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Typhoon disrupts Far East freight, ocean rates slide – September 25, 2025 Update

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Typhoon disrupts Far East freight, ocean rates slide – September 25, 2025 Update

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September 25, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 5% to $2,185/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2% to $3,426/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 15% to $2,196/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 15% to $2,421/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 4% to $5.44/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 2% to $3.72/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 3% to $1.77/kg.

Analysis

Typhoon Ragasa caused significant damage in areas of Taiwan and the Philippines as it passed through the South China Sea early this week before making landfall in China’s Guangdong province on Wednesday. Ragasa, now a tropical storm, is traveling along the coast toward Vietnam.

The typhoon closed all container ports and airports in Hong Kong and southern China since Monday, with some reopening Thursday. Hapag-Lloyd expects the damage and backlog to create delays of several days at the major ports in the region, with vessels at Yantian possibly held up by as much as a week.

The delays could be particularly disruptive for shippers still trying to move orders ahead of the Golden Week holiday in China starting October 1st. But, as many Asia – Europe shippers have likely already moved peak season goods, and with transpacific peak season pulled forward by tariff deadlines, the lull in demand expected in October could minimize the extent to which disruptions from the typhoon will be felt on the major tradelanes.

Transpacific container rates to the East Coast ticked up 2% last week to $3,426/FEU, but prices fell 5% to $2,185/FEU to the West Coast. Daily prices to the West Coast have slipped below $1,900/FEU so far this week.

Asia-Europe and Mediterranean spot rates continued their nearly uninterrupted since mid-July decline last week, with prices falling 15% on both lanes to $2,196/FEU to Europe and $2,421/FEU to the Mediterranean. The decline pushed rates on both lanes to their lowest levels since December of 2023. Rates continue to slide despite reports that enough capacity has been removed to reach a supply-demand balance, leading some to suggest that a price war is now contributing to falling rates on these lanes.

For all ex-China lanes though, congestion at Far East ports due to the typhoon – together with an increase in blanked sailings for October – could help carriers stabilize rates as demand likely continues to slide into Q4.

In trade war developments, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a call earlier this week. The conversation focussed on reaching a TikTok resolution but, according to the White House, also made progress on trade issues, with the US-China tariff status quo set to expire in November.

The USTR is set to start applying port call fees for Chinese carriers and China-made vessels on October 14th. Chinese carrier COSCO has announced it does not anticipate disruptions to its transpacific services and will not introduce surcharges due to the new fees, with other carriers, like Maersk, also stating they do not plan to introduce fees due to the new rule. Meanwhile, the US’s 50% tariffs on Brazil have led to reports of sharp decreases in Brazil-US container volumes.

In air cargo, Typhoon Ragasa caused thousands of flight cancellations out of airports in the affected regions, including Hong Kong, though some flights are expected to resume today. Disruptions to ocean logistics could cause some short term shift to air.

More broadly, the industry continues to feel impacts from trade war-driven shifts in sourcing and demand. Some reports, for example, show that as China-US volumes have declined, Vietnam-US capacity has doubled. Asia-Europe lanes have also seen volume growth as some manufacturers explore a “US+1” strategy, with carriers likewise shifting capacity to where demand is growing.

With these capacity shifts between lanes accompanying changes in demand, Freightos Air Index data show China-Europe rates of $3.72/kg have been about stable since mid-July and about even with last year. An uptick so far this week to about $4.00/kg could reflect some increased air demand due to a border closure in Poland that is disrupting China-Europe rail. China-N. America prices increased 4% last week to $5.44/kg, though last year prices were at about $5.80/kg.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Transform Your Ocean Freight Quoting Process

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Join us for an exclusive product tour of Freightos for Forwarders Ocean, a solution that brings the speed and efficiency of digital quoting to ocean freight.

It lets you compare routes by transit time and price, view all carrier surcharges upfront, and build accurate quotes in minutes—all within the same ecosystem you might already use for air freight.

What We’ll Cover in 30 Minutes:

Live Demo of Rate & Quote Ocean: See how the platform lets you search contracts and dynamic spot rates in one click, view carrier surcharges upfront, and build accurate LCL/FCL quotes in seconds.
Q&A: Get your operational and workflow questions answered directly by our product team in a live Q&A session

The post Transform Your Ocean Freight Quoting Process appeared first on Freightos.

