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Blanks keep rates level; no de minimis air rate collapse yet; US-Houthi truce first step to Red Sea return? – May 7, 2025 Update

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Blanks keep rates level; no de minimis air rate collapse yet; US-Houthi truce first step to Red Sea return? – May 7, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

May 7, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) stayed level at $2,321/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level at $3,386/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 3% to $2,261/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 2% to $3,027/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 5% to $5.28/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 6% to $3.49/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 5% to $1.91/kg.

Analysis

US tariffs on China – introduced and then quickly raised to 145% in early April – are already causing pain to the US logistics market and to shippers whose first goods subject to these tariffs are starting to arrive at US ports.

The tariff hike has driven a sharp drop in China – US container flows with manufacturing in China also being negatively impacted. And even with a 90-day tariff pause for many other US trading partners and the US’s recent easing of terms for auto tariffs, some countries, like Taiwan and Korea where automotive goods make up a significant share of exports to the US, are seeing manufacturing take a hit as well.

Many US importers have paused orders out of China, but shippers (as well as manufacturers) can hold out only so long before consumers will start to see empty shelves or higher prices.

There are reports that some major US retailers have already restarted ordering from China, either out of necessity or anticipation that tariff levels will be lower by the time of arrival as the US and China get closer to direct negotiations. In any case, the reduction in US sourcing from China for the last few weeks will start to be felt soon in fewer May container ship arrivals and lower import volumes.

The pause is also raising concerns over what will happen if US tariffs on China are reduced and volumes quickly rebound. The longer the pause the more disruptive the potential surge – in the form of increased container rates and possible congestion – might be.

In the meantime, the White House continues to express interest in negotiations that would reduce tariffs on a long list of trading partners before the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs ends in July, with the European Union being asked, for example, to buy more US goods as part of their deal.

Despite dropping volumes out of China and some increase in demand out of other countries like Vietnam, transpacific container rates were level this week as carriers have successfully reduced capacity to current volume levels through a significant number of blanked sailings and service adjustments.

Despite persistent congestion at several major container hubs in Europe which typically puts upward pressure on container rates, Asia – Europe spot prices dipped slightly last week, possibly due to an increase in capacity as carriers shift transpacific vessels to these lanes.

Carriers are moving now-excess transpacific capacity to other trades like the transatlantic and Middle East too, which could further complicate a smooth restart of China – US volumes as vessels will be out of position.

With the current capacity management measures in place, despite the recent trade war induced volatility, carriers have succeeded in keeping rates about 50% higher than in 2019 on the major lanes with Red Sea diversions also helping to absorb capacity. But even so, rates on these trades are around 30% lower than last year due to fleet growth and increased competition between the recently launched carrier alliances.

Though a rapid return of container traffic to the Red Sea in the near future is probably still unlikely, President Trump’s announcement yesterday that the US reached a ceasefire deal with the Houthis is the most significant change to the status quo since the group pledged to only target Israeli ships during the Israel-Hamas ceasefire early this year. Houthi statements indicate they will cease targeting US vessels as long the US holds off attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen, but they promise to continue attacks on Israel and it is unclear what all this means for vessels from other countries.

Container carriers won’t return to the Suez until there is clarity and they feel assured of safe passage, but when they do resume traffic on this lane the shorter voyage will – after an adjustment period – release a significant amount of capacity back into the market, increasing the prospect that carriers will face oversupply and strong downward pressure on rates.

Following the US’s suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods last week, Temu announced it will no longer ship goods directly from China to US customers. This move implies a significant shift away from air cargo for China-US e-commerce and to ocean freight and domestic fulfillment in an effort to avoid tariffs as long as possible, reduce costs from air cargo, or shift the tariff burden to domestic sellers.

The B2C e-commerce shift away from air cargo has resulted in a sharp drop in China – US air volumes – as much as two million kilo per day – reflected in a 30% capacity decrease since the suspension. But as e-commerce shipments from these platforms traveled mostly in chartered freighters, as charter and other capacity is being removed from this lane, and as spot demand from other sectors – like many electronics exempt from tariffs for now – may still be relatively strong, spot rates have yet to collapse.

