Weekly highlights
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 13%.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 6%.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 8%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 1%.
China – N. America weekly prices increased 3%.
China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 2%.
N. Europe – N. America weekly prices decreased 3%.
Analysis
Following weeks of gradually escalating Iranian attacks and US retaliations – which started soon after the sides signed the Memorandum of Understanding meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – the status of the key waterway has returned about to where it was before the ceasefire.
Iran asserts that the strait is closed to vessels that do not obtain Iranian permission to pass and that seek to transit via lanes other than its northern channel – and is striking vessels that do not adhere to these terms.
The US will soon resume the blockade of Iran-linked ships that it removed a month ago, and claims the strait is open to vessels that transit through the southern lane along the coast of Oman. The new wrinkle is President Trump’s statement on social media that the US will take over the strait and impose a fee of “20% on all cargo shipped” to offset the associated costs to the US military – though major questions surround the feasibility of both these declarations.
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The ramifications for freight markets are familiar: containers trying to get in and out of the Gulf will continue relying on the longer, congested, and very expensive alternative regional ports and landbridges set up early on in the war.
For the overall container market, the fragile ceasefire had led some carriers to reimplement cautious steps back toward the Red Sea. A full return would likely free up enough capacity to put downward pressure on rates globally, but recent events could mean these shifts will be reversed again.
The broadest impact of the Hormuz closure however will be felt through fuel costs. The June/July increase in Hormuz traffic helped push oil prices back down to their pre-war baseline and even had some observers predicting a supply glut. Normalizing crude had also meant easing (though still elevated) bunker prices.
The renewed closure has quickly pushed oil prices up 10% and back to mid-June levels, with bunker prices up 5%. Though prices in both the crude and refined markets are likely to face more upward pressure, adjustments to the Hormuz closure that energy markets made in the weeks and months following the start of the crisis – and that began pushing oil prices down from earlier war time highs even before the ceasefire – should keep prices from climbing back to earlier highs. But elevated fuel costs will mean some upward pressure on freight rates until bunker prices normalize – which now seems further away.
In the short term though, just as easing bunker prices hadn’t meant cooling freight rates in the last few weeks, increases to fuel prices shouldn’t push spot rates up right now either as peak season demand is the current dominant factor for container prices.
An early start to peak season in mid-May – likely driven by frontloading ahead of coming tariff changes for transpacific shippers, and Q3 Hormuz-related price increases for shippers across the east-west lanes – has kept vessels full and fueled worsening port congestion at major hubs in June and into July. Ocean rates have doubled on these lanes during this stretch as bi-weekly GRIs and PSSs stuck, with Asia – Europe rates about $3,000/FEU higher than just six weeks ago at $5,800/FEU to N. Europe and $7,200/FEU to the Mediterranean.
Transpacific prices are up $4,000/FEU since May, and closed last week at $7,500/FEU for West Coast rates and more than $9,000/FEU for the East Coast. The National Retail Federation’s latest US ocean import report estimates July arrivals will reach 2.47 million TEU, breaking the record for monthly volumes set during the pandemic, and confirming the demand-driven rush that pushed container prices up in June.
Carriers have additional, mid-month increases of as much as $1,000/FEU planned for this week, but there are some indications that peak season demand that started early may already be easing earlier than usual too. Alongside reports that space is beginning to open up and some carriers are offering discounts, the NRF projects August arrivals to drop 10% month on month, with September volumes falling by 10% as well.
Rate behavior in the coming days should indicate if we’re already past the demand peak, though congestion could keep rates elevated for a while even if the peak in new bookings is behind us.
Air cargo rates absent these peak season pressures have remained less volatile as carriers continue to demonstrate agility in adjusting capacity even when there are meaningful changes in demand. The Freightos Air Index global benchmark dipped 2% last week, but remains 25% higher than before the war and a year ago as fuel prices remain elevated.
Reports show some volume decrease for Asia – Europe lanes since the EU de minimis exemption was retired though China – Europe spot rates have not fluctuated dramatically. This stability may also reflect moderate capacity shifts away from this lane, alongside supply increases to S. America as aid is moved to Venezuela following the recent earthquake.
In May, overall demand remained strong with IATA reporting 6% year on year growth for the month, and more indications that AI-related hardware continues to drive a meaningful share of that demand increase.
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The post Hormuz closure pushing fuel costs back up – July 14, 2026 Update appeared first on Freightos.