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SAP Is Expanding the Definition of Transportation Management

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Transportation management has traditionally been treated as a fairly well-defined software category. Bring transportation demand into the system, optimize loads, select carriers, tender freight, track execution, settle invoices, and measure performance.

SAP’s latest transportation management briefing points toward something broader.

The company is no longer presenting transportation simply as a stand-alone planning application. It is increasingly assembling a tiered logistics execution architecture, with SAP Transportation Management handling sophisticated transportation operations, Business Network for Logistics connecting execution to carriers and other external partners, SAP Logistics Management addressing simpler sites and distribution operations, and Joule beginning to coordinate decisions across those layers.

That is a more consequential shift than simply adding another collection of TMS features.

SAP TM remains the advanced transportation engine

SAP Transportation Management remains the center of the portfolio for complex transportation operations. The platform spans order management, transportation planning, execution, charge management, freight settlement, analytics, strategic freight management, and essentially every major transportation mode other than pipeline.

But the interesting part of SAP’s strategy is increasingly what happens around that transportation engine.

A transportation plan does not exist in isolation. It affects warehouse labor, dock capacity, inventory availability, customer commitments, carrier operations, global trade requirements, dangerous-goods restrictions, and ultimately financial settlement.

SAP continues to tighten those connections.

The company highlighted further development of Advanced Shipping and Receiving, which links transportation and warehouse execution more closely, along with capabilities including ad hoc loading, rules-based loading, improved process reversals, requirements grouping, and tighter integration between Transportation Management and Extended Warehouse Management.

The objective is straightforward: an optimal transportation plan is not particularly useful if the warehouse cannot execute it.

That sounds obvious. Architecturally, however, it is one of the more important issues facing logistics technology.

The network is increasingly part of the transportation system

SAP is also treating external collaboration as an integral part of transportation execution.

Business Network for Logistics provides connectivity for carrier tendering, appointments, freight invoices, shipment visibility, fleet information, milestone events, alerts, and emissions information. SAP also continues to support different levels of carrier sophistication, from APIs and EDI to web portals for smaller transportation providers.

This matters because transportation is inherently an inter-enterprise process.

The most sophisticated optimization engine in the world still has limited value if the resulting plan cannot be communicated, accepted, monitored, and adjusted across carriers, suppliers, warehouses, and customers.

For SAP, the carrier network is therefore becoming less of an adjacent capability and more of an execution layer around the TMS.

SAP Logistics Management fills an important gap

The most strategically interesting part of the briefing may have been SAP Logistics Management.

SAP acknowledged a problem that exists across many enterprise logistics environments: not every facility needs a full enterprise TMS.

A multinational organization may operate several highly complex distribution centers that require advanced optimization, international transportation management, and sophisticated freight settlement. That same company may also operate dozens or hundreds of smaller facilities performing relatively straightforward local distribution.

Deploying the same heavyweight architecture everywhere can become unnecessary complexity.

SAP Logistics Management is intended to address those simpler-to-moderate transportation and warehouse scenarios. SAP specifically discussed local distribution sites, regional fulfillment operations, and other facilities where a full TM implementation may be more capability than the operation requires.

This gives SAP the beginnings of a much more interesting portfolio structure:

advanced transportation where complexity requires it, lighter execution where it does not, and a common logistics architecture connecting the two.

For large enterprises with highly uneven operational complexity, that could be a meaningful proposition.

Joule is moving from interface to execution

AI was inevitably a major theme of the briefing, but the more important development is how SAP is changing the role of Joule.

The first generation of generative AI in transportation largely involved conversational access to information. A planner might ask the system to locate certain freight orders, identify unplanned demand, or retrieve transportation information using natural language.

SAP is now moving toward transactional interaction.

One example discussed in the briefing was the ability to tell Joule that a carrier has experienced a truck failure and then instruct the system to change the carrier across the affected freight orders.

The roadmap moves further toward agentic execution.