Freightos Air Index China – US rates eased only 5% last week to a still well above normal $5.28/kg. And as Temu and Shein shift some of their focus to other markets, carriers have started moving capacity to other lanes as well. This capacity shift may partly explain China – Europe rates falling to less than $3.50/kg last week, their lowest level since early March. Transatlantic rates of $1.90/kg are more than 20% lower than in late March, possibly from capacity additions as well.

Sebastien Podgorski, VP of Airline Solutions at WebCargo by Freightos, explains that since the lion’s share of the e-commerce effect was felt by charterers, many carriers are actually reporting a recent bump in volumes overall, driven partly by an ocean to air shift from shippers looking to beat tariff roll outs.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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How Supply Chain Technology Providers Can Build Market Visibility with Research, Webinars, Podcasts, and Thought Leadership

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How Supply Chain Technology Providers Can Build Market Visibility With Research, Webinars, Podcasts, And Thought Leadership

Supply chain technology markets are crowded, complex, and changing quickly. Buyers are trying to separate durable capabilities from short-term claims, while solution providers are trying to explain where they fit in a market shaped by automation, AI, labor constraints, global disruption, network complexity, and rising expectations for operational performance.

In that environment, visibility alone is not enough. Providers need credibility, context, and market education. They need ways to reach the right audience with substance, not just promotion.

For many supply chain, logistics, transportation, warehouse automation, planning, visibility, global trade, and decision-intelligence providers, the challenge is not simply getting in front of the market. The challenge is helping the market understand why a capability matters, how it fits into broader operating realities, and what buyers should consider as they evaluate options.

That is where Logistics Viewpoints and ARC Advisory Group can help. Through market research, advisory services, sponsored thought leadership, webinars, podcasts, supplier spotlights, and industry event sponsorships, companies can engage the supply chain market in a more substantive way.

This article introduces a series on how supply chain technology providers can build credibility, visibility, and executive engagement through research, advisory services, sponsored thought leadership, webinars, podcasts, supplier spotlights, and industry sponsorships.

Over the next several posts, this series will look at each path in more detail, including when it is most appropriate, how it supports market education, and how companies can use it to strengthen positioning, credibility, and demand generation.

Market Visibility Has Changed

There was a time when visibility could be built largely through advertising, trade shows, press releases, and sales outreach. Those tools still have a role, but they are no longer sufficient by themselves.

Supply chain executives are operating in a more complex environment. They are evaluating technology in the context of labor availability, network volatility, service expectations, inventory policy, automation strategy, AI adoption, sustainability goals, regulatory change, and global risk. A narrow product message can easily get lost if it is not connected to the larger market conversation.

That is why market education matters. Buyers need help understanding what is changing, why it matters, and how different approaches should be evaluated. Providers that can contribute to that education are better positioned to build trust.

Research Helps Clarify the Market

Research is often the starting point for stronger positioning. A custom market research study can help a company answer specific strategic questions, test assumptions, evaluate market demand, understand buyer priorities, or explore a new category.

Standard market research can provide a broader foundation. It can help companies understand market size, technology adoption, competitive structure, and investment trends. For companies operating in complex supply chain technology categories, research can support product planning, executive alignment, sales enablement, and market messaging.

Annual advisory support adds another layer. It gives companies recurring access to analyst perspective throughout the year, helping them interpret market signals, refine positioning, and stay aligned with industry direction.

Thought Leadership Builds Credibility

Market credibility is not built through claims alone. It is built through perspective. Companies need to show that they understand the problems their buyers face, the tradeoffs involved, and the direction of the market.

Logistics Viewpoints sponsorship, webinars, podcasts, and supplier spotlights can all support this goal in different ways. Sponsorship provides sustained visibility in front of an engaged supply chain audience. Webinars allow companies to explain complex issues in depth. Podcasts create room for executive perspective and market narrative. Supplier Spotlights help clarify company positioning through an analyst-framed discussion of strategy, capabilities, and differentiation.

The strongest thought leadership does not begin with a product pitch. It begins with a market problem. It helps the audience understand the issue, evaluate possible responses, and connect the discussion to broader operational priorities.

Events Create Strategic Market Presence

Some conversations are best developed through direct industry engagement. Events bring together executives, practitioners, analysts, technology providers, and decision-makers around the issues shaping the future of operations.

