Weekly highlights
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 11%.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 1%.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 8%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 7%.
China – N. America weekly prices increased 6%.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 2%.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices increased 4%.
Analysis
The Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz initiative stirred some optimism last week of renewed traffic through the waterway sometime soon. But Iran’s recent, escalated, list of demands of the US – including a ban on US vessels, transit fees, and reparations for damage from US strikes – in order to make it happen has mostly dashed the renewed hopes and pushed the situation back to the familiar war time status quo of Iranian attacks, a US blockade and minimal transits.
The last few weeks have seen attacks extended via Iranian proxies to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi ports in the Red Sea and even Egypt. Nonetheless, some container carriers have expanded or restarted some Red Sea transits paused more than once since the start of the war.
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The early start to ocean peak season is translating into the anticipated early come down on Asia-Europe lanes. Carriers are increasing blanked sailings for August and cancelling or reducing planned mid-month rate increases, and spot rates are falling as well. Prices have eased about $1,000/FEU and 15% to both N. Europe and the Mediterranean since peaks in early July. Last week’s averages decreased 8% compared to the week before to about $5,000/FEU to N. Europe and $6,000/FEU to the Mediterranean, with daily rates so far this week continuing to ease slightly.
These prices are back to about mid-June levels but are still around $2,000/FEU higher than before peak season demand started in mid-May. That rates haven’t cooled more significantly just yet could point to demand still elevated but down from its peak, and to still-significant congestion at Far East hubs and disruptions from low water levels in the Rhine keeping some upward pressure on rates as well.
Transpacific rates had been moving in tandem with Asia – Europe prices since the early peak season start in late May. But in recent weeks trends have diverged. East Coast rates which had been about stable since hitting the $9,000/FEU mark in early July are up to a new high of $9,400/FEU so far this week. West Coast prices – which fell through most of July, possibly due more to capacity additions than volume drops in retrospect – have climbed $1,300/FEU since the start of the month to about $7,400/FEU so far this week, though rates are $200/FEU below their July high.
This resilience is taking most observers by surprise. Earlier this summer the NRF had projected a sharp July peak in US container arrivals followed by a significant drop in August and into September, but has now revised that outlook to more even, elevated demand through September. This shift may reflect some shippers – who had been frontloading ahead of the July tariff deadline – extending their ordering now that a sharp duty hike did not materialize. Others who may have been cautious with their peak season ordering due to so much economic uncertainty, may be increasing shipments as consumers continue to show resilience despite elevated rates of inflation.
Freightos Air Index data show rates on some of the major lanes have rebounded in the last few days – especially for shipments in higher weight breaks – possibly reflecting increasing Emergency Fuel Surcharges as jet fuel prices have climbed since the ceasefire collapse. China – N. America prices climbed 6% last week to about $6.00/kg and China – Europe rates increased 2% to $4.11/kg.
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The post Hormuz hopes dashed; Asia – Europe and transpac ocean rates diverge on extended US peak – August 11, 2026 Update appeared first on Freightos.