Weekly highlights
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3%.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2%.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 12%.
China – N. America weekly prices increased 3%.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 8%.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 1%.
Analysis
The Houthis – previously in control of the elevated area miles from the Red Sea – recently seized a strategic port and island directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint. This advance, together with last week’s attack on a key Saudi pipeline, marks yet another escalation in Iran-backed steps to threaten energy markets.
Some experts watching oil and bunker fuel prices climb back to May levels, see these recent developments as further evidence that strategies which reduced energy prices from initial war-time highs – mostly by drawing from reserves – are wearing thin and could now lead to an actual fuel crisis.
The Houthis had no difficulty attacking and deterring Red Sea traffic before they took control of the coastal region, but their recent gains mark a solidification of control and an escalation of the maritime threat. Nonetheless – and despite some shipper objections – container carriers continue to increase Suez Canal and southern Red Sea transits.
According to Sea Intelligence estimates, more than a quarter of Asia-Europe capacity will sail via the Red Sea in September, with 35% of Asia – Mediterranean headhaul capacity and 50% to 60% of backhauls passing through the Suez. Asia – N. Europe capacity is returning at a slower pace with 6% of headhaul and 30% of backhaul being restored so far.
War-driven higher fuel costs, and congestion at both Far East origin ports – which may keep dismal on-time rates and backlogs a factor post Golden Week and well into October – and N. Europe hubs may be changing carrier calculus for a Red Sea return. The added speed and effective capacity the new routes provide may already be responsible – together with easing, post-peak demand – for container rate decreases on these lanes.
Asia – N. Europe prices fell 3% to about $4,300/FEU last week while Asia – Mediterranean rates dropped 12% to $4,200/FEU. Daily rates on both lanes have eased to about $3,800/FEU so far this week. The sharper drop for Asia – Mediterranean prices – down $3,000/FEU from a July peak compared to $2,000/FEU for N. Europe rates – may reflect the higher rate of Red Sea capacity restoration on this lane. That, even with demand reductions and Red Sea transits, prices on these lanes remain respectively more than 20% and 50% higher than before peak season began in mid-May points to the role congestion continues to play in container rate dynamics.
Transpacific container rates meanwhile ticked up last week, remaining at peak levels as demand strength – together with Far East congestion – is keeping pressure on spot prices. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import volume report projects October arrivals to fall 9% compared to September, with a further drop in November, suggesting that demand is already easing and should ease further soon. Port congestion – as well as blanked sailings over the holiday stretch – could nonetheless mean rates will stay quite elevated even as demand cools. While most carriers do not seem to be planning October increases, CMA CGM announced sharp PSSs especially for S. Asia – US lanes.
In air cargo, UK operations continue to recover from an air traffic control system outage that grounded thousands of flights a week ago. Overall the Freightos Air Index global benchmark is down 5% from recent, possibly typhoon-related levels, and has decreased 15% from levels hit early on in the Iran war. But rates remain 25% higher than a year ago as jet fuel costs stay high.
Far East – N. America prices climbed 3% to $6.52/kg last week and rates to Europe increased 8% to $5.25/kg. Despite global volume growth so far this year, some observers do not expect a particularly strong Q4 peak season. This stance is due partly to non-seasonal, AI-related hardware being a big driver of volumes, and limited to only some lanes – particularly, Taiwan, South Korea and S. East Asia to US corridors. On these lanes, however, some forwarders expect capacity to be tight over peak season, and even push some volumes to ocean or sea-air options.
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