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The 2025 Trade War Impact on Small Businesses: Rising Costs and an Uncertain Future

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The 2025 Trade War Impact on Small Businesses: Rising Costs and an Uncertain Future

September 10, 2025

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SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS: Nearly 3/4 of small importers report significant cost increases from tariffs, with half reducing shipments entirely. 44% face cost spikes of 20%+ while 52% expect weaker holiday sales, according to a new Freightos/Clearit survey of 390+ North American businesses.

This snapshot reveals just the surface of how deeply the ongoing trade tensions are affecting small and medium-sized businesses. As tariff policies become clearer, the outlook grows increasingly concerning for these companies. Below, we explore the comprehensive findings from our latest survey and what they mean for businesses navigating the uncertain trade landscape in 2025.

Businesses Under Pressure: The Widening Effects of Trade Disruption

A recent Freightos/Clearit survey of 390+ North American importers paints a concerning picture of the trade war’s ongoing impact on businesses. Companies are feeling the squeeze, with significant disruptions to their operations so far this year. And now that tariff policies are becoming clearer, the outlook on costs and sales is increasingly worrying, as most respondents believe the worst may be yet to come.

72% of businesses reported moderate to significant increases in landed costs and nearly 50% have reduced shipping activity due to tariffs already in place; over half expect weaker sales as a result. Importers say the 90-day extension of 30% US tariffs on China will not lead to a significant freight rebound this year for several reasons, including earlier frontloading and the status quo already pricing some shippers out.

The findings suggest broader economic consequences, including:

Diminished international trade relationships

Decreased consumer strength

Potentially existential threats for some businesses, especially SMBs

One importer summed it up as follows: “The tariffs combined with the sinking value of the dollar have created a 30% increase in costs just in a few months. Devastating to our bottom line.”

Note that this survey is the third in a series of surveys conducted across small importers. For previous versions, please see here and here.

Tariff Business Impact: Costs Rising, Shipments Falling

This year has been punctuated by tariff announcements including the “Liberation Day” 10 % universal tariff on April 5, country-specific reciprocal tariffs that were announced on April 2 and later paused twice, first until July 8, then again until August 7, when they finally went live. Many of these announcements were provided with what businesses felt were insufficient warning, leading to uncertainty.

Clarity…and Concern

Now, as recent trade agreements and additional sectoral tariffs are clearer, most (56%) businesses report more concern about negative impacts than they had due to earlier tariff changes.

This worry for the future is particularly striking when taking into account how dramatically their businesses have already been impacted:

Widespread disruption: 84% said frequent tariff changes have been disruptive or very disruptive to business.

Substantial cost increases: 72% reported that tariffs have already increased their costs by at least 5%. A shocking 44% say costs have climbed by 20% or more.

Reduced shipping: This has already led to reduced import volumes from small businesses; 50% of businesses have reduced shipment volumes due to higher costs.

Growing concern: 57% are more concerned about tariffs negatively impacting their business than they were earlier in the year. For comparison, when we asked this question in May, only 31% were more concerned than they were earlier in the year.

Consumer weakness: Concern about the downfunnel impact of weaker demand is growing. Slightly more than half (52%) expected weaker back-to-school and holiday sales than last year, compared to only 35% who had expected lower Memorial Day sales due to tariffs when asked back in May.

International standing: Whether the tariffs are removed or not, there could be long-lasting consequences. Some 60% think the trade war has weakened the standing of US businesses as trading partners.

How am I supposed to stay in business if I have $400 tariffs and fees on a $700 order that the client won’t pay?”

– Small importer reporting 20%+ cost increases

Freight Impact: Scrambling for Strategy

Rapid changes are also sending shippers scrambling for strategies to help mitigate the trade war’s impact, taking action such as accelerating orders, changing production centers, or even cancelling. Beyond the 50% who have reduced shipment volumes due to higher costs, about 15% each have:

Pulled holiday orders forward

Paused or delayed holiday orders

Canceled manufacturing mid-order

Moved some sourcing to US

We paused for a period of time when [tariffs were] initially announced. Now we feel there is some stability with the pauses being extended, but before that the uncertainty was so high that we decided to wait to see what would happen.

