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Uncertainty surges again as SCOTUS decides and Trump responds – February 24, 2026 Update

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Uncertainty surges again as SCOTUS decides and Trump responds – February 24, 2026 Update

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Published: February 24, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) increased 2%.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 15%.

China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 9%.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices stayed level.

Analysis

The much-anticipated US Supreme Court decision arrived on Friday, striking down the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enact tariffs. The president relied on IEEPA for most of last year’s tariffs, including all the country-specific tariffs and the fentanyl-related duties imposed on China, Mexico and Canada.

The move triggered a rapid response from the White House, making good on promises to reinstate IEEPA tariffs by other means in the event of a loss. Trump signed an executive order later that day introducing a 10% global tariff based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, reframing the duty as addressing a balance of payments problem. The president said on social media that he will raise the tariff to 15%, and the administration is reportedly working on an amended order, but the law went into effect Tuesday at 10%, and is valid until late July.

The ruling keeps de minimis suspended, and leaves Section 232 sectoral tariffs, and Section 301 tariffs on specific trading partners – used in 2018 for duties specific to China – intact too, but along with the long list of previous exemptions to the IEEPA tariffs. The president and other officials stated this week that they will use other means – like 232 and 301 – to restore tariffs before Section 122 expires, though these channels typically take months as they require federal agency investigations before the president can introduce duties.

The White House already has several Section 232 probes underway and is now reportedly considering opening more. And in addition to reviewing China’s compliance to the terms of its deal with the US during Trump’s first administration, it may also have opened additional China-focused 301 investigations.

The US based the many trade agreements it negotiated in the past year largely on IEEPA tariffs, raising questions as to the deals’ validity and how various trade partners will react. The administration says the US intends to honor these agreements and Trump has threatened counterparts who do otherwise. And while some countries have so far said they will stick to the deals, some high profile partners like the European Union see a 15% blanket duty as a breach of agreed tariff levels for some goods, and have paused steps to implement the agreement until they can receive clarity.

All-in-all the shift to a global 15% tariff mostly preserves the IEEPA trade barriers: Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the change reduces the overall effective US tariff rate by only two percentage points, with impacts varying by country – a five percentage point reduction for China and Vietnam, no change for the EU baseline, a five-point increase for the UK, and the most significant reduction for Brazil (down from 40%). Overall effective tariffs on China remain around 40% due to pre-existing Section 301 duties.

So while in terms of tariff levels not too much has changed for the near term – and as of now the US appears intent on restoring and maintaining tariffs after Section 122 expires too – the more significant implication may be geopolitical.

Trump relied on IEEPA during this administration because of its speed — it allowed him to credibly threaten immediate tariffs across a wide range of, often non-trade-related, issues, including the recent Greenland drama. With that leverage gone, though we’re still likely to see Trump threaten tariffs that could ultimately materialize, the pace of US trade policy changes, and the frequency of disruptions Trump has caused for freight markets over the past year, could slow significantly.

For US shippers, the immediate question – in addition to the many questions around potential refunds – is whether or not these developments justify frontloading before the July deadline.

Where the 15% rate represents a meaningful reduction — like for Brazil — we may see a quick increase in volumes. And a five-percentage point reduction for tariffs on goods out of China and Vietnam may be enough to spur frontloading by some shippers, meaning we may see some signs of increased demand as soon as manufacturing restarts post-Lunar New Year in a week or so.

But, for many shippers, the relatively modest tariff reduction for most countries including China and Vietnam may not be enough to trigger a significant pull forward. And with the White House under cost of living political pressure; facing some open Republican opposition to tariffs; and considering expanding its list of tariff exceptions – some importers may suspect that Trump will hesitate to extend tariffs at the end of July as midterm elections loom. These factors could also keep many importers from frontloading in hopes that the tariff landscape shifts in their favor.

So, we’ll probably see somewhat stronger US import volumes in the coming months, and possibly an earlier start to peak season, than we otherwise would have, but we may not see the levels of frontloading that tariff threats spurred last year.

