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Transpac rates cooling again; carriers prep for USTR fees – September 16, 2025 Update

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Transpac rates cooling again; carriers prep for USTR fees – September 16, 2025 Update

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September 16, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 7% to $2,309/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4% to $3,368/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 2% to $2,585/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 4% to $2,833/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 1% to $5.24/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 3% to $3.64/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices stayed level at $1.72/kg.

Analysis

The latest round of China-US trade talks got underway in Madrid this week, with progress on a Tik Tok deal possibly a good sign for broader trade discussions.

The Trump administration extended 30% baseline tariffs on all imports from China for another 90-days a month ago in order to encourage further negotiations. And though the move has not led to a significant surge of transpacific container volumes since, it may have slowed the rate of declining demand.

Frontloaded volumes that arrived ahead of tariff deadlines set for April and again for July and August have come at the expense of the typical strength of H2 US container imports relative to the first half of the year most years. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import volume report estimates that H2 volumes will be down 10% year on year, with October imports 13% lower than a year ago and November and December volumes 20% lower.

Source: National Retail Federation, Global Port Tracker

The latest estimate for September import volumes, however, are 16% higher than the NRF’s September projections made at the beginning of August – just before the 90-day China tariff extension announcement – suggesting some positive impact on imports from the sustained 30% US tariffs on China.

Transpacific container rates to the West Coast increased slightly last week to $2,309/FEU, and are 34% higher than prices at the end of August. Rates to the East Coast climbed 4% last week to $3,368/FEU and have increased 24% so far this month. Prices climbed on early month General Rate Increases and were supported by some increase in demand ahead of the approaching Golden Week holiday in China and an increase in blanked sailings – and may have been helped by some volume increase due to the 30% China tariff extension.

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Not everyone is convinced that the October 14th USTR port call fees on China-made vessels and operators will materialize, as the issue may be part of the ongoing US-China negotiations. But carriers are making moves to minimize their exposure nonetheless. And these adjustments may have also put some temporary upward pressure on rates as vessels and services were being shuffled.

Carriers will attempt additional mid-month GRIs for transpacific services this week, and though carriers are also increasing blanked sailings for the rest of September and October, demand trends have many observers anticipating rates will fall.

Asia-Europe container rates climbed 2% last week to $2,585/FEU, while prices to the Mediterranean dipped 4% to $2,833/FEU. Rates on both lanes have fallen about $200/FEU so far this week, signalling the coming end of this year’s peak season as Golden Week nears. Despite volume increases compared to last year though, rates significantly lower than the $5,000+/FEU prices seen last September reflect the effects of growing capacity on these lanes.

Steep US tariffs on imports from India are leading to reports of falling India-US air cargo demand as some shippers pause or cancel orders. Freightos Air Index South Asia – N. America rates have fallen 13% since July to $4.18/kg while prices to Europe have dipped only 2% to $2.92/kg. Ex-China rates were stable overall last week with prices to the US easing 1% to $5.24/kg, and rates to Europe ticking up 3% to $3.64/kg.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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The Physical Logistics Network Is Getting an Intelligence Layer

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For most of logistics history, the physical network knew far more about itself than its information systems did. A driver knew a trailer was delayed before the planning system did. A warehouse supervisor could see congestion building at the dock while enterprise applications still showed normal status. A forklift operator knew an aisle was blocked. A container sat at a terminal while downstream systems waited for a status message. That intelligence layer builds on the distinction in Decision Intelligence in 2026 between producing analytical insight and materially improving a consequential operating decision.

That gap between physical reality and digital representation has been one of the defining constraints of logistics management.

It is beginning to narrow.

Physical Assets Are Becoming Observable

Trucks, trailers, containers, forklifts, robots, conveyors, dock doors, pallets, and facilities increasingly generate digital signals. Telematics provides vehicle state and location. RFID and other identification technologies help track goods and assets. Cameras and computer vision can interpret physical activity. Sensors monitor temperature, vibration, equipment condition, and environmental state. Geofencing turns movement into events.

The result is not a literal “internet” of every physical object. It is something operationally more important: a growing ability for software to understand the state of the logistics network without waiting for manual reporting.

