Weekly highlights
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) stayed level.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 6%.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 1%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 3%.
China – N. America weekly prices increased 9%.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 1%.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 12%.
Analysis
Even with more container vessels routing back through the Red Sea on Asia – Europe services, and estimations of slumping post-peak demand, carriers have been able to push rates up 10% to N. Europe and 23% to the Mediterranean over the past month.
Prices ticked up 3% last week to $4,375/FEU to the Mediterranean and were about level at $3,595/FEU to N. Europe. Congestion in N. Europe hubs, as well as some lingering backlogs in the Far East may be helping put some degree of upward pressure on rates, with a recent one-day port worker union strike across many ports in Europe as well as other regions, possibly adding to backlogs.
Carriers planned GRIs of $1,000 – $1,500/FEU for these lanes to start the month and additional increases for mid-November. Daily rates so far this week have stayed flat, but the coming days will indicate if carriers go through with the price hikes and if they’ll succeed, with some forwarders skeptical that market conditions will support further increases.
Even with transpacific rates still at peak levels, carriers have GRIs of $2,000 – $3,000/FEU set to start the month for these lanes as well, though here too rates so far this week have not climbed and some forwarders think more increases are unlikely as this trade finally enters slow season. East Coast rates cooled 6% compared to last week’s bump, but are still $200/FEU higher than two weeks ago at about $9,900/FEU, with West Coast prices about level since climbing to the $8,300/FEU range in September.
Asia – Europe rates are climbing relative to September, but from July to September prices fell $2,000 – $3,000/FEU on these lanes, about back to their pre-peak season baseline in mid-May. Meanwhile, the surprising rate resilience on the transpacific – including post-Golden Week, with prices currently about $5,500/FEU higher than before peak season – and the relatively short amount of time left until demand is likely to pick up ahead of Lunar New Year may make it unlikely that transpacific prices will fall back anywhere close to their pre-peak baseline before they climb again.
Another factor that could help prop rates up even as demand cools is the potential port worker union strike at LA/Long Beach. The Local 26 watchmen union, part of the ILWU, has been working under an expired contract since mid-2025 and last week voted to authorize a strike as early as November 1st. Over the weekend though, the union agreed to extend the current contract until 5pm PT on November 4th to allow additional time for negotiations, with federal mediators now involved. A strike by the relatively small union could have an outsized impact on port operations as these workers provide required security services at many of the terminals.
In air cargo, Far East – N. America rates continued to climb last week, increasing 9% to $7.76/kg from the peak season demand bump. This price level – a high for the year – is up 40% compared to this time last year, and is approaching the 2025 peak of $8.00/kg reached early last December. Asia – Europe rates were about level at $4.39/kg last week and are 11% higher year on year, but are well short of highs of about $5.25/kg seen earlier this year, as the market continues to adjust to decreases in e-commerce volumes on this lane.
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