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April 16, 2025 Update

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April 16, 2025 Update

The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.

April 16, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 10% to $2,465/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 3% to $3,647/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 1% to $2,365/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 5% to $2,751/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices fell 1% to $5.43/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 1% to $3.75/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 5% to $2.13/kg.

Analysis

It’s been another headspining week in Trump’s second trade war replete with more escalations, u-turns and confusion and uncertainty for shippers.

The president’s unprecedented reciprocal tariffs on about 60 US trading partners announced on April 2nd went into effect on the 9th, only to be paused for three months a day later. China – which chose to retaliate against the reciprocal tariffs – was excluded from this 90-day pause as a flurry of retaliations and counter retaliations ended with both countries imposing a minimum of 125% tariffs on each other.

Trump further exempted electronics – including smartphones, computers and semiconductors – from all reciprocal tariffs late last week for an unspecified period of time. This carve out includes these types of goods from China, though the president’s 20% tariffs imposed on China earlier in the year as well as any from previous years would still apply.

To start the month the president initiated a trade investigation into semiconductors – and the many electronics that contain them – which could mean the electronics exemption will be short lived and replaced by a separate, global, sectoral tariff in the coming weeks, with an investigation into pharmaceutical trade also underway.

As the 90-day pause was limited to the reciprocal tariffs, it kept the 10% global tariff in place and other tariffs like the 25% levy on Canada and Mexico and 25% tariffs on vehicle imports in effect as well. Trump stated though, that he is considering a short-term exemption for vehicle imports to give companies time to shift operations to the US.

Many countries are already pushing to negotiate with the US during this three month reprieve though no settlements have been announced yet and the EU, for example, reports that talks have not been productive. Trump has called on China to come to the negotiating table as well. With so much apparently subject to change and therefore still up in the air, importers are very hesitant to make any drastic changes to their supply chains just yet.

For freight, last week’s reciprocal tariff roll out resulted in reports of a widespread drop in container bookings out of Asia. The 90-day pause on those tariffs alongside the escalation of US trade hostilities with China however, mean that while shipments out of China remain paused, many of those sourcing from other Asian countries have already started increasing their orders again in an effort to get ahead of possible tariff resumptions in July.

With a minimum of 125% tariffs on all goods out of China remaining in place, there are reports of an extreme drop in container export bookings out of China as shippers wait and see what will happen next, with reports of an increase of blanked sailings on this lane as demand slumps.

Many US importers on this lane had been frontloading goods since the November election in anticipation of tariff hikes. This inventory build up should enable many shippers to hit pause for a while and see where negotiations might lead before deciding their next moves – shifting to other sourcing options or resuming shipments from China and facing higher costs.

For shippers on other lanes, the 90-day reprieve means another window to pull forward goods ahead of possible tariff increases, with reports that frontloading is already underway. This new opportunity for frontloading will likely mean some increased demand for ocean freight on these lanes in the near term, followed by lower demand (and rates) after the deadline passes – another indication that the typical peak season months will be subdued due to demand pulled forward since late last year.

The near term need to blank sailings out of China and possibly increase services from other origins in Asia may prove challenging for ocean carriers and cause delays for shippers, with empty containers concentrated in China likely to pose a challenge too. Transatlantic surcharges announced for May could also point to carrier expectations of frontloading ahead of the July deadline.

The overall Asia – N. America lane-level container rates increased somewhat last week, reflecting the start of the month GRIs, though daily rates so far this week have reversed much of those modest gains. But the likely pull back in demand out of China and increase in demand from other Asian origins may be reflected in diverging rates on the port-pair level.

Freightos Terminal data shows that container rates from China, Taiwan and Vietnam to the Long Beach all climbed sharply following the April 2nd tariff announcements – possibly reflecting the rush to load goods by April 9th when the reciprocal tariffs went into effect. But while rates from Shanghai have dropped 16% since tariffs went into effect, prices from Taiwan and Vietnam have stayed elevated.