Events Become Digital State

An isolated sensor reading has limited value. The architectural change occurs when events are associated with persistent business entities.

This trailer is at this yard. This container contains these orders. This dock is occupied. This robot is unavailable. This shipment is expected to reach this facility at this time. This pallet is associated with this customer commitment.

Identity turns telemetry into context. That is why master data and entity resolution matter so much. If systems cannot reliably determine that two identifiers refer to the same trailer, shipment, location, or product, the digital picture fragments.

Computer Vision Expands What Can Be Measured

Some important logistics states have historically been difficult to capture because they are visual rather than transactional.

Is a dock occupied? Is a trailer damaged? Is freight staged in the wrong location? Is a safety zone blocked? Is a pallet configured correctly? Is a yard lane congested?

Computer vision can convert selected physical observations into structured events. That does not eliminate the need for people, but it expands the range of operating conditions that software can monitor.

Warehouses Become Instrumented Environments

Automated warehouses already produce large volumes of machine data. Robots report status. Conveyors generate events. AS/RS equipment records movement. WMS and WES systems track tasks and inventory transitions.

As those signals become more integrated, the facility can be represented with increasing fidelity. That enables earlier detection of bottlenecks, more dynamic work allocation, predictive maintenance, and better simulation of how changes will affect throughput.

Transportation Becomes a Moving Sensor Network

Transportation is more difficult because assets operate across public infrastructure, carrier networks, and multiple ownership boundaries. Even so, connected vehicles, mobile devices, telematics, ELD-related data, carrier APIs, and location services have dramatically improved the ability to observe movement.

The strategic value is not simply knowing where a truck is. It is connecting that state to orders, appointments, inventory, customer commitments, and downstream resources.

Digital Twins Become More Practical

The phrase “digital twin” is sometimes used too loosely. A useful logistics twin is not merely a visualization. It is a sufficiently current digital representation of a physical system that can support analysis, simulation, or control. The richer the operating state, the more useful that representation becomes.

A warehouse twin can test flow changes. A transportation-network model can evaluate disruption scenarios. A yard representation can help coordinate trailer movement. A broader logistics twin can explore how a constraint in one node propagates to others. The value comes from decision support, not graphical sophistication.

Observability Creates New Failure Modes

More connected logistics also creates new dependencies.

Sensors can fail. Data can be delayed. Identifiers can be wrong. Connectivity can disappear. Computer vision can misclassify. APIs can change. Cybersecurity risk expands as more operational assets become connected.

Organizations therefore need confidence measures and graceful degradation. An intelligent system must know when the underlying state is uncertain.

The Economics of Machine-Readable Logistics

Better physical observability can improve asset utilization, reduce loss, support predictive maintenance, improve service, lower search and coordination effort, and help prevent exceptions before they become expensive. But the largest strategic effect may be indirect.

Software can only make useful operational decisions about the world it can represent. As the digital state becomes richer, optimization and AI can address a larger portion of logistics execution.

Information Is No Longer the Only Constraint

This creates a new paradox. Logistics organizations can now receive more information, more frequently, about more assets than ever before. Yet performance can still be constrained because people and systems cannot interpret and act on that information quickly enough. In other words, the bottleneck moves from sensing to deciding.

That makes decision velocity more than a management concept. It is becoming a form of logistics capacity.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

The New Architecture of Logistics
Systems Engineering in Logistics
2026 Supply Chain Decision Intelligence Market Map
The Emerging Intelligence Layer Above ERP, TMS, and WMS Platforms
Previous in this series: AI Agents Are Coming for Logistics Execution

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If your organization is assessing connected execution, orchestration, AI, observability, decision velocity, or selective autonomy, I would be glad to provide the complete client edition and discuss the implications for your logistics operating model and technology architecture.

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The post The Physical Logistics Network Is Getting an Intelligence Layer appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Maritime Cybersecurity Is Becoming an Operational Priority

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Digitalization is changing how ships, ports, offshore platforms, and logistics networks operate. Navigation, cargo handling, propulsion, communications, maintenance, and business applications are increasingly connected. These links improve efficiency and visibility, but they also expose maritime operations to ransomware, supply-chain compromise, navigation interference, and attacks on operational technology (OT).