ARC Industry Forum sponsorship gives companies an opportunity to connect their brand and message with a broader executive audience. For organizations focused on supply chain, logistics, manufacturing, automation, industrial technology, infrastructure, and enterprise transformation, this can be a way to participate in the strategic conversations that influence market direction.

Choosing the Right Path

The right program depends on the business objective. A company looking to answer a specific strategic question may begin with custom research. A team that needs recurring market perspective may benefit from annual advisory support. A provider seeking broader awareness may look at Logistics Viewpoints sponsorship. A company with an educational story may choose a webinar. An executive team with a strong market point of view may choose a podcast. A supplier that needs clearer positioning may pursue a Supplier Spotlight. A company looking for strategic industry presence may consider ARC Industry Forum sponsorship.

These programs are not mutually exclusive. In many cases, the strongest market engagement strategy combines research, advisory insight, thought leadership, and audience activation. Research can clarify the market. Advisory can sharpen the strategy. Webinars and podcasts can educate the audience. Sponsorship can sustain visibility. Supplier Spotlights can reinforce positioning. Industry events can deepen executive engagement.

The common thread is credibility. In a noisy market, buyers respond to clarity, relevance, and substance. Companies that can explain where the market is going, why it matters, and how they help customers respond will be better positioned to earn attention and trust.

For supply chain technology and logistics providers, the opportunity is not just to be seen. It is to be understood.

Explore the Series Resources

For companies evaluating the best way to build market visibility, the following program overviews provide more detail:

Custom Market Research Study
Annual Contract Advisory Service
Standard Market Research Report
Logistics Viewpoints Sponsorship Program
Sponsored Webinar Program
Sponsored Podcast Program
Supplier Spotlight Program
ARC Industry Forum Sponsorship

If you have questions about which type of program fits your company’s market objectives, reach out to me directly at jfrazer@arcweb.com. I’d be glad to discuss where your priorities align with the Logistics Viewpoints and ARC Advisory Group editorial, research, and market engagement calendar.

The post How Supply Chain Technology Providers Can Build Market Visibility with Research, Webinars, Podcasts, and Thought Leadership appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Supply Chain and Logistics News Weekly Round Up June 22nd-26th 2026

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Supply Chain And Logistics News Weekly Round Up june 22nd 26th 2026

The global supply chain landscape is currently defined by rapid transformation and persistent volatility. This week’s developments underscore a shift toward greater operational resilience and adaptation, ranging from the immediate impact of the CBP’s suspension of the de minimis exemption to the mounting pressure of early peak season rate spikes. As shippers navigate these headwinds, we are also seeing structural long-term pivots, including significant federal investments in domestic nuclear manufacturing and a fundamental rethink of Transportation Management Systems—moving away from traditional software toward integrated, outcome-driven operating models. This week’s round-up explores how these forces are reshaping procurement, execution, and strategy for logistics professionals.

The End of De Minimis: CBP Suspends Low-Value Duty-Free Imports

In a monumental shift for cross-border e-commerce, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has implemented an interim final rule that indefinitely suspends the de minimis administrative exemption, which previously allowed shipments valued at $800 or less to enter the country duty-free with minimal clearance. As detailed in the Federal Register Interim Final Rule, all commercial imports arriving via ocean, air, and trucking lanes must now undergo formal or informal customs entry procedures, exposing them to standard tariffs and rigorous compliance checks. The sudden change, also highlighted in the official U.S. Customs and Border Protection Press Release, temporarily spares only the international postal network under a strict, flat-rate tariff structure. For direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands that have built entire supply chains around direct-from-factory shipping, this regulation effectively erases their primary cost advantage overnight. Logistics planners must now scramble to transition from fragmented individual parcel shipping to bulk ocean freight, bonded warehousing, and localized domestic distribution strategies to absorb the sudden surge in operational costs and clearance times.

Ocean Freight Spot Rates Surge as Early Peak Season Collides with Port Congestion

Global container freight markets are experiencing severe pricing pressure as an exceptionally early peak season collides with systemic network constraints. According to the latest Locada Intelligence Report, spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast have jumped by over 23% to cross $6,800 per FEU, while East Coast routes have surged past the $8,100 threshold. This dramatic spike is being driven by sustained shipping diversions away from the Red Sea, acute port congestion, and a preemptive rush by retailers to front-load holiday inventory. With major carriers signaling further general rate increases that could push spot rates toward $10,000 per FEU on key lanes, shippers are urged to diversify their transport modes, secure capacity early, and prepare for a highly volatile and expensive third quarter.