– Furniture importer

Adapting to these changes has not been one-size-fits-all – businesses are reaching for anything that works to manage the unpredictability.

90-Day China Tariff Extension: Limited Relief

In May and June, the initial postponement of China tariffs led to a brief spike in shipments, as importers accelerated their shipments to beat the tariffs. This front-loading, however, was quite short-lived, as demonstrated in the chart below:

The recent postponement did not have a similar effect.

While some importers said the recent extension of the 30% US tariff on Chinese imports is allowing them to restart shipments, overall, the extension is not triggering a second peak season wave. Instead, it’s having diverse effects on different businesses:

Many are unaffected due to prior frontloading or because sectoral tariffs are a bigger challenge

Others expected the 30% to remain in place and have continued shipping as usual

Some are already priced out by 30% baseline tariffs

As one importer said: “We had to buy more than usual while we could get product at a lower price. 2025 costs will be higher than usual with a greater risk of deadstock”

Another described uncertainty that prompted them to restructure their entire supply chain: “Most if not all my importing has moved out of China. I’m too worried tariffs could switch from one day to the next even though there is a 90-day extension.”

Analysis and Going Forward

The survey results paint a picture of businesses caught in an economic crossfire, with potential ripple effects that could reshape supply chains and trade relationships for years to come.

Long Term Structural Changes Ahead

“The survey shows that the trade war has already negatively impacted many US importers, and that expectations of new or expanded tariffs and the duties applied under the trade deals of the last few weeks has shippers bracing for possibly more severe challenges to business moving forward,” says Judah Levine, Freightos Head of Research. The data suggests we’re witnessing not just temporary disruption but potentially long-term structural changes to international sourcing and pricing strategies.

Impossible To Forecast or Plan

Adam Lewis, President of Clearit Customs points to the particularly hard hit SMBs have taken: “With still so much uncertainty in the trade environment, this survey makes one thing clear: Unfortunately, small and medium sized businesses are bearing the brunt of the trade war. Unlike larger corporations, they don’t have the same insulation or sophistication to absorb frequent tariff changes, currency swings, and rising costs. The unknowns have been the most damaging, making it nearly impossible to forecast, budget, or protect margins.”

Looking ahead, the trade landscape could continue to stabilize in coming months with more agreements reaching finalization. However, the combination of disrupted supply chains, weakened consumer sentiment, and eroded international relationships creates a challenging environment that will likely require businesses to maintain flexibility in sourcing, pricing, and inventory management for the foreseeable future.

Devorah Wolf

Content Marketing Lead

When freight gets complicated, Devorah Wolf, Freightos’ digital freight aficionado, swoops in to clarify the nitty-gritty of global trade with blogs, guides, videos, and newsletters for every shipper – from beginner to expert. She’s so excited about shipping that most of her clothing is imported. But in freight’s defense, that’s basically true about everyone.

Put the Data in Data-Backed Decision Making

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The post The 2025 Trade War Impact on Small Businesses: Rising Costs and an Uncertain Future appeared first on Freightos.

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SAP Is Expanding the Definition of Transportation Management

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Transportation management has traditionally been treated as a fairly well-defined software category. Bring transportation demand into the system, optimize loads, select carriers, tender freight, track execution, settle invoices, and measure performance.

SAP’s latest transportation management briefing points toward something broader.

The company is no longer presenting transportation simply as a stand-alone planning application. It is increasingly assembling a tiered logistics execution architecture, with SAP Transportation Management handling sophisticated transportation operations, Business Network for Logistics connecting execution to carriers and other external partners, SAP Logistics Management addressing simpler sites and distribution operations, and Joule beginning to coordinate decisions across those layers.

That is a more consequential shift than simply adding another collection of TMS features.

SAP TM remains the advanced transportation engine

SAP Transportation Management remains the center of the portfolio for complex transportation operations. The platform spans order management, transportation planning, execution, charge management, freight settlement, analytics, strategic freight management, and essentially every major transportation mode other than pipeline.

But the interesting part of SAP’s strategy is increasingly what happens around that transportation engine.

A transportation plan does not exist in isolation. It affects warehouse labor, dock capacity, inventory availability, customer commitments, carrier operations, global trade requirements, dangerous-goods restrictions, and ultimately financial settlement.

