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Trade deals bring welcome stability, though probably minimal freight shake up for now – July 29, 2025 Update

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Trade deals bring welcome stability, though probably minimal freight shake up for now – July 29, 2025 Update

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July 29, 2025

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Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) stayed level at $2,334/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 7% to $4,113/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 4% to $3,419/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 5% to $3,399/FEU.

Air rates – Freightos Air index

China – N. America weekly prices increased 3% to 5.31/kg.

China – N. Europe weekly prices increased 11% to $3.72/kg.

N. Europe – N. America weekly prices stayed level at $1.77/kg.

Analysis

With the US’s August 1st reciprocal tariff pause expiration date days away, the White House has announced a series of last minute deals with several of its major trade partners including the EU and Japan.

The agreement with the European Union will feature a 15% baseline US tariff on most EU exports – up from the current 10%, but down from the recently threatened 30% level. This rate will apply to automotive exports from the EU as well, which, along with all global automotive exports to the US, have faced 25% duties on vehicles and parts since April and May respectively. The pact may also include a quota-based reduction in US steel and aluminum export tariffs for the EU.
The deal also has the EU committing to significant energy purchases from and investments in the US, and to zero or very low tariffs on most US exports. These terms should start taking effect on August 1st once a joint statement is finalized, though full details and a legally binding text will take more time.

The US-Japan deal similarly sets US tariffs at 15%, including for automotive exports, with Japanese commitments for investment in the US. President Trump has also said that the US has agreements with Vietnam at a 20% tariff rate and with Indonesia and the Philippines at 19%. Including the earlier deal with the UK, the US now has agreements or tentative deals with countries accounting for about 30% of total 2024 US goods imports by value.

The degree of progress on deals with the US’s three largest trade partners – Canada, Mexico and China which make up another 41% of total goods imports according to US Census data – still varies.

Talks with Mexico and Canada – both facing August 1st 30% tariff threats – are ongoing. US and China officials are meeting in Stockholm this week ahead of an August 12th tariff deadline, and talks are expected to result in an additional 90-day extension of the trade status quo following recent progress and deescalation of tensions. US tariffs on China have been set at a 30% baseline since mid-May, with the effective rate much higher for many types of goods already facing first Trump administration tariffs.

From a freight perspective, this year’s tumultuous mix of tariff announcements, pauses and deadlines, has disrupted typical seasonal demand and rate trends as many shippers rushed to frontload goods ahead of these deadlines or, for importers from China, paused activity when duties were sky high. The pull forward was mostly to hedge against the threat of tariffs higher than the interim 10% if negotiations failed. But the last few weeks suggest that even with deals, the US is seeking a tariff range of about 15% to 20%.

Though importers and exporters will not be happy about the tariff increases these deals entail for most goods on these lanes, they’ll likely welcome the certainty and clarity that the agreements provide. Those with inventories elevated from frontloading may not return to typical booking patterns until necessary. After that point though, freight seasonality should return, with those higher tariff costs eventually felt by consumers.

Transatlantic ocean freight volumes were about level with 2024 through April, though automotive tariffs that went into effect in April may have driven the 7% year on year drop that month. And tariffs on auto parts introduced in May could also explain why there did not seem to be much frontloading on the lane when reciprocal tariffs were paused from April through July.

This week’s deal reduces automotive tariffs for EU exports by 10% and could spur some moderate rebound in volumes on this lane. The agreement’s 15% tariff level means most EU exports – though the status of wine and spirits remain unclear – are facing a 5% increase in duties compared to levels since April, and so it is unlikely to spur any sharp near term rebound. Transatlantic ocean container rates have been level at about $1,900/FEU since May.

For transpacific ocean freight, the US’s reduction of tariffs on China from 145% to 30% in mid-May triggered an early and brief peak season surge. Asia – US West Coast rates hit a peak of $6,000/FEU by mid-June but by mid-July had fallen back to April and early May levels of about $2,300/FEU. Prices have remained unchanged since as carriers have removed capacity to meet lower volume levels, making it unlikely carriers will implement planned August GRIs.

Another 90-day extension of the 30% baseline tariff would run through the end of the typical peak season period. This development could spur some shippers who rushed to move goods in May and June or others who were waiting for more clarity to resume peak season bookings, which could push demand and rates up somewhat. But with the significant frontloading to date, the peak of peak season is still likely behind us.

