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Blanks keep rates level; no de minimis air rate collapse yet; US-Houthi truce first step to Red Sea return? – May 7, 2025 Update

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Blanks keep rates level; no de minimis air rate collapse yet; US-Houthi truce first step to Red Sea return? – May 7, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

May 7, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) stayed level at $2,321/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level at $3,386/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 3% to $2,261/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 2% to $3,027/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 5% to $5.28/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 6% to $3.49/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 5% to $1.91/kg.

Analysis

US tariffs on China – introduced and then quickly raised to 145% in early April – are already causing pain to the US logistics market and to shippers whose first goods subject to these tariffs are starting to arrive at US ports.

The tariff hike has driven a sharp drop in China – US container flows with manufacturing in China also being negatively impacted. And even with a 90-day tariff pause for many other US trading partners and the US’s recent easing of terms for auto tariffs, some countries, like Taiwan and Korea where automotive goods make up a significant share of exports to the US, are seeing manufacturing take a hit as well.

Many US importers have paused orders out of China, but shippers (as well as manufacturers) can hold out only so long before consumers will start to see empty shelves or higher prices.

There are reports that some major US retailers have already restarted ordering from China, either out of necessity or anticipation that tariff levels will be lower by the time of arrival as the US and China get closer to direct negotiations. In any case, the reduction in US sourcing from China for the last few weeks will start to be felt soon in fewer May container ship arrivals and lower import volumes.

The pause is also raising concerns over what will happen if US tariffs on China are reduced and volumes quickly rebound. The longer the pause the more disruptive the potential surge – in the form of increased container rates and possible congestion – might be.

In the meantime, the White House continues to express interest in negotiations that would reduce tariffs on a long list of trading partners before the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs ends in July, with the European Union being asked, for example, to buy more US goods as part of their deal.

Despite dropping volumes out of China and some increase in demand out of other countries like Vietnam, transpacific container rates were level this week as carriers have successfully reduced capacity to current volume levels through a significant number of blanked sailings and service adjustments.

Despite persistent congestion at several major container hubs in Europe which typically puts upward pressure on container rates, Asia – Europe spot prices dipped slightly last week, possibly due to an increase in capacity as carriers shift transpacific vessels to these lanes.

Carriers are moving now-excess transpacific capacity to other trades like the transatlantic and Middle East too, which could further complicate a smooth restart of China – US volumes as vessels will be out of position.

With the current capacity management measures in place, despite the recent trade war induced volatility, carriers have succeeded in keeping rates about 50% higher than in 2019 on the major lanes with Red Sea diversions also helping to absorb capacity. But even so, rates on these trades are around 30% lower than last year due to fleet growth and increased competition between the recently launched carrier alliances.

Though a rapid return of container traffic to the Red Sea in the near future is probably still unlikely, President Trump’s announcement yesterday that the US reached a ceasefire deal with the Houthis is the most significant change to the status quo since the group pledged to only target Israeli ships during the Israel-Hamas ceasefire early this year. Houthi statements indicate they will cease targeting US vessels as long the US holds off attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen, but they promise to continue attacks on Israel and it is unclear what all this means for vessels from other countries.

Container carriers won’t return to the Suez until there is clarity and they feel assured of safe passage, but when they do resume traffic on this lane the shorter voyage will – after an adjustment period – release a significant amount of capacity back into the market, increasing the prospect that carriers will face oversupply and strong downward pressure on rates.

Following the US’s suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods last week, Temu announced it will no longer ship goods directly from China to US customers. This move implies a significant shift away from air cargo for China-US e-commerce and to ocean freight and domestic fulfillment in an effort to avoid tariffs as long as possible, reduce costs from air cargo, or shift the tariff burden to domestic sellers.

The B2C e-commerce shift away from air cargo has resulted in a sharp drop in China – US air volumes – as much as two million kilo per day – reflected in a 30% capacity decrease since the suspension. But as e-commerce shipments from these platforms traveled mostly in chartered freighters, as charter and other capacity is being removed from this lane, and as spot demand from other sectors – like many electronics exempt from tariffs for now – may still be relatively strong, spot rates have yet to collapse.

Freightos Air Index China – US rates eased only 5% last week to a still well above normal $5.28/kg. And as Temu and Shein shift some of their focus to other markets, carriers have started moving capacity to other lanes as well. This capacity shift may partly explain China – Europe rates falling to less than $3.50/kg last week, their lowest level since early March. Transatlantic rates of $1.90/kg are more than 20% lower than in late March, possibly from capacity additions as well.