In other trade war-related news for ocean freight, the USTR’s proposed port call fees targeting Chinese-made vessels will likely be revised to a less far-reaching version and may not be rolled out for several months, as this measure will be part of the more comprehensive Maritime Action Plan that the president last week requested that federal agencies deliver within seven months.

For air cargo, the looming May 3rd US de minimis cancellation for all Chinese imports may already be resulting in a slow down of e-commerce imports from Chinese platforms like Shein and Temu. Freightos Air Index China – US rates nonetheless remained elevated at close to $5.50/kg last week. The electronics and pharmaceuticals exemptions from reciprocal tariffs, as well as the approaching May 3rd roll out for automotive parts tariffs, could drive some short term increase in air cargo demand for these types of goods, though so far these factors have not been reflected in rate increases.

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution

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Warehouse Orchestration: Solving The Daily Breakdown Between Plan And Execution

In most warehouses today, the problem is not whether work gets done; it is how much effort it takes to keep everything aligned and on track. Every day, there is a breakdown between the plan and executing the plan. Labor plans, inbound schedules, picking priorities, and automation all operate from valid assumptions, but not always the same ones. The gaps between them are filled in real time by supervisors and teams, making constant adjustments. That is what keeps operations running, but it is also what makes them fragile.

It is a challenge many operations recognize. Even with modern systems in place, execution still depends heavily on human coordination. Warehouse orchestration is the shift from managing tasks independently to coordinating the entire operation and ensuring decisions across the system stay aligned as conditions change. The best way to understand what that means in practice is not through a system diagram, but through the lens and experience of the people running the floor.

Consider Maria, a warehouse supervisor responsible for keeping a high-volume operation on track. She is experienced, practical, and steady under pressure, but what she is really managing is not just work; it is complexity.

At any given moment, she balances labor availability, work queues, inbound variability, equipment status, and shifting order priorities. Those inputs are not wrong. They are just not aligned. It is her job to bridge that gap in real time.

A shift that starts “normal” … until it does not

Maria arrives before the floor fully wakes up. Her first stop is not the dock or the pick module; it is yesterday’s reality. What shipped? What did not? Where did the backlog form? Which waves did not behave as the plan assumed? She is not looking for blame; she is looking for drift. Drift is what turns into firefighting later.

Demand shifted over the weekend, but the pick face still reflects last week’s reality. One area is short-staffed; another has idle labor. When the team built the labor plan, it made sense, but the day had already moved on. The team scheduled inbound; however, it is not predictable. Every ETA is a best guess, and how trailers show up rarely matches how they appear on a screen.

Individually, nothing here is catastrophic, but warehouses do not fail all at once. They gradually lose alignment between plan and execution. The team compensates in real time by moving people, reprioritizing work, working around automation delays, and making judgment calls. And the shift “works,” but there is a cost:

Overtime, which did not need to happen.

Detention fees, which show up later.

Service misses, driven by wrong priorities rather than a lack of effort.

Leaders who spend more time reacting than improving.

These challenges are the reality across many operations. Execution is strong, but coordination is fragile.

The real bottleneck: decisions are fragmented

Most warehouses are not short on tools. They have WMS, robotics systems, labor tools, and planning solutions. Each one does its job well, but they do not make decisions together. Each system optimizes its scope based on different priorities or timings. The gaps between them are filled manually by people like Maria. In an environment with less variability, that might work, but in most cases:

Demand changes faster and more frequently.

Labor is less predictable.

Automation introduces new dependencies.

Customer expectations continue to rise.

Under these conditions, static plans, especially labor plans and wave structures, can drift out of sync before the shift is halfway through. That is when the operation starts relying on “manual heroics.” Experienced supervisors keep things running. It is hard to scale, and even harder to sustain.