SAP continues to tighten those connections.

The company highlighted further development of Advanced Shipping and Receiving, which links transportation and warehouse execution more closely, along with capabilities including ad hoc loading, rules-based loading, improved process reversals, requirements grouping, and tighter integration between Transportation Management and Extended Warehouse Management.

The objective is straightforward: an optimal transportation plan is not particularly useful if the warehouse cannot execute it.

That sounds obvious. Architecturally, however, it is one of the more important issues facing logistics technology.

The network is increasingly part of the transportation system

SAP is also treating external collaboration as an integral part of transportation execution.

Business Network for Logistics provides connectivity for carrier tendering, appointments, freight invoices, shipment visibility, fleet information, milestone events, alerts, and emissions information. SAP also continues to support different levels of carrier sophistication, from APIs and EDI to web portals for smaller transportation providers.

This matters because transportation is inherently an inter-enterprise process.

The most sophisticated optimization engine in the world still has limited value if the resulting plan cannot be communicated, accepted, monitored, and adjusted across carriers, suppliers, warehouses, and customers.

For SAP, the carrier network is therefore becoming less of an adjacent capability and more of an execution layer around the TMS.

SAP Logistics Management fills an important gap

The most strategically interesting part of the briefing may have been SAP Logistics Management.

SAP acknowledged a problem that exists across many enterprise logistics environments: not every facility needs a full enterprise TMS.

A multinational organization may operate several highly complex distribution centers that require advanced optimization, international transportation management, and sophisticated freight settlement. That same company may also operate dozens or hundreds of smaller facilities performing relatively straightforward local distribution.

Deploying the same heavyweight architecture everywhere can become unnecessary complexity.

SAP Logistics Management is intended to address those simpler-to-moderate transportation and warehouse scenarios. SAP specifically discussed local distribution sites, regional fulfillment operations, and other facilities where a full TM implementation may be more capability than the operation requires.

This gives SAP the beginnings of a much more interesting portfolio structure:

advanced transportation where complexity requires it, lighter execution where it does not, and a common logistics architecture connecting the two.

For large enterprises with highly uneven operational complexity, that could be a meaningful proposition.

Joule is moving from interface to execution

AI was inevitably a major theme of the briefing, but the more important development is how SAP is changing the role of Joule.

The first generation of generative AI in transportation largely involved conversational access to information. A planner might ask the system to locate certain freight orders, identify unplanned demand, or retrieve transportation information using natural language.

SAP is now moving toward transactional interaction.

One example discussed in the briefing was the ability to tell Joule that a carrier has experienced a truck failure and then instruct the system to change the carrier across the affected freight orders.

The roadmap moves further toward agentic execution.

SAP described agents for predictive logistics insights, consignment-order processing, freight invoice analysis, and tendering and subcontracting optimization. The predictive logistics capability is intended to monitor events, identify potential disruption, recommend responses, and potentially trigger rerouting or other adjustments before service deteriorates.

The operating model begins to look less like:

event → dashboard → planner

and more like:

event → context → decision → recommendation → execution

That is where agentic AI becomes relevant to logistics.

The challenge will be governance. SAP emphasized that its agents operate within underlying application processes and controls, with humans remaining involved when confidence is insufficient or a consequential transaction requires validation.

That is the right boundary to watch as the technology develops.

TMS is becoming part of a larger execution architecture

The broader implication extends beyond SAP.

Transportation management is gradually becoming less of an isolated application category and more of a layer within a connected logistics execution system.

TMS still matters. Optimization still matters. Carrier selection, routing, freight settlement, and execution discipline still matter.

But increasingly the competitive question will be how effectively transportation connects to warehouse operations, carrier networks, enterprise data, visibility, and automated decision-making.

SAP’s emerging architecture reflects that shift. Transportation Management provides the advanced engine. Business Network for Logistics extends execution outside the enterprise. Logistics Management addresses lower-complexity operations. Joule and the emerging agent layer begin to coordinate decisions across the environment.

SAP is also continuing to develop the underlying operational platform rather than treating AI as a substitute for conventional product investment, with further work planned around integrated planning, public-cloud logistics integration, freight settlement, and industry-specific capabilities.