Sebastien Podgorski, VP of Airline Solutions at WebCargo by Freightos, explains that since the lion’s share of the e-commerce effect was felt by charterers, many carriers are actually reporting a recent bump in volumes overall, driven partly by an ocean to air shift from shippers looking to beat tariff roll outs.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Logistics Viewpoints Is Refocusing on Logistics

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Logistics Viewpoints is getting back to its roots.

Going forward, we are putting more emphasis on logistics and less on trying to cover the entire supply chain.

That may sound like a small distinction. It isn’t.

Supply chain has become an enormous umbrella. It can include sourcing, procurement, manufacturing, planning, inventory, logistics, sustainability, risk, technology, and almost anything that happens between a supplier and a customer.

There is plenty to write about there. But trying to cover all of it can also make it harder for a publication to have a clear point of view.

Logistics gives us that focus.

What We Mean by Logistics

For Logistics Viewpoints, the center of gravity will be the movement and storage of goods and the systems required to make that happen.

That means transportation, warehousing, distribution, fulfillment, automation, robotics, visibility, global logistics, logistics technology, and execution.

It also means we will continue writing quite a bit about AI, data, digital twins, agents, and decision intelligence. But the question will be what those technologies actually mean for logistics.

How does AI change transportation planning or execution?

What happens when warehouse systems can coordinate robots, people, inventory, and material-handling equipment in real time?

Can better visibility actually change a decision before it is too late to do anything about it?

Where can software act on its own, and where should a person remain in the loop?

Those are logistics questions.

This Doesn’t Mean Supply Chain Disappears

There is obviously no clean wall between logistics and the rest of the supply chain.

Inventory decisions affect transportation. Manufacturing decisions affect warehouses and distribution networks. Sourcing changes freight flows. Planning determines what logistics eventually has to execute.

So we aren’t going to stop using the term “supply chain,” and we aren’t going back through years of Logistics Viewpoints articles changing old terminology.

The distinction is more practical.

If a broader supply chain development has a meaningful logistics consequence, we will cover it. If it doesn’t, we don’t necessarily need to.

That gives us a fairly simple editorial test: Where is the logistics story?

The Site Will Change With the Focus

We’re also going through Logistics Viewpoints itself to make sure the site reflects that direction.

Some of the language has gradually become broader over the years. The homepage, About page, Topics pages, newsletter language, navigation, and several other areas still describe LV largely in supply chain terms.

Those will change.

For example, “Independent Intelligence for Supply Chain Leaders” becomes “Independent Intelligence for Logistics Leaders.”

The topics we emphasize will also become more clearly organized around transportation, warehousing, fulfillment, automation, visibility and orchestration, global logistics and trade, logistics technology and AI, and logistics risk and resilience.

ARC Advisory Group will, of course, continue to conduct research across the broader supply chain and industrial technology markets. This change is about giving Logistics Viewpoints a sharper editorial identity, not narrowing ARC’s research coverage.

Two New Series Help Set the Direction

We are also launching two substantial series that reflect where we want to take the publication.

The first is Systems Engineering in Logistics, a 16-part series.

One of the problems with logistics transformation is that companies can approach transportation, warehousing, automation, software, data, and AI as separate projects. But they all eventually have to work together.

The series looks at logistics as a system.

It starts with requirements and operating models and works through process and data architecture, technology selection, AI, digital twins, automation, testing, resilience, and lifecycle management.

The basic idea is simple: before optimizing another piece of logistics, make sure we understand the system we are changing.

The second series is The New Architecture of Logistics, with 10 articles looking at what that system is becoming.

We’ll examine why logistics increasingly looks like an operating system, why the traditional boundary between transportation and warehousing is weakening, the emergence of a logistics control layer, increasingly orchestrated warehouses, computational transportation, the changing economics of visibility, AI agents, decision velocity, and eventually more autonomous logistics operations.

The two series approach the subject from different directions.

Systems Engineering in Logistics is about how we design the system.

The New Architecture of Logistics is about what the system is becoming.

Back to Logistics

Logistics itself is becoming a much bigger technology story.

Warehouses are becoming more automated. Transportation systems are becoming more dynamic. Physical assets are becoming easier for software to observe. AI is moving closer to execution. Decisions that once took hours can increasingly be made in minutes or seconds.

