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Ocean rates level, but mid-month increases possible soon – June 16, 2026 Update

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Ocean rates level, but mid-month increases possible soon – June 16, 2026 Update

Published: June 16, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) stayed level.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices stayed level.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 3%.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 2%.

Analysis

The US and Iran are set to sign an interim peace deal at the end of the week which will include an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, possibly within thirty days, and will start the clock on a sixty-day window to arrive at a final deal. As the sides haven’t released the text of the agreement, there is significant uncertainty around the Memorandum of Understanding’s details and timeline for the reopening.

The war’s broadest impact on freight markets has been via upward pressure on fuel prices. The reopening could mean some near term easing of fuel costs for carriers. President Trump asserts that the Strait will be fully open by the time of the signing, but even if both blockades are lifted then, the consensus is that a full return of traffic will likely take months as the narrow passage is further narrowed by Iranian mines. It will take time to de-mine the waterway, with some countries who have committed to the de-mining process hesitant to join the effort until a final peace deal is in place, meaning ships will have to rely on the few established safe lanes in the interim.

Experts estimate it will take several weeks for daily transits to recover to half of the pre-war norm, and much longer, possibly six months, for oil flows to normalize. In addition to out of place tankers and damage to infrastructure, even once vessels exit, it takes about seven weeks for crude to arrive in the Far East, with an even longer timeline for availability of refined products like bunker and jet fuel first dependent on those crude shipments arriving. The fact that many countries will seek to prioritize replenishing strategic reserves could likewise mean a commercial supply rebound will take time and that downward pressure on oil prices and on fuel costs will be gradual.

For the container market, near-term easing fuel costs would reduce some of the upward pressure on rates that have kept prices higher year on year since the start of the war. But while reduced Emergency Fuel Surcharges will be relevant for spot shipments, large shippers with annual contracts will still be paying higher rates via Q3 BAFs even as fuel costs decline.

Once fuel prices do normalize though, we could expect freight rates to pick up where they left off before the war: downward pressure on prices from a growing fleet. And if the peace deal hastens a broad carrier return to the Red Sea, that downward pressure will be even stronger.

Given this drawn out timeline for oil and fuel recovery however, this easing will come too late to make much of a difference for container rates this peak season. And in any case, spiking container rates at the moment are mostly being driven by peak season demand, not oil prices.

Spot prices on the major lanes were level last week, maintaining the sharp – $1k/FEU or more – GRI and PSS increases that carriers introduced to start the month. Reports that vessels are fully booked through the end of the month and that carriers are rolling containers and reducing allocations make it likely that mid-month increases will take too, with Asia – Europe daily rates already climbing about 10% this week.

Carriers have announced mid-month increases ranging from $1,000/FEU to $2,000/FEU above current levels for Asia – Europe lanes, with additional increases as much as $2,000/FEU higher than anticipated mid-June levels planned for the start of July. Likewise, CMA CGM has reportedly announced a $4,000/FEU PSS for all transpacific containers starting July 10th. And as carriers shift capacity to these lanes where demand is surging, rates are climbing on secondary lanes as vessels are moved away.

The early start to peak season – driven partially by frontloading ahead of BAF increases, tariffs, and coming manufacturer price hikes – has some observers expecting bookings to peak in June, which could mean carriers will find more resistance to July rate increases than they have to June price hikes so far.

Air cargo capacity and volumes continue to recover from the sharp March war-related deficit, with reports that Gulf carriers have restored capacity to about 70% of pre-war levels. But the remaining 30% gap, as well as non-Gulf carriers still mostly avoiding the Middle East, mean that the industry hasn’t normalized yet.

In addition to the lingering capacity slump, elevated jet fuel prices are also contributing to air cargo rates that continue to face upward pressure. Jet fuel prices are about 40% above pre-war levels though they have come down by about 35% from the war-period high reached in April, and some carriers are reducing Emergency Fuel Surcharges as a result.

The Freightos Air Index global benchmark closed last week level with the past two weeks and down 10% from its year high set in May, but still 30% higher year on year and relative to just before the war. Rates on the major lanes are showing similar trends.

China – N. America rates were level at $6.20/kg last week, a price 15% down from a peak in March but 17% higher year on year. China – Europe rates ticked up 3% to $4.62/kg, down 12% from their wartime peak, but still 30% higher than late February and 21% higher than last year. S. Asia prices are at about $4.50/kg to Europe and $3.17/kg to the Middle East, with Europe rates down 12% from their peak but up 50% year on year and Middle East prices 70% higher than a year ago but down 25% from their peak as Gulf capacity recovers.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Automated Storage & Retrieval Systems — Orlando

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Warehouse automation is moving quickly from a specialized investment to a core component of modern distribution strategy. Automated storage and retrieval systems, or AS/RS, are increasingly central to that transition, helping companies increase storage density, improve throughput, reduce manual travel, and make better use of increasingly expensive warehouse space.

In this Logistics Viewpoints video, recorded in Orlando, we discuss the evolution of automated storage and retrieval systems and what these technologies mean for warehouse and distribution operations.

The conversation looks beyond the equipment itself. As warehouses become more automated, companies increasingly need to think about how storage, material movement, software, labor, and broader fulfillment processes operate as an integrated system.

For supply chain leaders evaluating warehouse automation, AS/RS is becoming part of a much larger question: what should the warehouse of the next decade look like, and where does automation create the greatest operational value?

Watch the full Logistics Viewpoints discussion below.

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ARC Forum – What Is the Forum and How Do I Get Involved?