SAP described agents for predictive logistics insights, consignment-order processing, freight invoice analysis, and tendering and subcontracting optimization. The predictive logistics capability is intended to monitor events, identify potential disruption, recommend responses, and potentially trigger rerouting or other adjustments before service deteriorates.

The operating model begins to look less like:

event → dashboard → planner

and more like:

event → context → decision → recommendation → execution

That is where agentic AI becomes relevant to logistics.

The challenge will be governance. SAP emphasized that its agents operate within underlying application processes and controls, with humans remaining involved when confidence is insufficient or a consequential transaction requires validation.

That is the right boundary to watch as the technology develops.

TMS is becoming part of a larger execution architecture

The broader implication extends beyond SAP.

Transportation management is gradually becoming less of an isolated application category and more of a layer within a connected logistics execution system.

TMS still matters. Optimization still matters. Carrier selection, routing, freight settlement, and execution discipline still matter.

But increasingly the competitive question will be how effectively transportation connects to warehouse operations, carrier networks, enterprise data, visibility, and automated decision-making.

SAP’s emerging architecture reflects that shift. Transportation Management provides the advanced engine. Business Network for Logistics extends execution outside the enterprise. Logistics Management addresses lower-complexity operations. Joule and the emerging agent layer begin to coordinate decisions across the environment.

SAP is also continuing to develop the underlying operational platform rather than treating AI as a substitute for conventional product investment, with further work planned around integrated planning, public-cloud logistics integration, freight settlement, and industry-specific capabilities.

The next generation of transportation management will therefore not be defined simply by who can calculate the lowest-cost load.

It will increasingly be defined by how quickly the logistics system can sense what changed, understand its operational significance, determine the best response, coordinate that response across transportation and warehouse operations, and execute it across the broader logistics network.

SAP is building its transportation portfolio around that much larger definition.

The post SAP Is Expanding the Definition of Transportation Management appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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NVIDIA’s $96 Billion Quarter Is Also a Supply Chain Story

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NVIDIA reported another extraordinary quarter Wednesday. Revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago, while Data Center revenue climbed to $89 billion, up 117%. The company expects roughly $108 billion in third-quarter revenue and now sees revenue growing about 70% in its next fiscal year.

Those numbers understandably dominate the headlines.

But there is another number in NVIDIA’s results that may be even more interesting from a logistics and supply chain perspective: $279 billion.

That is the amount NVIDIA has committed to future supply and capacity, up from $119 billion just three months ago. According to the company’s CFO commentary, the increase is primarily related to securing memory and other critical components needed to meet expected demand over the next several years.

That makes NVIDIA’s earnings more than an AI story.

They are also a case study in what happens when extraordinary demand runs into constrained industrial capacity.

AI Is Becoming Physical Infrastructure

The first phase of generative AI was dominated by model training, experimentation and software.

The next phase looks considerably more physical.

NVIDIA is now talking about AI factories, gigascale computing facilities, large-scale networking, power, memory, data-center capacity, agents and physical AI. Vera Rubin is moving into full production, and the company has announced partnerships intended to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for additional AI infrastructure.

AWS and NVIDIA also announced an expansion involving 2 million additional GPUs, another indication of the scale at which computing infrastructure is now being deployed.

For logistics executives, this changes how AI should be viewed.

AI may appear virtual when somebody enters a prompt into a browser, but the infrastructure behind that prompt is increasingly industrial. It requires semiconductor fabrication, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, networking equipment, power systems, cooling equipment, servers and enormous data-center construction programs.

All of that has to be sourced, manufactured, transported and installed.

NVIDIA Is Locking Down Its Supply Chain

The scale of NVIDIA’s commitments is striking.

The company had $279 billion in future supply and capacity commitments at the end of the quarter. Approximately $267 billion of that is scheduled within the next three fiscal years. NVIDIA expects about $92 billion of supply commitments during the remainder of the current fiscal year, followed by $87 billion and $88 billion in the following two years.

The principal issue is memory.

High-bandwidth memory has become one of the critical inputs into advanced AI systems, and NVIDIA is effectively reserving capacity well ahead of demand.