As container rates won’t reflect any, or even a surge of, potential frontloading until after the LNY period, transpacific rates – along with Asia – Europe prices for the same reason – were about stable last week and down from their pre-LNY highs. As rates are likely to rebound on the typical post-LNY backlog bump for all these lanes, it may initially not be possible to attribute rate increases solely to trade war developments.

Carriers have prevented rates from sliding too far over the past weeks by increasing blanked sailings on these lanes, though they will restore capacity if demand materializes post the holiday. With the current demand lull, the stop and start weather disruptions in N. Europe and the resulting congestion has not pushed rates up. This week’s major blizzard in the northeastern US also shut ports, roads and airports temporarily, but may likewise not be felt in rate levels despite likely delays and congestion.

In other ocean news, some ZIM vessels in Israel are facing port labor disruptions from union workers opposed to the planned sale to Hapag-Lloyd. And Maersk and MSC have officially taken over operations at the Panama Canal ports previously run by HK Hutchinson, despite Hutchinson’s opposition.

Finally, for air cargo, the tariff turmoil could, like for ocean freight, be reflected in some increase in US bound volumes in the coming months. But with de minimis still suspended, we’re unlikely to see a big or sudden volume surge for air cargo either. As ex-Asia freight is in its LNY lull, China – US rates dipped by 15% and prices to Europe eased almost 10% last week.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The OSI Model and AI in the Supply Chain: Why Layered Architecture Still Matters

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AI in the supply chain is often approached as an application problem. In practice, it is more often an architectural one. The OSI model offers a useful lens for understanding why.

The Architecture Problem Behind AI in Supply Chains

Most discussions about AI in the supply chain begin at the top of the stack. They focus on copilots, models, dashboards, and use cases such as forecasting, routing, and risk detection. Those applications matter, but they are not the starting point.

The more important issue is the architecture underneath them.

This is where the OSI model becomes a useful reference point. Not because supply chains operate like communications networks in any literal sense, but because the OSI model solved a similar structural problem. It separated complexity into layers and clarified how those layers interact. That same discipline is becoming increasingly relevant as AI moves deeper into logistics and supply chain operations.

AI in the Supply Chain Is Best Understood as a Layered System

The most practical way to think about AI in the supply chain is as a layered system.

At the foundation is the data layer. This includes ERP, TMS, WMS, IoT signals, supplier feeds, and external data sources. If this layer is fragmented or inconsistent, the layers above it will underperform. That aligns directly with the data harmonization requirement described in ARC research. AI depends on clean, linked, and current data, and advanced systems are only as effective as the data they operate on .

Above that is the communication layer. In traditional systems, applications exchange information through rigid integrations, manual handoffs, and batch processes. In more advanced environments, data and decisions move through APIs, event streams, and increasingly through agent-to-agent coordination. ARC’s framework describes A2A as a way for autonomous software agents to interact directly, share data, assess options, and execute decisions across the supply chain . That matters because modern supply chains do not just need better analytics. They need faster coordination across functions.

Context Is the Missing Layer in Many AI Deployments

The next layer is context. This is where many AI initiatives begin to weaken. Systems may generate plausible recommendations, but without memory of prior events, supplier history, operational constraints, or previous failures, they remain limited. The white paper describes the Model Context Protocol as a way to embed memory, identity, and continuity into AI systems so they can retain operating context over time and carry that context across workflows . In supply chain settings, that kind of continuity is important because decisions are rarely isolated. They are part of a sequence.

Reasoning Must Reflect the Networked Nature of Supply Chains

Then comes the reasoning layer. This is where retrieval-augmented generation and graph-based reasoning become useful. RAG allows systems to retrieve current, domain-specific information before generating an answer. Graph RAG extends that by reasoning across interconnected entities and dependencies. ARC’s analysis makes the point clearly: supply chains are networks, not lists, and graph structures help AI navigate those interdependencies more effectively .

This is one of the more important distinctions in enterprise AI. A system that can retrieve a policy document is useful. A system that can understand how a supplier, a port, an order, and a downstream constraint relate to one another is more operationally relevant.

Why Many AI Initiatives Stall

At the top is the application layer, the part users actually see. This includes control towers, planning workbenches, copilots, and workflow assistants. Most companies start here. That is understandable, because this is the visible part of the stack. It is also why many AI initiatives produce narrow results. The application may improve, but the lower layers remain weak.