The central issue is no longer simply whether an attacker can steal data. A maritime cyber incident can delay cargo, impair navigation, interrupt terminal operations, remove visibility into safety-critical processes, or prevent equipment from operating as intended. Cybersecurity therefore belongs within operational resilience and safety management—not solely within the IT department.

Recent Events Show the Range of Exposure

Recent incidents illustrate both the seriousness of the threat and the difficulty of confirming attribution. In August 2026, US authorities boarded the fully laden tanker VL Prosperity after indications of malicious cyber activity. Public reporting described temporary unauthorized access to a propulsion-related digital system, although authorities did not confirm that an attacker issued propulsion commands or caused a physical change. Even with those uncertainties, access to a propulsion environment would mark a significant escalation from attacks limited to administrative networks.

A separate September disruption aboard the Vivit Africa LNG left the crew without access to systems used to monitor cargo parameters. The crew suspected a cyberattack, while the Italian Coast Guard confirmed only that a systems malfunction had occurred and required technical intervention. The distinction matters, but so does the operational lesson: maritime organizations must be able to respond safely while the cause of a disruption is still unknown.

Ports have faced comparable pressure. Ransomware and other cyber incidents have interrupted scheduling, customs processing, gate operations, and supply-chain visibility. These cases demonstrate that an enterprise IT compromise can still stop physical commerce, even when cranes, pumps, or vessel control systems are not directly affected.

A Distinctive Maritime Threat Landscape

Maritime environments combine long-lived assets, intermittent connectivity, distributed operations, and extensive third-party involvement. Ships can remain in service for decades, leaving older controllers, workstations, and protocols operating alongside connected applications that their designers never anticipated. At sea, bandwidth may be constrained, specialist support may be remote, and aggressive containment can remove critical visibility or control.

Navigation adds another layer of exposure. GPS and other GNSS spoofing or jamming can create false position data, while manipulation of Automatic Identification System information can obscure vessel identity or movement. Resilience requires independent position verification, trained crews, and trusted fallback methods—not just stronger perimeter defenses.

The highest-consequence scenarios involve propulsion, power management, ballast control, dynamic positioning, cargo systems, cranes, pumps, and safety functions. Remote maintenance and vendor diagnostics add value, but they can also extend the trust boundary through weak credentials, unmanaged connections, portable media, or poorly governed updates. Security programs should therefore assess suppliers, access pathways, and operational dependencies together.

Regulation Is Raising the Baseline

Regulators and classification bodies are increasingly treating cyber risk as a maritime safety issue. The US Coast Guard’s Marine Transportation System cybersecurity rule establishes requirements for cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity planning, training, exercises, incident response, and recovery. Principal obligations are being phased in, with regulated owners and operators generally expected to designate a cybersecurity officer, complete an assessment, and submit a plan by July 16, 2027.

The International Maritime Organization has already directed organizations to incorporate cyber risk into Safety Management Systems. Its approach is practical: identify, protect, detect, respond, and recover. The IACS Unified Requirements E26 and E27 reinforce this direction by embedding cybersecurity into covered new ships and onboard equipment, encouraging secure design rather than costly retrofits.

European requirements add pressure across maritime operators and technology suppliers. The NIS2 Directive strengthens governance, supply-chain security, incident reporting, and business continuity expectations for critical sectors including transport. The Cyber Resilience Act introduces cybersecurity requirements for connected products sold in Europe. Together, these measures make fragmented, compliance-only programs increasingly difficult to sustain.

What Maritime Operators Should Do Now

The first priority is visibility. Operators need maintained inventories of hardware, software, firmware, communications paths, ownership, safety functions, and dependencies across vessels and shoreside facilities. Criticality should be based on operational and safety consequences, not vulnerability scores alone.

Second, networks should be segmented by operational function. Bridge, machinery, safety, cargo, passenger, corporate, wireless, satellite, and vendor environments should not have unrestricted connectivity. Architectures must also support safe degraded operation when external communications are unavailable.