Asia – N. Europe container rates dipped 4% last week to $3,419/FEU, about level with the start of the month but still 45% higher than at the end of May on peak season demand and persistent congestion at several of Europe’s major container hubs. This volume strength and congestion that could get worse as peak season containers continue to arrive could support PSSs of about $500/FEU planned for August by some carriers. Even so, rates that have about leveled off to Europe, and Asia – Mediterranean prices that by last week had fallen 30% from a mid-June high to $3,400/FEU – with rates for both lanes more than 55% lower than a year ago – suggest fleet growth and resulting overcapacity may already be impacting rate trends.

Air cargo volumes out of Japan or the EU to the US could see some bump from the lower tariffs on auto parts. Overall though – as there wasn’t much last minute front loading by air ahead of the deadlines and for most trades tariffs are now higher than a week ago – the air cargo markets, like ocean freight, may not be shaken up much by the recent trade developments.
Freightos Air Index data shows China-US rates increased 3% to $5.31/kg, about level with rates in May and June. Transatlantic prices were unchanged at $1.77/kg and China – Europe rates climbed 11% to $3.72/kg, back to levels seen in June, possibly on some moderate bump ahead of the tariff deadline.

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Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.

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Saudi Arabia’s Logistics Giant Would Be More Than a PIF Portfolio Move

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Saudi Arabia’s reported plan to consolidate port, rail, and shipping assets under the Public Investment Fund is not just an infrastructure story. It reflects a larger shift in global supply chains: logistics networks are becoming instruments of resilience, industrial policy, and geopolitical optionality.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund and one of the main vehicles for executing Vision 2030, is reportedly considering the creation of a national logistics champion by combining parts of its portfolio across ports, rail, and shipping. The assets under discussion could include Bahri, the National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia and one of the Kingdom’s core maritime carriers, along with Saudi Global Ports and Saudi Railway Co. The result could be a larger platform capable of attracting foreign capital, supporting domestic industrial growth, and strengthening Saudi Arabia’s ambition to become a global logistics hub.

The discussions remain preliminary. No final decision has been made, and the final asset mix could change. But the strategic logic is clear. Saudi Arabia is trying to move from owning logistics assets to controlling logistics corridors.

That distinction matters. In a more volatile trade environment, ports, railways, shipping fleets, inland hubs, and data networks are no longer separate pieces of infrastructure. They are part of a national operating system for trade.

Hormuz Has Raised the Stakes

The reported PIF discussions began before the current Middle East crisis, but disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has made the strategic case more urgent. The Strait remains one of the world’s most sensitive maritime chokepoints. Any sustained disruption forces governments, carriers, and shippers to reassess route redundancy, port diversification, and inland alternatives.

That type of shock changes how supply chains are evaluated. The issue is no longer simply port capacity or freight cost. It is route survivability.

For Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea becomes more than a western coastline. It becomes strategic redundancy. East-west rail links, dry ports, inland logistics hubs, and Red Sea gateways all become more valuable when Gulf access is constrained.

This is why a Saudi logistics consolidation would not just be a financial restructuring. It would be a resilience move. A single platform could coordinate flows across ports, rail, maritime assets, and inland distribution nodes more effectively than a fragmented group of separately managed companies.

Vision 2030 Already Points in This Direction

Saudi Arabia’s National Transport and Logistics Strategy explicitly aims to integrate transport modes and logistics services while supporting Vision 2030. One of its stated pillars is to transform the Kingdom into a logistics hub.

That policy backdrop is important. PIF is not acting in isolation. Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Development and Logistics Program also frames logistics as a central part of the Kingdom’s push to become a leading industrial power and global logistics hub.

Logistics fits the Vision 2030 agenda unusually well. It can generate recurring cash flow, support industrial development, attract foreign capital, and improve national competitiveness. It also gives Saudi Arabia a practical way to convert geography into economic power.

The UAE Is the Benchmark

The obvious regional benchmark is the United Arab Emirates. Dubai’s rise as a trade hub was closely tied to DP World and Jebel Ali. Jebel Ali is one of the world’s major port and logistics complexes, with global shipping connections that helped establish Dubai as a regional trade gateway.

Abu Dhabi has built its own logistics-centered growth engine through AD Ports Group, which has become an important contributor to the emirate’s non-oil economy.

Saudi Arabia’s ambition is different in scale. It has a larger domestic economy, deeper industrial ambitions, Gulf and Red Sea access, and a sovereign wealth fund capable of forcing consolidation across major portfolio assets. But the competitive lesson from the UAE is clear: logistics can be a national economic platform, not just a transport service.

Bahri and Rail Matter Because This Is Not Just a Port Story

A Saudi logistics champion would be more credible if it links maritime, rail, and inland logistics assets into an integrated corridor model.

