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Ocean rates up pre-LNY; geopolitics driving (more) uncertainty – January 13, 2026 Update

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Ocean rates up pre-LNY; geopolitics driving (more) uncertainty – January 13, 2026 Update

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Published: January 13, 2026

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 5% to $2,757/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 7% to $4,033/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $2,978/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices(FBX13 Weekly) stayed level at $4,851/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

China – N. America weekly prices decreased 4% to $5.91/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 6% to $3.64/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $2.10/kg.

Analysis

Asia – Europe container rates remained steady but elevated last week – at about $3,000/FEU to Europe and $4,850/FEU to the Mediterranean – at levels last reached during the summer peak season as pre-Lunar New Year demand is now supporting the start of the year GRIs and carriers add capacity to service rising volumes.

This seasonal demand bump started earlier than usual and so may already be at about its peak as daily rates this week cool slightly. Some carriers have nonetheless announced mid-month GRIs aiming at $4k/FEU for Europe and more than $5,500/FEU for Mediterranean routes. The recent winter weather in Europe has caused disruptions at some key ports, which could help support rate levels.

Rates on the transpacific have been on the rise since mid-December and continued to climb about 5% last week. Prices so far this week have remained stable at about $2,750/FEU to the West Coast and $4,000/FEU to the East Coast, though some forwarders report that carriers are already starting to offer discounts as space remains available.

The current rate bumps to North America would also be earlier than normal for pre-LNY, but are in line with the latest National Retail Federation US ocean import projections. The report estimates January volumes will increase 6% compared to December for the first month-on-month increase since July, though these volumes would be 5% lower than last January, with annual deficits expected through April. The NRF’s January report however, projects stronger 2026 volumes than its report from a month ago did, suggesting importers may be getting slightly more optimistic about post-holiday restocking strength.

In geopolitical developments, the US Supreme Court has until the end of June to issue a ruling on the legality of IEEPA tariffs, though there is speculation that a decision could come as soon as tomorrow. It seems likely that SCOTUS will rule against the administration. Such a decision would raise significant question marks regarding whether or how quickly the White House might move to restore tariffs by other means, and what the decision will mean for tariff refunds.

The administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs on China were set at their current level until November of this year as part of the China-US deescalation back in November. Amid the turmoil in Iran though, President Trump released a statement on social media, though no executive order has been issued, saying 25% tariffs are in effect for any country that trades with Iran. If this move becomes law it could apply to China – Iran’s largest trading partner – and risk disrupting the China-US trade status quo.

The unrest in Iran could have other implications for freight as well. Iran has threatened to respond to a US attack with actions against US shipping interests. These steps could include closing the Strait of Hormuz. While closing the passage would be disruptive to oil flows, only 2% – 3% of global container volumes, according to Container Trade Statistics, transit the Strait, so disruptions to the container market would mostly be felt locally.

A closure would cut off access to Dubai’s Port of Jebel Ali, a major transhipment hub between the Far East and points to the west, especially Europe, with a share moving from ocean to air in Dubai. Tranship volumes would need to be shifted elsewhere, possibly to South Asian hubs, which could cause some congestion and higher freight rates, but would not represent a major disruption to the overall container market. If protests do topple the regime, leaving the Houthis without Iranian support, the collapse could hasten a container traffic return to the Red Sea, where carriers like Maersk continue to test the waters.

Last week’s storms and cold in Europe disrupted flights along with container ports, though operations are recovering this week. Air rates continue to cool post the December peak on the transpacific, with Freightos Air Index China – US prices below $6.00/kg for the first time since October, and prices from South East Asia slumping below $4.00/kg.

While transpacific volumes fell sharply following US de minimis suspensions in May, capacity and volumes have gradually recovered. This rebound is driven partly by a recovery in e-commerce volumes, but mostly by general cargo growth from China and South East Asia – especially Vietnam – as demand for AI hardware and trade war shifts in electronics sourcing push more volumes to the air.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Supply Chain KPIs Are No Longer Keeping Up with the Job

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Supply chain leaders are being asked to deliver far more than cost savings. They are expected to improve resilience, accelerate decisions, manage supplier risk, strengthen continuity, and support broader business strategy. Yet in many organizations, the performance metrics used to evaluate supply chain teams still reflect an older operating model built primarily around savings and transactional efficiency.

That gap matters. If the work has expanded but the scorecard has not, teams may be incentivized to optimize for short-term cost reductions while underweighting resilience, responsiveness, and risk readiness. Supplier diversification, recovery planning, sourcing cycle time, decision latency, and exposure visibility are increasingly central to supply chain performance, but they are not always captured in traditional KPI frameworks.

The Institute for Supply Management recently published a useful article on this issue, arguing that supply chain value now needs to be measured across a broader set of dimensions, including resilience, speed, risk reduction, and organizational readiness. The piece makes the case that savings remain important, but they are no longer sufficient as the primary indicator of supply chain contribution.