Shoring Up the Grid: DOE Injects $17.5 Billion to Rebuild the Domestic Nuclear Supply Chain

To safeguard the nation’s energy independence and accelerate clean grid transitions, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced a massive $17.5 billion loan initiative aimed at financing the manufacturing of nuclear reactor components. As reported by Mining.com Coverage, the funding targets critical vulnerabilities in the specialized, highly concentrated upstream supply chain, which has historically plagued large-scale energy projects with severe delays. By providing low-cost capital to domestic fabricators of heavy forgings, coolant pumps, and control systems, the initiative seeks to establish a resilient, highly localized manufacturing base. For supply chain managers within the industrial and utility sectors, this federal backing—signified by Westinghouse’s secured allocations outlined in the Cravath Legal Announcement—signals a major push to de-risk high-consequence procurement, shifting reliance away from bottlenecked foreign suppliers.

Beyond Software: Why the Future of TMS is an Operating Model

The traditional software model for Transportation Management Systems (TMS), in which shippers purchase a system of record solely to execute tenders, routing guides, and audits internally, is rapidly shifting. Shippers are increasingly looking beyond basic software features to invest in entire transportation operating models. This evolution reflects a growing operational reality: deploying complex software does not automatically generate logistics excellence, particularly when an organization lacks internal process maturity, a robust carrier strategy, or real-time exception-management capacity. To bridge this execution gap, industry categories are blurring as TMS software, managed transportation services, and digital freight brokerages converge. Modern buyers are shifting focus away from legacy functional checklists and toward integrated solutions that bundle technology with embedded capacity, workflow automation, and concrete outcome ownership.

Autonomous Tendering Is Coming for the Routing Guide

The traditional, static routing guide, long the central control mechanism for freight execution, is struggling to keep pace with highly volatile transportation markets. In response, modern logistics operations are transitioning toward autonomous tendering, redefining the routing guide from a fixed ladder of preferred carriers into a dynamic, policy-driven decision framework. Instead of manually cycling through a sequence of static, pre-negotiated carrier rankings that may be outdated or misaligned with current lane conditions, next-generation systems continuously evaluate live variables. By analyzing real-time capacity, historical acceptance rates, spot market alternatives, service risk, and facility constraints, these platforms can determine which carrier is most likely to deliver the optimal outcome under current conditions. This evolution does not eliminate contract rates or human oversight; rather, it establishes automated guardrails that operationalize procurement expertise at scale, ensuring logistics decisions are optimized for real-world execution rather than historical assumptions.

The post Supply Chain and Logistics News Weekly Round Up June 22nd-26th 2026 appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Carbon Is Becoming a Routing Constraint, Not Just a Reporting Metric

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For many transportation organizations, sustainability reporting has historically been a retrospective exercise. Freight moved through the network, emissions were calculated after the fact, and the results were used for corporate reporting, customer disclosure, or ESG documentation.

That model is changing.

Transportation emissions are beginning to move from the reporting layer into the decision layer. As shippers face growing pressure from customers, regulators, investors, and internal sustainability commitments, carbon data will increasingly influence mode selection, routing, carrier choice, consolidation, and service tradeoffs.

Download the TMS Market Research Executive Summary for a strategic view of how transportation management systems are evolving to support cost, service, and sustainability decisions.

The important shift is this: carbon is becoming a transportation constraint, not just a reporting metric.

From After-the-Fact Measurement to Operational Decision-Making

Most transportation emissions programs began with measurement. Companies needed to estimate the carbon impact of freight activity across modes, lanes, carriers, and regions. That required better data on shipment distance, weight, equipment type, fuel usage, mode, and carrier activity.

Measurement was a necessary first step. But measurement alone does not change operations.

The next phase is embedding emissions data into transportation planning and execution. A TMS that calculates emissions after the shipment is complete provides reporting value. A TMS that uses emissions during planning provides decision value.

That difference matters.

If a transportation planner can compare cost, service, capacity, and carbon before selecting a routing option, sustainability becomes operational. It becomes part of the same tradeoff structure that already governs freight decisions.