Bahri is central to that logic. The company is the national shipping carrier of Saudi Arabia, with operations across crude oil transportation, chemicals, dry bulk, integrated logistics, and multipurpose cargo.

Saudi Railway Co. would bring a different piece of the system: inland connectivity. Rail becomes strategically powerful when it connects ports, industrial zones, dry ports, and consumption centers in ways that reduce dependency on congested maritime chokepoints.

That combination matters. Ports provide gateways. Shipping provides international reach. Rail provides inland movement. Dry ports and logistics zones provide cargo consolidation, customs clearance, and distribution. The strategic value comes from tying these together into a corridor system.

The Real Prize Is Network Control

The most important logistics companies are no longer just asset owners. They are network orchestrators.

Owning terminals, vessels, rail assets, warehouses, or trucks is valuable. But the higher-margin and more strategic layer is the ability to coordinate those assets across capacity, risk, time, and customer demand.

This is where Saudi Arabia’s plan becomes more interesting for supply chain technology vendors. A national logistics champion would eventually need modern systems across several layers: transport visibility, terminal operations, rail and intermodal planning, customs compliance, risk monitoring, digital twins, AI-assisted planning, exception management, and corridor-level performance analytics.

The physical network is only the first layer. The second layer is the data architecture. The third is decision intelligence.

This aligns with the broader argument in ARC’s AI in the Supply Chain research: the future of logistics depends on connected intelligence across systems, agents, data, and network relationships, rather than isolated software deployments.

What Shippers Should Watch

For shippers, the key question is not whether Saudi Arabia creates another large logistics company. The question is whether it creates a credible alternative routing and distribution platform.

There are four practical issues to watch.

First, can Saudi Arabia turn Red Sea access into dependable corridor capacity? The strategic value of the Red Sea rises when Gulf routes are constrained, but the corridor still needs predictable port performance, inland connectivity, customs efficiency, and carrier participation.

Second, can rail become a true freight backbone rather than a national infrastructure project? Rail becomes strategically powerful when it connects ports, industrial zones, dry ports, and major consumption centers.

Third, can PIF attract international capital without reducing strategic control? The reported possibility of outside investment or an eventual IPO would make governance, transparency, and operating performance more important.

Fourth, can Saudi Arabia build the digital layer required for modern logistics orchestration? Infrastructure can move freight. Digital coordination makes freight networks resilient.

What Technology Vendors Should Watch

For supply chain technology providers, this could become a major regional opportunity, but not as a conventional enterprise software sale.

A Saudi logistics platform of this kind would need systems that support multi-enterprise coordination across ports, rail, carriers, customs agencies, industrial zones, and international customers. The relevant categories include visibility, control towers, global trade management, transport planning, digital twins, integration layers, and AI-enabled exception management.

The requirement would be corridor intelligence: the ability to sense disruption, evaluate alternatives, coordinate capacity, and support decisions across multiple physical and institutional boundaries.

That is a more complex problem than optimizing a private supply chain. It is closer to building a national-scale logistics operating layer.

The Strategic Takeaway

Saudi Arabia’s reported logistics consolidation is best understood as part of a larger global shift. Supply chain infrastructure is being revalued. Maritime chokepoints are being reassessed. Sovereign capital is moving toward assets that can provide recurring returns while strengthening national resilience.

The UAE proved that logistics can be a national growth engine. Saudi Arabia is now attempting to build a version that is larger, more industrially connected, and more explicitly tied to national transformation.

But the test will not be whether PIF can assemble the assets. It likely can.

The test will be whether Saudi Arabia can turn those assets into an integrated, trusted, digitally coordinated logistics network. In the next phase of global supply chain competition, the winners will not simply own ports or vessels. They will control optionality.

The post Saudi Arabia’s Logistics Giant Would Be More Than a PIF Portfolio Move appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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From Functional Software to Decision Architectures: How AI Is Reshaping Supply Chain Technology

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Supply chain technology has traditionally been evaluated by functional category. AI is pushing the market toward a different question: what decisions does the architecture improve, and how directly are those decisions connected to execution?

Supply Chain Software Has Been Organized by Function

The supply chain software market has long been organized around functional categories.

Planning systems support forecasting, supply planning, inventory optimization, and scenario analysis. Transportation management systems support routing, carrier selection, freight execution, and settlement. Warehouse management systems support labor, inventory movement, slotting, and fulfillment. Visibility platforms track shipments and identify disruption. Procurement systems support sourcing, supplier management, and spend control.

These categories remain useful. They reflect real operating domains and real software architectures.

But AI is beginning to change how buyers should evaluate the market.