At the same time, none of the physical realities have disappeared. Trucks still have to arrive. Trailers still have to be loaded. Inventory still has to be in the right place. Orders still have to get out the door.

That intersection between the physical world and increasingly intelligent technology is where Logistics Viewpoints has a lot to say.

So the change is not about making LV smaller.

It is about making it clearer what we are here to cover.

Logistics.

The post Logistics Viewpoints Is Refocusing on Logistics appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Why Most B2B Webinars Fail to Reach Executives

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Most B2B webinars do not fail because they lack registrations. They fail because they do not create enough executive relevance.

A webinar can attract a respectable audience, generate leads, and still make little impression on the senior decision-makers a technology supplier actually wants to influence. The problem is often not promotion or production quality. It is the design of the conversation.

In the latest Logistics Viewpoints Podcast, we look at why issue-first webinar design, analyst-led moderation, and market-focused discussion often outperform traditional product-centric presentations—especially in complex logistics and enterprise technology markets.

Executives Do Not Attend Webinars for Product Tours

The conventional B2B webinar usually begins with the supplier.

Here is our company. Here is our platform. Here are the capabilities. Here is a customer example.

That format can work when prospects are already evaluating a specific solution. It is much less effective when the goal is executive engagement or thought leadership.

Senior executives are usually thinking about larger operating questions: cost, service, resilience, labor, customer expectations, technology risk, capital allocation, and how their operating model needs to change.

A better webinar starts there.

The most important opening question is not:

What does our product do?

It is:

What important problem is changing in the market, and what does an executive need to understand about it?

That shift changes the entire discussion.

Start With the Issue, Not the Solution

An issue-first webinar begins with a problem that matters even if the sponsor’s product is never mentioned.

In logistics, that could be warehouse automation, transportation volatility, decision latency, AI agents, visibility economics, labor constraints, or the convergence of transportation and warehouse execution.

The discussion can then explore what is changing, why it matters, where conventional approaches fall short, and what executives should be thinking about next.

Technology still belongs in the conversation. But it enters as part of the answer rather than as the premise.

That creates a different relationship with the audience.

Instead of asking an executive to spend 45 minutes learning about a vendor, you are offering 45 minutes of useful perspective on a problem that executive already has.

Analyst-Led Moderation Raises the Value

A strong moderator should do more than introduce speakers and move through prepared questions.

The moderator should represent the audience.

That means asking the questions an informed customer would ask, challenging broad claims, drawing distinctions between approaches, and pushing the discussion away from features and toward operating consequences.

An analyst can also provide market context.

If a supplier says customers are increasingly asking for a capability, the moderator can explore why. What changed? Is this isolated or part of a broader shift? What business problem is driving demand? What barriers remain?

The supplier still gets to demonstrate expertise. In many cases, it demonstrates more expertise than it would in a conventional presentation because the value comes through the quality of the thinking.

Credibility Is Part of Webinar ROI

Enterprise technology purchases are rarely driven by a single interaction.

Decision-makers form impressions over time.

Does this company understand my industry? Does it understand the problem beyond its own product? Are its executives credible? Does the company have something useful to say when it is not directly selling?

A strong webinar can influence those perceptions.

That means webinar ROI should not be measured only by registrations, attendance, marketing-qualified leads, or immediate meetings.

Those metrics matter. But executive webinars can also build market credibility.

In long, complex enterprise sales cycles, that credibility can be strategically important even when it is difficult to capture in a lead-generation dashboard.

Do Not Make One Webinar Do Everything

Another common mistake is trying to make a single webinar generate leads, demonstrate the product, educate the market, create thought leadership, produce sales meetings, and satisfy every stakeholder at once.

Those goals can conflict.

A webinar optimized aggressively for immediate lead conversion can become too promotional to attract or retain the senior audience that makes the program valuable.

A better objective is simpler:

Create a conversation worth an executive’s time.

Demand generation can follow.

Build a Content Asset, Not a One-Time Event

A substantive webinar can also become much more than the live event.

A strong discussion can support a podcast episode, article, video clips, social posts, newsletter content, sales enablement material, and follow-up conversations.

That improves the economics of the program.

But repurposing only works when the original discussion contains genuine ideas. There is little value in repackaging the same sales presentation six different ways.

From Webinar Marketing to Market Influence

The best B2B webinars do not begin by asking how quickly they can get to the product.

They begin by identifying an important market issue, framing it around the decisions executives are facing, and creating a discussion that offers useful perspective.