That is the main lesson the OSI analogy helps clarify. AI in the supply chain should not be treated primarily as a front-end feature. It is better understood as a layered architecture that depends on data quality, system interoperability, context retention, and network-aware reasoning.

This also helps explain why some AI deployments perform well in demonstrations but struggle in operations. The model itself may be capable, but the environment around it may not be ready. Data may not be harmonized. Systems may not communicate cleanly. Context may not persist. Knowledge retrieval may not be grounded in current enterprise information. In those cases, the problem is not that AI has limited potential. The problem is that the stack is incomplete.

The ARC Framework Points to a More Durable Model

The ARC framework points toward a more grounded view. A2A supports coordination between systems. MCP supports continuity across time and decisions. RAG supports access to relevant knowledge. Graph RAG supports reasoning across a networked operating environment. Together, these are not just features. They are components of an emerging architecture for supply chain intelligence.

What This Means for Supply Chain Leaders

For supply chain leaders, the implication is practical. AI strategy should begin with the question, “What layers need to be in place for these systems to work reliably at scale?” That shifts the focus away from isolated pilots and toward a more durable operating model.

In practical terms, that means improving data harmonization before expanding model deployment. It means designing for system-to-system coordination rather than relying only on dashboards and alerts. It means treating context as infrastructure rather than as a convenience feature. And it means building toward reasoning systems that reflect the networked nature of the supply chain itself.

Bottom Line

The OSI model is not a blueprint for AI in logistics. But it remains a useful reminder that complex systems tend to perform better when their layers are clearly defined and properly integrated.

That is becoming true of AI in the supply chain as well.

The companies that recognize this early are more likely to build systems that support better coordination, more consistent decision-making, and more useful intelligence across the network. The companies that do not may continue to add AI applications at the surface while leaving the underlying architecture unresolved.

The post The OSI Model and AI in the Supply Chain: Why Layered Architecture Still Matters appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Anthropic’s Mythos Raises the Stakes for Software Security

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Anthropic’s decision to restrict access to Mythos is more than a product decision. It suggests that frontier AI is moving into a more serious class of cybersecurity capability, with implications for software vendors, critical infrastructure, and the digital systems that support modern supply chains.

Anthropic’s latest announcement deserves attention well beyond the AI market.

The company says its new Claude Mythos Preview model has identified thousands of previously unknown software vulnerabilities across major operating systems, browsers, and other widely used software environments. But the more important point is not the claim itself. It is the release strategy. Anthropic did not make the model broadly available. It placed Mythos inside a controlled early-access program and limited access to a select group of major technology and security organizations.

That tells you something.

This is not being positioned as another general-purpose model that happens to be good at security work. Anthropic is treating Mythos as a system with enough cyber capability, and enough dual-use risk, to justify a restricted rollout. That is a notable change in posture.

For supply chain and logistics leaders, the relevance is not hard to see. Modern supply chains now depend on a thick software layer: ERP platforms, transportation systems, warehouse systems, visibility tools, APIs, cloud infrastructure, industrial software, and partner integrations. If frontier AI materially improves the speed and scale at which vulnerabilities can be found, then this is not just a cybersecurity story. It is an operations story.

A compromised transportation platform is not merely an IT issue. A weakness in a warehouse execution environment is not just a software problem. These failures can disrupt planning, fulfillment, supplier coordination, inventory visibility, and customer service. In a software-mediated supply chain, cyber weakness increasingly becomes operational weakness.

That is the real significance here.

Over the last year, much of the AI discussion has centered on productivity. Better copilots. Faster coding. More automation. Mythos is a reminder that the same capability gains can cut the other way too. A model that is better at reasoning through code and complex systems may also be better at finding weaknesses, chaining exploits, and shortening the gap between vulnerability discovery and exploitation.

That does not mean a disaster scenario is around the corner. But it does mean the discussion is changing.

There is also a second issue in Anthropic’s release strategy. Early access creates asymmetry. The organizations that get access to these tools first will be in a better position to harden their environments than those that do not. Large platform vendors and elite security firms are more likely to absorb this shift quickly. Smaller software providers and companies with less security depth may not.