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The ARC Industry Forum brings together executives, technology suppliers, manufacturers, infrastructure operators, analysts, and other industry leaders to examine how technology is changing industrial operations.

But the Forum is more than a conference. It is an opportunity for the industrial technology community to compare strategies, understand emerging technologies, hear directly from practitioners, and discuss the operational challenges shaping the next generation of manufacturing, supply chain, energy, infrastructure, and automation.

In this video, we discuss what the ARC Forum is, the role it plays within the broader ARC Advisory Group community, and how companies and individuals can become involved.

For Logistics Viewpoints readers, the Forum is particularly relevant because the boundaries between traditional supply chain technology and the broader industrial technology environment continue to disappear. AI, robotics, automation, connected operations, digital twins, autonomous systems, and intelligent infrastructure increasingly span both worlds.

The ARC Forum provides a place to understand those changes directly from the companies and practitioners implementing them.

Watch the video below to learn more about the Forum and how to get involved.

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Supply Chains Need an Execution Architecture, Not Another Intelligence Layer

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Supply chain technology has become extraordinarily good at producing information. Companies can forecast demand, monitor shipments, calculate inventory positions, estimate arrival times, detect supplier risks, optimize routes, and model alternatives with a level of sophistication that would have been difficult to imagine twenty years ago. Artificial intelligence is making those capabilities even stronger, but many organizations still encounter the same operational problem: they know something is going wrong before they actually do anything about it.

That gap deserves to be treated as an architectural problem. The earlier articles in this sequence described the coordination premium and the risk that functional AI agents optimize the function rather than the company. The next requirement is an execution architecture that defines how a signal becomes context, how context becomes a decision, how authority is granted, and how the chosen action actually changes the operation.

The Supply Chain Does Not Lack Alerts

The evolution of visibility illustrates the problem well. I have argued that supply chain visibility is evolving from tracking to intervention because knowing that a shipment is late has limited economic value if the organization cannot act early enough to change the outcome. Visibility becomes valuable when it supports a corrective action rather than simply producing a better description of the problem.

Yet the handoff from insight to action is frequently manual. An alert appears, an analyst investigates, someone emails another department, a spreadsheet is updated, an approval is requested, and an employee eventually enters a change in another application. AI can make the first two steps almost instantaneous while leaving the remaining workflow essentially untouched.

The Missing Architecture Is the Process Itself

Traditional enterprise architectures describe applications, databases, integration layers, interfaces, and infrastructure. Execution architecture asks a different set of questions: what event initiates action, what context is required, which alternatives are evaluated, who or what can authorize the choice, which systems must change, and how the outcome is verified. The process may cross ERP, TMS, WMS, planning, procurement, and customer systems without belonging to any one of them.

This is why supply chain software still struggles at the point of execution. Applications are typically excellent inside their functional boundaries, but operational problems ignore those boundaries. The evolution described in What CargoWise Signals About Intelligent Supply Chain Execution is one example of software moving toward more integrated decision and execution responsibilities. A supplier disruption can become an inventory problem, then a production problem, a transportation problem, a customer-service problem, and a financial problem within a few hours.

Five Layers of Execution

A useful execution architecture has five layers. The first is the signal, where a material event is detected; the second is context, where the organization assembles the information needed to understand business impact; the third is the decision, where alternatives are evaluated; the fourth is authority, where the system determines whether a person or machine can approve the choice; and the fifth is execution, where operating systems actually change.

The distinction matters because companies often automate one layer and assume they have transformed the process. A better alert does not fix slow approval, and an AI recommendation does not create value if an employee still has to enter the decision manually into three applications. The entire chain from signal to action has to be designed as one operating process.

Integration Is Necessary but Not Sufficient

I have previously described why supply chain modernization is increasingly an integration program, and newer standards such as Model Context Protocol may make it easier for agents to access data and tools across enterprise systems. These developments are foundational because an agent cannot coordinate what it cannot see or reach. Connectivity, however, does not tell the agent which action should occur, what sequence is required, or what authority applies.

Execution architecture adds that missing operating logic. It defines not merely whether systems can communicate but how the enterprise converts information into a controlled change in the physical supply chain. This is the layer where business rules, economics, workflows, governance, and software architecture converge.

The Platform Debate Looks Different from Here

The familiar best-of-breed versus platform debate also changes when viewed through execution. Platforms have a structural advantage when they reduce the friction of moving context and actions across functional domains, while best-of-breed systems retain an advantage when specialized capability materially improves the decision. The important test is no longer philosophical allegiance to one architecture; it is whether a cross-functional decision can be executed without the architecture becoming the bottleneck.

This is also why configurability matters. If every workflow change requires months of custom development, the software architecture will move more slowly than the operating environment. An execution architecture needs to evolve as thresholds, customer priorities, regulations, network conditions, and automation capabilities change.

AI Makes the Gap Impossible to Ignore

AI did not create the execution gap, but it makes the gap more visible. As I wrote in Industrial AI’s Next Challenge Is Not Intelligence. It Is Execution, faster analysis exposes the organizational latency that used to hide inside a long decision cycle. If a model produces a useful answer in thirty seconds and the company requires six hours to approve and implement it, the bottleneck has plainly moved.

Supply chain leaders should therefore map their most important decision pathways with the same discipline used to map physical processes. They should identify where signals originate, where context is assembled, where decisions wait, where authority slows the process, and how many systems must be touched before the operation changes. In many companies, the next technology requirement will not be another intelligence layer but an execution architecture capable of turning the intelligence they already possess into action.

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