The Transportation Tradeoff Is Getting More Complex

Transportation has always involved tradeoffs. Shippers balance cost, service, speed, reliability, capacity, and customer expectations. Carbon adds another variable to an already complex decision environment.

A lower-emissions option may cost more, take longer, require consolidation, shift freight from truckload to intermodal, or require a different carrier. It may reduce flexibility or conflict with customer delivery expectations. This is why sustainability in transportation is difficult. Most companies support the concept until it creates operational compromise.

The TMS will increasingly become the place where those compromises are made visible. Instead of treating carbon as a number calculated after the shipment is complete, the system will need to show how emissions compare against cost, service, capacity, and customer commitments before the transportation decision is made.

Carbon Data Must Be Decision-Grade

For emissions to become a routing constraint, the data must be good enough to support operational decisions. High-level estimates may be acceptable for annual reporting, but they are often insufficient for execution-level planning.

Transportation teams need emissions data that is reasonably accurate by lane, mode, carrier, shipment profile, and equipment type. They also need consistent methodology. If the data is not trusted, planners will ignore it.

This creates a new requirement for TMS platforms: sustainability logic must be explainable. Users need to understand why one option is estimated to produce lower emissions than another. They also need to know whether the difference is material enough to influence the decision.

A system that simply displays a carbon number without context will have limited impact.

The Role of TMS in Sustainable Transportation

The TMS is naturally positioned to operationalize transportation sustainability because it already manages many of the relevant decisions. Mode selection, load consolidation, routing, carrier assignment, pool distribution, appointment planning, backhaul opportunities, empty miles reduction, expedite avoidance, and service-level tradeoffs all influence emissions performance.

Many of the best sustainability improvements in freight are also efficiency improvements. Better consolidation, fewer empty miles, improved routing, and reduced expedites can lower both cost and emissions. But not every sustainability decision pays for itself. Some will require explicit prioritization. That is where TMS configuration and governance become important.

A shipper may set different emissions rules by customer, product, region, business unit, or service level. For example, the system may recommend lower-emissions options when cost and service differences fall within an acceptable tolerance. It may flag high-emissions shipments for review, prioritize intermodal on certain lanes, or calculate the emissions impact of premium freight. This turns sustainability from a corporate aspiration into an operating policy.

The Coming Tension Between Cost, Service, and Carbon

The most interesting market development will not be the ability to calculate emissions. It will be the willingness to act on that information.

If the TMS recommends a lower-emissions route that costs the same and meets the same delivery window, the decision is easy. The harder cases are where sustainability creates tradeoffs. A lower-emissions option may cost more, add a day to transit, require greater planning discipline from the customer, reduce delivery flexibility, or improve corporate emissions performance while increasing local operating complexity.

These questions cannot be answered by software alone. They require policy decisions. The TMS can expose the tradeoff, recommend options, and enforce rules. But leadership must decide how much carbon matters relative to cost and service.

Why This Matters for Buyers

Shippers evaluating transportation technology should treat emissions capabilities as more than a reporting module. The important question is whether carbon can be used inside the planning and execution workflow.

A strong TMS should estimate emissions before shipment execution, compare cost, service, and carbon across routing options, support emissions rules by lane, customer, product, or mode, and help planners evaluate consolidation and mode-shift scenarios. It should also connect emissions performance to carrier scorecards and provide enough transparency for sustainability metrics to be audited and explained.

These capabilities distinguish basic carbon reporting from transportation sustainability management. The value is not simply knowing what emissions were last quarter. The value is understanding which operational changes can reduce emissions in the next planning cycle, the next procurement event, or the next shipment decision.

Sustainability Will Become Part of Transportation Optimization

Carbon will not replace cost or service as the dominant transportation decision factor. Freight still has to move reliably and economically. But carbon will increasingly become part of the optimization model.

That is the real shift.

Sustainability reporting looks backward. Transportation optimization looks forward. The market is moving from one to the other.

The winners will be shippers that use emissions data not merely to explain what happened, but to improve what happens next.

Carbon is becoming a routing constraint. The TMS will be where that constraint becomes operational.

Download the TMS Market Research Executive Summary for a strategic view of how carbon, routing, and transportation decision intelligence are becoming part of the modern TMS market.

The post Carbon Is Becoming a Routing Constraint, Not Just a Reporting Metric appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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