The next generation of transportation management will therefore not be defined simply by who can calculate the lowest-cost load.

It will increasingly be defined by how quickly the logistics system can sense what changed, understand its operational significance, determine the best response, coordinate that response across transportation and warehouse operations, and execute it across the broader logistics network.

SAP is building its transportation portfolio around that much larger definition.

The post SAP Is Expanding the Definition of Transportation Management appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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NVIDIA’s $96 Billion Quarter Is Also a Supply Chain Story

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NVIDIA reported another extraordinary quarter Wednesday. Revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago, while Data Center revenue climbed to $89 billion, up 117%. The company expects roughly $108 billion in third-quarter revenue and now sees revenue growing about 70% in its next fiscal year.

Those numbers understandably dominate the headlines.

But there is another number in NVIDIA’s results that may be even more interesting from a logistics and supply chain perspective: $279 billion.

That is the amount NVIDIA has committed to future supply and capacity, up from $119 billion just three months ago. According to the company’s CFO commentary, the increase is primarily related to securing memory and other critical components needed to meet expected demand over the next several years.

That makes NVIDIA’s earnings more than an AI story.

They are also a case study in what happens when extraordinary demand runs into constrained industrial capacity.

AI Is Becoming Physical Infrastructure

The first phase of generative AI was dominated by model training, experimentation and software.

The next phase looks considerably more physical.

NVIDIA is now talking about AI factories, gigascale computing facilities, large-scale networking, power, memory, data-center capacity, agents and physical AI. Vera Rubin is moving into full production, and the company has announced partnerships intended to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for additional AI infrastructure.

AWS and NVIDIA also announced an expansion involving 2 million additional GPUs, another indication of the scale at which computing infrastructure is now being deployed.

For logistics executives, this changes how AI should be viewed.

AI may appear virtual when somebody enters a prompt into a browser, but the infrastructure behind that prompt is increasingly industrial. It requires semiconductor fabrication, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, networking equipment, power systems, cooling equipment, servers and enormous data-center construction programs.

All of that has to be sourced, manufactured, transported and installed.

NVIDIA Is Locking Down Its Supply Chain

The scale of NVIDIA’s commitments is striking.

The company had $279 billion in future supply and capacity commitments at the end of the quarter. Approximately $267 billion of that is scheduled within the next three fiscal years. NVIDIA expects about $92 billion of supply commitments during the remainder of the current fiscal year, followed by $87 billion and $88 billion in the following two years.

The principal issue is memory.

High-bandwidth memory has become one of the critical inputs into advanced AI systems, and NVIDIA is effectively reserving capacity well ahead of demand.

This is a familiar supply-chain response to constrained capacity: secure the bottleneck before someone else does.

What is unusual is the scale.

NVIDIA is making commitments measured in hundreds of billions of dollars because the company believes the larger risk is not excess inventory. It is being unable to satisfy demand.

That is an important distinction.

When supply becomes the constraint, procurement stops being primarily a cost-management function. It becomes a growth-enablement function.

The Trade-Off Is Showing Up in Margins

Securing supply does not come free.

NVIDIA reported a 75% gross margin in the quarter but expects approximately 74% in the current quarter. Management has also warned that higher memory costs will create additional margin pressure before pricing and supply conditions begin to catch up.

That is another useful supply-chain lesson.

A company can have enormous demand and still face deteriorating economics if critical inputs become scarce.

In NVIDIA’s case, management appears willing to tolerate some margin pressure to ensure that it can continue shipping systems into a market where demand remains greater than available capacity.

That is not particularly different from what manufacturers, retailers and logistics operators learned during the pandemic.

The difference is that this time the constrained commodity happens to be some of the most advanced technology in the world.

From Compute to Operational AI

The second logistics implication is downstream.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described AI as having reached an inflection point where it is doing useful work rather than simply being trained. NVIDIA is consequently shifting more attention toward inference, agents, robotics and physical AI.

That matters because logistics is an execution environment.

A transportation operation does not ultimately need an AI system that tells a planner that a shipment will be late. It needs a system capable of understanding the implications, evaluating alternatives and determining what should happen next.