For companies selling complex logistics and enterprise technology, that is where webinars can become more than another demand-generation tactic.

They can build credibility, shape market perception, and establish the company as part of the conversation about where logistics is going.

That is a much higher bar than generating registrations.

It is also a much more valuable one.

Watch the latest Logistics Viewpoints Podcast episode above to explore the full discussion on issue-first webinar design, executive engagement, analyst-led moderation, and improving B2B webinar ROI.

The post Why Most B2B Webinars Fail to Reach Executives appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Logistics Is Becoming Reconfigurable

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Logistics optimization has traditionally been built around a relatively stable operating network. Transportation managers optimize modes and routes, warehouse operators optimize labor and throughput, and distribution teams position inventory against expected demand. Conditions change, but the underlying logistics architecture has generally been stable enough to optimize around it.

That assumption is becoming harder to defend. Trade disruptions can redirect freight flows, infrastructure constraints can change viable transportation routes, warehouse demand can shift within hours, and automation is becoming capable of adapting to operating conditions in real time. The emerging logistics challenge is therefore not simply optimization. It is reconfigurability: the ability to change how goods move, where they flow, and how logistics resources are deployed while conditions are changing.

When Transportation Routes Change, the Rest of the Network Has to Follow

Recent uncertainty surrounding global shipping routes illustrates the problem. The Port of Los Angeles has been preparing for the possibility of additional cargo moving through the U.S. West Coast as shippers respond to continued Red Sea uncertainty and potential restrictions at the Panama Canal.

The port has discussed a planning scenario involving roughly 5 percent year-over-year cargo growth, while emphasizing that this is a preparedness assumption rather than a guaranteed forecast. More important than the number is the operational preparation behind it. The port has been coordinating with terminal operators, ocean carriers, trucking companies, and labor organizations to determine whether additional freight could be absorbed if global routing patterns shift.

This exposes an important weakness in the way logistics resilience is sometimes discussed. An alternate route on a network diagram is not necessarily a usable alternate route.

A port needs terminal capacity. Containers arriving at the port need chassis and drayage capacity. Inland freight requires available rail or truck capacity. Distribution centers need doors, labor, yard space, and storage capacity. Inventory arriving through a different gateway may also change lead times and downstream replenishment schedules.

The logistics network therefore cannot simply reroute the shipment. It has to understand and manage the consequences of the rerouting across the rest of the network.

That is logistics reconfigurability.

Warehouses Need to Reconfigure During the Shift

The same principle increasingly applies inside distribution centers. Warehouse operations have traditionally been planned around expected order volumes, available labor, established workflows, and known automation capacity. The problem is that those assumptions rarely remain constant throughout the operating day.

Orders arrive differently than expected. Labor availability changes. Automation throughput varies. Inbound trailers arrive early or late. Transportation schedules change. A labor plan that looked optimal at 8:00 a.m. may be badly mismatched with the operation by noon.

Warehouse technology has historically been good at measuring these differences. Labor management systems track productivity, WMS applications monitor work, and automation systems report equipment performance. The emerging opportunity is to use that information to change operations while there is still time to affect the outcome.

Warehouse labor-management and intelligence company Takt recently announced a $9.25 million Series A and says its platform supports more than 100 warehouses. Kenco has deployed the technology across 19 distribution centers, with additional expansion planned.

The performance figures associated with those deployments are company- and customer-reported, but the architectural direction is more significant. Takt says it is developing AI agents capable of rebalancing labor against live order conditions within supervisor-defined limits.

That changes the role of logistics intelligence. Instead of simply telling an operator what happened during yesterday’s shift, the system can increasingly help determine what should change during today’s shift.

The relevant metric becomes decision-to-action latency: the amount of time between detecting an operational change, determining the appropriate response, and actually changing the logistics operation.

Automation Is Becoming More Flexible

Warehouse robotics are moving in the same direction. Robot.com and Sodexo have signed a seven-year commercial agreement expanding autonomous delivery across North American campuses. The length of the agreement is notable because it suggests autonomous delivery is moving beyond short-term pilots toward longer-term logistics infrastructure.

Pudu Robotics has also introduced the MP2000 autonomous pallet-handling robot, which the company says can operate with less fixed infrastructure than earlier generations of automated forklifts. Those performance claims still need to be proven across diverse production environments, but the direction is important.