Download the full ARC Advisory Group white paper, AI in the Supply Chain: From Architecture to Execution, for a deeper framework on how supply chain AI is moving from technical architecture toward decision intelligence, operational execution, and coordinated action across planning, logistics, sourcing, fulfillment, and risk management.

The Question Is Shifting from Function to Decision

The key question is no longer only what function a system supports. The more important question is what decisions it improves.

That is a different lens.

A planning system may improve demand decisions. A visibility platform may improve exception decisions. A TMS may improve routing and carrier decisions. A risk platform may improve sourcing or mitigation decisions. A control tower may improve cross-functional response decisions.

AI is causing these categories to blur because many of the highest-value decisions do not sit neatly inside one functional application.

Consider a late inbound shipment.

A transportation system may detect the delay. A visibility platform may estimate the arrival impact. An inventory system may identify stockout exposure. A planning system may update the supply plan. A customer service system may adjust commitments. A procurement system may evaluate alternate supply. Finance may need to understand cost implications.

The business decision is not confined to one software category.

It is a decision architecture problem.

AI Is Blurring Traditional Software Boundaries

That distinction is becoming central to the next phase of supply chain technology.

Vendors are embedding AI into planning, execution, visibility, procurement, and risk platforms. Their starting points differ, but the direction is consistent: they are trying to support decisions that cross functional boundaries.

This creates a new way to evaluate market structure.

One decision domain is procurement and commercial orchestration. Here, AI supports supplier selection, negotiation strategy, risk assessment, contract awareness, and commercial tradeoffs.

Another is network planning and resilience. This includes decisions about inventory placement, capacity, sourcing exposure, production constraints, and disruption mitigation.

Another is logistics and fulfillment execution. AI supports routing, carrier selection, warehouse prioritization, service recovery, and customer commitment decisions.

Another is exception management and resolution. This may be the most immediate domain for operational AI because exceptions require fast interpretation, prioritization, ownership, and coordinated response.

These are not merely software modules. They are decision environments.

Buyers Need a Different Evaluation Framework

That matters for buyers.

A company evaluating AI-enabled supply chain technology should ask several questions.

What decision is this system designed to improve? What data and context does it use? Does it generate insight, recommend action, or initiate execution? Can the recommendation be audited? Does the system understand operational constraints? How does it connect to ERP, WMS, TMS, planning, procurement, and customer-facing systems? What happens when the AI recommendation is rejected or overridden?

These questions are more useful than asking whether a vendor has AI.

Nearly every vendor now has an AI story. The more important issue is whether that AI improves a decision that matters.

This is particularly important as AI moves closer to execution. A recommendation about a forecast has one level of consequence. A recommendation that changes inventory allocation, carrier selection, customer commitments, or supplier sourcing has another. The closer AI gets to operational consequence, the more important context, governance, auditability, and integration become.

AI capability alone is not enough. The capability has to fit the decision environment.

Market Maps Should Reflect Decision Architectures

This shift also has implications for market maps and competitive positioning.

Traditional categories will not disappear, but they will become less sufficient. A vendor may start in visibility but move toward exception orchestration. A planning vendor may move toward autonomous decision support. A procurement platform may become a supplier intelligence system. A logistics execution provider may become a broader decision coordination layer.

The market is moving from functional software toward decision architectures.

This does not mean every platform will become a full decision intelligence layer. Nor does it mean buyers should abandon functional depth. Operational execution still requires robust systems of record and systems of execution.

But AI creates value when these systems are connected to a decision layer that can interpret changing conditions and coordinate action.

That is the structural shift.

In the next phase of supply chain AI, competitive advantage will come less from isolated features and more from the ability to improve decisions across functions. The strongest architectures will connect signals, context, reasoning, governance, and execution.

The Buyer Question Is Changing

For technology buyers, the evaluation framework must change.

The question is not simply: what does the software do?

The better question is: what decisions does it make better, faster, more reliable, and more executable?

That question will increasingly define how supply chain technology markets are understood. It will also define which vendors are positioned as functional application providers and which are positioned as decision architecture providers.

AI is not eliminating the traditional supply chain software stack. ERP, WMS, TMS, planning, procurement, visibility, and risk platforms will remain essential. But the market is moving toward architectures that can connect those systems around real decisions.

That is where the next phase of value will emerge.

Supply chain technology is no longer only about managing functions. It is increasingly about improving the decisions that connect those functions.

That is the shift from functional software to decision architectures.