The same is true in a warehouse. Identifying congestion is useful. Changing labor allocations, equipment priorities or order sequences in response is much more valuable.

That requires continuous inference and increasingly tight connections between software intelligence and physical systems.

Physical AI Moves Toward Logistics

NVIDIA is making a major push into what it calls physical AI: systems that perceive, reason about and act within the physical world.

Its recent announcements include robotics platforms, autonomous-vehicle technology, safety systems and agent tools designed for physical AI applications.

Warehouses are an obvious environment for this technology.

Autonomous mobile robots, robotic picking, machine vision, automated storage systems and increasingly sophisticated orchestration platforms are already common. The next stage is making these systems more adaptive.

A robot needs to interpret changing physical conditions. An orchestration layer needs to understand orders, inventory and equipment availability. Transportation systems need to reconcile constantly changing physical conditions with customer commitments.

That requires a great deal of compute.

NVIDIA’s infrastructure buildout is therefore not disconnected from logistics automation. It is one of the upstream enablers.

Agentic AI Raises the Architecture Question

There is also a third implication.

NVIDIA is explicitly positioning new infrastructure around AI agents. Its Vera CPU, for example, is being marketed as a processor designed for agentic workloads.

In logistics, that could eventually mean software agents operating across transportation, warehousing, inventory and order management.

A transportation agent might identify an inbound delay. An inventory agent could calculate the resulting exposure. A warehouse agent could adjust receiving priorities. An order-management system could evaluate customer commitments.

The value comes when these systems can coordinate.

That requires more than GPUs. It requires trusted data, operational context, retrieval, interoperability and an understanding of the relationships among shipments, orders, facilities, products and customers. Those are precisely the architectural issues behind agent-to-agent communication, context management, RAG and graph-based reasoning.

The Bigger Logistics Lesson

NVIDIA’s quarter says something larger than “AI demand remains strong.”

It shows what happens when a software-driven technology transition becomes an infrastructure cycle.

Supply availability becomes strategic. Capacity gets reserved years in advance. Component shortages affect margins. Financing becomes intertwined with infrastructure development. And the physical supply chain becomes as important as the algorithms running on top of it.

NVIDIA’s $279 billion supply commitment may therefore be one of the most revealing numbers in the entire earnings release.

The company is effectively betting that the greater risk is not building too much AI infrastructure.

It is failing to build enough.

For logistics leaders, that is worth watching closely. The AI revolution is beginning to look considerably less virtual.

It increasingly looks like factories, components, power, warehouses, transportation and capacity.

In other words, it looks a lot like a supply chain.

The post NVIDIA’s $96 Billion Quarter Is Also a Supply Chain Story appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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The Supply Chain Operating Model After AI

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For the past several years, the enterprise AI discussion has focused heavily on capability. Can a model forecast more accurately, summarize information, identify an exception, write code, reason through a problem, or operate an agent? Those questions mattered because the technology was new, but they are no longer sufficient for understanding what AI may do to supply chain management.

The more important question is what happens to the operating model when intelligence becomes inexpensive, agents become capable of action, workflows cross application boundaries, and machines receive bounded decision rights. The preceding ideas in this sequence point toward a supply chain that is not simply more automated, but organized differently around the relationship between people, software, and physical operations.

Intelligence Moves from Scarce Resource to Operating Utility

The starting point is the declining marginal cost of intelligence. For most of supply chain history, analytical attention had to be rationed because people could investigate only a limited number of problems. Organizations built thresholds, exception reports, meetings, and functional teams around that constraint.

AI weakens the constraint without removing the need for judgment. More events can be analyzed continuously, but value depends on the context surrounding the model and on the organization’s ability to convert the result into action. This is why the shift toward an intelligence layer above ERP, TMS, and WMS matters less as a new user interface than as a new operating layer.

Coordination Becomes More Valuable Than Isolated Intelligence

The first argument in this sequence was the coordination premium. As each function gains more capable systems and agents, enterprise performance depends increasingly on how those capabilities are aligned. Procurement, transportation, manufacturing, inventory, and customer service cannot be allowed to optimize independently at machine speed without a shared view of the business outcome.

This is why AI alone will not fix fragmented supply chains. The technology can increase the speed and sophistication of decisions, but organizational fragmentation can simply become software fragmentation unless objectives, data, and authority are coordinated deliberately.