AI-driven warehouse orchestration: keeping the operation aligned

Warehouse orchestration and the power of AI address this gap. Because it is not just about executing tasks, it is about coordinating decisions across the operation and using intelligence to see, analyze, and recommend actions with full visibility to all the variables. Instead of managing isolated activities, intelligent orchestration continuously aligns:

Labor to demand.

Inbound and outbound priorities.

Work sequencing across zones.

Automation with human workflows.

It does this in real time, as conditions change. Variability is constant, and it is not realistic to eliminate. The goal is to see the risk earlier, respond faster and more consistently, and prevent disruption.

Back to Maria: when the system helps carry the load

Now imagine Maria running that same Monday, but operations now behave like a connected ecosystem, not a collection of islands. Before the shift even starts, she is not just reviewing what happened yesterday. She is looking at a forward-facing view that is already adjusting based on incoming signals. She is getting visibility into risk early before it is a problem. Inbound appointments are not just a schedule; they are a ranked set of trade-offs that balance urgency, detention risk, inventory needs, and outbound commitments. Her decisions are clearer because the system prioritizes them, reflecting business impact. Slotting does not rely on disruptive, periodic re-slot projects that leave the pick face to decay. Instead, optimization and learning continuously shape placement, folding the highest value moves into natural replenishment windows and explaining the “why” in business language.

And during the shift, when one area starts falling behind, Maria does not have to guess the best move. She can see the impact of her options:

Shifting labor.

Reprioritizing tasks.

Adjusting sequencing.

Instead of relying on instinct and experience alone, she has visibility into how decisions affect the entire operation. She is still in control, but the system is helping her avoid problems instead of chasing them. And that changes how the shift feels. It is not static; it is dynamic, but stable.

The key ingredients: unified data, SaaS, AI & ML, connected systems

Behind the scenes, this comes down to unified data, SaaS, AI, ML, and systems that work together. When you connect your warehouse systems, add real-time operational signals and visibility to systems outside of the warehouse, and apply AI and ML for speed and precision, you are working from a single source of truth and an interconnected ecosystem of systems. As a result, users make decisions with a broader context. Then the operation starts to learn; outcomes inform future decisions, improving how the system responds over time. And now, humans are not the only thing holding the performance together.

Why this matters right now

For supply chain leaders, this is not only about efficiency. It is about operating in a world where volatility is constant. Across industries, the specifics vary, but the challenges are consistent:

Handling demand swings without inflating labor costs

Scaling operations without scaling complexity

Maintaining service levels under pressure

The operations that succeed are the ones that do not just react faster; they are the ones that operate in alignment.

The shift ahead

A single, modern technology will not define the future of warehouse management. It will be defined by how well operations coordinate across people, systems, and workflows in real time. That is what intelligent warehouse orchestration enables. It turns the warehouse from a collection of well-run processes into a connected system that can adjust continuously. Because in the end, the goal is not just to execute the plan. It is to keep the plan from breaking when the shift starts.

By Tammy Kulesa
Senior Director, Solution & Industry Marketing, Blue Yonder

Tammy is the Senior Director of Solution and Industry Marketing, leading go-to-market strategy and thought leadership for Blue Yonder Cognitive Solutions for Execution, and the LSP Industry. With over 20 years of experience in technology marketing and nearly a decade focused on retail, logistics, and supply chain, Tammy brings a deep understanding of the operational and strategic challenges facing today’s supply chain leaders. A passionate advocate for innovation and collaboration, Tammy has a proven track record of connecting market needs with transformative solutions.

The post Warehouse Orchestration: Solving the Daily Breakdown Between Plan and Execution appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action

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Supply chain AI cannot stop at better insight. To create operational value, AI recommendations must connect to workflows, execution systems, approval paths, and measurable outcomes.

Artificial intelligence is quickly becoming part of the supply chain technology conversation. Vendors are adding copilots, recommendation engines, autonomous agents, and predictive analytics to planning, transportation, warehousing, procurement, and visibility applications. The promise is clear: better decisions, faster responses, and more adaptive operations.