That matters commercially as well as technically.

In a more AI-intensive security environment, resilience becomes a more visible part of product value. Customers will still care about features, workflow, and ROI. But they will also care, more directly, about whether a vendor can secure its software stack in an environment where advanced models may be able to surface weaknesses faster than traditional testing methods ever could. For some vendors, that will strengthen their position. For others, it may expose how thin their defenses really are.

There is also a governance signal here. A leading AI company has decided that broad release is not the responsible first step for this class of capability. Whether that becomes standard practice or not, it marks a threshold. It suggests that at least some frontier model capabilities now carry enough cybersecurity weight to influence how they are released and who gets access first.

Enterprise technology leaders should pay attention to that.

They should also take the broader lesson. Security cannot sit on the edge of the AI agenda. It has to move closer to the center of the operating model. That means tighter software supply chain governance, faster patching cycles, better dependency visibility, stronger segmentation of critical systems, and more disciplined red-teaming. It also means recognizing that cyber resilience is now part of business resilience.

There is a related point here. If models like Mythos increase uncertainty around software security, vendors will face a higher burden to prove resilience. If vulnerability discovery is getting faster and cheaper, then older assumptions about defensibility, testing depth, and incumbent safety become less comfortable. That pressure will not fall evenly. Firms with strong engineering depth and security discipline are more likely to absorb it. Others may find that the market becomes less forgiving.

For supply chain leaders, the takeaway is straightforward. As AI becomes more deeply embedded in planning, logistics, and execution systems, the integrity of the software environment becomes more central to performance. If frontier models accelerate vulnerability discovery, the burden on both vendors and enterprises to secure those environments rises with it.

Mythos matters not because it proves the worst case. It matters because it shows where the curve is going.

A major AI developer has now made clear that frontier AI is moving into territory where the cybersecurity implications are serious enough to shape release strategy and access controls. That is a meaningful development. Supply chain and technology leaders should treat it that way.

The post Anthropic’s Mythos Raises the Stakes for Software Security appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Autonomous Trucking Is Fragmenting Into Distinct Market Entry Models

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Autonomous trucking is no longer a single category defined by technical ambition. It is fragmenting into distinct market entry models, each with different paths to commercialization, risk profiles, and timelines for impact on freight execution.

A Market No Longer Defined by One End State

Autonomous trucking is no longer a single race to full driverless operation. It is fragmenting into distinct entry models, each addressing a different part of the freight problem with different timelines, risk profiles, and economic logic.

For several years, the category was framed as a single end state: driverless trucks operating broadly across long-haul freight networks.

That framing no longer fits the market as it is developing.

What is emerging instead is a set of entry models, each aimed at a different operational problem. These models are not progressing on the same timeline, and they are not constrained by the same variables. For supply chain and logistics executives, that distinction matters more than tracking broad claims about autonomy.

This pattern is common in industrial technology. New capabilities rarely enter at the most complex point in the system. They enter where variability is manageable, the economics are clearer, and operational value can be demonstrated sooner.

Long-Haul Autonomy Remains the Full-Stack Ambition

The most visible model remains long-haul autonomous trucking. This is the original vision: driverless trucks moving across highway networks, reducing labor constraints and improving asset utilization.

The opportunity is substantial, but so are the requirements. These systems must operate safely at highway speed, handle weather and traffic variation, and meet a more demanding regulatory and operational standard than narrower autonomy use cases.

Companies such as Aurora, Kodiak, and Torc Robotics are pursuing this path with increasing focus on defined freight corridors and structured deployment plans. Rather than attempting broad geographic coverage too early, these companies are concentrating on lanes where conditions can be better controlled and performance can be measured with more discipline. Other entrants such as Waabi, Plus, and a range of OEM and infrastructure partners are advancing similar models across different segments of the market.

Middle-Mile Autonomy Offers a Faster Commercial Path

A second model has emerged with a different profile: middle-mile autonomy.