The post From Functional Software to Decision Architectures: How AI Is Reshaping Supply Chain Technology appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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Weaving Trust and Transparency into the Industrial Ecosystem

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This is the final blog in a series that reviews discussions that occurred during ARC Advisory Group’s 2026 Industry Leadership Forum. Specifically, it details a keynote conversation held with senior executives from Rolls-Royce, BTX Precision, and MxD. The session was entitled The New Fabric of Demand: Modernizing Collaboration and Transparency for Real-time Production. Read the full four-part series here: Connected Manufacturing Networks and the New Supply Chain – Logistics Viewpoints

Pillar 3: The Agile Manufacturing Partner

Over the last few weeks, I’ve explored the fundamental shift required to survive in today’s non-linear industrial landscape, breaking down the distinct roles that have emerged in hyperconnected, digital economies. I’ll conclude this blog series by looking at the Agile Partner, the execution engine that makes this entire ecosystem function.

The first pillar, the Market Signal, defines the parameters of value. The second, the Demand Architect, orchestrates the structural response. The third and final pillar in the new fabric of demand is the Agile Manufacturing Partner, the critical link that connects supply chain dynamics directly to the shop floor. This pillar consists of modern manufacturers who fully understand that competitive advantage is currently being completely redefined and measured by ecosystem responsiveness. During the presentation portion of my Wednesday keynote at the 30th annual ARC Industry Leadership Forum, Jamie Goettler of BTX Precision provided a perfect example of the Agile Partner in practice.

Trust as a Technical Requirement

Historically, industrial partnerships were often cemented through long-term agreements. Due to their rigid, ongoing structure, they inevitably layered in operational friction, perhaps unintentionally, as a means to wall off intellectual property (IP) and guard competitive expertise from being exposed. Today, however, that is changing. Now, trust has evolved from a soft, intangible benefit into a hard technical requirement.

One of BTX’s top customers recently adopted an AI-driven “should cost” system. To make this work, BTX feeds the customer’s software highly guarded operational parameters, detailing exactly how long specific processes take, what their overhead costs are, and even their margin positions. As a revenue officer, Jamie admitted that sharing margin data was traditionally unthinkable.

Yet, by embracing this level of contextualized data transparency, BTX allows the customer to instantly run 3D models through the system and generate highly accurate pricing and capacity checks. This fundamentally shortens the supply chain, turning a protracted, adversarial negotiation into a rapid, secure exchange of value. As the Agile Partner, BTX Precision recognizes that providing a transparent “lens” into their operations is the only way to meet the compressed speed of modern demand.

Focusing on Practical Agility

It is easy to assume this level of integration requires massive, expensive IT overhauls. While it does require change, that expectation needs to be tempered by reality. As Berardino Baratta of MxD mentioned during the panel, 75 percent of US manufacturers have fewer than 20 employees. Most of these critical sub-tier suppliers do not have IT departments or CISOs, and many still rely on paper and spreadsheets.

For an Agile Partner, modernization cannot mean adopting technology just for the sake of having it. As I have emphasized when discussing industrial AI bloat, enterprises must focus on innovation and value on investment (VOI), rather than just traditional efficiency and ROI. BTX applied this pragmatic approach directly to its quoting process. Instead of mandating a monolithic ERP system across all of its newly acquired, decentralized businesses, it targeted the specific, frustrating bottleneck of quoting productivity. By moving from a disorganized system of manila folders to a cloud-based AI and machine learning tool, it accelerated its quoting speed by six times. This outcome-based approach secures internal buy-in because it makes the employees’ lives demonstrably easier while driving immediate business value.

Aligning Humans in the Ecosystem

You cannot build a resilient, non-linear fabric of demand without aligning the humans who operate it. In the rush to deploy new technologies, it is a critical mistake to try and replace human knowledge with artificial intelligence too quickly. True digital transformation leaders understand that they must actively align incentives and be brutally transparent about their objectives.

Berardino shared an example of this involving union shops. When an initiative proposed putting cameras and sensors on manufacturing workers to build digital twins, the initial union response was refusal. However, when the stakeholders were transparent that the true goal was to monitor worker fatigue and reduce shop-floor injuries, the union recognized the aligned incentives and immediately asked how they could help. When an enterprise treats its partners and people as secure, integrated extensions of its own success, resistance transforms into collaboration.

In a non-linear digital economy, isolation is a strategy for obsolescence. The new fabric of demand is tightly woven from these three pillars: an enterprise actively reading the market signal, demand architects creating a supportive structure, and agile partners executing using transparent collaboration. Collectively, the ecosystem then achieves a compounding competitive advantage that no legacy methods can touch.

The post Weaving Trust and Transparency into the Industrial Ecosystem appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints.

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