But there is a critical distinction that supply chain leaders need to keep in view. An AI system that identifies a problem is not the same as an AI system that helps solve it.

A demand-planning model may identify a likely stockout. A transportation model may flag a lane disruption. A supplier-risk model may detect a deteriorating delivery pattern. Those are useful insights. But unless the system can connect that insight to an action pathway, the burden still falls on the planner, transportation manager, procurement team, or customer service group to decide what happens next.

That is where many AI deployments will either create real value or stall out.

For a deeper look at the architecture behind operational AI, including A2A, MCP, RAG, Graph RAG, and connected decision systems, download the full white paper: AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution.

Insight Is Not Execution

Supply chains do not run on insight alone. They run on orders, shipments, purchase orders, inventory moves, carrier tenders, production schedules, warehouse labor plans, customer commitments, and exception workflows.

A recommendation that remains in a dashboard is not yet operational AI. It is decision support. Decision support can be valuable, but it does not fundamentally change the operating model unless it becomes part of the execution process.

The question is not simply, “Can the AI make a recommendation?” The better question is, “Can the organization act on that recommendation in a controlled, auditable, and timely way?”

For example, if an AI system predicts that a regional distribution center will run short of inventory, several action pathways may be available. The company might expedite inbound supply, rebalance inventory from another facility, substitute a product, modify customer allocation rules, or adjust promised delivery dates.

Each action has a cost, a service implication, and a governance requirement.

Operational AI must understand those pathways. It must also know which actions it can recommend, which it can execute automatically, and which require human approval.

The Execution Layer Matters

This is why integration with core execution systems is so important. AI cannot operate effectively if it sits outside the systems where work is actually performed.

For supply chain AI to become operational, it must connect to transportation management systems, warehouse management systems, order management systems, ERP, procurement platforms, supplier portals, customer service workflows, and control tower environments.

Without these connections, AI may diagnose problems faster, but it will not necessarily resolve them faster.

The difference is material. An AI assistant that says, “This shipment is likely to miss its delivery appointment,” is useful. An AI-enabled workflow that identifies the delay, calculates downstream service risk, recommends a carrier alternative, checks cost thresholds, initiates an approval workflow, and updates customer service is much more powerful.

That is the move from analytics to operational intelligence.

Human-in-the-Loop Still Matters

This does not mean every AI recommendation should become an automated action. Supply chain decisions often involve tradeoffs among cost, service, risk, inventory, and customer relationships. Many require judgment.

The more practical model is tiered autonomy.

Low-risk, high-frequency actions may be automated. Moderate-risk decisions may require planner approval. High-impact exceptions may require escalation to a manager or executive.

This is not a weakness. It is a design requirement.

A well-architected operational AI system should know when to act, when to recommend, and when to escalate. It should also capture the outcome so the system can learn whether the decision improved performance.

Closed-Loop Learning Is the Real Prize

The most important capability may not be the first recommendation. It may be the feedback loop that follows.

Did the expedited shipment prevent the stockout? Did the alternate supplier meet the delivery date? Did the inventory transfer protect service without creating a shortage elsewhere? Did the customer accept the revised promise date?

These outcomes should not disappear into operational noise. They should feed back into the intelligence layer.

That is how AI becomes more than a static recommendation tool. It becomes a learning system embedded in the daily operating rhythm of the supply chain.

What This Means for Buyers

Supply chain leaders evaluating AI-enabled software should press vendors on action pathways. The relevant questions are straightforward.

Can the system connect recommendations to execution workflows? Can it distinguish between automated, approved, and escalated actions? Can it operate across functions, not just inside one application? Can it create an audit trail? Can it learn from outcomes?

The vendors that answer these questions well will move beyond AI features. They will become part of the operating architecture.

The next phase of supply chain AI will not be won by the tool that produces the most impressive recommendation. It will be won by the systems that help companies act faster, with more control, better context, and measurable outcomes.

The post How Operational AI Turns Supply Chain Recommendations into Action appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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