This is a familiar supply-chain response to constrained capacity: secure the bottleneck before someone else does.

What is unusual is the scale.

NVIDIA is making commitments measured in hundreds of billions of dollars because the company believes the larger risk is not excess inventory. It is being unable to satisfy demand.

That is an important distinction.

When supply becomes the constraint, procurement stops being primarily a cost-management function. It becomes a growth-enablement function.

The Trade-Off Is Showing Up in Margins

Securing supply does not come free.

NVIDIA reported a 75% gross margin in the quarter but expects approximately 74% in the current quarter. Management has also warned that higher memory costs will create additional margin pressure before pricing and supply conditions begin to catch up.

That is another useful supply-chain lesson.

A company can have enormous demand and still face deteriorating economics if critical inputs become scarce.

In NVIDIA’s case, management appears willing to tolerate some margin pressure to ensure that it can continue shipping systems into a market where demand remains greater than available capacity.

That is not particularly different from what manufacturers, retailers and logistics operators learned during the pandemic.

The difference is that this time the constrained commodity happens to be some of the most advanced technology in the world.

From Compute to Operational AI

The second logistics implication is downstream.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described AI as having reached an inflection point where it is doing useful work rather than simply being trained. NVIDIA is consequently shifting more attention toward inference, agents, robotics and physical AI.

That matters because logistics is an execution environment.

A transportation operation does not ultimately need an AI system that tells a planner that a shipment will be late. It needs a system capable of understanding the implications, evaluating alternatives and determining what should happen next.

The same is true in a warehouse. Identifying congestion is useful. Changing labor allocations, equipment priorities or order sequences in response is much more valuable.

That requires continuous inference and increasingly tight connections between software intelligence and physical systems.

Physical AI Moves Toward Logistics

NVIDIA is making a major push into what it calls physical AI: systems that perceive, reason about and act within the physical world.

Its recent announcements include robotics platforms, autonomous-vehicle technology, safety systems and agent tools designed for physical AI applications.

Warehouses are an obvious environment for this technology.

Autonomous mobile robots, robotic picking, machine vision, automated storage systems and increasingly sophisticated orchestration platforms are already common. The next stage is making these systems more adaptive.

A robot needs to interpret changing physical conditions. An orchestration layer needs to understand orders, inventory and equipment availability. Transportation systems need to reconcile constantly changing physical conditions with customer commitments.

That requires a great deal of compute.

NVIDIA’s infrastructure buildout is therefore not disconnected from logistics automation. It is one of the upstream enablers.

Agentic AI Raises the Architecture Question

There is also a third implication.

NVIDIA is explicitly positioning new infrastructure around AI agents. Its Vera CPU, for example, is being marketed as a processor designed for agentic workloads.

In logistics, that could eventually mean software agents operating across transportation, warehousing, inventory and order management.

A transportation agent might identify an inbound delay. An inventory agent could calculate the resulting exposure. A warehouse agent could adjust receiving priorities. An order-management system could evaluate customer commitments.

The value comes when these systems can coordinate.

That requires more than GPUs. It requires trusted data, operational context, retrieval, interoperability and an understanding of the relationships among shipments, orders, facilities, products and customers. Those are precisely the architectural issues behind agent-to-agent communication, context management, RAG and graph-based reasoning.

The Bigger Logistics Lesson

NVIDIA’s quarter says something larger than “AI demand remains strong.”

It shows what happens when a software-driven technology transition becomes an infrastructure cycle.

Supply availability becomes strategic. Capacity gets reserved years in advance. Component shortages affect margins. Financing becomes intertwined with infrastructure development. And the physical supply chain becomes as important as the algorithms running on top of it.

NVIDIA’s $279 billion supply commitment may therefore be one of the most revealing numbers in the entire earnings release.

The company is effectively betting that the greater risk is not building too much AI infrastructure.

It is failing to build enough.

For logistics leaders, that is worth watching closely. The AI revolution is beginning to look considerably less virtual.

It increasingly looks like factories, components, power, warehouses, transportation and capacity.

In other words, it looks a lot like a supply chain.

The post NVIDIA’s $96 Billion Quarter Is Also a Supply Chain Story appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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