Third, remote access should be purpose-specific, time-limited, strongly authenticated, approved, and monitored. Operators should know which suppliers can connect, which assets they can reach, and who authorizes each session. Contracts should define responsibilities for security updates, logging, vulnerability disclosure, incident cooperation, and recovery.

Finally, detection and response must reflect OT realities. Playbooks should account for the possibility that isolating a device could create a greater hazard. Exercises should test limited bandwidth, unavailable shore support, compromised navigation data, and loss of trusted configurations. Verified backups, known-good baselines, spare equipment, manual operating modes, and practiced restoration procedures are essential parts of cyber resilience.

ARC Perspective

Maritime cybersecurity is reaching the same inflection point previously encountered in power, oil and gas, and manufacturing. Connectivity is expanding faster than many legacy environments were designed to accommodate, while regulatory expectations and threat capabilities continue to rise.

Compliance provides a necessary baseline, but resilience is the more meaningful measure. Maritime organizations should ask whether crews and operators can recognize abnormal behavior, sustain safe operations through degraded communications, contain an intrusion without creating a new hazard, and restore systems to a known-good state.

Existing resources—including the NIST Cybersecurity Framework, NIST OT security guidance, and the ISA/IEC 62443 series—provide a strong foundation. The task is to apply them consistently across vessels, ports, offshore assets, and suppliers. Organizations that integrate cyber risk with safety, engineering, workforce readiness, and recovery will be better positioned to protect crews, sustain operations, and preserve the flow of global commerce.

The post Why Maritime Cybersecurity Is Becoming an Operational Priority appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Cybersecurity Has Become a Core Logistics Operating Requirement

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Executive thesis. Cybersecurity has become a logistics operating requirement because digital failure now creates physical consequences. Warehouses, fleets, transportation networks, cloud applications, and partner connections all sit inside the operational attack surface.

Digital failure now creates physical consequences

Logistics operations depend on identity systems, cloud applications, warehouse controls, telematics, partner connections, carrier networks, APIs, and automated decision services. A cyber incident can therefore stop more than data processing. It can prevent work release, disrupt picking, disable visibility, interrupt dispatch, block partner communication, and force physical operations into degraded modes.

The security boundary extends beyond the enterprise

Transportation carriers, brokers, suppliers, robotics providers, cloud vendors, integration platforms, and other third parties participate in the operating environment. Their credentials, interfaces, devices, and support paths create dependencies that conventional perimeter thinking does not capture. Logistics cybersecurity has to account for the extended operational ecosystem.

Warehouse OT and telematics require operational thinking

Cyber controls cannot be designed without understanding the physical process they protect. Warehouse automation, vehicle systems, and edge devices may have different patching constraints, availability requirements, and recovery procedures than office IT. Security decisions need to preserve safety and continuity as well as confidentiality and data integrity.

Fallback is part of cybersecurity

A resilient operation needs to know how work continues when a critical digital service is unavailable or untrusted. That may involve manual dispatch, alternate communications, offline picking procedures, controlled order holds, backup identities, or predefined recovery priorities. A backup that has never been restored and a manual process that has never been exercised are not reliable controls.

Recovery should be measured operationally

Cybersecurity metrics should include the ability to restore critical logistics capabilities, not only the number of vulnerabilities closed. Time to isolate, time to recover, transaction reconciliation, backlog clearance, and the safe return to automated operation are supply chain performance measures during a cyber event.

The Logistics Viewpoints Cybersecurity in Logistics: A Practical Guide translates cybersecurity into logistics operations across identity, cloud applications, warehouse OT, telematics, third parties, backups, fallback, and recovery.

Executive implication

Cyber resilience should be measured by continuity and recovery of logistics operations, including degraded-mode procedures and manual fallback—not by security controls in isolation.

Go deeper: provides the durable buyer, architecture, and implementation reference for this topic. Risk, Resilience & Security connects this analysis to the broader Logistics Viewpoints research architecture.

Related Logistics Viewpoints research

Download Cyber Resilience in the Supply Chain
Cybersecurity in Supply Chains

Go Deeper

Read the full Cybersecurity in Logistics: A Practical Guide.

Explore the broader Risk, Resilience & Security domain for related Logistics Viewpoints research and analysis.

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