fluency of a generative system. Those capabilities matter, but operational value depends on everything around the model. The system still needs authoritative context, enterprise tools, permissions, workflow, observability, and a reliable path from recommendation to action.

Different AI patterns solve different problems

Prediction, optimization, generative AI, vision, and agents should not be treated as interchangeable technologies. Forecasting demand, selecting a route, extracting information from a document, interpreting an image, and executing a multi-step workflow require different evidence, control, and performance measures. A mature architecture starts with the decision or task and chooses the AI pattern that fits it.

Context is the operating fuel

An AI system can produce a plausible answer while using stale or incomplete operational context. In logistics, that can be dangerous because the truth may reside across orders, inventory, rates, carrier status, warehouse state, supplier records, and policy documents. Retrieval, master data, identity resolution, and system access therefore become part of the AI architecture, not secondary data-engineering concerns.

Tool access turns intelligence into consequence

The moment an AI system can create a shipment, change an order, contact a carrier, release inventory, or approve an exception, governance becomes an operational requirement. Tool permissions, financial limits, approval gates, idempotency, retries, and rollback are the mechanisms that separate an interesting demonstration from a dependable production workflow.

Measure workflow performance

A fluent response is not the right success metric for operational AI. Supply chain leaders should measure decision latency, manual context gathering, exception closure, override behavior, error recovery, tool failure, and the business outcome being improved. That measurement discipline also creates a rational basis for expanding autonomy as evidence accumulates.

The Logistics Viewpoints AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide separates the major AI patterns and connects them to data, tools, governance, workflow, observability, and ROI—the architecture required to move from model capability to operating value.

Executive implication

AI strategy should separate model selection from control architecture and measure value through workflow performance, decision quality, and operational outcomes.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. AI & Advanced Analytics connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

Download: AI in the Supply Chain — From Architecture to Execution
The New Architecture of Logistics

Go Deeper

Read the full AI in Logistics: Use Cases, Architecture, and Implementation Guide.

Explore the broader AI & Advanced Analytics domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

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