Traditional automation often required the warehouse to adapt to the automation. Facilities needed fixed infrastructure, tightly controlled workflows, dedicated operating areas, or substantial implementation work. More flexible autonomous systems potentially reverse that relationship by allowing automation to adapt more readily to the facility and changing workflows.

That matters because a highly automated warehouse is not necessarily a flexible warehouse. If changing the operation requires months of engineering and integration work, automation can actually create another form of rigidity.

The more important logistics capability is adaptable automation: technology that can be redeployed, re-tasked, or reorchestrated as volumes, products, labor requirements, and service expectations change.

Inventory Positioning Is Becoming More Dynamic

Reconfigurability also changes the role of inventory. Traditional logistics network design asks where inventory should be positioned to balance transportation costs, inventory carrying costs, and customer-service requirements. Increasingly, the answer may need to change more frequently.

A transportation disruption can make one distribution center less attractive. A demand spike can make inventory in another facility more valuable. A capacity constraint at one warehouse can shift fulfillment toward another node. Changes in delivery requirements can alter which inventory location provides the best combination of cost and service.

This creates a more dynamic fulfillment problem. The logistics system increasingly needs to determine not simply where inventory should reside in the network, but which available inventory should serve each order given current transportation capacity, warehouse conditions, service requirements, and cost.

That is where inventory visibility, transportation management, warehouse management, order management, and decision intelligence begin to converge.

From Logistics Optimization to Continuous Reoptimization

Traditional logistics optimization is essentially a constrained problem: define the orders, inventory, transportation capacity, warehouse capacity, service requirements, and costs, and determine the best way to move the freight.

The emerging problem is more difficult because the constraints themselves keep changing. A transportation lane becomes unavailable. A port becomes congested. A carrier loses capacity. Warehouse labor falls below plan. Orders shift geographically. Automation throughput changes.

The system therefore needs to find another answer and determine whether that answer can actually be executed.

That makes continuous reoptimization coupled with execution an increasingly important logistics capability. A mathematically optimal transportation plan has limited value if operations cannot implement it before conditions change again.

In many situations, the second-best logistics plan that can be executed immediately may be considerably more valuable than the theoretically optimal plan that takes days or weeks to implement.

Logistics Optionality Has Economic Value

This also changes how logistics organizations should think about redundancy. Alternate carriers, ports, warehouses, transportation modes, fulfillment nodes, labor pools, and automation capacity all cost money. Traditional efficiency programs can therefore make redundancy appear wasteful.

But those resources also create options.

An alternate carrier has value when the primary carrier lacks capacity. A second port has value when the preferred gateway becomes congested. Flexible warehouse labor has value when order volume changes. Adaptable automation has value when workflows shift.

The challenge is determining how much optionality is economically justified.

Future logistics optimization will therefore need to answer a more sophisticated question than, “What is the lowest-cost way to move this freight?”

It will increasingly need to determine: What is the lowest-cost logistics network that provides enough operational flexibility to maintain service when conditions change?

The Logistics KPI to Watch: Time to Reconfigure

Logistics organizations already measure transportation cost, warehouse productivity, inventory turns, on-time delivery, order cycle time, capacity utilization, and service performance. Another family of metrics is likely to become increasingly important: how quickly the operation can change.

How quickly can freight move to another carrier or mode? How long does it take to redirect volume through another port? How quickly can fulfillment shift between distribution centers? How rapidly can warehouse labor be rebalanced? How long does it take to redeploy automation or change a warehouse operating plan?

These measurements reveal something traditional efficiency metrics do not: the logistics network’s ability to respond while the disruption is still unfolding.

That may become particularly important as AI enters logistics execution. The value of AI will not ultimately be measured by how many recommendations a system generates. It will be measured by whether those recommendations can safely and economically change transportation, warehousing, fulfillment, inventory, and labor decisions in time to improve the outcome.

The Bottom Line

For decades, logistics excellence largely meant executing a well-designed plan as efficiently as possible. The emerging environment requires something more.

Transportation routes change. Capacity moves. Warehouse conditions change throughout the day. Inventory needs to be repositioned. Automation is becoming more adaptable, while decision systems are becoming capable of responding faster to operational changes.

The strongest logistics operations will therefore not simply execute the original plan better. They will recognize when the original plan is no longer the best one and reconfigure transportation, warehousing, inventory, labor, and automation faster than competitors.

The future of logistics is not simply optimized. It is reconfigurable.

The post Logistics Is Becoming Reconfigurable appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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