For supply chain executives, the larger takeaway is clear: measurement systems need to catch up with the strategic role supply chain now plays. Organizations that modernize their KPI frameworks will be better positioned to demonstrate value not only through cost control, but through continuity, agility, and better enterprise decision-making.

Read the full article from the Institute for Supply Management here: Supply Chain work has evolved faster than the KPI’s used to measure it.

The post Supply Chain KPIs Are No Longer Keeping Up with the Job appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Regulated Supply Chains Are Prioritizing Traceability Over Pure Efficiency

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For decades, supply chain strategy was dominated by efficiency. Companies reduced inventory, consolidated suppliers, optimized transportation networks, minimized operational slack, and extended global sourcing structures in pursuit of lower costs and better asset utilization.

Those priorities still matter. But in regulated industries, they are no longer enough.

Healthcare, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, food, and medical-device supply chains now operate under a broader definition of performance. Product accountability, traceability, compliance continuity, and operational control are becoming as important as traditional efficiency metrics. In these sectors, the supply chain is not simply a cost structure. It is part of the organization’s control system.

That is why traceability is moving from an administrative requirement to a strategic operating capability. It allows companies to understand where materials originated, how products moved, which lots were affected, where inventory was distributed, and which customers or facilities received product. In stable conditions, that information may appear routine. Under disruption, it becomes essential.

Efficiency Alone Can Create Fragility

Highly optimized supply chains can perform very well when conditions are stable. The problem emerges when something goes wrong.

A supplier issue, quality deviation, transportation disruption, documentation failure, or traceability gap can quickly create consequences that extend far beyond delayed delivery. In regulated environments, these failures may trigger investigations, product holds, recalls, compliance exposure, customer disruption, and reputational damage.

That changes the operating calculus. A supply chain optimized purely for cost may not provide enough visibility or control when conditions deteriorate. The result is a shift toward a more balanced view of operational performance.

The objective is no longer simply maximum efficiency. It is controlled resilience.

Traceability Is More Than Compliance

Traceability is often treated narrowly as a compliance requirement. Its strategic value is broader.

Strong traceability improves root-cause analysis. It strengthens recall precision. It supports supplier accountability. It reduces ambiguity during disruptions. It helps organizations isolate operational risk more quickly and respond with greater confidence.

In practice, traceability becomes part of the enterprise’s ability to operate under uncertainty. A supply chain that clearly understands its dependencies can respond more intelligently than one relying on fragmented records, manual investigation, and disconnected documentation.

This is especially important in industries where the cost of ambiguity is high. In food, a traceability gap can widen the scope of a recall. In pharmaceuticals, incomplete lot visibility can delay containment. In aerospace or medical devices, documentation failures can affect audit readiness, quality assurance, and customer trust.

The strategic point is straightforward: traceability is not just about knowing what happened. It is about being able to act when it matters.

Complexity Is Raising the Bar

Several forces are increasing traceability requirements across regulated industries. Global sourcing networks are longer and more complex. Product portfolios are becoming more specialized. Regulatory scrutiny continues to increase. ESG expectations are adding new accountability pressures. Serialization, product authentication, and chain-of-custody requirements are expanding.

At the same time, supply chains are becoming more digital. Sensor data, IoT monitoring, electronic batch records, serialization systems, digital quality environments, supplier platforms, and logistics visibility tools now generate far more operational information than before.

The challenge is no longer simply collecting data. The challenge is coordinating and interpreting it across the enterprise.

That requires stronger data governance, better integration, and more contextual intelligence. Traceability systems create limited value if the data remains trapped in separate systems or disconnected from operational decision-making.

Traceability Depends on Coordination

A quality alert matters only if the organization can quickly identify affected inventory. A supplier issue matters only if downstream dependencies are visible. A transportation disruption matters only if customer, inventory, and compliance implications can be understood quickly.

This is where the broader shift toward continuous intelligence becomes important. As discussed in The Next Supply Chain Operating Model Will Be Built Around Continuous Intelligence, supply chains increasingly require systems capable of sensing, interpreting, and coordinating operational response continuously.

Traceability becomes significantly more valuable when it supports faster and more coordinated decisions. It is not enough to document product movement after the fact. Companies need traceability data to inform decisions in near real time.

This also explains why graph-oriented architectures and contextual AI systems are attracting attention. Regulated supply chain risk rarely exists in isolation. It moves through relationships among suppliers, products, lots, facilities, customers, logistics flows, and regulatory obligations.

Understanding those relationships operationally is becoming increasingly important.

The Efficiency Tradeoff Is Becoming More Nuanced

Prioritizing traceability does not mean abandoning efficiency. It means recognizing that efficiency must be balanced against resilience, accountability, and operational control.

The most efficient network on paper may not be the most resilient network under stress. A lower-cost supplier strategy may create greater exposure if visibility is weak. A highly optimized transportation network may become vulnerable if traceability and exception response are insufficient.