The Workflow Becomes the Unit of Transformation

The execution architecture and the growing importance of the enterprise workflow shift attention away from individual applications. ERP, WMS, TMS, planning, procurement, and visibility systems remain essential, but a disruption does not belong to one application. The operating model has to follow the problem across systems until the physical supply chain changes.

This suggests that transformation programs should increasingly be organized around high-value decision workflows. Instead of asking only which application to modernize, companies can ask which cross-functional decisions create the most cost, delay, and risk, then redesign the entire path from signal to execution. Technology becomes a means of restructuring the operating flow rather than the endpoint of the program.

Time Becomes a Management Variable

The concept of decision-to-action latency makes this operating model measurable. Companies can examine the time required to detect an event, assemble context, choose an action, obtain authority, and execute the change. That gives management a way to identify where organizational delay destroys economic value.

When the long tail of decisions becomes cheap enough to examine continuously, the scale of the opportunity expands. Thousands of small inefficiencies that were previously rational to ignore can become candidates for machine attention, while people move toward decisions where ambiguity and consequence justify human involvement.

Decision Velocity Becomes Productive Capacity

The result is an operating model in which decision velocity behaves like capacity. Faster allocation, earlier intervention, and shorter approval cycles increase the productive use of inventory, transportation, warehouse resources, labor, and manufacturing assets. A company can therefore improve effective capacity without necessarily adding the same amount of physical capacity.

This does not make physical constraints disappear. It means organizational latency becomes a more visible share of the constraint once intelligence and execution become faster. The competitive advantage shifts toward companies that can preserve optionality and act before an operational problem becomes expensive.

Autonomy Becomes Deliberately Allocated

That speed cannot come from indiscriminate automation. The governance framework developed through reversibility and machine decision rights provides a way to allocate authority by decision class. Routine, reversible, well-understood decisions can receive greater autonomy, while high-consequence and ambiguous choices remain under stronger human control.

This is a more useful objective than pursuing a fully autonomous supply chain. The goal is appropriate autonomy: the right entity, human or machine, making the right class of decision with the right context and controls. Over time, authority can expand where performance demonstrates that the system deserves it.

The Human Role Changes, but It Does Not Disappear

In this operating model, people increasingly define objectives, negotiate tradeoffs, handle novel situations, design guardrails, manage relationships, and evaluate system performance. Machines increasingly monitor conditions, assemble context, investigate routine exceptions, prepare actions, execute bounded workflows, and learn from outcomes. The division of labor moves according to comparative advantage rather than a simplistic automation target.

This resembles the operating-model redesign I discussed in Meta and Standard Chartered Signal AI’s Next Phase: Operating Model Redesign. The larger transformation occurs when organizations stop inserting AI into existing work and begin redesigning the work around capabilities that did not previously exist. Supply chain management is approaching that point.

From Software Users to System Designers

Perhaps the biggest change for supply chain leaders is that they increasingly become designers of decision systems. They have to decide what outcomes matter, how competing objectives are reconciled, where machines can act, when people must intervene, and how the entire system learns. Those responsibilities sit above any individual application or AI model.

The emerging supply chain operating model is therefore not defined by one technology. That is why a technology strategy rather than technology noise matters: the value comes from fitting capabilities into a coherent operating design rather than accumulating disconnected AI tools. It is the combination of cheap intelligence, rich context, coordinated objectives, cross-application workflows, execution architecture, reduced decision latency, continuous machine attention, and deliberately governed autonomy. Companies that assemble those pieces coherently will have an advantage that cannot be purchased simply by licensing the same model as everyone else.

The Real Transition

For years, supply chain technology promised better visibility, better planning, better analytics, and better automation. The next stage is to connect those capabilities into an operating system that can move from signal to decision to action with far less friction. That is a change in management architecture as much as technology architecture.

The supply chain after AI will still contain people, software, warehouses, trucks, factories, suppliers, customers, and uncertainty. What changes is the speed and structure through which those elements coordinate. The competitive question will increasingly be not who has the smartest model, but who has built the better operating model around intelligence.

The post The Supply Chain Operating Model After AI appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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