Instead of solving for open-ended highway networks, this approach focuses on repeatable routes between fixed nodes such as distribution centers, stores, and cross-dock facilities. The operating environment is still demanding, but the variability is lower and the economic case can be easier to establish.

Gatik is the clearest example of this model. Its approach reflects a practical reality in freight automation: autonomy does not need to solve the hardest problem first to create value. In many supply chains, middle-mile freight is frequent, predictable, and costly enough that even partial automation can improve network performance. This makes middle-mile autonomy one of the more credible early commercial entry points.

Yard and Terminal Autonomy Benefit From Bounded Environments

A third model is taking shape in yards, terminals, and other bounded environments.

Here, the domain is tighter, speeds are lower, and routes are more repetitive. That reduces deployment complexity and creates a more practical setting for automation to mature.

Outrider is an example of how this strategy is developing. Yard operations are often overlooked in broader autonomy discussions, but they matter. Delays at this stage affect linehaul schedules, dock utilization, and downstream fulfillment performance. As a result, yard autonomy may scale earlier than more ambitious highway programs, not because it is more important, but because it is operationally easier to implement.

Hybrid and Teleoperated Models Create a Bridge

Between fully manual operations and fully autonomous systems, hybrid models are also emerging.

These combine onboard automation with remote human intervention, allowing systems to handle routine tasks while escalating exceptions when needed. This approach lowers deployment risk and gives operators a way to build confidence without requiring immediate full autonomy in all conditions.

FERNRIDE reflects this bridging strategy. Its relevance is not just technical. It points to a broader truth about the category: the path to autonomy is likely to be incremental in many freight environments. Hybrid models can help carriers and shippers introduce automation in a way that fits operational reality rather than forcing a binary shift from manual to driverless.

OEM Integration May Determine Who Scales

Another important path is OEM-integrated autonomy.

In this model, autonomous capabilities are built into commercial vehicle platforms through close alignment with truck manufacturers and industrial partners. This matters because scaling freight autonomy is not only a software challenge. It is also a manufacturing, maintenance, service, and support challenge.

That is why partnerships involving companies such as Plus, Daimler Truck, Volvo Autonomous Solutions, and other OEM-linked players deserve attention. Industrialization will play a major role in determining which autonomy programs remain pilot-stage efforts and which ones become durable components of freight networks.

What This Fragmentation Means

Taken together, these entry models point to a broader conclusion. Autonomous trucking is not arriving as a single unified capability. It is entering the market through multiple constrained domains, each built around a different balance of technical feasibility, operational complexity, and economic return.

That fragmentation is a sign of market maturation. The industry is moving away from generalized ambition and toward deployment strategies grounded in specific use cases. Long-haul autonomy targets the largest long-term opportunity. Middle-mile autonomy prioritizes repeatability and faster commercialization. Yard autonomy benefits from bounded environments. Hybrid models provide a bridge. OEM-integrated approaches provide the industrial foundation needed for scale.

What Supply Chain Leaders Should Watch

For supply chain leaders, the practical question is no longer whether autonomous trucking will arrive. It is where it will enter the network first, under what operating model, and with what operational implications.

In some cases, the answer will be a middle-mile loop between fixed facilities. In others, it will be yard movements, teleoperated support, or corridor-based long-haul deployment.

The larger point is architectural. These systems will not create value in isolation. They depend on data, orchestration, and coordination across the broader freight technology stack. In that sense, autonomous trucking is one more example of the broader shift toward connected, intelligent supply chain execution described in ARC’s recent work on AI architecture in logistics.

Where Tesla Fits

Tesla is better treated as an adjacent company to watch rather than a central example. The Tesla Semi is relevant to the future of freight equipment, but Tesla’s current positioning emphasizes electrification and supervised driver-assistance rather than a clearly defined autonomous freight deployment model.

Closing Perspective

Autonomous trucking will not arrive all at once. It will enter the supply chain through specific lanes, nodes, and operating models where the economics and constraints align.

The competitive advantage will not come from adopting autonomy broadly, but from understanding where it fits first and integrating it into the network ahead of competitors. That is where the category becomes operational, and where it begins to matter.

The post Autonomous Trucking Is Fragmenting Into Distinct Market Entry Models appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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