This does not eliminate the importance of lean operations. It changes the definition of operational maturity.

The organizations that perform best increasingly understand where visibility, traceability, and control create disproportionate strategic value. They are not simply asking how to reduce cost. They are asking where lack of control could create unacceptable operational, regulatory, or reputational exposure.

The Strategic Implication

Regulated supply chains are moving toward a broader definition of operational excellence.

Cost and efficiency still matter. But so do traceability, governed response, compliance continuity, visibility, accountability, and operational resilience.

The organizations that lead over the next decade may not simply be those with the lowest cost structures. They may be the ones capable of maintaining control, preserving trust, and coordinating response effectively under increasingly complex operating conditions.

In regulated industries, traceability is no longer merely administrative infrastructure. It is becoming part of the competitive operating model itself.

The post Why Regulated Supply Chains Are Prioritizing Traceability Over Pure Efficiency appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Medtronic: Strengthening Regulated Medical Device Supply Chains

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Medical device supply chains operate under a different standard than many commercial supply chains.

Efficiency still matters. So do inventory discipline, transportation performance, and cost control. But regulated healthcare environments must also preserve traceability, quality assurance, compliance continuity, documentation integrity, product accountability, and controlled response processes.

That changes the operating model.

Medtronic offers a useful example. As one of the world’s largest medical technology companies, it operates across a complex global network of manufacturing sites, suppliers, logistics providers, hospitals, clinicians, distributors, regulators, and field-service organizations.

The objective is not simply to move products efficiently. It is to maintain product availability, quality, traceability, and regulatory compliance at the same time.

Regulation Changes the Supply Chain Equation

In many industries, supply chain performance is measured primarily through cost, service, and working-capital efficiency.

In regulated healthcare, the equation is broader. A shipment delay matters, but so does a documentation error, labeling issue, quality deviation, traceability gap, supplier compliance problem, or uncontrolled product movement.

The consequences can extend well beyond logistics disruption. They may affect regulatory exposure, product release, recall management, or clinical continuity.

That changes how resilience is defined. In regulated supply chains, resilience is not simply the ability to move inventory around disruption. It is the ability to preserve continuity while maintaining quality, traceability, and compliance discipline throughout the process.

That is a more demanding operating requirement.

Visibility Must Extend Beyond Transportation

For medical device companies, visibility cannot stop at shipment tracking.

The enterprise also needs visibility into supplier quality, serialized inventory, manufacturing conditions, product genealogy, service inventory, documentation status, field inventory positioning, and regulatory workflows.

The supply chain is not merely transporting products. It is managing accountable product movement across a controlled operating environment.

This is why regulated industries are investing more heavily in integrated visibility and traceability systems. Companies need to know not only where products are, but whether they remain compliant, whether documentation is complete, whether quality conditions have been maintained, and whether downstream commitments remain protected.

That requires tighter coordination across supply chain, quality, manufacturing, logistics, and regulatory functions.

Exception Management Becomes More Sensitive

Exceptions carry greater operational consequence in regulated healthcare environments.

A delayed shipment may affect hospital inventory. A supplier issue may trigger quality review. A labeling problem may delay product release. A traceability gap may complicate recall management.

The organization therefore needs more than awareness. It needs governed response.

This connects directly to the broader rise of autonomous exception management in logistics operations. In regulated supply chains, earlier detection is valuable not only because it accelerates response, but because it gives the enterprise more time to coordinate a compliant response before risk escalates.

AI-assisted systems may help prioritize exceptions, assemble context, identify affected inventory, and route decisions more efficiently. But the operating environment still requires governance, escalation controls, auditability, and human oversight.

This is not uncontrolled automation. It is governed operational intelligence.

Coordination Across the Enterprise

Medical device supply chains are deeply interconnected.

Supply chain teams must coordinate continuously with manufacturing, procurement, quality, regulatory, logistics, commercial teams, field-service operations, and healthcare providers. A disruption in one part of the network can quickly propagate into others.

That is why fragmented systems create particular risk in regulated industries. Disconnected operational environments do not merely reduce efficiency. They can increase operational and compliance exposure at the same time.

For medical device companies, enterprise coordination is not a process improvement exercise. It is part of the control system that protects product integrity, customer commitments, and regulatory standing.

The Broader Lesson

Medtronic’s operating environment reflects a broader shift across regulated industries.

The future supply chain is not simply leaner or faster. It must also be more traceable, more coordinated, more governed, more resilient, and more transparent.

That requires stronger integration between supply chain execution, quality management, regulatory processes, and enterprise intelligence systems.

In regulated healthcare, the supply chain is becoming part of the trust architecture surrounding the product itself. Over the next decade, that may become one of the most important strategic operating requirements in the industry.

The post Medtronic: Strengthening Regulated Medical Device Supply Chains appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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