Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 11%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 5%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 2%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) decreased 2%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 16%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices stayed level.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 3%.

Analysis

We are approaching six weeks since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and only a few vessels per day are being allowed through. Ships that are transiting are doing so via coordination with Iran and possibly payments ahead of time, which this week included a CMA CGM container vessel, the first from one of the major European carriers. 

Besides containers moving to or from the Gulf states, ocean operations remain stable across the market, with rising fuel costs and availability the main factors impacting other lanes.

Ocean rates would typically be flat or easing this time of year in the soft demand period between Lunar New Year and peak season. But despite weak demand, transpacific container rates to the West Coast have climbed $700/FEU and nearly 40% since just before the war to more than $2,400/FEU, with Asia – N. Europe rates up 20% and $500/FEU to $2,900/FEU. 

Earlier in the year, expectations were that carriers – facing a growing fleet and overcapacity – would face a significant challenge in keeping rates above last year’s levels. Indeed, up until the start of the war in Iran average transpacific spot prices were more than 50% lower than in January and February 2025,  and Asia – Europe rates were 30% down year on year.

But that margin has steadily narrowed since the end of February, with rates surpassing last year’s prices in the last couple weeks, and current levels 8% stronger than a year ago for Asia – US West Coast and 22% higher for Asia – Europe.

At the same time, the downward pressure on rates from current supply-demand dynamics may be limiting the degree to which fuel surcharges and various other fees and GRIs are succeeding to push rates up, with reports of carrier discounts as well as benchmark levels well below announced FAKs.  

Asia – Mediterranean prices of $3,800/FEU are up more than 7% and $260/FEU compared to the end of February, but have retreated from a high of $4,300/FEU in mid-March.  Carriers nonetheless continue to announce upcoming price hikes, though the US FMC continues to deny carrier requests to waive the waiting period for new fees.

In addition to the cost of fuel, bunker availability is also a challenge. Only a month’s worth of fuel stocks remain in Singapore – the industry’s largest refueling hub – though Rotterdam, the second largest, remains supplied. If the war stretches on, carriers could start to slow steam or blank sailings to reduce fuel consumption, which could put additional upward pressure on rates. 

Fuel availability is also becoming an issue in some regions for air cargo. Vietnam has canceled some domestic flights to conserve jet fuel, with reports of refueling restrictions in S. Korea and the Philippines as well. 

Gulf carriers continue their capacity recoveries – with DHL estimating Emirates SkyCargo is back to 60% of its normal schedule, Etihad Airways up to 40% and Qatar Airways Cargo at 20% – but the remaining supply deficit, the volume shifts to alternate East-West routes, and rising jet fuel costs are keeping rates elevated. 

Freightos Air Index data show S. Asia – Europe rates 62% higher than before the war at $4.17/kg, SEA – Europe prices up 33% to $4.50/kg and Europe – Middle East rates doubled to $3.67/kg. Even so, rates have mostly leveled off or even eased slightly on most of these lanes following initial weeks of sharp climbs, with China – Europe prices of $4.67/kg 7% lower than two weeks ago, SEA – Europe rates down 10% and S. Asia – Europe prices about even – possibly reflecting the gradual capacity shifts and recovery.o.